Draft Thread Part 2

[Cactus Jack]

I've seen you repost this a few times. Have you seen him in person or are you just making this up because it doesn't sound like how any of the scouts who have seen them describe him. He is so young and raw to pigeon hole him into a high end role player is what he is going to be is a little specific for an 18 year old who could wash out of the league or be a home run type pick.

I've seen a comparison to Draymond Green but I guess one could consider him a high end role player as well.

Draymond? Wow.

Dray 6'7'' 230
Bender 7'1'' 225
???

Ford: It's a sexy comparison. They're both 7-footers with great motors and versatile skill sets.

But there are differences. Porzingis is a better athlete and shot-blocker and came with much more experience. Bender is arguably a more versatile defender, better shooter and better passer. Most of the international scouts I've spoken with think Porzingis is a better prospect -- though Bender has his fans.

Bender loves a Toni Kukoc comp. That's his hero. But he's not as skilled offensively.

I'm not sure he has an ideal comp. Perhaps the closest I can come is a much bigger Draymond Green. Same versatility on both ends. Similar motor and athleticism. Just a lot taller and skinnier.

Pelton: Agreed on all counts regarding Bender and Porzingis. They're different players.

Bender has broader perimeter skills. We didn't see his playmaking much for Maccabi, given his limited role, but Bender's performance for Croatia in the 2014 FIBA U-18 European Championships is instructive. He averaged 4.9 assists, third among all players.

Because Porzingis was a year further along in his development, it's tough to compare the two players at the point they were drafted. But if we compare Bender to Porzingis in 2014, when Porzingis was the same age, the comparison is more reasonable -- and favorable to Bender.

His translated NBA winning percentage (the per-minute component of my wins above replacement player metric, or WARP) is .444. During 2013-14, Porzingis had a translated .389 winning percentage in the Spanish ACB. (He improved to .461 in 2014-15.)

As a result, Bender performs slightly better in my WARP projections, which factor in age and projected NBA performance. His 3.4 WARP projection is tied with Clint Capela for the best from a prospect in Europe since Ricky Rubio in 2009 (3.7), just ahead of Jusuf Nurkic (3.3), Porzingis (3.2) and Nikola Jokic (3.1).

My SCHOENE projection system has an equally difficult time finding a comp for Bender. Comparing him to NCAA prospects, no player has a similarity score of better than 90 at the same age -- which means there are no easy statistical comps.

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/15676915/is-dragan-bender-next-kristaps-porzingis-nba

Ford's not my favorite analyst, but I think it's safe to say he knows more than anyone here about Bender (other than maybe people from Europe) because he goes and sees him in person and talks to nba team scouts, etc.

I'd say its a stretch to call him Draymond. But, whatever. If he ends up a Sun, for our sake, lets hope he's right.

[AtheJ415]

nbadraft.net is a decapitated dead man's version of DX who has Baldwin going #12. Baldwin is two years younger than Dunn and the superior shooter. I'd rather take him at 13 than Dunn at 4.

Baldwin also has the craziest wingspan I've seen from a PG. He is rough in some areas offensively, but he can be a dynamic defender who can guard both guard spots off the bench, and that has value.

All of that said, I would rather us go with some combo of PF and SF or PF and C at 4 and 13, and then grab a PG later like Gary Payton II. PF and SF are bigger needs than the 3rd PG imo.

Why Gary Payton when he rates at or near the bottom of pg prospects in a/to ratio and shooting? viewtopic.php?f=27&t=1439453&start=1665#start_here

Because he might be the best defender in the draft and has the athleticism to get better. I see him as a Pat Beverly, which I'm perfectly happy with as a career backup PG. Also, he may be there with our final pick, which I can't say for the other PG's I'd actually want (Baldwin or Jackson). I hate Ullis because his size massively caps his potential, and I don't see him as good enough of an athlete to overcome that. I'd rather use our top 3 picks on non-PGs, with some combo of SF, PF, and C addressed. At 28, you coul get Qi potentially, or Brice. At 13, you could get whoever falls at PF/C. Feels wasteful to go PG earlier than our last pick unless it's Dunn and you have trades lined up for our current PG(s).

[NavLDO]

Spoiler:

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/241983/League-Office-Reviewing-Draft-Combine-Measurements

Guess we shouldn't draft Simmons if he falls to us either--same Height (6'10" and Wingspan of 7'0.25")

Don't you think it's a bit odd he measured the same standing Reach as he did two years ago when he was almost 1.5" shorter? Or that he measured the same height and Wingspan of Simmons, yet a 3.5" shorter Reach? These measurements are in question, so not sure why you are quoting measurements that are under extreme scrutiny right now. Chriss also recorded a 38.5" Max Vert.

Sabonis measured a Wingspan of 6'10.5", yet pulled down 11.8 Rebounds per game last year. Should he move to SF also?

Sabonis knows how to box out so no. You guys are thinking too much about numbers. Watch them play and you will see. Sabonis plays bigger than he is by being physical and eating up space. Chriss is not very physical inside and doesnt box out everytime.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj4OkHmzuFc[/youtube]

Sorry in advance--another lengthy post, but just skimming through will be enough to get the points I'm making...so with that said...

Good point. I agree. Sabonis makes up for his deficiencies, while Chriss just needs some coaching in that area. But to rule him out as a late lotto pick based upon his defensive shortcomings that can be coached up, when others undeservedly are ranked much higher at other positions, that have had time to develop their skill, and have not over 3+ years, is short-sided, IMO. I noticed how you chose not to address Dunn and his weaknesses, which are far more pronounced.

But back to Sabonis...what was his 3PT/40 his freshman season as compared to Chriss? 0.0 vs 2.8

How about Steals and Blocks per 40? 0.6 and 0.8 vs 1.5 and 2.6 But I guess Steals and Blocks are not considered "Defense" ??

But hey, let's judge Chriss on his 'poor defense' because his Defensive Rebounds are low, eh?

My issue isn't that Chriss is some how a polished, finished prospect, but there is A LOT of upside there...where's that upside with Dunn? My issue is denigrating Chriss for being a late lotto consideration, yet completely negating a top 5 prospect that has no business being there based upon over 3 years of consistently 'below-average' production. Why can Brown be considered a top 5 SF prospect, with a WS/40 of 4.5, compared to Chriss with an 8.7? OR a TS and eFG of .52 and .47 when Chriss' is .59 and .56? Or as a SF, having an even WORSE PPR of -6.47 compared to Chriss' -6.11? Or a worse FT% of 65.4% compared to Chriss' 68.5%? Why does Brown have "upside" as a top 5 pick, yet Chriss, as a late-lotto doesn't?

At least Chriss, as pointed out by saintEscaton, has positional versatility to play SF, yet Brown, shows NO possibility of playing SG.

If you read my post a few pages back about my thoughts on over-and-under-drafted prospects, I believe Sabonis will be under-drafted, if ONLY because his Wingspan is less than ideal, and he has limited range. But his production, and yes, his boxing out capability is great, and think he'll do well in the league. I only brought up Sabonis to prove a point; prospects can overcome deficiencies, ESPECIALLY those that are very young, with sub-optimal coaching.

But overall, I think if one is going to discount Chriss based upon one stat, yet are perfectly fine with others ranked higher with bigger issues, should really consider these other prospects and their issues, because quite frankly, Chriss' weaknesses pale in comparison to these others...

...then my favorite comment on how Chriss' measurements of Standing Reach of 8'9", Wingspan of 7' .25" at a height of 6'10" was 'unworthy' of being a PF, yet the #1 overall prospect, Simmons, same height, same Wingspan, but magically with a 3.5" advantage in Standing Reach some how makes sense. And let's look at another, Skal Labissierre: Height-6'11.75", Wingspan-7'2.5", Standing Reach-8'9.5"??? Are you kidding me? There's a reason why there's an ongoing investigation into these measurements. I guess Skal will have to be a SF as well, with Simmons...

...and speaking of Skal, let's look at his and Brown's RSCI--Brown RSCI=3, Skal-RSCI=2 vs Chriss' of 56, so rather than having an 'easy road' to be a lotto pick, Chriss had to earn his way there. He didn't get the benefit of the doubt of coming in with such a high RSCI; so based upon these facts, Skal and Brown deserve to be ranked higher (as they are) and get a 'pass' from scrutiny on this forum, but not Chriss...no...not the guy who outperformed Skal in, firstly, even getting on the court (24 vs 15 MPG), but then, WS/40--8.7 vs 6.1, EFF/40--23.4 vs 20.0; A/TO--.38 vs .33; TS and eFG%--.59 and .56 vs .54 and .52; 3PT%--35.7% vs 0%; 2PT%--57% vs 52.1%; Stls/40-- 1.5 vs .6; PFs/40--6.5 vs 7.6 (both very poor numbers); FT%--68.5% vs 66.1%; Total Rebounding % of team--13.5% vs 8.1%; Pts per Poss--1.22 vs 1.09

Skal has his benefits, to be sure--Blks/40--4.2 to 2.6 (yet both very good numbers); Def Reb/40--5.4 vs 4.6 (both poor numbers); PPR-- -4.54 vs -6.11 (bot poor numbers)

So on and so forth. But honestly, I spent all this time posting all this useless information, to make a couple of points:

Chriss is ranked 11th overall (RSCI 56), as compared to:

Dunn-4th (RSCI 20)
Brown-5th (RSCI 3)
Skal-9th (RSCI 2)

I value the fact that Chriss impressed enough this year to open eyes from an RSCI of 56, as did Deyonta Davis (RSCI 28), as did Jamal Murray (RSCI 45), as did Denzel Valentine (RSCI 96), and as did Buddy Hield (RSCI 111) and to be potential lotto picks after one year, yet both PFs are ranked below the above 3, even when 'out-producing' them this last season. Why??

Now Hield scares me as being a 'one-hit-wonder', and he has atrocious PPR and AT/O for a Guard, that only regressed from season to season. He had a similar to Dunn, 34ish% 3PT% before this season. So while I applaud Hield, he's a guy you need to dig a little deeper than just this season, and will likely be over-drafted based upon that one season.

But I digress...I know it looks like I'm 'banging the table' for Chriss, but I'm really not; I'm just saying don't discount an 18 YO for having poor defensive rebounding numbers, and sorry, I disagree; this is something that can be coached up in the NBA.

But yes, I'd be tempted to take Chriss over Dunn, Brown, Hield, or Skal @ 4, but I also feel that Brown's and Skal's issues CAN be fixed at the next level (Dunn and Hield are likely you get what you see). And I don't believe in taking Chriss off our board because of one defensive stat, or a poor PPR, or a BS measurement that is CLEARLY inaccurate. His range, his athleticism, his shot blocking, and his TS% are excellent.

What would you rather have: another SG, one who is a 22YO Senior with a -4.85 PPR or an 18YO PF with a -6.11 PPR? A 22YO PG with a career 69% FT% or a 19YO PF with a 68.5% FT%? A SF with a 48% 2PT% and 28% 3PT%, or a PF with a 57% 2PT% ad 3PT% of 35%, with similar upside and athleticism? I believe these to be valid questions/concerns, and I hope McD is paying attention, and is willing to look beyond on defensive stat, and look at others like Steals and Blocks.

And please allow me to 'beat this dead horse' a little bit more in regards/respect to (IRT) to Chriss' 4.6 Def Reb per 40 that has me riled up.

Two things:

The 1st being, that this whole "2nd worst in 30 years" bit (which, BTW, they aren't even using the correct stat; his per 40 is 4.6, so that, to me, makes a big difference and probably throws out the whole stat/point, anyway); just looking at this draft class alone, here are some others with similar stats in that category, or at least close enough for one to say 'meh, not that big a difference':

Marquese Chriss--4.6

Perry Ellis--5.4
Kyle Wiltjer--5.4 (3.8 as a Freshman)
Marko Arapovic--4.5 or 4.7, depending which league who look at (23 games in one, 27 in other, or maybe the 23 was part of the 27?? IDK)(4.3 or 5.3 last year/5.9 the year prior)
Ben Bentil--5.8
Guerschon Yabusele--5.9

My 2nd point would be, it depends upon when a prospect declares on how they 'measure up' with different aspects, AND that players CAN improve/be coached up in Defensive Rebounding. Some cases in point:

Jake Layman--Has played both Small/Power Forward spots, maxing out at 6.0 Def Rebs per 40, but his 1st 2 seasons he was at 4.6 per in both seasons. Had he come out then, he would have been 'equal' to Chriss in this stat. He played PF in High School, but played both in college, and he's only 6'8" with a 6'9.25 Wingspan.

Ben Bentil--Had he declared after his Freshman year, his Def Reb of 4.8 would've been also viewed as poor, but in one season, he improved to 5.8, proving the skillset cn be improved upon.

Paul Zipser--Played PF in Europe, and improved upon his 3.2 or 5.5 Def Reb per 40 to 5.9 or 6.3, again depending upon which you look at. (BTW, shot 100% from the line in a minimum of 20 games across a 3 year span)

Juan Hernangomez--SF/PF--Improved from 4.9 to 6.8. (And before being accused of putting a SF in this list: "The 6'9 face-up power forward is putting up historic numbers with Estudiantes for a player his age.")

Alex Poythress--SF/PF--Same thing, mostly played PF and is 6'8.5", 230lbs, 6'11.25" Winggspan (but measured as long as 7'1" in the past). 6.4/5.9/4.4 improving to 7.2 as a Senior.

Kyle Wiltjer--If declared after Freshman season, had only 3.8. Then 5.2 as a Sophomore, and ended up 5.4 as a Senior.

Georges Niang--5.1/4.6/5.7 -- Freshman to Junior Season; Improved to 6.0 as a Senior.

And Perry Ellis is an interesting case. His 3PT attempts were inversely proportionate to his Def Reb #s

.2 3PT Attempts vs 7.9 Def Rebs
.7 3PT Attempts vs 6.7 Def Rebs
1.9 3PT Attempts vs 6.5 Def Rebs
2.3 3PT Attempts vs 5.4 Def Rebs

Chriss?
2.3 3PT Attempts vs 4.6 Def Rebs

So, again, a lot can go into, or be read into, his 4.6 Def Rebs per 40 stat, but I sure as heck wouldn't NOT draft him at 13 because of it.

[MrTwister]

I definitely agree that us Yanks aren't the most well informed and acknowledge Euroleague/ even Eurocup competition isn't comparable to Div 1 NCAA but he the only body of work he has to judge is playing in second division of Israeli League which is barely a step up.

Truth to be told, its kinda hard to explain how euro bball works, way basketball is organised and working here in Europe is different than in USA and it takes certain period of adjustment on both, US players coming overseas and Euros coming to USA.What really grinds my gears is when i hear things like "you dont draft bench players from Europe" Most euro prospects dont start or have major role on their team.Ones who do, either play for bad teams or they got bumped in rotation due to injuries.

NBA teams and scouts, from what i heard, could not care less where some euro prospect plays.They just wanna see can that kid play or not, since its basically a different game played in NBA and back here in Europe.Sure they have their notes but most is based on upside and potential, 2 favorite words of draft experts.Israeli league, for example, is bottom tier of domestic leagues, think something like dleague.

I am gonna quote one guy from Celtics board with whom i pretty much agree on.

NBA just fell in love with Europeans at the very wrong time. Those generations drafted 2002-2007 haven't really produced many meaningful Euroleague players. Up to like 2012, '13, it was mostly about the same faces who were dominant in 2004.

What is noticeable about them is that almost every European bust had sub-par character and work ethics and the most exponated of them, Darko, had by far the worst. Most of the things never made it to US media.
Under an article how Detroit signed Darko in 2003, 4 out of 5 top comments are: "fulfill your NBA dream and stay away from Serbia", "you don't have any heart", "I hope you'll be a bench warmer", "you can be ashamed of yourself". In September of 2003. On an article about 18-year old. link if someone doesn't believe me and wants to try his luck with google translate

In 2005 his NT coach had a 35 minute long press conference about how most of his players have cliques and don't want to pass the ball to each other, especially young NBAers (didn't mention Darko specifically, but it's pretty obvious he's in on it).

And somebody titled his outburst in 2007:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woWqSmichOo[/youtube]

His post-basketball career lunacies like kickboxing and tattoos of war criminals made it to US media.
The guy had all the talent in the world, but he was also a complete idiot.

Bargnani was a decent NBA player until he got paid and gave up on himself.

As for Vesely, he really just played for a good coach who knew how to hide his flaws. There was literally 6-8 major busts in European terms on that team, all of whom seemed like dominant Euroleague players in the future. They all seemed great with that team, transferred to bigger stage and became underwhelming bench warmers. Their coach was also signed to a huge contract and busted.

When I'm already talking about Europeans with poor work ethics, Josip Sesar who was drafted by the Celtics in 2000 as 2nd rounder should have been our Ginobili, but he never gave a rat's furry a$$ about basketball. Some people say (I was too young to remember and properly compare) he was more talented than Hezonja or Bender. If he hadn't declared before the draft he never wants to play outside Croatia, that guy would have been a huuuuge bust. He's incredibly intelligent (I love to hear him as analyst, it's just a joy), but just didn't give a single f in practice.

Regarding draft, i think it would be wise for you to trade the #4 if you dont like anyone in particular that is available there for some decent vet who can help the team from get-go.

You're pretty familiar with Bender. Do you think the Suns should take him if he is there? I agree they should trade the pick or at least gauge interest for it if Bender isn't there, but would rather it wasn't for a vet (someone who's been in the league more than a handful of years).

I believe that Bender will become a serviceable role player with upside and could be amazing weapon if used and developed properly.He is also a huge gamble considering lack of playing time he received this season but i explained it several times that most of it were due to some other things like various league restrictions (Israeli league rules state that at least three spots on every team’s 12-man active roster must be comprised of two domestic players under the age of 22 and one under 25) that often left him out of the roster..Thing is, not sure how patient you can be with him and how bad you want him.He will probably be available for workouts weeks before June 23rd and will travel for USA since he decided not to join Croatian NT camp.So most executives will get a better look.

With all the talk above about character and work ethic, that's 2 things you shouldn't be worried about Bender.Last year he was not a good shooter at all, to get himself this year to at least respectable level.That shooting form is still improving and his release is probably get quicker.Plus kid is a gamer, he was basically dragged out from arena when they told him prior to the game he cant play due to shoes dispute.Last year similar thing was with Hezonja, he played with swagger and confidence and had amazing work ethic(he was basically in Orlando until everybody else left than he went back to Croatia and kept on working on his handle and off-the-dribble playmaking).Thats the reason i am still high on him, i believe that more often than not, a player with good character and work ethic can thrive in this league, no matter from where is he coming from.Talent is also important but those 2 gets overlooked sometimes.

Draft picks are valuable especially with new cap situation, rookie deal contracts are bargain.I am sure that some teams could use shooters like Hield and Murray or PG like Dunn, if it was me, that pick would be available for right price, considering that draft is role player heavy and you could ask for future 1st too.

[saintEscaton]

I'm not trying to attack you mate, so don't take this the wrong way, but can you give me one elite level skill that Brown has right now? From what I have seen and read it is really just "athleticism." We all know how many guys come into the league with elite athleticism and fail. How many have won the dunk contest and never been heard from again? He can't shoot. He can't pass. From all I can tell all he does is drive straight to the rim which is not going to happen at the next level. We have our own test case with Archie Goodwin there. A guy that can get to any spot he wants and still can't make an NBA career for himself with just that skill because he can't shoot, pass, rebound or defend.

I'll root for the guy if we take him just as I'll root for whoever we select. At least with Bender we know he is already an elite passer for a big-man, he runs like a gazelle for a 7-footer, and from what I've seen he defends pretty well. Does he have bust potential? Yup, a lot of it. So does every single player after the top 2. As much as people want Dunn to be the next Lillard or McCollum, he's not. As much as people want Hield to be the next Curry he's not. We just have to make the best decision we can on the information we have and hope it's the right one.

Bender projects to be a high end role player touted for his hustle and smarts, a jack of all master of none mechanical faceup big with limited awareness inside the key , not a threat off the bounce and has hard time blowing by anyone when he's putting it on the deck. Only took treys when he was wide open spotting up, doesn't get his feet set fast enough orhave a quick trigger release to take contested treys off of screens or pick n' pops. He is an above average playmaker but not quite a point forward in the mold of a Saric who actually ran PnRs as the primary ballhandler, but he can make flashy outlet passes, create out of the post and has enough of a handle to push the break although he is he is basically a SF in a 7 footer's body but not quite a Kirlienko becuase he isn't as freakishly long limbed or vertically explosive. He's promising as a team defender in space can hedge the ball screener, close out in a hurry and recover helpside for chasedowns but also overcommits and loses interior positioning so he's not really an anchoring rim protector for a free rover

Horrible take imo. I nearly threw up.

Care to elaborate?

[bwgood77]

Baldwin also has the craziest wingspan I've seen from a PG. He is rough in some areas offensively, but he can be a dynamic defender who can guard both guard spots off the bench, and that has value.

All of that said, I would rather us go with some combo of PF and SF or PF and C at 4 and 13, and then grab a PG later like Gary Payton II. PF and SF are bigger needs than the 3rd PG imo.

Why Gary Payton when he rates at or near the bottom of pg prospects in a/to ratio and shooting? viewtopic.php?f=27&t=1439453&start=1665#start_here

Because he might be the best defender in the draft and has the athleticism to get better. I see him as a Pat Beverly, which I'm perfectly happy with as a career backup PG. Also, he may be there with our final pick, which I can't say for the other PG's I'd actually want (Baldwin or Jackson). I hate Ullis because his size massively caps his potential, and I don't see him as good enough of an athlete to overcome that. I'd rather use our top 3 picks on non-PGs, with some combo of SF, PF, and C addressed. At 28, you coul get Qi potentially, or Brice. At 13, you could get whoever falls at PF/C. Feels wasteful to go PG earlier than our last pick unless it's Dunn and you have trades lined up for our current PG(s).

I agree with that. I do think it will be easier to find a really good PG in next year's draft if it's a need. It's pretty loaded with pgs.

[Krush32]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/241983/League-Office-Reviewing-Draft-Combine-Measurements

Guess we shouldn't draft Simmons if he falls to us either--same Height (6'10" and Wingspan of 7'0.25")

Don't you think it's a bit odd he measured the same standing Reach as he did two years ago when he was almost 1.5" shorter? Or that he measured the same height and Wingspan of Simmons, yet a 3.5" shorter Reach? These measurements are in question, so not sure why you are quoting measurements that are under extreme scrutiny right now. Chriss also recorded a 38.5" Max Vert.

Sabonis measured a Wingspan of 6'10.5", yet pulled down 11.8 Rebounds per game last year. Should he move to SF also?

Sabonis knows how to box out so no. You guys are thinking too much about numbers. Watch them play and you will see. Sabonis plays bigger than he is by being physical and eating up space. Chriss is not very physical inside and doesnt box out everytime.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj4OkHmzuFc[/youtube]

Now Hield scares me as being a 'one-hit-wonder', and he has atrocious PPR and AT/O for a Guard, that only regressed from season to season. He had a similar to Dunn, 34ish% 3PT% before this season. So while I applaud Hield, he's a guy you need to dig a little deeper than just this season, and will likely be over-drafted based upon that one season.

But I digress...I know it looks like I'm 'banging the table' for Chriss, but I'm really not; I'm just saying don't discount an 18 YO for having poor defensive rebounding numbers, and sorry, I disagree; this is something that can be coached up in the NBA.

But yes, I'd be tempted to take Chriss over Dunn, Brown, Hield, or Skal @ 4, but I also feel that Brown's and Skal's issues CAN be fixed at the next level (Dunn and Hield are likely you get what you see). And I don't believe in taking Chriss off our board because of one defensive stat, or a poor PPR, or a BS measurement that is CLEARLY inaccurate. His range, his athleticism, his shot blocking, and his TS% are excellent.

What would you rather have: another SG, one who is a 22YO Senior with a -4.85 PPR or an 18YO PF with a -6.11 PPR? A 22YO PG with a career 69% FT% or a 19YO PF with a 68.5% FT%? A SF with a 48% 2PT% and 28% 3PT%, or a PF with a 57% 2PT% ad 3PT% of 35%, with similar upside and athleticism? I believe these to be valid questions/concerns, and I hope McD is paying attention, and is willing to look beyond on defensive stat, and look at others like Steals and Blocks.

First of all, I never said anything about Skal, Dunn, or Brown. Not sure why you are bringing them up. I dont understand your argument about Heild being a 1 hit wonder. This is someone who worked his ass off in the gym improving his jumpshot, and his game is setup around his amazingly consistent shot that hes proved over a 37 game season...not just a few games. A jumper is not something you normally lose. His 3 pt numbers are better than Steph's, Redick's, and similar to Ray Allens. Improvement over 4 years is a good thing and shows they are willing to improve.

Then as far as Chriss being coached to be a better rebounder I disagree. From what ive seen its not knowing how to rebound its him not putting in the effort to rebound and out a body on someone. Its about effort, and wanting the ball. He has good size and great athleticism to be an average rebounder without trying. Just out jumping people he should be able to get decent numbers. Im not saying its impossible for him to improve but its not a good look and not someone I would get with a #4 pick. 13th pick sure...even 6'7" Andre Roberson from the Thunder avg'd 11 rebs a game in the pac 12.

I want someone thats polished enough to get mins this season and im sure Mcdonough does too or elese he's not gonna be around next season. I think Heild is gonna contribute more than anyone else in the draft this season. You can never have enough shooters. Just my opinion.

[Cactus Jack]

I believe that Bender will become a serviceable role player with upside and could be amazing weapon if used and developed properly.He is also a huge gamble considering lack of playing time he received this season but i explained it several times that most of it were due to some other things like various league restrictions (Israeli league rules state that at least three spots on every team’s 12-man active roster must be comprised of two domestic players under the age of 22 and one under 25) that often left him out of the roster..Thing is, not sure how patient you can be with him and how bad you want him.He will probably be available for workouts weeks before June 23rd and will travel for USA since he decided not to join Croatian NT camp.So most executives will get a better look.

With all the talk above about character and work ethic, that's 2 things you shouldn't be worried about Bender.Last year he was not a good shooter at all, to get himself this year to at least respectable level.That shooting form is still improving and his release is probably get quicker.Plus kid is a gamer, he was basically dragged out from arena when they told him prior to the game he cant play due to shoes dispute.Last year similar thing was with Hezonja, he played with swagger and confidence and had amazing work ethic(he was basically in Orlando until everybody else left than he went back to Croatia and kept on working on his handle and off-the-dribble playmaking).Thats the reason i am still high on him, i believe that more often than not, a player with good character and work ethic can thrive in this league, no matter from where is he coming from.Talent is also important but those 2 gets overlooked sometimes.

Draft picks are valuable especially with new cap situation, rookie deal contracts are bargain.I am sure that some teams could use shooters like Hield and Murray or PG like Dunn, if it was me, that pick would be available for right price, considering that draft is role player heavy and you could ask for future 1st too.

Thanks for the feedback. I would agree for the most part. I'd say its a safe bet he becomes a decent role player as you described. But, at the same time is a huge gamble & the 4th pick should be available for the right price (Ok4 & other good young players).

[Saberestar]

Devin Booker is in the gym today to see his college roommate and close friend since eighth grade, Tyler Ulis, work out for the Suns.

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulcoro/status/737341596811681792

I know that a lot of people think that picking Ulis at #13 is a reach but I am not too high about the other prospects that are gonna be available on that range so I would get him. It's a really good thing that he has some chemistry with Booker already.

If we select or trade for a big with #4 I can see McDonough picking a perimeter player with our #13 (Valentine, Baldwin, Korkmaz, Ulis or Luwawu are possible options out there).

[Saberestar]

Some suns writers posting videos of Thon makers workout today. I'm not breaking any news here but damn is he long. I can't see him getting to the back of the 1st round. Some team in the teens is gonna fall in love with his potential.

I am all for drafting him at #28, even in the early twenties if we can trade up with #28 + #34.

[JMac1]

Who's they? People are either really overrating Benders defensive impact or underate Okafor & his potential defensively.

C'mon. I'm not going to quote all of the scouts and writers, there is enough on this page alone. Yea, I haven't seen it, but if so many people have and we probably will damn sure draft him if he is at 4, what does that say?

I don't know how you pass on Okafor, if you had the option. Averaged 17/7 his rookie year. An advanced offensive game for his age. Potential of being one of the best scoring bigs in the league going forward. Has proven he can play at this level. Only knock on him is his defense isnt as polished as his offensive game. Bender meanwhile, is still very raw. Has played against inferior competition. Likely still years away from having an impact, if he ever develops.

I understand taking Okafor over Bender, you don't have to sell me, but I also understand taking Bender or Brown over Okafor too, especially when you include Knight in the trade.

As each day passes and I read up more on Brown and watch him play (clips), I like him a lot more. Whoever of the three we get, I understand.

[JMac1]

Some suns writers posting videos of Thon makers workout today. I'm not breaking any news here but damn is he long. I can't see him getting to the back of the 1st round. Some team in the teens is gonna fall in love with his potential.

I am all for drafting him at #28, even in the early twenties if we can trade up with #28 + #34.

Roll die on Maker or Qi with 28, NOT 13. If someone snabs them up before 28, more power to them.

[bwgood77]

Devin Booker is in the gym today to see his college roommate and close friend since eighth grade, Tyler Ulis, work out for the Suns.

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulcoro/status/737341596811681792

I know that a lot of people think that picking Ulis at #13 is a reach but I am not too high about the other prospects that are gonna be available on that range so I would get him. It's a really good thing that he has some chemistry with Booker already.

If we select or trade for a big with #4 I can see McDonough picking a perimeter player with our #13 (Valentine, Baldwin, Korkmaz, Ulis or Luwawu are possible options out there).

Well I wouldn't be terribly shocked if McD took him there, though maybe he has learned the undersized guard lineup is not optimal. But he may be salivating at getting both Murray and Ulis.

[bwgood77]

I believe that Bender will become a serviceable role player with upside and could be amazing weapon if used and developed properly.He is also a huge gamble considering lack of playing time he received this season but i explained it several times that most of it were due to some other things like various league restrictions (Israeli league rules state that at least three spots on every team’s 12-man active roster must be comprised of two domestic players under the age of 22 and one under 25) that often left him out of the roster..Thing is, not sure how patient you can be with him and how bad you want him.He will probably be available for workouts weeks before June 23rd and will travel for USA since he decided not to join Croatian NT camp.So most executives will get a better look.

With all the talk above about character and work ethic, that's 2 things you shouldn't be worried about Bender.Last year he was not a good shooter at all, to get himself this year to at least respectable level.That shooting form is still improving and his release is probably get quicker.Plus kid is a gamer, he was basically dragged out from arena when they told him prior to the game he cant play due to shoes dispute.Last year similar thing was with Hezonja, he played with swagger and confidence and had amazing work ethic(he was basically in Orlando until everybody else left than he went back to Croatia and kept on working on his handle and off-the-dribble playmaking).Thats the reason i am still high on him, i believe that more often than not, a player with good character and work ethic can thrive in this league, no matter from where is he coming from.Talent is also important but those 2 gets overlooked sometimes.

Draft picks are valuable especially with new cap situation, rookie deal contracts are bargain.I am sure that some teams could use shooters like Hield and Murray or PG like Dunn, if it was me, that pick would be available for right price, considering that draft is role player heavy and you could ask for future 1st too.

Thanks for the feedback. I agree.

[NavLDO]

Yeah, I find him pretty fascinating but unless guys are 100% dedicated to basketball, they are going to have a tough time making it in the league, particularly when they have so many things to work on. It almost seems like he wants so badly to appear and be eccentric that his mind just might be all over the place. He's obviously smart, but hard work almost always trumps being smart.

Obviously if you put 20,000 hours into something and get up every morning at 5:30 am you are putting in hard work, so we will see if he really devotes that much time to improving (like guys like Hield and Murray most certainly seem to, even though they have more athletic limitations), but if he also devotes the time it would take to learn all these languages and things at the same time. It would be wiser to devote 100% of attention to basketball now and then to whatever else when those skills will be what you need to achieve whatever your goals are next.

I never seen this one before.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj_17K02PkY[/youtube]

Great vid.

Along with some other articles/vids I've come round to Brown.

To me though, he's not Wade or Kawhi as some have said, to me he looks a LOT like young Paul Pierce:

On my phone and friggin YouTube thing isn't working!

http://youtu.be/tEH24eprlGY

When he was at Kansas he was really chunky and played a lot of PF despite only being 6'6" - 6'7", but he was a load offensively. Like Brown, Pierce shot only 30.4% from 3 as a freshman and they averaged similarly 'average' PT/REB numbers too. Pierce was a demon on D though, averaging over a steal per and nearly 1 block also.

Their jump shot form looks similar, not a lot of lift but seemingly effective. The bull in a china shop approach to driving/slashing is also very similar - with Pierce only making 65% of his freebies, so well below average for someone who has a perimeter oriented skill set like Brown.

All in all I'm fine with Brown at 4. Ideally our board would look something like this for me (in order of preference)

4: Bender / Okafor trade / Brown
13: Baldwin / Criss / Luwawe
28: Brogdon / Maker (ironic these two are basically an antithesis, I know!)

I don't want anything to do with Murray at 4 or Skal, ANYWHERE. Skal to me is far too raw and even though his opportunity was limited, I think his upside just isn't that high. Too much Fab Melo vibe from him for my liking.

I would be ok with Dunn at 4, but Knight would have to be gone on draft day - not another PG ménage a tois please.

I honestly think McD is on thin ice with Sarver so this draft day could very well determine his career as Suns GM. If he whiffs and we miss the playoffs/show no improvement, he could be done as GM. Booker was a fantastic pick but can't help but think he got a little lucky - albeit every GM needs some luck I guess.

Bender looks like the ideal McD pick as he's so young and multi dimensional but it wouldn't surprise me if he goes Criss or Murray. Safe to say if Dunn was 19-20 he'd be taken at 4, but at 22 he's probably too old in McD's eyes.

Same for Valentine as for Dunn, nice skill set and would be a solid fit - but probably too 'old'. This isn't my thinking that a guy who is 21-22-23 is too old, if you look at McD's history and comments that's basically what he projects in every draft. Again, Valentine to me just looks a little too much like Evan Turner (though with a 3pt stroke) and John Salmons. That's not to say he won't be a good NBA player and we should look at him at 13, but I think TJ needs to get a serous look as starting SF and bringing another one in (as well as Bogdanovic who can play some small 3) probably just causes another logjam.

PF is our biggest issue and I don't see any real immediate help here unless Bender can contribute right away.

Criss is incredibly raw and as much Amare I see in him I see just as much Jeremy Evans too. The outside shot is solid and the hops are amazing, but as others have mentioned there are a LOT of red flags with him - not sure McD strikes gold twice with another youngster.

As an aside, I really hope we keep Teletovic - he was awesome last year, he loves it in Az and you can never have enough solid vets around, especially one who knows his role and does it well. Offer 3yrs $25m, bit of a lowball but see how we go from there. I'd pay him $10m per but only because this current climate is batsh*t crazy.

Well formulated and thought-out post. I agree with everything except Dunn. As DRK asked about Bender, I'll ask (not you, Tastic, specifically) what it is anyone sees in a high TO prone, below-average shooting, non-improving-from-year-to-year, and thus low-upside PG that is 22 YO?

I do agree with Telly, but would prefer Leuer, as I think he is a better 'all-around' and 'more versatile' and younger option at PF, but I'd be perfectly happy to keep them both, quite frankly.

Brown scares me, but he does have upside, like Chriss.

DISCLAIMER: Will list Standing Reach measurements, but highly suspect due to ongoing investigation)

As for 'immediate; PF contribution? I hate to say it, but I think Sabonis would give us our best chance as a starter for us at PF:

Seeing his usage nearly double in one of the most post-oriented offensive systems in the country, Sabonis averaged a terrific 1.1 points per possession over 16 possessions per game as a sophomore, matching the scoring efficiency numbers he posted in a far smaller role as a freshman. Doing the majority of his scoring one-on-one on the block, the talented Lithuanian big man's aggressiveness and strong feel for the game allowed him to make a consistent impact in the scoring column, including a handful of strong performances against quality competition.


Finishing the year ranked seventh in the country in post-up scoring and third in efficiency according to Synergy Sports Technology, Sabonis combines excellent footwork with tremendous hands, good body control, and nice touch shooting the ball from a variety of angles going right or left. He has a very polished repertoire of moves for a 19 year old big man. Sabonis' experience at the highest level of European basketball were apparent at times over the last two years as his knack for creating angles to receive entry passes, ability to pass out of the post, and awareness to spin off the defense on short rolls are truly impressive.

His maturity, NBA-ready body, and feel for the game, IMO, gives him the best opportunity to succeed. If he's there at 13, I wouldn't be upset with him as our pick, especially if we take a 'high-upside' type pick like Bender, Brown, Chriss, or Skal at 4, or a Guard like Murray.

If not Sabonis, and actually, my preference, would likely be Bentil at 28. He also has a strong, NBA-ready frame, but likely provides more upside than Sabonis. He has nice length with a 7' 1.5" Wingspan, even though he's only 6' 8.25" tall. But 230lbs on a 6'8" frame is some decent bulk, and he's 'swole' like I guess Warren is now.... Bentil is an improving shooter and rebounder, but lacks some awareness, from what I've read. But at the Combine, he made some heads turn:

He has gorgeous mechanics and excellent touch, with range well out to the NBA line and even some ability to create some separation off the dribble in the mid-range when closely contested or off a jab-step.

I like that he can put the ball on the floor and is fairly comfortable with his handle.

Next would be Brice Johnson, though I question how he'll hold up against NBA bodies--6' 10.5" at only 209 is concerning. And even though SaintEscaton questions that 7' .25" is an acceptable length for a PF Wingspan, most others would be ok with that measurement on a 6' 10.5" body. He's got some nice athleticism as he was 13th out of 50 in the shuttle run, 8th in 3/4 sprint, 12th with a 38" Max Vert, 9th with a 33.5 Standing Vert, thought just 42nd in lane agility (which is interesting as Valentine was the exact opposite--had elite Lane Agility times, but below average in other areas).

As far as production, he's a good, not great, rebounder, as well as shooting. Improved (unlike others who shall remain nameless) throughout his career.

Our last chance would come at pick 34, and there are a couple of guys that might fit the bill--Robert Carter Jr., Georges Niang (and as an Undrafted guy, Alex Poytress)

Robert Carter Jr.--6'8.5", 251, 7'3" Wingspan, 8'10.5" Reach--Faired well at Combine 5-on-5s. Decent Rebounder, FT shooter (74%), 3PT Shooter (33% on 2.2 APG), Much improved 2PT% (62.4%). But like Sullinger, will need to keep a close eye on weight.

Georges Niang--6'8.5", 231, 6'10" Wingspan, 8'7" Reach--Not overly athletic. Great FT Shooter (over 80% last 2 years). Awesome 3PT shooter (4 years--39.2, 32.7, 40.0, 39.2 percent on average of 3.5 or so attempts). Not a great rebounder, (but not surprising as he was a stretch 4) but held his own avg'ing about 5.5 in 30mpg.

[Kerrsed]

A high risk "Serviceable role player" is seriously the last thing im looking for when drafting at #4. Im either looking for a guaranteed starter or a high risk high reward player. Serviceable role player? That describes Dudley and PJ Tucker.

[lilfishi22]

A high risk "Serviceable role player" is seriously the last thing im looking for when drafting at #4. Im either looking for a guaranteed starter or a high risk high reward player. Serviceable role player? That describes Dudley and PJ Tucker.

I've been trying to wrap my head around why I'm against Bender at #4 and I think you've summed it up perfectly. I don't see star potential, he's not being projected as a star player and he's also a very high risk pick.

I just can't balance the risk and reward for taking Bender this high.

[Cactus Jack]

A high risk "Serviceable role player" is seriously the last thing im looking for when drafting at #4. Im either looking for a guaranteed starter or a high risk high reward player. Serviceable role player? That describes Dudley and PJ Tucker.

I've been trying to wrap my head around why I'm against Bender at #4 and I think you've summed it up perfectly. I don't see star potential, he's not being projected as a star player and he's also a very high risk pick.

I just can't balance the risk and reward for taking Bender this high.

Exactly.

[Kerrsed]

A high risk "Serviceable role player" is seriously the last thing im looking for when drafting at #4. Im either looking for a guaranteed starter or a high risk high reward player. Serviceable role player? That describes Dudley and PJ Tucker.

I've been trying to wrap my head around why I'm against Bender at #4 and I think you've summed it up perfectly. I don't see star potential, he's not being projected as a star player and he's also a very high risk pick.

I just can't balance the risk and reward for taking Bender this high.

I mean when the guy on our board that has probably seen Bender the most (MrTwister) and watched the Euroleague the most, calls him a serviceable role player and high risk, that really says something. That scares me. I was actually starting to warm up to the idea of Bender (And REALLY thinking of the idea of a Bender/Noel pairing), but there are just way too many questions.

[Krush32]

I 3rd that. Bender might be a good role player but not at #4. In last years draft I would have him ranked around Myles Turner and Tre Lyles.