tsherkin wrote:Cheers, folks; peeking in from elsewhere to come badger ken and TMU.
Ha, late on this. My excuse: too busy dealing with them KD haters on GB to care about your little essay here...
tsherkin wrote:Daaaaaang, the league was fast relative to recent seasons, right? And the Rockets are themselves trending upwards in pace consistently from year to year. But that average pace hasn't come with an attendant increase in league offensive efficacy. So yeah, the Rockets will run, and they've generally proven willing to play at among the fastest tempos in the league, but they don't have a team full of shooters... and they don't even have that many particularly GOOD shooters, which further undermines the idea that they should play a ton faster than they're already playing (mind that league-high pace this season was 100.0... but that was Sacramento, at 106.0 ORTG in a 106.4 ORTG league environment).
There is more to just running. You can't have the team running if they are a bunch of Tony Allens. This actually shows why Parsons was so valuable during his first 3 years in Houston, because while averaging a league top 3 distance covered per game, he also had relative low turnovers thanks to his bball IQ and handles. He is also pretty good a varying his speed by blending pull ups and ball fakes into his rhythm. You reference of Kings exactly shows that - forcing a higher pace than what you can afford directly results in a league average ORTG. JBB is a terrible coach, but he knows we have no chance against Warriors' defense if they are all set, so our only chance is to run them apart. Result of that? We keep ending up with confused 3 pointers in 3-on-1 fast break situations, and we hurt our defensive rebounding by leaking out early.
tsherkin wrote:MDA will have them running, but will that add value to the team? I imagine he'll organize their breakout a little more effectively, because he was good about that... but he doesn't have Amare Stoudemire with his sick mid-range jumper to run around post screens for jumpers, and of course Dwight is a giant pain about running PNR sets, which are the mainstay of MDA's offensive philosophy, and of course Harden is nothing like Nash as a playmaker. This is going to be a rough spot for MDA: he's not shown a ton of adaptability as a coach, and has only really had success with Nash, and doesn't seem to have the ability to reach Howard and make him not be stupid. If he opts out, then the team is going to have to hope for a lot of major steps forward in order to really get going. Historically, lots of teams with weak offensive talent have tried to push the tempo in order to compete. Now obviously, Harden isn't "weak offensive talent," but the Rockets have no punch or creators outside of Harden if Dwight opts out.
MDA hasn't shown anything new after his Phoenix days. He still has the bragging rights of being one of the 4 coaches who won 60+W in multiple seasons (Doc, Kerr, Pop), but that's about it. A guy lives in the past just like Doc. I actually think JVG adapts into the modern game better than MDA does, by listening to JVG on TV. MDA is just not a great basketball mind. Of course, anything is better than JBB at this point. My only hope now is if he can work something out and get our new shooters some good looks, we will have our 3pt game going at least. Dekker and KJ do have the ability to run the floor however I think they will still need time to learn MDA's system. Will see how the training camp goes. Regarding punch creators, we have Eric Gordon now since you wrote your post, so there is that. I can see a Harden+Gordon back court getting some heavy minutes, with Harden being the de facto PG.
tsherkin wrote:Should be a very interesting season, though, as far as evaluating what MDA has as a coach. What can he contribute that the Rockets don't already do? Might he help Harden improve as a playmaker? Will he try to get Harden off-ball a little more? The addition of Bzdelik is also a little interesting, from a defensive perspective. It's nice that MAD is willing to work with what is pretty clearly a defensive assistant addition, since that's a thing he refused in Phoenix years ago. I guess he's looking for a little redemption after doing nothing of consequence in New York or Los Angeles.
Bzdelik on defence and Oppenheimer on shooting is a likeable combination. At the end of the day, it comes down to Harden buying into MDA's system because Harden is all it is about. I don't believe the defensive effort need to come from coaching - if guys get it going in a structured offence and enjoying their roles, the momentum will inevitably help with the defense. Rockets 14-15 season is the perfect example, top 10 defense + top 1 3pt defense, before slumping to bottom 10 + bottom 3 the next season (while magically maintaining a top 10 offense), with pretty much the same roster. For that reason, I am actually not too worried about Harden gives a damn or not lol.
tsherkin wrote:Lots of questions, but there is this: they won't be worse, and there's some potential that they could improve. Morey's got some work to do, but this is a team that was a WCF squad as recently as last season. They don't have the stuff to compete with the Warriors or the Spurs (if San Antonio is able to repeat what they produced this season or last season), but they could be a second-round squad if they manage to sort out some of those details and if Dwight sticks around. Will be an eventful off-season and I'm curious to see what Morey does.
Don't know what y'all got, I think this is the year SAS drops off a bit floating around #4 #5 seed. Jazz replaces it. It might also be the year that a weakened SW division can finally gives us Rockets a break, with us ourselves weakened a bit at the same time. That NW division though is scary, might all end up with 40+W taking wins off each other without a clearcut superpower.