Draft Thread Part 2

[batsmasher]

Dragan replaces Dragon. The math is simple guys.

[NavLDO]

Sabonis knows how to box out so no. You guys are thinking too much about numbers. Watch them play and you will see. Sabonis plays bigger than he is by being physical and eating up space. Chriss is not very physical inside and doesnt box out everytime.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj4OkHmzuFc[/youtube]

Now Hield scares me as being a 'one-hit-wonder', and he has atrocious PPR and AT/O for a Guard, that only regressed from season to season. He had a similar to Dunn, 34ish% 3PT% before this season. So while I applaud Hield, he's a guy you need to dig a little deeper than just this season, and will likely be over-drafted based upon that one season.

But I digress...I know it looks like I'm 'banging the table' for Chriss, but I'm really not; I'm just saying don't discount an 18 YO for having poor defensive rebounding numbers, and sorry, I disagree; this is something that can be coached up in the NBA.

But yes, I'd be tempted to take Chriss over Dunn, Brown, Hield, or Skal @ 4, but I also feel that Brown's and Skal's issues CAN be fixed at the next level (Dunn and Hield are likely you get what you see). And I don't believe in taking Chriss off our board because of one defensive stat, or a poor PPR, or a BS measurement that is CLEARLY inaccurate. His range, his athleticism, his shot blocking, and his TS% are excellent.

What would you rather have: another SG, one who is a 22YO Senior with a -4.85 PPR or an 18YO PF with a -6.11 PPR? A 22YO PG with a career 69% FT% or a 19YO PF with a 68.5% FT%? A SF with a 48% 2PT% and 28% 3PT%, or a PF with a 57% 2PT% ad 3PT% of 35%, with similar upside and athleticism? I believe these to be valid questions/concerns, and I hope McD is paying attention, and is willing to look beyond on defensive stat, and look at others like Steals and Blocks.

First of all, I never said anything about Skal, Dunn, or Brown. Not sure why you are bringing them up. I dont understand your argument about Heild being a 1 hit wonder. This is someone who worked his ass off in the gym improving his jumpshot, and his game is setup around his amazingly consistent shot that hes proved over a 37 game season...not just a few games. A jumper is not something you normally lose. His 3 pt numbers are better than Steph's, Redick's, and similar to Ray Allens. Improvement over 4 years is a good thing and shows they are willing to improve.

Then as far as Chriss being coached to be a better rebounder I disagree. From what ive seen its not knowing how to rebound its him not putting in the effort to rebound and out a body on someone. Its about effort, and wanting the ball. He has good size and great athleticism to be an average rebounder without trying. Just out jumping people he should be able to get decent numbers. Im not saying its impossible for him to improve but its not a good look and not someone I would get with a #4 pick. 13th pick sure...even 6'7" Andre Roberson from the Thunder avg'd 11 rebs a game in the pac 12.

I want someone thats polished enough to get mins this season and im sure Mcdonough does too or elese he's not gonna be around next season. I think Heild is gonna contribute more than anyone else in the draft this season. You can never have enough shooters. Just my opinion.

Well, as I showed in a previous post, there are plenty of examples of player that improved their Defensive Rebounding following their Freshman year. I also showed how one propect (Ells) Defensive Rebounding numbers decreased, as his role as a "stretch" increased, and got down to the point close to Chriss (5.4 vs 4.6) with the same number of 3PT attempts (2.3). Then couple in the fact that he's not even 19 yet. He CAN be coached to be more aggressive on the glass; I'm not sure why you doubt that? You don't think a player can be taught how to box out appropriately? Tell a player he doesn't get playing time if he doesn't put in the 'hustle and effort' and he may well change his ways--it's called motivation, and contract money can be big motivators. Then there's the whole part about defining a prospect on ONE stat--a 19 YO at that; let's not consider his other positive attributes, ONLY his poor defensive rebounding numbers.

Imagine if everyone gave up on Hield after his Freshman year because as a SG, he could only shoot 23.8% from 3 on 3 attempts per game. That would've been fair to do, right?? I already said I applauded his effort to get better, but there are plenty of example of players that shot well one year, and fell off the next:

Demetrius Jackson--42%/43%/33%
Taurean Prince--40%/36%
DeAndre Bembry--35%/33%/26.6%
Josh Hart--46%/36%
Monte Morris--40.6%/39.5%/35.8%
Malcolm Hill--39%/31.4%
Troy Caupain--41%/32.5%
Dorrean Finney-Smith--42.6%/36.8%
Damion Lee--36%/27.3%/39%/34%

So sorry to disappoint you, but yes, players can have outstanding seasons, then drop off the next. And this is just from this years draft class, and not all of them, either. So yes, I'l stand by my statement in that I hope if we draft Hield, he does not end up being a 'one-hit-wonder'--it happens all the time.

[bwgood77]

To use popular logic for Bender: Jaylan Brown compares favorably to Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler at the same age.

Is this based on research, or just throwing it out there? I tried to do comparisons earlier for Brown and Butler wasn't a great comp, nor was George. They were much better. However, someone mentioned Leonard's college shooting numbers earlier, and that is closer, though he doesn't have the wingspan and stuff.

I wouldn't mind Brown, but I'd like to play him at PF quite a bit in the future. If there is one guy that I am really high on with the Suns other than Booker, it is Warren, who was a much better college player than Brown, particularly as a sophomore, but even as a freshman.

As for evidence (not sure if you've watched any of Bender, but here is a video Damkac posted earlier. If you don't want to watch the whole thing, it's at least worth it for the evidence of defense and passing, for defense, a little after the 4 minute mark and for passing, the 5:25 mark. His handle is really good too, and his quickness on perimeter D seems crazy good for a 7 footer.

Passing may be there too. Not sure.

Some of his passes seem to be very high iq and quick thinking passing.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e33qvX9gEGQ[/youtube]

[bwgood77]

Dragan replaces Dragon. The math is simple guys.

viewtopic.php?f=27&t=1394455&start=13#start_here

It's weird there seems to be a lot of anti Dragan around, but today alone I think the votes went from 53 to 57 on him. Though I know most of his backers are less vocal.

[lilfishi22]

I think some are putting too much emphasis on the "serviceable role player" comment by Mr Twister. That entire sentence was a little confusing. I don't want to put words in his mouth but the way I translated his comment was that Bender will likely be a serviceable role player when he enters the league but has the potential to be much more if used and coached correctly. I don't believe he was writing his career off as no more than a role player.

I don't see that at all. He's expected to be a long term project and his likely career is that of a serviceable role player with a small chance he becomes more (as do majority of lotto picks).

I have no opinion on Bender, either way, as all I've seen are clips and it's so tough to accurately assess a player from highlights and lowlights IMO. I was just offering a different interpretation of the comment that so many are reacting to. Perhaps I'm the one that read it wrong but if you read that sentence again (by Mr Twister), I just don't see how it makes sense any other way.

I think the best way for non-professionals like ourselves to assess a player is by looking at the descriptions of a prospect's strengths and weaknesses as detailed by professional scouts. Based on the strengths and weaknesses, I have a hard time seeing star potential.

[AtheJ415]

Well two of his strengths mentioned are perimeter defense and passing. Someone posted a video not too long ago that showed some great passes (some of them no look) for his age.

He's obviously rated in this draft class a lot higher than Draymond was in his though, but Draymond was more ready to contribute more immediately.

Draftexpress raves about his D. You can youtube his strengths video to find evidence of it. Passing may be there too. Not sure.

DraftExpress says "Defensive POTENTIAL" not "GREAT DEFENDER". Plus a lot of those videos of him "checking wings" are him staying like 5 feet in front of them - which is wide open in the NBA...

EDIT: Notice how all of those clips in his "Strengths" video re: defense are of drives. I'd be willing to wager he was defending players with no jump shot whatsoever, hell-bent on getting into the paint.

Exactly, because all 18 year olds defend that way. Or maybe he's just being smart and realizing his wingspan is like 7'5" and that he can bother their shot while still playing off of them to prevent the drive or an easy foul call. At this point, I think there's nothing that could possibly be shown that would have you say a positive thing about Bender. Oh, and when somebody discusses your defensive potential by showing you defending well now, that has meaning. You're being unnecessarily literal because it goes against your opinion of him.

[Mulhollanddrive]

How do you watch the last 5 minutes and not take Buddy Hield.

[Cactus Jack]

How do you watch the last 5 minutes and not take Buddy Hield.

Its awfully tempting ain't it

[saintEscaton]

Draftexpress raves about his D. You can youtube his strengths video to find evidence of it. Passing may be there too. Not sure.

DraftExpress says "Defensive POTENTIAL" not "GREAT DEFENDER". Plus a lot of those videos of him "checking wings" are him staying like 5 feet in front of them - which is wide open in the NBA...

EDIT: Notice how all of those clips in his "Strengths" video re: defense are of drives. I'd be willing to wager he was defending players with no jump shot whatsoever, hell-bent on getting into the paint.

Exactly, because all 18 year olds defend that way. Or maybe he's just being smart and realizing his wingspan is like 7'5" and that he can bother their shot while still playing off of them to prevent the drive or an easy foul call. At this point, I think there's nothing that could possibly be shown that would have you say a positive thing about Bender. Oh, and when somebody discusses your defensive potential by showing you defending well now, that has meaning. You're being unnecessarily literal because it goes against your opinion of him.

I definitely see the intrigue of Bender and wouldn't riot if he gets past Boston and we take him. His wingpspan is 7'2 4 inches less than KP, adequate (25th percentile)but not freakish by any means KP. His standing reach ( 9'3") is elite tho (top 5% percentile) and makes up for his lack of hops, a 24 inch no step vert is underwhelmong to say the least

[Waylay13]

How do you watch the last 5 minutes and not take Buddy Hield.

Really easy I watch Booker play this last year and remember that Hield would take minutes from Booker.

[MrMiyagi]

Draftexpress raves about his D. You can youtube his strengths video to find evidence of it. Passing may be there too. Not sure.

DraftExpress says "Defensive POTENTIAL" not "GREAT DEFENDER". Plus a lot of those videos of him "checking wings" are him staying like 5 feet in front of them - which is wide open in the NBA...

EDIT: Notice how all of those clips in his "Strengths" video re: defense are of drives. I'd be willing to wager he was defending players with no jump shot whatsoever, hell-bent on getting into the paint.

Exactly, because all 18 year olds defend that way. Or maybe he's just being smart and realizing his wingspan is like 7'5" and that he can bother their shot while still playing off of them to prevent the drive or an easy foul call. At this point, I think there's nothing that could possibly be shown that would have you say a positive thing about Bender. Oh, and when somebody discusses your defensive potential by showing you defending well now, that has meaning. You're being unnecessarily literal because it goes against your opinion of him.

No, everyone is saying he has skills he clearly doesn't. Just because you're 18 doesn't mean you get credit for skills you don't have. Notice I don't discredit his jumper looking fine, or that he can run the floor well - those are pretty apparent. His defense and passing I'm extremely skeptical of because there is no real good evidence - just projection or "trust me, he made two passes, he's a good passer".

There are just too many bigs in this draft purported to have athleticism to be serviceable perimeter defenders, length to be rim protectors, and nice enough looking jumpers to develop into 3-pt threats. Bender, Ellenson, Skal, Davis, Chriss, Maker, Zhou Qi, Zimmerman, and I wouldn't be surprised if Zubac, Zizic, Diallo, Damian Jones and Diamond Stone all start working on 3pt shots.

There are just so many raw bigs that'll succeed based on development, that I don't think it's worth drafting one at 4, when there isn't a clear pronouncement that he's a cut above them.

I'm personally on the Buddy bandwagon, with Murray and Dunn as acceptable choices as well. Brown is preferable to Bender, but I don't love him either.

My ideal draft involves us taking Buddy and Valentine at 4 and 13 and Zimmerman at 28. I personally see more in Zimmerman than I do in Bender. He runs the floor well, he rebounds the ball, his shooting needs some work, but he's a pretty good PnR man. I like low-risk, high-reward gambles late. In the lottery, give me guys who'll give me something. Hield can shoot the lights out, Valentine is a proven jack-of-all trades. Plus they seem competitive as hell and have improved each year they've played in college.

[JMac1]

A high risk "Serviceable role player" is seriously the last thing im looking for when drafting at #4. Im either looking for a guaranteed starter or a high risk high reward player. Serviceable role player? That describes Dudley and PJ Tucker.

There are no guaranteed starters, particularly after the top 2. Unfortunately this draft is weak, particularly at the top after the top 2 and at our biggest position of need.

I thought you liked Brown btw. He is far from a guaranteed starter.

But Bender (I assume you are talking about him) that is two poster's assessment here while one of them added "with upside and could be amazing weapon if used and developed properly".

Lets say you do still want Brown. I'd just rather have a guy who may end up being a taller, skinnier version of Draymond Green (opinion of expert) than a guy who MIGHT end up being a guy like Michael Kidd Gilchrist if he reaches full potential.

C'mon BW. I am reading Jimmy Butler, J Rich, Kawhi, Iggy, Masburn, and a bigger Derozan.....never heard of Gilchrist and especially for a ceiling.

Brown doesn't look as half as bad as I heard (see Drummond pre-draft beat down), that's the main reason why I was totally against him, but then I continued to watch and I saw, step backs, spin moves, cross overs, hellacious dunks, shiftiness/change of direction, a non-broken shot, some pull-up J, and unbelievable driving to the hoop. He was a freshmen! If that guy reaches his potential, Kidd Gilchrist!?! Nah...

[bwgood77]

DraftExpress says "Defensive POTENTIAL" not "GREAT DEFENDER". Plus a lot of those videos of him "checking wings" are him staying like 5 feet in front of them - which is wide open in the NBA...

EDIT: Notice how all of those clips in his "Strengths" video re: defense are of drives. I'd be willing to wager he was defending players with no jump shot whatsoever, hell-bent on getting into the paint.

Exactly, because all 18 year olds defend that way. Or maybe he's just being smart and realizing his wingspan is like 7'5" and that he can bother their shot while still playing off of them to prevent the drive or an easy foul call. At this point, I think there's nothing that could possibly be shown that would have you say a positive thing about Bender. Oh, and when somebody discusses your defensive potential by showing you defending well now, that has meaning. You're being unnecessarily literal because it goes against your opinion of him.

No, everyone is saying he has skills he clearly doesn't. Just because you're 18 doesn't mean you get credit for skills you don't have. Notice I don't discredit his jumper looking fine, or that he can run the floor well - those are pretty apparent. His defense and passing I'm extremely skeptical of because there is no real good evidence - just projection or "trust me, he made two passes, he's a good passer".

Pelton: Agreed on all counts regarding Bender and Porzingis. They're different players.

Bender has broader perimeter skills. We didn't see his playmaking much for Maccabi, given his limited role, but Bender's performance for Croatia in the 2014 FIBA U-18 European Championships is instructive. He averaged 4.9 assists, third among all players.

Pelton: Beyond the shooting, the versatility you mention stands out in Bender's translated statistics. As compared to power forwards in the draft, he rates as above average in assist, steal and block rates. In fact, his block percentage ranked fourth in the BSL, and two of the players ahead of him are centers who previously played in the NBA.

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/15676915/is-dragan-bender-next-kristaps-porzingis-nba

[JMac1]

How do you watch the last 5 minutes and not take Buddy Hield.

Its awfully tempting ain't it

I just don't watch, because his clips are the best by far, bar none! Dude looks a longer Steph Curry..........you can't pass on that. Watch him become the best player in the draft and everyone misses because they just can't believe his game will translate, same as everyone did with Curry......teams continue to get burned that way; look at us. No one here wants him

[saintEscaton]

Or watch him end up being a more well rounded Jodie Meeks 2.0

[MrMiyagi]

Exactly, because all 18 year olds defend that way. Or maybe he's just being smart and realizing his wingspan is like 7'5" and that he can bother their shot while still playing off of them to prevent the drive or an easy foul call. At this point, I think there's nothing that could possibly be shown that would have you say a positive thing about Bender. Oh, and when somebody discusses your defensive potential by showing you defending well now, that has meaning. You're being unnecessarily literal because it goes against your opinion of him.

No, everyone is saying he has skills he clearly doesn't. Just because you're 18 doesn't mean you get credit for skills you don't have. Notice I don't discredit his jumper looking fine, or that he can run the floor well - those are pretty apparent. His defense and passing I'm extremely skeptical of because there is no real good evidence - just projection or "trust me, he made two passes, he's a good passer".

Pelton: Agreed on all counts regarding Bender and Porzingis. They're different players.

Bender has broader perimeter skills. We didn't see his playmaking much for Maccabi, given his limited role, but Bender's performance for Croatia in the 2014 FIBA U-18 European Championships is instructive. He averaged 4.9 assists, third among all players.

Pelton: Beyond the shooting, the versatility you mention stands out in Bender's translated statistics. As compared to power forwards in the draft, he rates as above average in assist, steal and block rates. In fact, his block percentage ranked fourth in the BSL, and two of the players ahead of him are centers who previously played in the NBA.

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/15676915/is-dragan-bender-next-kristaps-porzingis-nba

And Stephen Zimmerman and Jaylen Brown were on the u18 Men's National team that dominated the 2014 Fiba Americas championships. Zimmerman had the 2nd most rebounds on team USA and averaged 8.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, a block and a steal in just 15 minutes a game. Jaylen Brown averaged a point a minute for them.

[Kerrsed]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wFYdsjR38M[/youtube]

[bwgood77]

One thing I'd rather not watch is Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless argue.

[Kerrsed]

One thing I'd rather not watch is Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless argue.

[jredsaz]

I mean when the guy on our board that has probably seen Bender the most (MrTwister) and watched the Euroleague the most, calls him a serviceable role player and high risk, that really says something. That scares me. I was actually starting to warm up to the idea of Bender (And REALLY thinking of the idea of a Bender/Noel pairing), but there are just way too many questions.

Yeah, there are just too many bigs that are in a similar mold of "stretch big" that it doesn't make sense to reach for one at 4. We are the only team in the top 5 considering Bender, and if we pass, how far does he fall?

I'm sure BOS is strongly considering Bender.

Pretty sure I read a report that they Love him. I would bet he is the pick at 3 if it is not traded.