Draft Thread Part 2

[JMac1]

Brown is not even on the level of Stanimal. much less Justice Winslow coming out. He has a looong way to go before he can even be mentioned in the same sentence as Kawhi

You know I am discussing best case right? Just because someone was further a long in college than another, especially at the same age, doesn't mean it can't change......thus the word potential. Stanimal isn't close to the athlete Brown is either.

Edit: See Devin Booker. Also, team fit and coach can hurt a player's projection, see Michael Jordan.

[JMac1]

I think you misread. His conference stats alone were 35% but overall he was still sub 30 even with those conference games included. But yes, improvement is a good thing. Still shot in the 60% range from line though which is usually best indicator of future ability to improve 3 pt shot.

I read it as "Brown was a sucky offensive of player, see look at his stats, and if not for his improved shooting late in the season, his stats would have been suckier, so my WARP proves he is the 33 best ranked player."

No his WARP ranks him much lower. He ended at 33 when blended with Ford's board ranking of six at the time.

Damn

[JMac1]

For the record. I am okay with Dunn, Bender, Brown, and Okafor, even Hield or Murray, I guess that is why I am a little more objective than most. I am trying to find reason to draft a guy, not the other way around, the latter is the reason why teams burn themselves. C

[gaspar]

Reading back over some Pelton NBA projections based on his model...there were two big discrepancies as he compared his WARP rankings and stats to Chad Ford's big board.



http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14987234/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-top-prospects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projections

So he sees that as making his stats look better because he believes Brown should have shot worse than 30 percent, but because of his better shooting later in the season, Brown really isn't even a 30 percent 3pt shooter. He dismisses his improvement in order to show that his "WARP" will correctly predict Brown as a failure, versus Brown was getting better and he will continue to improve. Maybe there was an adjustment level going from high school to DIV 1 college basketball. "Stats don't lie, statisticians do"

I think you misread. His conference stats alone were 35% but overall he was still sub 30 even with those conference games included. But yes, improvement is a good thing. Still shot in the 60% range from line though which is usually best indicator of future ability to improve 3 pt shot.

Yeah, he was bad at shooting from about anywhere on the court really. Even at the rim he has about the same efficiency as unathletic Valentine.

Brown:
2pt jumpers: 30.1%
3pt jumpers: 30.0%
FT: 65.1%
at rim: 61.6%

FG% at rim of other prospects:
Bembry 69.1%
Chriss 68.5%
J. Murray 65.5%
Prince 64.5%
Hield 64.1%
Valentine 60.3%

I just don't see it with Brown. He can't shoot, his bully ball won't work in the NBA and his good defense is only theoretic at this point.

[Cactus Jack]

Is Ford right about anything anymore? Hanging on to that last thread of relevancy IMO. Yesterday Brown was dropping like a rock, all of a sudden "Could be a top 3 pick" . If we have a shot to get Okafor which I believe we do... (more so than the Celtics, why would they trade him to a division rival) it needs to get done no questions asked.

Okafor is not a two-way player as of now and doesn't look to be in the near future in the modern NBA, Bender and Brown could be that. You know Okafor is a super beast (2016 savage) and if he develops any type of defense he is not as risky, but you have to weigh everything about those guys.

How about this who is Brown ceiling type of player versus Okafor ceiling player? Then choose.

Brown= Kawhi?
Okafor= Cousins?

Kawhi?

[MathiasPW]

I don't like the good things you guys see on Brown (handing and skates). He won't be our playmaker and we have enough scorers in transition (Bledsoe Booker Knight and Warren). I'd like my wing to be more in the 3&D mold, which he definitely is not.

[saintEscaton]

This class is gunna end up somewhere between 2011 and 2013. Top heavy but Ingrams/Simmons are not surefire generational talents even if they both pan out(unlikely considering historical data) they wouldn't make up for the lack of starpower and you will unearth some diamonds in the rough/intriguing rotation bigs in the late lotto and onwards

[sunsbum]

I see where you are going with the potential ceiling of both players but when you have a guy that comes in and scores 17ppg his ROOKIE year compared to brown who I'm almost willing to bet will never avg 17ppg as well as not played a single minute in the NBA, It's just not even close for me. As much as I like Bender and anyone else at 4, its hard to find a guy that puts up 17/8/1.5 his rookie year let alone EVER.

[Kerrsed]

I honestly only see two likely outcomes.
1. They take Bender (He is their guy) assuming he's still available.
2. Boston takes Bender & Dunn is the pick. With the strong chance of a trade (Philly's rumored interest in Dunn).

They pass on Murray, Hield & all of the other guards due to Booker being entrenched.

Celtics: Bender
Suns: *Dunn (Trade)
OR
Celtics: Dunn (trade), Guard
Suns: *Bender

I agree with this. I see this as the 2 most likely scenarios.

As for all this Okafor talk, He is a beast on offense. An absolute BEAST. If we can help him pick-up the fundamentals of defense, then the kid would be unstoppable. Too bad we dont have a former defensive player of the year that also played C on the payroll.....OH WAIT, WE DO!

A couple of years of tutelage from Chandler and i think Jah could be Cousins 2.0 but without the on court attitude. If we could pair him with a defensive PF in the mold of Ibaka, it would be perfect and help cover some of his deficiencies until he starts applying what he is learning from Chandler. The question is (Besides Ibaka who would be a perfect fit), what defensive PF would help us most push that needle and who may be available via FA or trade.

Also, If we did trade #4 for Okafor (I still believe we could do it straight up without adding more pieces), i wonder if the Kings would be open to trading Cousins for a package surrounding Okafor. Say Okafor/Knight/Warren/Future 1st. Even if we had to take back Gay, i would still do it. Bledsoe/Booker/Gay/?????/Cousins could make an amazing push!

[Cactus Jack]

I honestly only see two likely outcomes.
1. They take Bender (He is their guy) assuming he's still available.
2. Boston takes Bender & Dunn is the pick. With the strong chance of a trade (Philly's rumored interest in Dunn).

They pass on Murray, Hield & all of the other guards due to Booker being entrenched.

Celtics: Bender
Suns: *Dunn (Trade)
OR
Celtics: Dunn (trade), Guard
Suns: *Bender

I agree with this. I see this as the 2 most likely scenarios.

As for all this Okafor talk, He is a beast on offense. An absolute BEAST. If we can help him pick-up the fundamentals of defense, then the kid would be unstoppable. Too bad we dont have a former defensive player of the year that also played C on the payroll.....OH WAIT, WE DO!

A couple of years of tutelage from Chandler and i think Jah could be Cousins 2.0 but without the on court attitude. If we could pair him with a defensive PF in the mold of Ibaka, it would be perfect and help cover some of his deficiencies until he starts applying what he is learning from Chandler. The question is (Besides Ibaka who would be a perfect fit), what defensive PF would help us most push that needle and who may be available via FA or trade.

Also, If we did trade #4 for Okafor (I still believe we could do it straight up without adding more pieces), i wonder if the Kings would be open to trading Cousins for a package surrounding Okafor. Say Okafor/Knight/Warren/Future 1st. Even if we had to take back Gay, i would still do it. Bledsoe/Booker/Gay/?????/Cousins could make an amazing push!

I'm not touching Cousins, as good as he is. Great player. Awful person. He's Sacramento's problem. No thanks.

[thamadkant]

If you have Cousins..you need a coach that will win him over and another star he respects.


Hence Bledsoe is critical if the Suns wants Cousins... And another star wont hurt... Winning cures everything.

[NavLDO]

Everyone after the top two guys has flaws or unknowns. With all these guys you can cherry pick stats or scouting reports that support that will confirm your opinion that the guy will suck or be awesome. Because everyone from fans to draft "experts" seem to rank that second tier differently we should mentally prepare ourselves that no matter who they pick at 4 70% of the people won't like the pick because it wasn't "their guy". Let's just hope the guys the suns pay to make these decisions make the right one.

Yeah. No need to 2nd guess McD now following his positive track record, overall. I wasn't thrilled with Booker last year, but didn't hate it either. Len's not as good as some would like, but a lot of that is role and coaching. Warren's been a good 14th overall pick. He's not perfect, but he was picked 14th, so what do you want? We're still waiting on Bogs, but his Euroleague success is promising, and Goodwin, as the 27th overall is still on the team, so that's better than a lot of guys taken that year.

If he takes Hield or Dunn, I'll be 'displeased', but again, I'm sure he'll shape the roster to suit. But honestly, I am not seeing either of them as being a "McD guy" with what choices will still be available at 4th overall. I'd be highly surprised if it wasn't an upside-type guy like Brown, Murray, Skal, or Chriss, if Bender is gone.

[JMac1]

Lol at some of you guys..... "arrgh he is gonna suck and he is gonna suck and he is gonna suck, we shouldn't draft anyone, lets wait until they get drafted at 15 or 16 or 32 or 20 like Kahwi and Giannis and D Jordan and Butler (hate on them before the draft though) and when they turn out to be special we can then create some ridiculous trade scenario for them......"

Gotta think everyone won't get any better versus someone actually reaching their potential, thus the thinking of a Suns' fan.

"We think all things are not possible" is out new slogan. SMH and lol!
"We don't draft off of potential, because we all know 18 year old college players are who they are. Ha! Some one says Brown has ELITE size and athleticism and someone on realgm actually envisions him reaching that potential, lol, what a fool."

Bender sucks, Brown sucks, this draft sucks!

What's going to be funny is when a few guys we don't draft become the next Kawhi and we pass on him again. BTW, look at Leonards's college stats brain trust. He went after both Morri brothers for a reason. They had GM's thinking like a lot of people here, and that's the real joke.

[JMac1]

Everyone after the top two guys has flaws or unknowns. With all these guys you can cherry pick stats or scouting reports that support that will confirm your opinion that the guy will suck or be awesome. Because everyone from fans to draft "experts" seem to rank that second tier differently we should mentally prepare ourselves that no matter who they pick at 4 70% of the people won't like the pick because it wasn't "their guy". Let's just hope the guys the suns pay to make these decisions make the right one.

Yeah. No need to 2nd guess McD now following his positive track record, overall. I wasn't thrilled with Booker last year, but didn't hate it either. Len's not as good as some would like, but a lot of that is role and coaching. Warren's been a good 14th overall pick. He's not perfect, but he was picked 14th, so what do you want? We're still waiting on Bogs, but his Eurloeague success is promising, and Goodwin, as the 27th overall is still on the team, so that's better than a lot of guys taken that year.

If he takes Hield or Dunn, I'll be 'displeased', but again, I'm sure he'll shape the roster to suit. But honestly, I do not seeing either of them as being a "McD guy" with what choices will still be available at 4h overall. I'd be highly surprised if it wasn't an upside-type guy like Brown, Murray, Skal, or Chriss, if Bender is gone.

Upsied? WTH, Brown upside is ML Carr.

[saintEscaton]

Me reading this thread

[JMac1]

Cute gif, but my point was spot on. I don't whine nor based what I think is going to happen on what I want to happen.

Easiest thing to have happen is draft Bender or Brown and plug one of the two in a PF or SF versus trading for Okafor and trading Len and trading Bledose or Knight and drafting Dunn (who I love) or Murray.

I am willing bet that's what happens. Bender or Brown just like AZ Central posted the other day.

[NavLDO]

Brown has an underrated handle, he can split defenders off the dribble has a nice jab step, but when he puts his head he gets tunnel vision, will often cough it up barreling into defenders or get called for a charge. Cuonzo deserves some blame. But I think he would be a less of a massive reach than Chriss who is the superior offensive players as of now but inferior one on defender and not the genetic freak Brown is, he is built like a toothpick. Chriss second worst defensive rebounder in the last 30 years. He overcommits and racks up flashy weakside blocks and can stay in front of his man, but bites on everything and blow by easily because his stance is completely upright with little leverage. Also he is shooting 35% from deep on like less than 2 attempts per game which is promising but nothing to write home about

You've said this a couple of times, yet with no context. He had 2.9 Defensive Rebounds per game (24 minutes). I hardly believe that is the lowest number on 30 years. His per 40 number is 4.6 per 40. Bender's is 4.3 per 40. Vezenkov is 4.1 per 40.

And then you have others that are close: Ellis is 5.4/40.

And why diminish his Offensive Rebounding, which was very good at 4.0/40--higher than Skal at 2.5/40; Diallo at 3.4/40; Ellenson at 2.6/40, etc. So you choose, again, to use 1/2 of a stat--Rebounding--to define a player, like he doesn't know how to rebound, which is clearly not the case. He's just better on the offensive glass than defensive...so what does that prove, exactly???

[saintEscaton]

Its not an arbitrary cherrypicked stat... It has actual predictive capability vs raw per 40 extrapolations

[dremill24]

Brown has an underrated handle, he can split defenders off the dribble has a nice jab step, but when he puts his head he gets tunnel vision, will often cough it up barreling into defenders or get called for a charge. Cuonzo deserves some blame. But I think he would be a less of a massive reach than Chriss who is the superior offensive players as of now but inferior one on defender and not the genetic freak Brown is, he is built like a toothpick. Chriss second worst defensive rebounder in the last 30 years. He overcommits and racks up flashy weakside blocks and can stay in front of his man, but bites on everything and blow by easily because his stance is completely upright with little leverage. Also he is shooting 35% from deep on like less than 2 attempts per game which is promising but nothing to write home about

You've said this a couple of times, yet with no context. He had 2.9 Defensive Rebounds per game (24 minutes). I hardly believe that is the lowest number on 30 years. His per 40 number is 4.6 per 40. Bender's is 4.3 per 40. Vezenkov is 4.1 per 40.

And then you have others that are close: Ellis is 5.4/40.

And why diminish his Offensive Rebounding, which was very good at 4.0/40--higher than Skal at 2.5/40; Diallo at 3.4/40; Ellenson at 2.6/40, etc. So you choose, again, to use 1/2 of a stat--Rebounding--to define a player, like he doesn't know how to rebound, which is clearly not the case. He's just better on the offensive glass than defensive...so what does that prove, exactly???

This is where his numbers are coming from, just as an FYI

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marquese-Chriss-83240/

Where that tends to show up the most vividly right now is as on the defensive glass. At 4.1 rebounds per-40, Chriss ranks among the least prolific power forwards in NBA Draft history according to our database. Among first round picks, only Thaddeus Young (who played mostly SF in college) had a worse defensive rebounding rate in the draft's last 30 years. Chriss almost never puts a body on opposing big men in an attempt to box out and prepare for loose balls coming off the glass, and his relatively small standing reach (measured at 8'9, comparable with most small forwards) didn't help matters much. In addition to his instincts, his motor here leaves a lot to be desired as well, as if at times appears he's operating at half speed, and far more focused on his work on the offensive end.

[JMac1]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MarcJSpearsESPN/status/736703018171699201[/tweet]


[tweet]https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/736711206803628032[/tweet]

Hmmm..... Can't be true, Jaylen isn't very good.