'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[RSCD3_]

How much of a plus/minus is it that next to LeBron, Channing frye has been much better in the playoffs than love.

Is the rise of Channing more impactful than the fall of Kevin?

[SideshowBob]

What are your thoughts on LBJ this postseason and how do you feel about a pre-87 Magic comparison for his offense?

Also, and this is open to all, Iggy vs. Klay as the 3rd best GS player?

[ElGee]

What are your thoughts on LBJ this postseason and how do you feel about a pre-87 Magic comparison for his offense?

Also, and this is open to all, Iggy vs. Klay as the 3rd best GS player?

Hmm -- I think it's not a bad comparison. Are you asking in terms of efficacy or style? I think I'll consider LeBron comparable to what he was last year when it's all said and done.

I like Klay as GS's 3rd-best player. I want to say "clearly" but I don't want to disparage how good Iggy is even though he comes off the bench. But yeah, I have a major crush on Klay. Think he's comparable to peak Reggie.

[Nbafanatic]

What are your thoughts on LBJ this postseason and how do you feel about a pre-87 Magic comparison for his offense?

Also, and this is open to all, Iggy vs. Klay as the 3rd best GS player?

I think last year was a more fair question, as Iguodala really was huge for the Warriors. This year, with Klay improving a bit more and Andre declining a bit, to me, Klay is clearly the better player. Only the attention the opposing defense has to account for him is already the difference maker. The advantage that Iguodala still have on the defensive end and as an overall playmaker doesn't not make for the difference in shooting.

[SideshowBob]

What are your thoughts on LBJ this postseason and how do you feel about a pre-87 Magic comparison for his offense?

Also, and this is open to all, Iggy vs. Klay as the 3rd best GS player?

Hmm -- I think it's not a bad comparison. Are you asking in terms of efficacy or style? I think I'll consider LeBron comparable to what he was last year when it's all said and done.

Efficacy

I agree. I think maybe a smidge better than last season after observing him these playoffs. Jumper's worse, quickness is better but leaping/finishing through contact has regressed. BUT I've never seen him being this willing to screen the ball this frequently before. Moving more off the ball I can pass off as a strategic choice, but he's making a conscious effort to be involved in the P&R on the opposite side and put the pressure on. That, plus he looks better at play-making at the elbow/high-block.

I think his defensive motor's better this year over 2015 as well.

I like Klay as GS's 3rd-best player. I want to say "clearly" but I don't want to disparage how good Iggy is even though he comes off the bench. But yeah, I have a major crush on Klay. Think he's comparable to peak Reggie.

I think last year was a more fair question, as Iguodala really was huge for the Warriors. This year, with Klay improving a bit more and Andre declining a bit, to me, Klay is clearly the better player. Only the attention the opposing defense has to account for him is already the difference maker. The advantage that Iguodala still have on the defensive end and as an overall playmaker doesn't not make for the difference in shooting.

This is essentially how my thoughts have developed over the last two months. I'm a homer for both (Iggy just slightly more than Klay), and it seems like the above is how the scales have tipped this season. Klay is bonkers.

[mtron929]

If the Warriors lose this series in 5 or 6 with Curry playing similar level of subpar basketball, he might go down all the way to 3 or 4 depending on what happens with the Cavs and the Thunder. From my perspective, the regular season counts very little as the reward for doing so well in the regular season is pretty much meager when it comes to the playoffs. As an example, the Warriors have won 18 more games than the Thunder in the regular season, yet when it comes to series, the reward for this fine performance is one extra home game. And this just does not seem important enough to put so much weight onto the regular season performances. I realize that the playoffs are a small sample and each series is a small sample, but as the best player in the world, you need to destroy these games. Curry hasn't even come close to that and this will be seen as one of the most disappointing ending to a season to a player of his caliber.

[ElGee]

WOWY splits...]

So as of right now, here are the "healthy" lineups for the top contenders:
GSW (41g): +13.9 SRS | +11 ORtg | -2.9 DRtg
SAS (53g): +12.5 SRS | +4.2 ORtg | -9.4 DRtg
CLE (52g): +7.6 SRS | +9.5 ORtg | +1.6 DRtg

Spurs at an all-time level, very similar to peak 96/97 Bulls. But Warriors posting the best ever. Warriors offense also over 117 when healthy. Also, since 1997, [EDIT] only one team had ever outscored anyone by 4 points per game in the 1st quarter (4.3), until this year, when Warriors were better than +5 in the 1st quarter alone.

Probably should have also mentioned that OKC was +8.9 when healthy in the regular with nearly a +9 offense. Oops. They are now over +9 including playoffs when healthy.

[SideshowBob]

Alrighty, we're looking at 3-1 OKC now with 2 straight blowouts and this one's at 25 as I speak. What's the story here?

As I see it, GS is still a historic level but slightly hampered (Curry) team, and OKC is a strong title level team (~8/9 SRS) team that happens to match up well with GS/SAS. It's not really that crazy for a GS level team to be outplayed by an OKC level team in that scenario - they can be inferior vs the other 28 teams on average but just be better in the H2H matchup.

[mtron929]

Alrighty, we're looking at 3-1 OKC now with 2 straight blowouts and this one's at 25 as I speak. What's the story here?

As I see it, GS is still a historic level but slightly hampered (Curry) team, and OKC is a strong title level team (~8/9 SRS) team that happens to match up well with GS/SAS. It's not really that crazy for a GS level team to be outplayed by an OKC level team in that scenario - they can be inferior vs the other 28 teams on average but just be better in the H2H matchup.

Well, the Warriors swept the Thunder during the regular season. Also, it is not just that they are losing, but they are getting blown out. I think a reasonable explanation is that the Warriors peaked early on in the season and has been regressing badly (as well as Curry not being 100%) whereas the Thunder are coming together in the playoffs. I think this couples with the fact that the Warriors might be a front-running team and might not handle true adversity well.

[Basileus777]

The matchup issue is real. OKC is a team that can face Golden State's best lineups and outperform them. The Warriors aren't just losing, the Thunder are beating them where they are strongest.

[GSP]

I had Russ #2 all season but is it crazy for me to have him as Poy at this rate?

[Doctor MJ]

The matchup issue is real. OKC is a team that can face Golden State's best lineups and outperform them. The Warriors aren't just losing, the Thunder are beating them where they are strongest.

Yeah, it's really something. I don't have any immediate insights about it, and am looking forward to seeing others thoughts.

[PaulieWal]

It's getting a bit late so maybe we can get into this tomorrow during the day but barring a miracle comeback with Steph balling out Steph is definitely not going to be #1 on my ballot.

The #1 spot is wide open for GOAT, KD, and Bron.

[RSCD3_]

It's getting a bit late so maybe we can get into this tomorrow during the day but barring a miracle comeback with Steph balling out Steph is definitely not going to be #1 on my ballot.

The #1 spot is wide open for GOAT, KD, and Bron.

Do you think that for whatever reason cleveland can clean up their defense well enough to give the thunder a serious fight? I know some might look at what's hapening wih them and the raptors and scoff at the cavs chance but I think he raptors are back at their RS level and that when cleveland gets to the finals theyll still be able to cause okc certain matchup problems

[SideshowBob]

It's getting a bit late so maybe we can get into this tomorrow during the day but barring a miracle comeback with Steph balling out Steph is definitely not going to be #1 on my ballot.

The #1 spot is wide open for GOAT, KD, and Bron.

Do you think that for whatever reason cleveland can clean up their defense well enough to give the thunder a serious fight? I know some might look at what's hapening wih them and the raptors and scoff at the cavs chance but I think he raptors are back at their RS level and that when cleveland gets to the finals theyll still be able to cause okc certain matchup problems

This is what I just posted in the Lebron thread:

Obviously can't get ahead of ourselves with the Raps and won't 100% count out GS yet (though TBH, it looks about over), but what do we think about the CLE-OKC matchup?

My quick thoughts would be that 2012 framework shows up again. Cleveland is worse defensively [than Miami] but has GOAT 3P spacing w/Smith/Shump/Frye/Love/Irving/Delly and you run the offense with Lebron in the mid/low-post all night long (his scoring is way more polished and his playmaking IQ from the post is far above 2012) and he'll pick them apart with ball reversal or interior passing if they're shading and no OKC guy is going to contain him in single coverage. PLUS Cleveland's iso game is just in general better than GS (outside of Steph really) with Kyrie/Love plus I expect Love to revert to the mean with his post game (which GS lacks even more). GS's movement is amazing and Steph has crazy gravity on the perimeter but I think Cleveland's offense is deeper/more dynamic.

They'll lose a couple for sure because Russ is going to abuse their lack of secondary lane/rim rotation and OKC will wreck them on the boards (Lebron should have another >10 TRB/G Finals if he's being serious about this) and inside in general , but I think they can out offense OKC over the course of 6-7 games.

Feel free to pick it apart.

[kayess]

The "OKC matches up great with GSW" phenemona is really a plethora of factors coming to the fore:

1) On defense: Their length and athleticism allowing them to switch EVERYTHING, making it a far easier task MENTALLY to defend - no more having to keep track of their man, they just have to switch. This manifests itself in GSW's perimeter creators being unable to take the bigs to the hole, GSW's bigs unable to exploit a size mismatch downlow, etc. Thus, even when they switch to Durant/Ibaka at the 4/5, they don't give up much, since any two of Green/Ezeli/Bogut/Barnes can't exploit it the way they have all season long.

They've been able to scout GSW's passing tendencies as well - some of the turnovers they've forced have just been GSW being lazy, but this is especially where their length comes into play. This is important because when GSW penetrate, OKC have been able to cut off their usual passing angles, which is where a few slight adjustments can help them get the open looks they're expecting.

2) On offense: Durant making plays from the 4, passing to cutters, spacing the floor... Westbrook pushing the pace in transition, cutting down on contested jumpers (still a lot of this though), and generating extra possessions from OREBs/hustle plays. Everything except the first point we've all kinda seen before, but what's surprising is GSW getting killed in transition/semi-transition where they're blowing rotations, or not rotating fast enough, etc. I thought it would be Durant's ability to create in the half-court (since GSW are good at guarding the paint) that would be dominant, but it's Westbrook attacking the paint that's causing problems: forcing GSW to go big, which plays into OKC's hands, because then they can generate looks from outside.

Overall: I think it's the difference that's suffered mostly - OKC haven't really hit that many heavily contested shots, GSW are just cheating way too much, not rotating fast enough, etc. If that gets cut down, then they can force a few more misses, attack in semi-transition themselves to get open 3s for their trailers (which they did so well in the RS), and tighten up their play on O - not running into traffic, stop overpassing, try to exploit situations where the bigs are on the perimeter more.

[PaulieWal]

It's getting a bit late so maybe we can get into this tomorrow during the day but barring a miracle comeback with Steph balling out Steph is definitely not going to be #1 on my ballot.

The #1 spot is wide open for GOAT, KD, and Bron.

Do you think that for whatever reason cleveland can clean up their defense well enough to give the thunder a serious fight? I know some might look at what's hapening wih them and the raptors and scoff at the cavs chance but I think he raptors are back at their RS level and that when cleveland gets to the finals theyll still be able to cause okc certain matchup problems

I'd have Cavs as the slight favorites if we do get an OKC-Cavs series.

If I am Cleveland I would be super worried about the Irving-West match-up. Also, hasn't Ibaka done traditionally well against Love?

One thing is that Kanter becomes playable against Cavs. Also, I'd give the coaching advantage to OKC unlike 2012.

Actually now I might be talking myself into OKC being a slight favorite in a potential match-up against the Cavs. Let's see. I will need to think about it more.

[Nbafanatic]

I had Russ #2 all season but is it crazy for me to have him as Poy at this rate?

Not crazy at all... I have Lebron, Durant and Westbrook at a virtual tie, right now.

[SideshowBob]

Conference Finals through 4 games

Russell Westbrook

36.3 MPG: 27.2/6.5/11.8/3.8, 55.8% TS, 14.1% TO, 33.3 PER, 118.5 ORTG, 100.8 DRTG, 0.300 WS/48

Kevin Durant

38.4 MPG: 28.5/8.8/2.5/2.0/1.8, 55.9% TS, 14.3% TO, 23.0 PER, 104.2 ORTG, 101.1 DRTG, 0.156 WS/48

Stephen Curry

34.5 MPG: 24.2/5.5/4.5/2.0, 58.0% TS, 16.9% TO, 20.6 PER, 103.0 ORTG, 109.4 DRTG, 0.070 WS/48

Lebron James

36.7 MPG: 25.0/8.5/6.5/2.2, 67.6% TS, 10.8% TO, 36.2 PER, 135.3 ORTG, 101.9 DRTG, 0.393 WS/48

[kayess]

Conference Finals through 4 games

Russell Westbrook

36.3 MPG: 27.2/6.5/11.8/3.8, 55.8% TS, 14.1% TO, 33.3 PER, 118.5 ORTG, 100.8 DRTG, 0.300 WS/48

Kevin Durant

38.4 MPG: 28.5/8.8/2.5/2.0/1.8, 55.9% TS, 14.3% TO, 23.0 PER, 104.2 ORTG, 101.1 DRTG, 0.156 WS/48

Stephen Curry

34.5 MPG: 24.2/5.5/4.5/2.0, 58.0% TS, 16.9% TO, 20.6 PER, 103.0 ORTG, 109.4 DRTG, 0.070 WS/48

Lebron James

36.7 MPG: 25.0/8.5/6.5/2.2, 67.6% TS, 10.8% TO, 36.2 PER, 135.3 ORTG, 101.9 DRTG, 0.393 WS/48

It's ridiculous that 58% TS is a down series for him.

GOATBROOK with that **** 118 ORTG, +14 higher than Durant.

Similarly, 56% TS is Durant not hitting his shots )

LeBron somehow getting a 36 PER without a jumper