'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[lorak]

2 quick Adams' fouls at the beginning and overall it looked like finally Warriors got calls in their favor (0.365 FT/FGA), while Thunder not so much (0.220) and result was drastically different than in previous 2 games.

Do you think GS can win game 6 with the same gameplan from last night? If not what changes do they need to make?

I think avoiding fouls is key here. During one of previous games (vs POR I think) Kerr said he doesn't like how they play defense, because they gamble and reach too often. Something similar happens vs OKC and Warriors just have to play smarter. The same on offense, when it seems like they try to make too many flashy plays, what ends in turnovers vs so long team like Thunder. So they have to be more patient on offense. And keep Curry away from Westbrook on defense as often as possible. Stephen has missed uncharacteristically for him MANY open threes in that series, what might be because of fatigue (he hasn't played like 2 weeks, so maybe he is in different point than rest of the players) - OKC defense is very good and he has to spent a lot of energy to have open shot, so if he would be able to "rest" on defense, then maybe he would be better making these open 3s.

[ceiling raiser]

I think it's very fascinating that game 6 is the first game OKC is the favorite in by a mere 2 points (for now). The first 5 games all had GSW as the favorite. Win or lose this series, this is a phenomenal run by OKC. Part of me wants to see the underdog win badly and take down the 73 win giant but last night it looked like Curry/Green figured out some stuff.

Specifically I think GSW figured out that they have to play a bit slower and Igoudala has to handle the ball more.

What bothered me (as someone who is pulling for GS) is how the issue of the difficult matchups wasn't really addressed in game five. Kerr did what he had to do and avoided going small until the end of the game, but three important components of OKC's big wins at home (all related to each other but not identical) that weren't addressed directly have me pessimistic of GS's chances in game 6:

1) The OKC defense, and how their length, athleticism, and switching ability has caused GS to panic offensively.
2) Green being in a tough situation in terms of his individual matchup, need it be KD, Ibaka, or Adams (on both ends, frankly).
3) Not having an answer to OKC's small ball lineup.

Again, staying big was a big part of how GS eked out the win, but I feel like while that raised their floor, by minimizing how often you can go small, you're limiting your ceiling.

Guys like Voulgaris and Lowe did note that maybe GS should use their roaming defense cheating off Roberson less (and go to their vanilla defense more), and they seemed to in game 5. I remember that you mentioned to me before the game that Iggy should function as the primary handler when he and Green share the floor, which was the case last night and worked out decently well.

[therealbig3]

To me, the biggest loss on offense for GS has been that Curry hasn't been as dynamic or explosive as a ball handling scoring threat...IDK if it's rust or OKC's defense or fatigue or all three (definitely don't think he's injured), but he's not putting the same pressure on the defense as usual and we haven't seen a "full" Steph Curry game yet. He had an explosive 3rd quarter in game 2, but that's really been the only sign of normal Steph Curry in this series.

Him and Klay both need to find their shooting touch (37% from 3 for Curry, 30% from 3 for Klay). And I haven't even seen Curry take too many off the dribble 3s, his attempts seem to be mainly catch and shoot, which is very unlike him.

[RSCD3_]

To me, the biggest loss on offense for GS has been that Curry hasn't been as dynamic or explosive as a ball handling scoring threat...IDK if it's rust or OKC's defense or fatigue or all three (definitely don't think he's injured), but he's not putting the same pressure on the defense as usual and we haven't seen a "full" Steph Curry game yet. He had an explosive 3rd quarter in game 2, but that's really been the only sign of normal Steph Curry in this series.

Him and Klay both need to find their shooting touch (37% from 3 for Curry, 30% from 3 for Klay). And I haven't even seen Curry take too many off the dribble 3s, his attempts seem to be mainly catch and shoot, which is very unlike him.

Big difference between Westbrook and Lillard Physically, Westbrook can close space and snuff out these shots, and with how curry's looking those 2-3 inches he isnt getting right now are the difference between a swish and having westbrook bat his ball into the 5th row.

Also I dont kow if he trusts his shot as much with his rhythm being off

[Texas Chuck]

Big difference between Westbrook and Lillard Physically, Westbrook can close space and snuff out these shots, and with how curry's looking those 2-3 inches he isnt getting right now are the difference between a swish and having westbrook bat his ball into the 5th row.

Also I dont kow if he trusts his shot as much with his rhythm being off

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it feels to me like he's actually getting a lot of open looks against Westbrook. It's the switches that are hurting him. He doesn't seem as able to take some guys off the dribble that he should be able to.

But Westbrook has been downright awful defending him. He's so bad about ball-watching. He should be an absolutely elite defender with his size, athleticism, and the intensity with which he plays offense. But in this series he's been downright awful at times and last night in the 2nd half was some of the worst PG defense I've ever seen.

[PaulieWal]

Big difference between Westbrook and Lillard Physically, Westbrook can close space and snuff out these shots, and with how curry's looking those 2-3 inches he isnt getting right now are the difference between a swish and having westbrook bat his ball into the 5th row.

Also I dont kow if he trusts his shot as much with his rhythm being off

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it feels to me like he's actually getting a lot of open looks against Westbrook. It's the switches that are hurting him. He doesn't seem as able to take some guys off the dribble that he should be able to.

But Westbrook has been downright awful defending him. He's so bad about ball-watching. He should be an absolutely elite defender with his size, athleticism, and the intensity with which he plays offense. But in this series he's been downright awful at times and last night in the 2nd half was some of the worst PG defense I've ever seen.

Last night was a bad game for Russ. Bad defense, bad passes, going 1 on 5 many times, and playing out of control. He needs to be good Russ for OKC to close this out. That's the one thing that really scares me if I am on OKC fan. If they fall behind early in game 6 I don't want bad Russ to show up and try to hero ball the team to a win. Donovan has to be on top of that and keep him focused.

[Nbafanatic]

Big difference between Westbrook and Lillard Physically, Westbrook can close space and snuff out these shots, and with how curry's looking those 2-3 inches he isnt getting right now are the difference between a swish and having westbrook bat his ball into the 5th row.

Also I dont kow if he trusts his shot as much with his rhythm being off

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it feels to me like he's actually getting a lot of open looks against Westbrook. It's the switches that are hurting him. He doesn't seem as able to take some guys off the dribble that he should be able to.

But Westbrook has been downright awful defending him. He's so bad about ball-watching. He should be an absolutely elite defender with his size, athleticism, and the intensity with which he plays offense. But in this series he's been downright awful at times and last night in the 2nd half was some of the worst PG defense I've ever seen.

This makes me wonder why can't Curry go with a little more isos against Westbrook without calling for a pick, as he's not being able to shake either Adams or Ibaka for one of those demoralizings on your face threes. He maybe able to get one or two off against an smaller defender, thus have some off the drible rhythm going on again.

[RSCD3_]

Big difference between Westbrook and Lillard Physically, Westbrook can close space and snuff out these shots, and with how curry's looking those 2-3 inches he isnt getting right now are the difference between a swish and having westbrook bat his ball into the 5th row.

Also I dont kow if he trusts his shot as much with his rhythm being off

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it feels to me like he's actually getting a lot of open looks against Westbrook. It's the switches that are hurting him. He doesn't seem as able to take some guys off the dribble that he should be able to.

But Westbrook has been downright awful defending him. He's so bad about ball-watching. He should be an absolutely elite defender with his size, athleticism, and the intensity with which he plays offense. But in this series he's been downright awful at times and last night in the 2nd half was some of the worst PG defense I've ever seen.

We were talking about why curry has been very quiet when he has the ball vs russell. Almost the entirety of curry's offensive success has been offball, when westbrook was guarding him, because curry, the king of off the dribble threes, is very reluctant to try and pop one over russell and that's cause russell is such a good athlete, that the degree of difficulty would be hard enough even if curry where in a rhythm. That's why curry's volume has been down because the thunder by putting westbrook on him habe taken away a lot of his on ball prowess, the thunder have also been great ; toeing the line of fouls to mess up his off ball movement. He has definitely been a plus for the thunder's defense in this series

To your point about open looks vs westbrook, when there's no pick involved I dont think he has made as many jumpers as i couod count on one hand this series, he cant iso because russell is gving him no space and essentially hounding him in a jordanesque fashion. Now he's lost curry off ball a few times but curry looks super reluctant to take jumpers against russell and I think that's because his rhythm/seperation arent still there.

Curry succeeded by making shots all year with a margin of error of near zero. When he's off bh even a little bit of his routine, those magical shots he makes become bad shots that keep hitting rim. If he is having trouble getting past adams/Ibaka without going 100% than of course he'll struggle with westbrook who is far their superior on that end

[kayess]

Durant/WB were 23 of 59 - I don't think that's happening at home, where they'll probably call more ticky-tack fouls on both sides, which affects GSW more as Bogut is foul prone.

Curry's seen a lot of open looks - the most shocking miss to me was when they were down 8 in game 4, he had a wide open corner 3 where he even had time to collect himself, far more than he usually has. He misses, and OKC run away with the game.

[bondom34]

Curry's gonna start hitting those. He's due for a game.

[ceiling raiser]

Curry's gonna start hitting those. He's due for a game.

bondom - I know you watch a ton of OKC, wondering a couple of things about KD:

1) Is this the best defensive series of KD's career? If so, is this level of defense sustainable over an entire playoff run if he wanted? For a season?

2) Do you feel there is a meaningful dropoff in terms of ball-handling and playmaking from his peak in 14? If so, do you think if he were to hypothetically play this level of defense over a season or playoffs, it could still establish a new peak (in spite of the offensive drop)?

[bondom34]

Curry's gonna start hitting those. He's due for a game.

As you're someone who watches a ton of OKC, wondering a couple of things about KD:

1) Is this the best defensive series of KD's career? If so, is this level of defense sustainable over an entire playoff run if he wanted? For a season?

2) Do you feel there is a meaningful dropoff in terms of ball-handling and playmaking from his peak in 14? If so, do you think if he were to hypothetically play this level of defense over a season or playoffs, it could still establish a new peak (in spite of the offensive drop)?

Defensively, he's been more locked in than I can remember, yes. I've seen spurts but this series has been amazing.

For 2, I would have to see a bigger sample but I wouldn't rule it out, there's a definite dropoff in his ball handling as seen in the TOs and bad passing. But if he played D like this, to me it may be more impressive. He's had a great series outside of his shooting not always being there.

[GSP]

Russ was bad last night. Great as he is I hate how hot and cold be can be defensively and with decision making.

At this point I think k u have to have Lebron at #1. This is one of the best postseason of his career easily. I had Russ, Steph KD and kawhi over him for RS. But with how he's played since March and continued into one of his if not his greatest conference finals against an underrated raptors team he's just been as good as he's ever been IMO. Even with streaky jumper his decision making, off ball game (when cavs actually use it or use him as screened), playmaking and inside game are just GOAT level right now and it's producing arguably the most terrifying playoff offense of all time. And this is the best defense he has played in a long, long time. The fact that Cleveland wasn't a poor defensive team playing Love and kyrie as much as they need to is a testament to all the holes he's filled.

I can understand why ppl would still have Steph due to the regular season he had but through missed games and cavs offense has never looked human in the playoffs while the warriors have and it's correlated IMO to defensive game plans on Steph which is a red flag to me. Cavs made a mockery of the Hawks the 2nd best defense in the NBA and statistically all the elite defenders Lebron has gone up against so far have gotten completely torched as well.

[SideshowBob]

2016 Cleveland Cavaliers (14 G)

+15.5 SRS, +16.1 Offense, -1.4 Defense, +17.5 Adjusted Net (120.3 ORTG/106.1 DRTG)

If we use BBR's Playoffs page instead of their game-logs (includes team TOs):

+15.5 SRS, +15.0 Offense, -2.4 Defense, +17.4 Adjusted Net (119.2 ORTG/105.1 DRTG)

Either way, they're running the second best ORTG of all time, closely trailing the 87 Lakers (119.9). Also second best offense by differential, trailing the 05 Suns (+17.0).

The bolded Adjusted Net number above is essentially SRS per 100. They're #2 all time in that rating under the 01 Lakers (+20.7).

Through Game 5 of the ECF, the Cavs were +17.9 with Lebron on the floor. I filtered by >140 MP so we get guys who played at least 20 MPG through at least 2 rounds. The only guys ahead of him since 01 are various SAS roleplayers, two of his own current teammates, one of his Miami roleplayers, and the GOAT, 2011 Jermaine O'Neal.

Love is not far behind at +16.3 (#15). Three more Cavaliers (Smith/Shump/Thompson) are between him and Irving (+10.4, #98).

Last night's game hasn't been added yet but Lebron should be up to +18.8 once it has.

[Texas Chuck]

Russ' defense is so bad. He's not even trying in the 4th. I think I need to take a closer look at his defense overall because its got me thinking Lebron deserves to be ahead of him.

[Texas Chuck]

Donovan showing why he's nowhere on my COY ballot. Down the stretch of a huge game and the entire offense is give the ball to Westbrook or Durant and hope they make a tough shot or they get an OREB. Meanwhile GSW gets good shots for great shooters over and over.

[Texas Chuck]

It's so inexcusable.

[NinjaSheppard]

Donovan showing why he's nowhere on my COY ballot. Down the stretch of a huge game and the entire offense is give the ball to Westbrook or Durant and hope they make a tough shot or they get an OREB. Meanwhile GSW gets good shots for great shooters over and over.

Please Klay and Steph hit harder threes in this game than they were missing earlier. Outcome bias much?

[Texas Chuck]

Donovan showing why he's nowhere on my COY ballot. Down the stretch of a huge game and the entire offense is give the ball to Westbrook or Durant and hope they make a tough shot or they get an OREB. Meanwhile GSW gets good shots for great shooters over and over.

Please Klay and Steph hit harder threes in this game than they were missing earlier. Outcome bias much?

Please, Klay hits one ridiculous one. The rest have been in rhythm with ample space for their release.

And thats totally irrelevant to how bad OKC's offense is. As in they don't have one.

[Nbafanatic]

And just like that, Curry is back in contention.