http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14987234/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-top-prospects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projectionsBen Simmons
LSU Forward Big Board: No. 1 Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
As I've discussed with Ford, the only reason Simmons isn't atop the WARP projections is the way they regress players to positional averages -- meaning that the system assumes that some of his great stats are difficult to sustain. That tends to penalize versatile players like Simmons, particularly when they only have one year of data.
Despite his disappointing finish, Simmons had one of the best freshman seasons of the one-and-done era and is the obvious No. 1 pick from a statistical standpoint.
Brandon Ingram
Duke Small forward Big Board: No. 2 Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 3.1 WARP
Where Simmons rates in the top 25 percent of prospects at his position in four different categories, Ingram only has one such strength: his shooting ability. So far, his wingspan hasn't translated into elite defensive performance in terms of box-score stats. Age does work in Ingram's favor, though: At 18, he's more than a year younger than Simmons.
Jamal Murray
Kentucky Shooting guard Big Board: No. 4 Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Don't read too much into Murray ranking 13th in projected WARP; he's only 0.2 WARP behind Ingram in fifth. Since the board is so tightly packed outside the top handful of players, the scouting consensus takes on increased importance and puts Murray third among collegians.
Henry Ellenson
Marquette Power forward Big Board: No. 5 Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Because of his limited athleticism, I expected Ellenson to perform better in statistical projections than scouting rankings. Instead, the opposite is true. Ellenson wasn't a particularly efficient scorer at Marquette, which had an even worse season than LSU, finishing 8-10 in the Big East. Yet Ellenson still ranks fifth on Ford's Big Board.
Jakob Poeltl
Utah Center Big Board: No. 10 Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Returning for a second season has worked out well for Poeltl, who's improved his WARP projection from 1.6 to 2.2 by developing his finishing and his distribution. A good tournament run could help his standing on draft boards, though few teams in the top 10 are in need of a traditional center.
Kris Dunn
Providence Point guard Big Board: No. 7 Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Few prospects in this year's draft are more capable of contributing right away than Dunn, who has the highest 2016-17 projection of anyone in Ford's top 10. The one concern is whether Dunn can score efficiently after making 48 percent of his 2s and 34 percent of his 3s this season.
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt Point guard Big Board: No. 17 Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
A statistical sleeper last year, Baldwin got on the NBA's radar with a strong performance over the summer and is now a likely first-round pick. Because of his relatively low usage rate and poor finishing -- he's made less than 44 percent of his 2-point attempts -- Baldwin's upside is low, but at minimum he looks like a quality backup PG.
Diamond Stone
Maryland Center Big Board: No. 14 Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
A raw freshman who played more minutes as the season went along, Stone is probably too aggressive offensively for his own good at this point, but he has the potential to grow into a larger role. He excelled on the offensive glass while struggling on the defensive boards.
Fred VanVleet
Wichita State Point guard Big Board: No. 62 Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Despite the stereotype that statistical projections hurt experienced prospects, it's VanVleet and not any of the promising freshmen who comes out best by WARP. He ranks in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound point guards in six categories: free throw rate, rebounding, assists, steals, turnover rate and avoiding fouls. Yet there's only one number that seems to matter to NBA scouts when it comes to VanVleet: his 5-foot-11 height. That's why Ford doesn't even have him being taken if everyone ahead of him were to enter the draft.
Marquese Chriss
Washington Power forward Big Board: No. 8 Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Chriss has an intriguing combination of size, athleticism and skill, which explains his rise into the top 10 of the Big Board. He's developed into a threat from the college 3-point line at 6-foot-9. Yet Chriss projects as a below-replacement NBA player next season, in large part because of his poor defensive rebounding. Chriss has grabbed defensive boards at a lower rate than 6-foot-2 teammate Andrew Andrews.
Buddy Hield
Oklahoma Shooting guard Big Board: No. 9 Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Inevitably, Hield's 3-point shooting regressed a bit down the stretch, as he's made just 37 percent of his 3s over the past 10 games, his worst 10-game stretch of the season. Still, Hield is the best shooter in the draft, and that should probably make him a lottery pick and possibly a top-10 choice.
...All the way down at 29 is Jaylen Brown.
Jaylen Brown
California Small forward Big Board: No. 6 Stats: No. 121
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Because he's been such an inefficient scorer, Brown actually projects for negative WARP in the NBA. He's made 49 percent of his 2-point attempts and a dismal 30 percent beyond the arc, numbers that were even worse before Brown improved to 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in conference play. That hasn't stopped Brown from finishing more than 30 percent of Cal's plays. His NBA-caliber size, strength and athleticism translated in terms of drawing fouls but Brown was an average rebounder for an NBA-bound small forward and actually below average in terms of steal rate.
