2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[payitforward]

It looks like the Wizards FO/owner have no idea whatever of the mess they are in. They like their core, as they say repeatedly. And they think that "now" is somehow their moment. They don't think most of the players on an NBA roster matter. Ernie thinks he can get any kind of "piece" he wants pretty much any time he wants it.

On top of everything, they look at their roster and conclude that they've done well by winding up with 6-players -- no more -- from 19 draft choices in their hands between 2010 and 2016 - including an overall #1, two #3s, a #6, five other R1 picks, three high R2 picks, etc. - a bunch of FA signings, and their sequence of trades (often trades in which they had to deal an asset they acquired and much more to get a next asset -- which they may also have had to add more to in order to trade).

It's unfathomable, really. And, really, it's the arrogance that's most offensive. The absolute conviction that they have done "right" -- they've just been unlucky.

[closg00]

It looks like the Wizards FO/owner have no idea whatever of the mess they are in. They like their core, as they say repeatedly. And they think that "now" is somehow their moment. They don't think most of the players on an NBA roster matter. Ernie thinks he can get any kind of "piece" he wants pretty much any time he wants it.

On top of everything, they look at their roster and conclude that they've done well by winding up with 6-players -- no more -- from 19 draft choices in their hands between 2010 and 2016 - including an overall #1, two #3s, a #6, five other R1 picks, three high R2 picks, etc. - a bunch of FA signings, and their sequence of trades (often trades in which they had to deal an asset they acquired and much more to get a next asset -- which they may also have had to add more to in order to trade).

It's unfathomable, really. And, really, it's the arrogance that's most offensive. The absolute conviction that they have done "right" -- they've just been unlucky.

This is the evil genius of Ernie Grunfeld, it's a double-con that he runs, one on the owner, the other is on the media/fans. Ernie will slap-together whatever and hand it off to Brooks, if what he throws together makes the playoffs, slaps on the back for everyone, If it all goes south, fire the coach and start all over again.

[DCZards]

Hey, Dat. Where you been? I've been asking about you and when you might be back. I missed you...seriously.

[gambitx777]

I wrote this mock offseason....check it out if you get a chance.
http://wizofawes.com/2016/05/26/washington-wizards-free-agency-2016-mock-predictions-2/

I would be pretty happy with your mocks! you put in good thought and team building ideas into them and I look forward to seeing 3.0 if there is one!
But I think you get Whiteside and talk gortat into bench play at 25 minutes a night. Can you imagine the destruction a Whiteside/Gortat rotation would bring on teams! there would be no relief for teams at the 5 spot. You said after that we would have about 8 mill in cap room right. Bring in sato at about 5 bring in arron white and use the rest on a small deal for a back up guard or wing, Maybe dudley takes a pay cut to come back, then use the exception we have left to sign Andrew Nicholson! I really like Nicholson! Then you can fill in the rest of the team at min/vet deals and camp invites for guys like Temple, Eddie, Norris Cole, Vander Blue, David Stockton, Henry Sims, Jimmer Fredette,Jordan Bachynski , Jaron Johnson .
Wall/Sato/one or two of (Temple,Stockton,Cole)
Beal/Sato/ one or two of (Eddie,Blue,Jimmer)
Porter/Kelly/one of (dudley,Jaron Johnson,eddie)
Morris/Nicholson/White
Whiteside/Gortat/one of (sims,Jordan Bachynski, Keith Benson)

I would prefer stockton, cole blue, dudley and sims to fill out the back of the team but I would settle for temple over cole. I really like Bachynski and Jaron too, if you can't swing dudley and sims.

I think that team has second best team in the east potential. You would dominate at the 5, all of your primary 4's can shoot and rebound enough, and all of them play solid D. Porter is comin into his own and this is kellys chance to prove he can play under a HC who will give him a chance. Wall beal sato will probably be an amazing 3 guard rotation. There is enough depth there to cover a beal injury. Sato can swing into full time 2 guard and bule is capable of covering back up duties, he is also a solid ball handler and shooter. The 3 SF (dudley,johnson,eddie) can swing over and play 2 if needed and the (Temple,stockton,Cole) combo can cover satos lost pg minutes behind wall.

[Dat2U]

Hey, Dat. Where you been? I've been asking about you and when you might be back. I missed you...seriously.

I appreciate that Zards, I've been on a self-imposed sabbatical. I've missed all you guys too.

[montestewart]

Hey, Dat. Where you been? I've been asking about you and when you might be back. I missed you...seriously.

I appreciate that Zards, I've been on a self-imposed sabbatical. I've missed all you guys too.

Unlike Nick's, we do need characters around here to give the joint atmosphere.

[AFM]

Dat's disappearance and return coincide with milellie...coincidence??

[gambitx777]

Does anyone else think that andrew nicholson would be a great under the radar signing, he was stuck in a log jam in Orlando, he would be playing with better guards here, and he pretty much has the same game as telatovic (not as productive yet) but is 4 years younger and will probably be 5-10 mill cheaper to sign. I would say we could probably get him for 4 years at 20 mill or so or less.

[CobraCommander]

The Wizards should pick up ANDREW BYNUM... I just realized he is only 28 years young! J/K

Just realized how young he is -

[LyricalRico]

The Wizards should pick up ANDREW BYNUM... I just realized he is only 28 years young! J/K

Just realized how young he is -

Too bad his knees are approx 75...in dog years.

[closg00]

Think about it, we have a skeleton core, no draft picks, and we have to rely on Ernie to put-together a team during the FA scrum. Wow.

[Ruzious]

Does anyone else think that andrew nicholson would be a great under the radar signing, he was stuck in a log jam in Orlando, he would be playing with better guards here, and he pretty much has the same game as telatovic (not as productive yet) but is 4 years younger and will probably be 5-10 mill cheaper to sign. I would say we could probably get him for 4 years at 20 mill or so or less.

Yes, he's a player I recommended during last season for cheap depth - and got blasted by PIF for it. I like his offensive game.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I wrote this mock offseason....check it out if you get a chance.
http://wizofawes.com/2016/05/26/washington-wizards-free-agency-2016-mock-predictions-2/

I like your first scenario better than the second. What would you envision the Wizards getting back for Gortat? It'd be nice if they could get a PF better than Morris, or a SG who can stay on the court. A future first might be okay, except of course the Wizards are in "win now" mode.

For 2.0: Ryan Anderson was a slightly better version of Dudley this season, and will likely get double to triple the salary Dudley gets this offseason.

Crabbe is a good shooter, but his overall performance wasn't all that great last season. He rated as a poor defender in my stuff. He's improved each year of his career, but looks like a low-usage 3&D guy who isn't very impressive on D.

I like Plumlee in the backup role.

Overall, though 2.0 looks like a 40-44 win team -- unless there's dramatic improvement from a player or two, of course.

[payitforward]

I just had an awful thought -- anyone else think Ernie might wheel and deal and wind up with Waiters instead of Beal? Or along w/ Beal?

Put another way, my real fear is that he'll manage to lose us Porter.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I just had an awful thought -- anyone else think Ernie might wheel and deal and wind up with Waiters instead of Beal? Or along w/ Beal?

Put another way, my real fear is that he'll manage to lose us Porter.

This has to be a very real fear because it's Grunfeld.

But...it's not just Grunfeld. On Twitter, there's a basketball writer working for a network (I wish I could remember the names; I think it was someone with CBS) who was fretting about what OKC will do if they're "priced out" of re-signing Waiters. Which assumes a) Waiters is any good; and b) there's going to be robust market for him.

"He's a former fourth overall pick in the draft, who has a lot of potential," future Grunfeld said. "He brings good size, defensive presence and some shooting. Also the versatility to defend multiple positions. He's a guy who I've liked since he was in middle school."

Trading Porter is a serious concern for me too. He's getting significantly underrated by the basketball media around town, and that's sometimes a sign that he's getting talked down by people within the organization. Porter has the profile of a guy who's going to have a good NBA career over the next decade. He probably won't become a star, but he's going to be quite solid.

[pcbothwel]

I just had an awful thought -- anyone else think Ernie might wheel and deal and wind up with Waiters instead of Beal? Or along w/ Beal?

Put another way, my real fear is that he'll manage to lose us Porter.

This has to be a very real fear because it's Grunfeld.

But...it's not just Grunfeld. On Twitter, there's a basketball writer working for a network (I wish I could remember the names; I think it was someone with CBS) who was fretting about what OKC will do if they're "priced out" of re-signing Waiters. Which assumes a) Waiters is any good; and b) there's going to be robust market for him.

"He's a former fourth overall pick in the draft, who has a lot of potential," future Grunfeld said. "He brings good size, defensive presence and some shooting. Also the versatility to defend multiple positions. He's a guy who I've liked since he was in middle school."

Trading Porter is a serious concern for me too. He's getting significantly underrated by the basketball media around town, and that's sometimes a sign that he's getting talked down by people within the organization. Porter has the profile of a guy who's going to have a good NBA career over the next decade. He probably won't become a star, but he's going to be quite solid.

I agree, and it appears that Brooks does too. No way EG deals Porter after the 35M man praised him. The waiters thing slightly frightens me, but I really believe Sato is coming over and he's our backup 2.

[I_Like_Dirt]

This has to be a very real fear because it's Grunfeld.

But...it's not just Grunfeld. On Twitter, there's a basketball writer working for a network (I wish I could remember the names; I think it was someone with CBS) who was fretting about what OKC will do if they're "priced out" of re-signing Waiters. Which assumes a) Waiters is any good; and b) there's going to be robust market for him.

"He's a former fourth overall pick in the draft, who has a lot of potential," future Grunfeld said. "He brings good size, defensive presence and some shooting. Also the versatility to defend multiple positions. He's a guy who I've liked since he was in middle school."

Trading Porter is a serious concern for me too. He's getting significantly underrated by the basketball media around town, and that's sometimes a sign that he's getting talked down by people within the organization. Porter has the profile of a guy who's going to have a good NBA career over the next decade. He probably won't become a star, but he's going to be quite solid.

Nah, man. You're seeing so many fears where there aren't really that many. Really, this is just one single reality: that Porter is going to be part of a sign and trade for Waiters. So really, only one thing to be afraid of, and another way of putting that is that there is barely anything to be afraid of when Ernie is in charge.

Although before you go thinking that Brooks will put a stop to it, remember that Brooks has a history with Waiters and not Porter. Ernie isn't a miracle worker or anything. There will be almost nothing to be afraid of, not nothing to be afraid of.

[nate33]

I just had an awful thought -- anyone else think Ernie might wheel and deal and wind up with Waiters instead of Beal? Or along w/ Beal?

Put another way, my real fear is that he'll manage to lose us Porter.

This has to be a very real fear because it's Grunfeld.

But...it's not just Grunfeld. On Twitter, there's a basketball writer working for a network (I wish I could remember the names; I think it was someone with CBS) who was fretting about what OKC will do if they're "priced out" of re-signing Waiters. Which assumes a) Waiters is any good; and b) there's going to be robust market for him.

"He's a former fourth overall pick in the draft, who has a lot of potential," future Grunfeld said. "He brings good size, defensive presence and some shooting. Also the versatility to defend multiple positions. He's a guy who I've liked since he was in middle school."

Trading Porter is a serious concern for me too. He's getting significantly underrated by the basketball media around town, and that's sometimes a sign that he's getting talked down by people within the organization. Porter has the profile of a guy who's going to have a good NBA career over the next decade. He probably won't become a star, but he's going to be quite solid.

I'm not too worried. Remember that Grunfeld is predictable and unimaginative, and his primary motivation is self preservation. He won't resign Waiters to replace Beal because it would be an admission that he failed by drafting Beal. He'd much rather just overpay Beal. Likewise, he wouldn't trade Porter for Waiters because it would be an admission that he "failed" by drafting Porter (who isn't actually a failure at all). Finally, from a strict logical standpoint, it makes little sense to trade our only starting caliber SF for a SG who will back up Beal (and possibly Sato).

Grunfeld might indeed be dumb enough to trade Porter. But I suspect he would trade Porter for an established veteran who is currently perceived as better than Porter, but with no upside. A guy like Luol Deng fits the bill.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I just had an awful thought -- anyone else think Ernie might wheel and deal and wind up with Waiters instead of Beal? Or along w/ Beal?

Put another way, my real fear is that he'll manage to lose us Porter.

This has to be a very real fear because it's Grunfeld.

But...it's not just Grunfeld. On Twitter, there's a basketball writer working for a network (I wish I could remember the names; I think it was someone with CBS) who was fretting about what OKC will do if they're "priced out" of re-signing Waiters. Which assumes a) Waiters is any good; and b) there's going to be robust market for him.

"He's a former fourth overall pick in the draft, who has a lot of potential," future Grunfeld said. "He brings good size, defensive presence and some shooting. Also the versatility to defend multiple positions. He's a guy who I've liked since he was in middle school."

Trading Porter is a serious concern for me too. He's getting significantly underrated by the basketball media around town, and that's sometimes a sign that he's getting talked down by people within the organization. Porter has the profile of a guy who's going to have a good NBA career over the next decade. He probably won't become a star, but he's going to be quite solid.

I'm not too worried. Remember that Grunfeld is predictable and unimaginative, and his primary motivation is self preservation. He won't resign Waiters to replace Beal because it would be an admission that he failed by drafting Beal. He'd much rather just overpay Beal. Likewise, he wouldn't trade Porter for Waiters because it would be an admission that he "failed" by drafting Porter (who isn't actually a failure at all). Finally, from a strict logical standpoint, it makes little sense to trade our only starting caliber SF for a SG who will back up Beal (and possibly Sato).

Grunfeld might indeed be dumb enough to trade Porter. But I suspect he would trade Porter for an established veteran who is currently perceived as better than Porter, but with no upside. A guy like Luol Deng fits the bill.

Yeah. I wasn't thinking of a Porter for Waiters trade, I was riffing on payitforward's fear that Grunfeld would find a way to trade Porter for Someone. As you suggest, that's more likely to be a veteran than a guy like Waiters.

As to Deng specifically -- wow that would be a horrible trade for the Wizards. Deng and Porter rated about the same in PPA this season (slight edge to Porter). Deng has been a good player, but he'll be 31, which means he's probably going to start declining. Porter will be 23 next season.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Finally, from a strict logical standpoint, it makes little sense to trade our only starting caliber SF for a SG who will back up Beal (and possibly Sato).

It does make sense to trade your underwhelming starting SF after your major free agent splash, Jeff Green, is cemented as the team's obviously overqualified starting SF. Plus, Waiters has conference finals experience, which the Wizards will be needing once the clear leaders of the team and some of its best players like Jared Dudley and Nene move on. That said, you're probably right about a more established vet who has proven himself better than Waiters. Tyson Chandler for Porter and a top 10 protected 1st round pick does seem a bit more logical. Damn... I have to stop now, the possibilities are pretty depressing.