2016 MLB Draft thread, June 9 -11: Jays take TJ Zeuch 21st overall

[Schad]

It's less than a month away. This year, it will take place on a Thursday - Saturday, thus allowing people the chance to spend hours Googling all of the 18th rounders for whom almost no information exists without it affecting their productivity at work. Yay.

Jays will have a bonus pool of $6,603,300, 20th out of 30 teams in spending allotment. Theywill pick:

1st round: 21st overall.
2nd round: 57th overall (received as compensation for the unsigned Brady Singer).
2nd round: 66th overall.
3rd round: 102nd overall.
4th round on: every 30 picks thereafter (132, 162, 192, etc).

Baseball America's top 100:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/may-5-2016-top-100-draft-prospects/#q27g9Zr97ZGsYjla.97

Overall, it's a draft with a tonne of promising pitchers, particularly high school pitchers...Alex Anthopolous is somewhere in LA, biting his lower lip and struggling to contain himself.

Some players who might be available around our pick:

Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt. Older brother of Justus, nephew of Gary, gets Marcus Stroman comps because he's a shortish (though taller than Stroman), athletic right-hander who lives in the mid 90s and has good secondary stuff. Doesn't quite have Stroman's command, however, though he has made strides. Got his (first?) TJ over with at a young age, in 2013.

Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford. Son of Cal, he was projected as a top pick in this draft until requiring TJ last season. He is still recovering, and has not pitched in a game since the injury. May not pitch competitively before the draft, even...some risk, considerable reward. Tweets about the 6ix.

Nolan Jones, SS, HS. Big for a shortstop, can hit, defensive position as a pro up in the air. Not because he lacks any talent on that side; great arm, good range, and some think he could play an adequate-to-good 2B/SS/3B. Possible signability concerns, particularly for a team like the Jays with a smaller bonus pool.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, Vanderbilt. Switch-hitting outfielder with a good overall skillset, might profile in CF. Power has really developed this year, which might ultimately move him into an earlier portion of the first round.

Jared Horn, RHP, HS. Prototypical pop-up righty: big kid, big fastball, promising secondary stuff, athletic. Needs polish, but he's very young for his class: he won't turn 18 until July, a month after the draft.

[s e n s i]

i opened this thread hoping for some outlandish baseball names and i am disappoint

[Schad]

i opened this thread hoping for some outlandish baseball names and i am disappoint

It might be the worst draft for names in recent memory. Akil Baddoo is probably the pick of the top 200, and he would barely have merited a mention in 2014 or 2015.

[Wally West]

Nice to see you back and posting on this board Schad. I think it's been awhile since I posted here. Been focusing my energy on NBA draft prospects on the Raptors board but was gonna start this thread on Wednesday when Keith Law posted his first mock but glad you beat me to it. Will just juggle both from now on.

Off the top of my head, Cat Quantrill looks very intriguing. Don't really mind that he might not throw a pitch until draft time. If he fills out his frame, could see him throwing in the upper 90's with his fastball if his arm doesn't fall off to go along with his above average to plus curve and changeup. Forrest Whitley, Braxton Garrett, Zach Collins and Anfernee Grier also look pretty promising. Wonder if Anfernee's parents were basketball fans growing up..

[-MetA4-]

I haven't really looked much into draft yet, but HS OF Will Benson is someone that immediately intrigues me with his size (6'6 215+), athleticism, and big raw power. It looks like he's got some bat speed as well.

[-MetA4-]

Got into Frankie Piliere's draft chat:

Comment From Kirill
Have you heard any rumors about how/if the Jays' draft strategy will change with Shapiro/Atkins in charge?

Frankie Piliere:
Still hearing them linked to a lot of prep arms. Whitley's name has come up, as has Matt Manning. I think where they pick suits sticking with a prep arm as well. Cal Quantrill rumors around too but not sure how much there is to those.

[Wally West]

Here's who Keith Law's got us picking in the 1st Round in his first mock of the year.

21. Toronto Blue Jays Bo Bichette, IF Lakewood (St. Petersburg, Florida) High School
Dante Bichette's son was very good last summer and has continued to mash this spring, though he's clearly not a shortstop. He'll have to find a new position in pro ball.

[-MetA4-]

Here's who Keith Law's got us picking in the 1st Round in his first mock of the year.

I was going to post that but forgot. 21st overall is noticeably early for Bichette. In the past, Keith Law has been correct about players who we like, but he often seems to misjudge what round we're targeting them in (ie: he mocked both Aaron Sanchez and Sean Reid-Foley as picks for us, but both were in the first round wherein we ultimately acquired both players with later picks in reality). Unless we're planning on an under-slot deal with Bichette, I'd bet that we like him more for one of our two second round picks as opposed to 21st overall.

The big takeaway I see is that we can probably start alleviating concerns about our draft strategy shifting considerably.

[Wally West]

Got into Frankie Piliere's draft chat:

Comment From Kirill
Have you heard any rumors about how/if the Jays' draft strategy will change with Shapiro/Atkins in charge?

Frankie Piliere:
Still hearing them linked to a lot of prep arms. Whitley's name has come up, as has Matt Manning. I think where they pick suits sticking with a prep arm as well. Cal Quantrill rumors around too but not sure how much there is to those.

I was going to post that but forgot. 21st overall is noticeably early for Bichette. In the past, Keith Law has been correct about players who we like, but he often seems to misjudge what round we're targeting them in (ie: he mocked both Aaron Sanchez and Sean Reid-Foley as picks for us, but both were in the first round wherein we ultimately acquired both players with later picks in reality). Unless we're planning on an under-slot deal with Bichette, I'd bet that we like him more for one of our two second round picks as opposed to 21st overall.

The big takeaway I see is that we can probably start alleviating concerns about our draft strategy shifting considerably.

Yeah I didn't know what to make of Bichette at 21 til you brought up Keith's track record of getting guys we're targeting right but only to nab them at later picks. Bichette's a wild card as there's different opinions of him in the industry. I don't know if he hits in pro ball. Is he a hacker like his bro? Despite that, this kid can flat out mash at the high school level. We're banking on upside here if he can fix his swing.

[-MetA4-]

Jim Callis' first mock draft:

21. Blue Jays: Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission (Kan.) East HS
Wentz could be the toughest sign among the seven best high school arms, and he'd earn more than Toronto's pick value ($2,285,100) if he can find his way to a big-pool team after the first round. That still may not deter the Blue Jays, who have taken eight prep pitchers in the first or supplemental first round this decade. After Wentz, there are more first-round-worthy high school hurlers in California right-handers Jared Horn and Kevin Gowdy and Texas southpaw Kyle Muller, though there may not be room for them in the first 34 picks. Toronto also likes Georgia prep outfielders Trammell and Brandon Marsh.

[Wally West]

Jonathan Mayo's First Mock

21. Blue Jays: Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran Christian School, Kennesaw, Ga.
The Blue Jays might go high-upside pitcher if someone like Manning were around. Instead, a toolsy outfielder like Trammell, who had some initial helium that has slowed down a bit now, is the choice.

[Wally West]

Baseball America Posted It's 4th Mock Draft Today As Well

21. BLUE JAYS: The Jays are in the market for college players with their first pick, and this is likely Burdi’s floor in the first round. Their search for a college bat likely takes them to the two SEC center fielders in Florida’s Buddy Reed and Vanderbilt’s Bryan Reynolds. The power-speed-patience combination of Reynolds should move quickly through the minors. PICK: Bryan Reynolds, of

[Wally West]

Keith Law's 2nd Mock Draft Out Yesterday

21. Toronto Blue Jays: Forrest Whitley, RHP Alamo Heights (San Antonio) High School
I've heard them more with high school guys than college but also that they're not excluding any group.

Still haven't really looked into this draft as I would like but this guy jumped out at me as someone we could draft. 6'7, touches 97 with and easy delivery to go along with a plus curveball and above average to plus changeup with average command? Sign me up.

[CrookedJ]

I'm curious about the drafting style of Shapiro. I get the impression he goes for safer picks that AA would have, far less likely to go after top flight HS arms that won't be signed. In the past 10 seasons he only drafted 3 HS players in the first rd , and all of them signed.

What are thoughts on how this would affect the type of guys we go after? I also read that the Jays scouting department is massive compared to what Shapiro had in Cleveland, and I suspect there has been very little turnover on the ground level, so we will have a lot of the same scouts making the reports, but different decisions made at the top.

[-MetA4-]

I'm curious about the drafting style of Shapiro. I get the impression he goes for safer picks that AA would have, far less likely to go after top flight HS arms that won't be signed. In the past 10 seasons he only drafted 3 HS players in the first rd , and all of them signed.

What are thoughts on how this would affect the type of guys we go after? I also read that the Jays scouting department is massive compared to what Shapiro had in Cleveland, and I suspect there has been very little turnover on the ground level, so we will have a lot of the same scouts making the reports, but different decisions made at the top.

1) Shapiro's "drafting style" is irrelevant as he's not in a position to influence selections.
2) His safe/college "style" didn't even last in Cleveland, as their draft strategy has shifted dramatically in recent years. Last year's Indians at the top draft looks like a carbon copy of a prototype "Blue Jays draft".
3) With the same key decision makers all still in place; I wouldn't expect much change in draft philosophy.

[Schad]

I'm curious about the drafting style of Shapiro. I get the impression he goes for safer picks that AA would have, far less likely to go after top flight HS arms that won't be signed. In the past 10 seasons he only drafted 3 HS players in the first rd , and all of them signed.

What are thoughts on how this would affect the type of guys we go after? I also read that the Jays scouting department is massive compared to what Shapiro had in Cleveland, and I suspect there has been very little turnover on the ground level, so we will have a lot of the same scouts making the reports, but different decisions made at the top.

1) Shapiro's "drafting style" is irrelevant as he's not in a position to influence selections.
2) His safe/college "style" didn't even last in Cleveland, as their draft strategy has shifted dramatically in recent years. Last year's Indians at the top draft looks like a carbon copy of a prototype "Blue Jays draft".
3) With the same key decision makers all still in place; I wouldn't expect much change in draft philosophy.

Complete with the min/max bonus shenanigans that AA loved (and which have been increasingly popular since): they got a couple of overslot kids by freeing up about $300k, via $5000 bonuses to their 9th and 10th rounders.

[satyr9]

I think we tend to underestimate the impact the collection of people underneath the president and GM have. For instance, there's been lots of little activity deals already this year (Paredes, Grilli, etc...) that feel like AA business as usual to me, but I think you have to give credit to the guys who report. When they come with confidence about their take and advocate for something to happen, it's much easier to pull the trigger whether you're AA or Shapiro and I'm hoping we'll see the same thing at the draft. If they're all working hard and doing their best work, I think it becomes much easier for the management to make gutsy calls and to push the envelope to try and acquire the tough signs, as they have the confidence that their staff got them the most complete picture they could have.

[Santoki]

I think we tend to underestimate the impact the collection of people underneath the president and GM have. For instance, there's been lots of little activity deals already this year (Paredes, Grilli, etc...) that feel like AA business as usual to me, but I think you have to give credit to the guys who report. When they come with confidence about their take and advocate for something to happen, it's much easier to pull the trigger whether you're AA or Shapiro and I'm hoping we'll see the same thing at the draft. If they're all working hard and doing their best work, I think it becomes much easier for the management to make gutsy calls and to push the envelope to try and acquire the tough signs, as they have the confidence that their staff got them the most complete picture they could have.

AA has said on multiple occasions that he doesn't really do any scouting at all. He just goes with the guys that his team recommends. I don't know how our scouting department was left and how Shapiro/Atkins interact and delegate decisions, but GMs get way too much credit and blame for the drafting of individual players. You can assess them as a whole or how the organization is structured but I think a lot of people assume that the GM is down there choosing which guys to draft. They just don't have the time to run a major league club and scout kids in college, highschool and Latin America. They are relying entirely on the information and advice of their team. And it seems as though Shapiro/Atkins and the remaining Jays scouts both have pretty good records of that so I'm not worried at all. Even if the picks don't get to the Jays they're always assets along the way which is pretty much how AA always operated.

[Skin Blues]

I'm curious about the drafting style of Shapiro. I get the impression he goes for safer picks that AA would have, far less likely to go after top flight HS arms that won't be signed. In the past 10 seasons he only drafted 3 HS players in the first rd , and all of them signed.

What are thoughts on how this would affect the type of guys we go after? I also read that the Jays scouting department is massive compared to what Shapiro had in Cleveland, and I suspect there has been very little turnover on the ground level, so we will have a lot of the same scouts making the reports, but different decisions made at the top.

1) Shapiro's "drafting style" is irrelevant as he's not in a position to influence selections.
2) His safe/college "style" didn't even last in Cleveland, as their draft strategy has shifted dramatically in recent years. Last year's Indians at the top draft looks like a carbon copy of a prototype "Blue Jays draft".
3) With the same key decision makers all still in place; I wouldn't expect much change in draft philosophy.

You can't possibly believe that Shapiro isn't in a position to influence selections, that would be incredibly naive. Maybe his style is evolving based on who-knows-what, but he undoubtedly has control over who the team chooses. Obviously there's input from many other people but he most certainly has veto power and the ability to guide the decisions toward a style of his choosing, if he wants to.

[Wally West]

Keith Law's 3rd Mock Draft of the Year

21. Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Muller, LHP
Jesuit College Prep (Dallas)

I don't know that Muller stops here per se, but I have heard the Blue Jays on a bunch of higher-ceiling high school guys.