Not In The Face - The Jeremy Lin Thread 3 + 1

[yosemiteben]

I think it really all depends on FA. If we want to make a run at a top tier FA, we're already going to be squeezed with our cap space and JLin above the room MLE is just not going to happen.

If we pass on / can't land a top tier FA this summer but want to preserve cap space for a big fish next summer, we have to think through whether it makes sense to commit next summer's cap space on JLin. After we sign our FAs this season we aren't going to have a ton of money next summer - it really won't make sense to bring back the crew if we want to be a player in the FA market next season unless some folks are willing to consider one 1 year deals.

I know that Lin fans and JLin have said that larger contracts show investment and decrease the likelihood that his role is reduced, but at the same time larger contracts also decrease value and make it more likely that he'll be traded if necessary to create cap space. If we pay $8M to Lin and then his shot and offensive efficiency don't improve, he's not a great fit with Kemba and Batum and doesn't close out games over MKG, then I think it's pretty likely that he would get traded because the value won't be there and it's just an inefficient use of resources.

[qiantom]

I think it really all depends on FA. If we want to make a run at a top tier FA, we're already going to be squeezed with our cap space and JLin above the room MLE is just not going to happen.

If we pass on / can't land a top tier FA this summer but want to preserve cap space for a big fish next summer, we have to think through whether it makes sense to commit next summer's cap space on JLin. After we sign our FAs this season we aren't going to have a ton of money next summer - it really won't make sense to bring back the crew if we want to be a player in the FA market next season unless some folks are willing to consider one 1 year deals.

I know that Lin fans and JLin have said that larger contracts show investment and decrease the likelihood that his role is reduced, but at the same time larger contracts also decrease value and make it more likely that he'll be traded if necessary to create cap space. If we pay $8M to Lin and then his shot and offensive efficiency don't improve, he's not a great fit with Kemba and Batum and doesn't close out games over MKG, then I think it's pretty likely that he would get traded because the value won't be there and it's just an inefficient use of resources.

I agree with most of your points except that I do not think $8M is that hard to live up to. Jeremy Lamb is paid $7M a year. Corey Joseph who plays behind Lowry and Derozan is paid $7M+ a year. Even if $8M is not a good use of money for Charlotte, it would be very easy to find a taker on the market for one of the best backup PGs in the league.

So my point is if Lin is willing to take $8M from Hornets, I do not see a good reason why the team should not retain him. The worst thing that could happen is to trade him in the future when cap space is needed.

[13th Man]

If Lin can get 12 mil as a starter, but Hornets offer him only 8 because they is as high as they can go due to salary cap, is that insulting to Lin? Or is that just reality of situation? Nothing more, nothing less.

I think that'd be a reasonable offer from the Hornets given their cap situation. If the Hornets were in a situation where they could spare a few more bucks I'm sure they would.

[bws94]

If Lin can get 12 mil as a starter, but Hornets offer him only 8 because they is as high as they can go due to salary cap, is that insulting to Lin? Or is that just reality of situation? Nothing more, nothing less.

I think that'd be a reasonable offer from the Hornets given their cap situation. If the Hornets were in a situation where they could spare a few more bucks I'm sure they would.

$8 million is the number I think to offer. Lin either takes or not, but is a fair offer given the Hornets cap situation. The MLE talk I still object to. I wouldn't ask Marvin or Lee for that either.

[Mystical Apples]

MLE stuff, I just don't think it's respectful to ask Lin to accept it. If it's a formality, ok, but it sends a bad message to me. Pay him something that says you're worth something to us that won't break the bank.

I think ultimately, Lin is just a guy you put on the floor and play around 27-32 minutes..... And I think he'll player better next season, shoot better, and have better stats.

The message is Lin had a pedestrian year, Lin will opt out of a situation he helped create, CHA doesn't hold his Bird Rights, and there are relatively plentiful competing options because there's a relatively plentiful supply of 6'2" humans who play basketball.

And sure his shot could improve. Or as a 28-year-old it may not and instead he loses a step which renders him less effective than in 2015-16. Ignoring downside risk is unwise for any investment, let alone one in a salary capped business.

[yosemiteben]

The MLE talk I still object to. I wouldn't ask Marvin or Lee for that either.

They both were immensely more valuable than Lin was last season though. Lin had some good games, I get that, but on the whole he was not as effective as either Lee or Lin.

[bws94]

The MLE talk I still object to. I wouldn't ask Marvin or Lee for that either.

They both were immensely more valuable than Lin was last season though. Lin had some good games, I get that, but on the whole he was not as effective as either Lee or Lin.

That's our disagreement. In fact, I don't find Lee that valuable, he was a nice addition but he overall didn't have the impact Lin had IMO. Marvin had a big impact and I think he should be payed well. In the playoffs, Lin was most valuable. Team doesn't win game 3 and 4 without Lin. Lin played a huge role in getting Cliff his first playoff win. Lin didn't do it by himself, but played a key role.

Lin may have had a down year in some ways, but those that bring stats in all of the time miss my major point of against big teams, he came up big. And that ultimately affected the Hornets seeding in the playoffs.

[qiantom]

The MLE talk I still object to. I wouldn't ask Marvin or Lee for that either.

They both were immensely more valuable than Lin was last season though. Lin had some good games, I get that, but on the whole he was not as effective as either Lee or Lin.

YB you exaggerate too much when discussing Lin. I don't know if you get infected by some overzealous Lin fans...

How can Lee be immensely more valuable than Lin considering Lee only played 28 games for the Hornets?

[fatlever]

That's our disagreement. In fact, I don't find Lee that valuable, he was a nice addition but he overall didn't have the impact Lin had IMO. Marvin had a big impact and I think he should be payed well. In the playoffs, Lin was most valuable. Team doesn't win game 3 and 4 without Lin. Lin played a huge role in getting Cliff his first playoff win. Lin didn't do it by himself, but played a key role.

I'm not saying you are right or wrong, but the same logic can be applied to Lee. We don't win some of those games without those massive offensive rebounds from Lee or that huge 3pter he made at the end of the game or his defense on Wade the entire series.

I'd also point to our overall record after we traded for Lee. (edit: 23-12 including playoffs)

That being said, I'd still lean Lin over Lee purely because I think MKG take away most of the role Lee played for us. Paying Lee 10+(?) mil to be the backup SG is also not the best idea, but at least we dont have to use cap room to make it happen.

[Roy Tarpley]

I actually think that there's not that much disagreement among everyone in this thread and we're just nitpicking at the margins.

We all know the facts here. There's a slim chance that Lin will stay in Charlotte -- he'd have to not have any good options elsewhere and he'd have to be offered anywhere around $6-8m. If he stays, great -- I look forward to seeing him with a healthy MKG though I know that his playing time would be around 20min/game or less unless Lamb is screwed. If he goes, I hope he chooses a good situation where he will start -- what's the point of leaving a good situation like Charlotte unless you can pursue your dream as a starter (unless SAS asks him to backup Tony Parker).

I still think the Lamb question is the more interesting one. What the hell does the team do about him?

[yosemiteben]

Lee post-ASB: 30 MPG, 9 points, 44.5% FG, 39.2% 3PT, 54.0% TS, 3.1 boards, 2.1 ast, 0.8 to, 2.5:1 TO ratio, 1.2 stl, 6.0 net rating

Lin post-ASB: 25 MPG, 11 points, 39.6% FG, 35.5% 3PT, 53% TS, 3.2 boards, 2.5 ast, 2.0 tos, 1.5:1 TO ratio, 0.9 stl, 0.6 net rating

My argument is that Lee was a more efficient shooter and a better defender than JLin. There is no argument as to who is the better combo guard next to Batum and Kemba. I would guess many Lin fans would acknowledge that plugging Lin in next to Batum and Kemba takes the ball out of his hands and thus reduces his effectiveness.

It's not really a slam on JLin - CLee is one of the best 3&D guys in the business. I just think you have to ignore large portions of our season if you want to act like JLin on the whole was more effective. CLee is better suited as a low usage sniper offensively and is an elite perimeter wing defender.

JLin played big in a couple playoff games, yes, but CLee was immensely important as well. He played huge minutes in the playoffs (37 MPG, playing 42 minutes in Games 2-4 and 40 minutes in Game 6) and just was less effective offensively because we didn't have Batum in there helping with our ball movement. CLee still shot 44% from three and over 90% from the FT line in the playoffs, he just didn't force enough of his offense.

[tonman]

Lee post-ASB: 30 MPG, 9 points, 44.5% FG, 39.2% 3PT, 54.0% TS, 3.1 boards, 2.1 ast, 0.8 to, 2.5:1 TO ratio, 1.2 stl, 6.0 net rating

Lin post-ASB: 25 MPG, 11 points, 39.6% FG, 35.5% 3PT, 53% TS, 3.2 boards, 2.5 ast, 2.0 tos, 1.5:1 TO ratio, 0.9 stl, 0.6 net rating

My argument is that Lee was a more efficient shooter and a better defender than JLin. There is no argument as to who is the better combo guard next to Batum and Kemba. I would guess many Lin fans would acknowledge that plugging Lin in next to Batum and Kemba takes the ball out of his hands and thus reduces his effectiveness.

It's not really a slam on JLin - CLee is one of the best 3&D guys in the business. I just think you have to ignore large portions of our season if you want to act like JLin on the whole was more effective. CLee is better suited as a low usage sniper offensively and is an elite perimeter wing defender.

and yet despite playing starters minutes for the entire season and playoffs, lee never scored over 18 pts in a game. again, the playing next to Kemba and Batum is one thing, the you have Kemba or Batum down, who you gonna roll with is another question. hope for good health.

[Roy Tarpley]

I'm as big a Lin-stan as can be, but I can't discount the atrocious stretch he had in the second half, and the overall disappearance of his shot and finishing ability this year. Having watched him for 5 years, I can't explain what happened to his shot except for the default explanation that he was re-working his shooting form and it hadn't settled in yet.

If he stays, I hope Cliff can rejigger the minutes to give Lin some good time. It's possible:

PG: Walker (34); Lin (14)
SG: Batum (14); Lin (14); Lamb (20)
SF: MKG (30); Batum (18)
PF: Williams (28); Kaminsky (20)
C: Zeller (30); Hawes/Mr. X (18)

[yosemiteben]

and yet despite playing starters minutes for the entire season and playoffs, lee never scored over 18 pts in a game.

How is that a relevant data point? Our offense was far improved while Lee was here even with JLin getting less minutes and posting lower efficiency post-ASB, so it's not like he hurt us offensively.

again, the playing next to Kemba and Batum is one thing, the you have Kemba or Batum down, who you gonna roll with is another question.

Well it'd be a lot easier to absorb that loss if we have a top tier FA plugged in as a starter, which we pretty much can't have if we give Lin an $8M deal.

[yosemiteben]

I'm as big a Lin-stan as can be, but I can't discount the atrocious stretch he had in the second half, and the overall disappearance of his shot and finishing ability this year. Having watched him for 5 years, I can't explain what happened to his shot except for the default explanation that he was re-working his shooting form and it hadn't settled in yet.

If he stays, I hope Cliff can rejigger the minutes to give Lin some good time. It's possible:

PG: Walker (34); Lin (14)
SG: Batum (14); Lin (14); Lamb (20)
SF: MKG (30); Batum (18)
PF: Williams (28); Kaminsky (20)
C: Zeller (30); Hawes/Mr. X (18)

I'm not 100% opposed to just keeping Batum, CLee, Marv, and JLin and moving on from there. We could bring back all our FAs other than Big Al and be able to pay JLin a $7-8M deal. I like the idea of dropping down our starter's minutes, especially Kemba, Nic, and MKG, just to help them stay healthy, so a more robust bench squad would be great. The downside to that is you are burning your summer 2016 and 2017 cap space without adding top tier elite talent, and at the very least we're going to need to add another big because we aren't sure how Cody's body will hold up to playing C full time. I suppose if those FAs we bring back continue to perform well any combination of those guys would be extremely valuable as trade assets to a contender or a team trying to jump start a playoff run. I have more confidence in our bigs than most and I am higher than most on Hawes's potential next season.

With all that said, I want to be able to swing for the fences on a top tier FA, and bringing back the crew just won't allow that.

[spaceballer]

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[bws94]

I'm as big a Lin-stan as can be, but I can't discount the atrocious stretch he had in the second half, and the overall disappearance of his shot and finishing ability this year. Having watched him for 5 years, I can't explain what happened to his shot except for the default explanation that he was re-working his shooting form and it hadn't settled in yet.

If he stays, I hope Cliff can rejigger the minutes to give Lin some good time. It's possible:

PG: Walker (34); Lin (14)
SG: Batum (14); Lin (14); Lamb (20)
SF: MKG (30); Batum (18)
PF: Williams (28); Kaminsky (20)
C: Zeller (30); Hawes/Mr. X (18)

I agree with you. Lin had a lot of issues last season. His shot was pretty awful most of the season. He still showed some bad tendencies in terms of running into traps and such. He in no way is a perfect player without significant holes in his game. But it remains, he was consistently strong and made a difference and sometimes the difference in clutch situations and in big games, especially when Batum was out. That's the value I'm trying to bring out as that intangible that makes him value. Plus he adds depth to a team. Some other intangibles that stats don't show is getting key guys in foul trouble. You get them out of the game, you get a chance for more penalty foul shots, so that's something that is very valuable for a team. He also tended to make some key defensive plays and get key rebounds. It's not the number that was impressive, it was when he got them.

I'm all for Lin at around 28 minutes. The yo-yoing of Lin's minutes is sometimes necessary, but for the best production, consistent minutes are best for any player.

[Mystical Apples]

I'd very much expect plenty of Lee, MKG, and Batum together. Not sure why a frequently over-matched Lin at SG is inherently acceptable vs. the additive benefits of 3 wings who switch + Lee's historical 38% from 3.

Add Lamb + Marvin + a rangy 6'5" combo would give Charlotte a critical mass of versatility to implement and practice defensive possibilities backstopped by a rim protector. Or add mobility from Cody + Frank to unlock other creative options, like when Clifford threw out a match-up zone last year.

[Roy Tarpley]

I agree with fatlever that you can have Lin or Lee but not both.

[bws94]

I'm as big a Lin-stan as can be, but I can't discount the atrocious stretch he had in the second half, and the overall disappearance of his shot and finishing ability this year. Having watched him for 5 years, I can't explain what happened to his shot except for the default explanation that he was re-working his shooting form and it hadn't settled in yet.

If he stays, I hope Cliff can rejigger the minutes to give Lin some good time. It's possible:

PG: Walker (34); Lin (14)
SG: Batum (14); Lin (14); Lamb (20)
SF: MKG (30); Batum (18)
PF: Williams (28); Kaminsky (20)
C: Zeller (30); Hawes/Mr. X (18)

I'm not 100% opposed to just keeping Batum, CLee, Marv, and JLin and moving on from there. We could bring back all our FAs other than Big Al and be able to pay JLin a $7-8M deal. I like the idea of dropping down our starter's minutes, especially Kemba, Nic, and MKG, just to help them stay healthy, so a more robust bench squad would be great. The downside to that is you are burning your summer 2016 and 2017 cap space without adding top tier elite talent, and at the very least we're going to need to add another big because we aren't sure how Cody's body will hold up to playing C full time. I suppose if those FAs we bring back continue to perform well any combination of those guys would be extremely valuable as trade assets to a contender or a team trying to jump start a playoff run. I have more confidence in our bigs than most and I am higher than most on Hawes's potential next season.

With all that said, I want to be able to swing for the fences on a top tier FA, and bringing back the crew just won't allow that.

You never know with a top FA. I was a Yankee fan in the 1980s and one thing Steinbrenner did was bring in top FAs and it didn't work. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. I'm all for improving a team through FAs, but you need depth, chemistry too. Some combination of factors that sometimes you just can't predict. I think the team lacked a rim protector, that ultimately made a difference with the Heat. And also, we lacked a Wade type who had the experience to make shots he wasn't supposed to make against a guy playing great D on him in Courtney Lee. So, I think depth and chemistry plus that standout area of need, IMO a rim protector, can take the team to the next level. Past the Cavs? I don't know. Past Toronto, Heat, Atlanta? That's the next step.