'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#781 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 9, 2016 7:11 pm

PaulieWal wrote:Your attempts at downplaying LeBron at this point are beyond laughable.

Curry missed games in the PS = 6
LeBron = 0

For you it seems like it's not a big deal. For some of us it is.

If you wanna make legit arguments for Curry like Q or others are doing, then do so. Don't pull your typical "JB arguments" like never won with a franchise or some other bizarre qualifier which has 0 to do with basketball play on the court.


Hey man, Curry has lost a game 3 in all his series so far and has gone on to win all of them. LeBron hasn't won every series while losing game 3 so Curry has faced more adversity, so Curry > LeBron because of game 3's.

I currently have:

LeBron
Curry
Westbrook
Durant
Kawhi

I am sure on most of this, and unless LeBron gets injured, I don't see this changing.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#782 » by mikejames23 » Thu Jun 9, 2016 7:25 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:People are coming back with great stuff. Another question as food for thought:

If you were to rank LeBron, Durant, and Westbrook based on who gives you the best chance to win a title based on their work this year - trying not to be a slave to context of course since two of those guys are on one team - how would you rank them and why? And by this I mean based on an assessment of the competitive advantages each gives you.

Feel free to include other guys as well.



I think you just go LeBron for this. I am still baffled by how this dude takes this 12th man version of Richard Jefferson, a J.R. Smith who should NEVER be starting, and somehow makes Cleveland compete at a finals level. Still. Baffled. And he’s been doing this forever now. Back in 2007, there was Daniel Gibson, or whatever he got from whoever the rest of his supporting cast was. A decade of play at this level (with a down year in 2011), is pretty incredible. For me as a team builder, this ability by LeBron is a massive luxury. Massive. The flip side as we all know is you gotta pick the right kind of star so that it works out with LeBron’s style of play… but man, between these three you listed, LeBron’s my clear #1 for a run at the title.

Durant vs. Westbrook is a good debate. Gun to my head and I go Durant. Westbrook clearly has meant more for OKC this year, but at the end of the day I feel what Durant can bring to a title contender is more reliable than what Westbrook brings on the floor, especially now that I see how his 6’11” size can be used to create mismatches of all kinds on the defensive end as well. HIs scoring efficiency vs SA was also extremely impressive. I would argue SA’s defense hasn’t been this good since Duncan was in his prime, and to have come through the way he did in the last 5 games of the series was incredible. If you want someone that's ridiculous, a beast, electrifying and can unpredictably turn the tables around - it's certainly Westbrook. I would just prefer to have a little more certainty w/ my team, however.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#783 » by Nbafanatic » Thu Jun 9, 2016 8:04 pm

Fundamentals21 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:People are coming back with great stuff. Another question as food for thought:

If you were to rank LeBron, Durant, and Westbrook based on who gives you the best chance to win a title based on their work this year - trying not to be a slave to context of course since two of those guys are on one team - how would you rank them and why? And by this I mean based on an assessment of the competitive advantages each gives you.

Feel free to include other guys as well.



I think you just go LeBron for this. I am still baffled by how this dude takes this 12th man version of Richard Jefferson, a J.R. Smith who should NEVER be starting, and somehow makes Cleveland compete at a finals level. Still. Baffled. And he’s been doing this forever now. Back in 2007, there was Daniel Gibson, or whatever he got from whoever the rest of his supporting cast was. A decade of play at this level (with a down year in 2011), is pretty incredible. For me as a team builder, this ability by LeBron is a massive luxury. Massive. The flip side as we all know is you gotta pick the right kind of star so that it works out with LeBron’s style of play… but man, between these three you listed, LeBron’s my clear #1 for a run at the title.

Durant vs. Westbrook is a good debate. Gun to my head and I go Durant. Westbrook clearly has meant more for OKC this year, but at the end of the day I feel what Durant can bring to a title contender is more reliable than what Westbrook brings on the floor, especially now that I see how his 6’11” size can be used to create mismatches of all kinds on the defensive end as well. HIs scoring efficiency vs SA was also extremely impressive. I would argue SA’s defense hasn’t been this good since Duncan was in his prime, and to have come through the way he did in the last 5 games of the series was incredible. If you want someone that's ridiculous, a beast, electrifying and can unpredictably turn the tables around - it's certainly Westbrook. I would just prefer to have a little more certainty w/ my team, however.


Right now, I have:

1-Curry
2-Lebron
3-Leonard
4-Durant
5-Westbrook

Count me in too for those who thinks Durant was a little better than Goatbrook. Durant's defensive series against the Warriors really had me impressed in contrast with too many defensive mistakes by Westbrook in the same series.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#784 » by E-Balla » Thu Jun 9, 2016 8:18 pm

Quotatious wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
Spoiler:
Fundamentals21 wrote:I called this win in the LeBron thread when Love was doubtful. Love didn't play, was replaced a guy who barely sees playing time anymore, and they win this game handily.

Anyway, I am not overly concerned for GSW. At some point, Steph and Klay will hit their shots, as they have done all season. I would just like to see a good entertaining series rather than a short one, however.

Nothing entertaining about 3 blowouts man. I'd rather see a contested sweep like OKC vs Dallas in 2012.



Mid Finals update to my top 5:

1. Russell Westbrook
Image

Was writing up why Lebron was the easy choice at number one when I realized I couldn't explain why he was over Westbrook. Westbrook had the better regular season, better first round, better second round (I mean look at who he played), and vs Golden State he averaged 27/7/11/4 on 51 TS% with a 14 TOV% (Lebron is averaging 25/10/8 on 53 TS% with a 19 TOV%). OKC played 2 of the GOAT teams in the playoffs and they won one series while taking the other to 7. Gotta give it to him.

2. Lebron James
Image

Easy choice. He's been underwhelming in the Finals and I had him first before seeing him play worse than Westbrook vs Golden State. Last game was very good but he basically just played D and held the lead after Kyrie got them the lead in the first. Hell his 2nd quarter performance even let them back in the game. Not bashing what's a good game but he wasn't as good as his boxscore would indicate. Still he's good enough for the 2nd spot here so he's doing something well.

3. Kawhi Leonard
Image

Best regular season defensive player and slightly best offensive player on a top 5 offense. He was 4th in my initial rankings and he maintained his standing here (someone else who's pretty obvious at this point dropped). His performance vs OKC was highly criticized but he was good for half the series (literally 3 out of 6 games) and he averaged 23/7/4 on 55 TS% while being the 2nd best player on the team. Not amazing but very good and good enough to be top 3.

4. Kevin Durant
Image

His regular season was around 5th to me and his postseason performance was below what is expected from him but Draymond played so bad against his defense he robbed what should've been his spot. Sometimes you forget just how toolsy KD is but his domination of Draymond defensively made us remember. He also showed up well against San Antonio so even though his performance against Dallas was painful I had to pick him.

5. Stephen Curry
Image

His GOAT regular season isn't taken lightly enough to drop him out completely but his postseason has been nothing short of a disaster. To start even when he's played he's been the 4th best playoff performer if I'm generous, there's no individual series where he was the best player on the floor (thanks to his injury in rounds 1 and 2 and his performance in round 3 and the Finals), and he missed 6 games (he could've missed the first 2 against Cleveland too because he wasn't tipping the scales at all or even really impacting the game much). On top of that he's coming off a game where he was the worst player on his team and Cleveland seemed to make it an offensive priority to attack his defense. I'm big on the postseason so the injury dropped him to 3rd but his performance in the Finals has been anything but worthy. And the worst part of it all is that he's not even shooting badly. He has a 59 TS% in the Finals so far - he's just being super passive (and while I could let him slide for that when they were winning he can't get a pass when he has 2 pts, 4 tovs, and is down nearly 20 at half because he wants to make Vine clips by over dribbling instead of shooting)

Curry 5th?! :o :o Below Kawhi Leonard?! Give me a break, man. Wouldn't expect that coming from such a good poster as you usually are. Can't take that seriously.

Curry is averaging 24/6/6 on 61% TS in the playoffs. You know how many players averaged at least 24 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.5 apg for at least a 14-game playoff run? It happened 32 times, it's been done by 14 players - Rick Barry (once), Larry Bird (five times), Kobe Bryant (twice), Stephen Curry (this year so far), Clyde Drexler (once), Walt Frazier (once), Blake Griffin (once), James Harden (once), John Havlicek (three times), LeBron James (six times), Michael Jordan (five times), Dwyane Wade (twice), Jerry West (once), Russell Westbrook (twice).

If we add another criterion - 61% TS or more, there are only four such seasons - 1986 Bird, 2009 LeBron, 2015 Harden and 2016 Curry.

I'll take that "disaster" from my star player, any day of the week.

Also, even just implying that any Warrior other than Green and Thompson comes close to Curry in the playoffs, is ridiculous. Iguodala is a nice player, but I would never put a role player like him anywhere near a star like Curry, no matter how much worse Curry plays relative to his RS standards, or how much better Iguodala plays relative to his RS standards. Their standards are just so light years apart that Curry is still clearly better even as he's struggling a bit.

Obviously I also think that Curry has been disappointing in the playoffs so far, but that's mostly because his regular season standards were so absurdly high (and also the fact that he missed 6 playoff games due to injuries, is sort of an extenuation).

How many games did those other guys miss? If you miss a whole series worth of games you at least need to be the best postseason performer to not lose a lot of ground. Between 6 missed games and him getting outplayed by his backup in the Finals I couldn't justify taking him over someone like Kawhi who was very good in the playoffs or KD who toasted San Antonio and played great D vs GSW.
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Re: Re: Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#785 » by RSCD3_ » Thu Jun 9, 2016 8:37 pm

Fundamentals21 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:People are coming back with great stuff. Another question as food for thought:

If you were to rank LeBron, Durant, and Westbrook based on who gives you the best chance to win a title based on their work this year - trying not to be a slave to context of course since two of those guys are on one team - how would you rank them and why? And by this I mean based on an assessment of the competitive advantages each gives you.

Feel free to include other guys as well.



I think you just go LeBron for this. I am still baffled by how this dude takes this 12th man version of Richard Jefferson, a J.R. Smith who should NEVER be starting, and somehow makes Cleveland compete at a finals level. Still. Baffled. And he’s been doing this forever now. Back in 2007, there was Daniel Gibson, or whatever he got from whoever the rest of his supporting cast was. A decade of play at this level (with a down year in 2011), is pretty incredible. For me as a team builder, this ability by LeBron is a massive luxury. Massive. The flip side as we all know is you gotta pick the right kind of star so that it works out with LeBron’s style of play… but man, between these three you listed, LeBron’s my clear #1 for a run at the title.

Durant vs. Westbrook is a good debate. Gun to my head and I go Durant. Westbrook clearly has meant more for OKC this year, but at the end of the day I feel what Durant can bring to a title contender is more reliable than what Westbrook brings on the floor, especially now that I see how his 6’11” size can be used to create mismatches of all kinds on the defensive end as well. HIs scoring efficiency vs SA was also extremely impressive. I would argue SA’s defense hasn’t been this good since Duncan was in his prime, and to have come through the way he did in the last 5 games of the series was incredible. If you want someone that's ridiculous, a beast, electrifying and can unpredictably turn the tables around - it's certainly Westbrook. I would just prefer to have a little more certainty w/ my team, however.



Your selling Richard a bit short here

Dude isnt some end of the bench guy, he average 18 MPG as a back up and shot 58.5 Ts% on limited volume in the regular season, he's been a decent piece not some d leaguer brought in just before the playoffs
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#786 » by E-Balla » Thu Jun 9, 2016 8:40 pm

KD35Brah wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
Spoiler:
Fundamentals21 wrote:I called this win in the LeBron thread when Love was doubtful. Love didn't play, was replaced a guy who barely sees playing time anymore, and they win this game handily.

Anyway, I am not overly concerned for GSW. At some point, Steph and Klay will hit their shots, as they have done all season. I would just like to see a good entertaining series rather than a short one, however.

Nothing entertaining about 3 blowouts man. I'd rather see a contested sweep like OKC vs Dallas in 2012.



Mid Finals update to my top 5:

1. Russell Westbrook
Image

Was writing up why Lebron was the easy choice at number one when I realized I couldn't explain why he was over Westbrook. Westbrook had the better regular season, better first round, better second round (I mean look at who he played), and vs Golden State he averaged 27/7/11/4 on 51 TS% with a 14 TOV% (Lebron is averaging 25/10/8 on 53 TS% with a 19 TOV%). OKC played 2 of the GOAT teams in the playoffs and they won one series while taking the other to 7. Gotta give it to him.

2. Lebron James
Image

Easy choice. He's been underwhelming in the Finals and I had him first before seeing him play worse than Westbrook vs Golden State. Last game was very good but he basically just played D and held the lead after Kyrie got them the lead in the first. Hell his 2nd quarter performance even let them back in the game. Not bashing what's a good game but he wasn't as good as his boxscore would indicate. Still he's good enough for the 2nd spot here so he's doing something well.

3. Kawhi Leonard
Image

Best regular season defensive player and slightly best offensive player on a top 5 offense. He was 4th in my initial rankings and he maintained his standing here (someone else who's pretty obvious at this point dropped). His performance vs OKC was highly criticized but he was good for half the series (literally 3 out of 6 games) and he averaged 23/7/4 on 55 TS% while being the 2nd best player on the team. Not amazing but very good and good enough to be top 3.

4. Kevin Durant
Image

His regular season was around 5th to me and his postseason performance was below what is expected from him but Draymond played so bad against his defense he robbed what should've been his spot. Sometimes you forget just how toolsy KD is but his domination of Draymond defensively made us remember. He also showed up well against San Antonio so even though his performance against Dallas was painful I had to pick him.

5. Stephen Curry
Image

His GOAT regular season isn't taken lightly enough to drop him out completely but his postseason has been nothing short of a disaster. To start even when he's played he's been the 4th best playoff performer if I'm generous, there's no individual series where he was the best player on the floor (thanks to his injury in rounds 1 and 2 and his performance in round 3 and the Finals), and he missed 6 games (he could've missed the first 2 against Cleveland too because he wasn't tipping the scales at all or even really impacting the game much). On top of that he's coming off a game where he was the worst player on his team and Cleveland seemed to make it an offensive priority to attack his defense. I'm big on the postseason so the injury dropped him to 3rd but his performance in the Finals has been anything but worthy. And the worst part of it all is that he's not even shooting badly. He has a 59 TS% in the Finals so far - he's just being super passive (and while I could let him slide for that when they were winning he can't get a pass when he has 2 pts, 4 tovs, and is down nearly 20 at half because he wants to make Vine clips by over dribbling instead of shooting).


Not to be "that" guy, but i don't see how KD is below Leonard and Curry is out of the top 2.

My list would be:

Curry
Lebron
Russ/KD
Kawhi

KD is under Kawhi because Kawhi played him nearly to a draw in the regularly season and he outplayed him in the postseason (head to head KD outplayed him but overall Kawhi had less lows).

Quotatious wrote:Honestly, for me, the only way somebody could knock Curry off the #1 spot, would be as if someone had a regular season close to him, and outplayed him in the postseason by truly epic proportions. It would have to be similar to D-Rob vs Hakeem in 1994 - D-Rob was the best player in the regular season, but he performed very poorly in the playoffs and got knocked out in the first round, while Hakeem had one of the best playoff runs ever, and won a title. This season, nothing like that has happened - I think Westbrook was the closest to Curry after the regular season, and he played better than him in the playoffs, but not to the extent that it would override the RS gap - hell, Westbrook's team blew a 3-1 lead against Curry's team, and Westbrook was playing with another top 5 player (while the guy who is usually Curry's best teammate - Green, vastly underperformed).

Basically it would take a GOAT caliber playoff run from somebody, to knock Steph from #1, for me, and it's not happening.


As far as Steph being out of the top 2 I'd rather be the 07 Giants than the 07 Pats.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#787 » by E-Balla » Thu Jun 9, 2016 8:43 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:What is Leonard's argument over Paul?

Quotatious wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:This game is going to add a lot to the "Love isn't a superstar" thing.

He hasn't been a superstar since his last season in Minnesota, I thought everybody other than the Cavs players knew that.


No, it would mean he was never a superstar. It adds to the narrative that he put up empty stats.

He outperformed him in the regular season IMO and he didn't get hurt in the playoffs.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#788 » by E-Balla » Thu Jun 9, 2016 8:57 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
E-Balla wrote:His GOAT regular season isn't taken lightly enough to drop him out completely but his postseason has been nothing short of a disaster. To start even when he's played he's been the 4th best playoff performer if I'm generous, there's no individual series where he was the best player on the floor (thanks to his injury in rounds 1 and 2 and his performance in round 3 and the Finals), and he missed 6 games (he could've missed the first 2 against Cleveland too because he wasn't tipping the scales at all or even really impacting the game much). On top of that he's coming off a game where he was the worst player on his team and Cleveland seemed to make it an offensive priority to attack his defense. I'm big on the postseason so the injury dropped him to 3rd but his performance in the Finals has been anything but worthy. And the worst part of it all is that he's not even shooting badly. He has a 59 TS% in the Finals so far - he's just being super passive (and while I could let him slide for that when they were winning he can't get a pass when he has 2 pts, 4 tovs, and is down nearly 20 at half because he wants to make Vine clips by over dribbling instead of shooting).


Wow, I think this really underestimates what he did in the OKC series.

You're talking about a guy who scored 27.9 PPG in that series with TS% north of 60 while literally no one else on either team scored above 15 PPG while shooting north of 55% TS despite the fact that the series consisted of two guys known for volume scoring and Curry's now deified scoring teammate. He did this while becoming WAY bigger when his team was actually against the wall going for 31/10/9 in game 6 and then racking up 36 points in the deciding game 7 as his team destroyed the opponent down the stretch both games.

There's more to the game than scoring of course, but you yourself are focused on his scoring, and somehow you interpreted a series where to me he was by far the best scorer as being something far from that.

I also think that that totally changes perspective on Curry's series as a whole right now. So far, we've got a guy who was injured through the first two rounds, was quite good against OKC, and who is only part way through a final series where all but one game has been a blowout in his team's favor. Injuries are to be held against him how each of us sees fit of course, but in terms of Curry being remotely exposed by these playoffs, I don't see it.

I think when you talk about passivity, you're expressing something a lot of people feel based on their expectations for how scoring superstars work, but it's not how Curry and the Warriors work. They very clearly have 2 modes. One in which they use a flow offense that is more than happy to exploit the gravity caused by Curry & Klay to let other players score, and another where Curry and/or Klay is looking to just shoot the ball whenever they have the slightest window. The former technique is one that requires considerably less energy from the Splash Brothers and is considerably more important to the Warriors maintaining their confident, loose Pete Carroll-esque vibe that has let the team look so good deep into the bench.

I'm by no means saying it's a given that Curry is better than Player X, whoever that person is people feel like comparing him to, but in terms of Curry being "nothing short of a disaster" so far this playoffs, I find that pretty absurd.

I only focused on the scoring because that's what makes him great. When Curry is scoring like an average PG he's playing like an average PG. He killed it down the stretch but in all 3 losses he didn't show up. They did win of course but dont think he outplayed Westbrook (who I thought was great even if he wasn't the most efficient scorer). I also don't care about the down the stretch narrative because every game in the playoffs counts. Not saying Curry did this but playing terribly in games 1-4 only to show up in games 5-7 to win doesn't get you any props IMO because you could've showed up earlier and it wouldn't have gotten to 7 games anyway (I still don't think Lebron had a good series in the 2013 Finals despite his late game performance in game 6 and his game 7).

Also I don't think he was exposed I but I do think his postseason was disastrous. The worst thing that can happen to a player in the postseason is to get injured and not be there for your team when they get bounced. Steph wasn't bounced but he wasn't there and it's given him a chance to recover if anything. If GS lost against Portland he wouldn't even be in my top 5 or close to it (like CP3 got no consideration from me).

Also about the passivity part explain the first half last night. To me it looked like Curry wasn't contributing anything offensively and defensively he was actively destroying their chances of success.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#789 » by JordansBulls » Thu Jun 9, 2016 9:09 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
As I said the missed games matter more to me than others. I know how you feel about Curry but I just can't have him #1 with an injury in the PS, not to mention he's being very inconsistent game to game.

I am not sure about KD/Russ yet. I was kinda very impressed with KD's defense in the GSW series and also kinda disappointed with Russ not being that good defensively. That being said having them as the 2nd/3rd best player in the league is not egregious I hope :).

Curry could move back up to the 2 spot if he consistently shows up for the remaining Finals' games.


Well Curry and Lebron both have played the same amount of games total 103 in the season and playoffs. So not sure what would make Curry not qualify for the top spot.


Your attempts at downplaying LeBron at this point are beyond laughable.

Curry missed games in the PS = 6
LeBron = 0

For you it seems like it's not a big deal. For some of us it is.

If you wanna make legit arguments for Curry like Q or others are doing, then do so. Don't pull your typical "JB arguments" like never won with a franchise or some other bizarre qualifier which has 0 to do with basketball play on the court.



That's like "The pot calling the kettle black" You said you are penalizing Curry for missed games and I said he and Lebron has played the same amount of games for the season as of now. Again 1976 Kareem and 2005 KG didn't even make the playoffs and people were voting them as the #1 player for the season.
So where you get this is downplaying Lebron?
Lebron would still have been voted top player in 2013 if he missed 6 games as well in the playoffs because he was far better than anyone else in the season. Just like Curry was this season.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#790 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 9, 2016 11:49 pm

E-Balla wrote:I only focused on the scoring because that's what makes him great. When Curry is scoring like an average PG he's playing like an average PG. He killed it down the stretch but in all 3 losses he didn't show up. They did win of course but dont think he outplayed Westbrook (who I thought was great even if he wasn't the most efficient scorer). I also don't care about the down the stretch narrative because every game in the playoffs counts. Not saying Curry did this but playing terribly in games 1-4 only to show up in games 5-7 to win doesn't get you any props IMO because you could've showed up earlier and it wouldn't have gotten to 7 games anyway (I still don't think Lebron had a good series in the 2013 Finals despite his late game performance in game 6 and his game 7).

Also I don't think he was exposed I but I do think his postseason was disastrous. The worst thing that can happen to a player in the postseason is to get injured and not be there for your team when they get bounced. Steph wasn't bounced but he wasn't there and it's given him a chance to recover if anything. If GS lost against Portland he wouldn't even be in my top 5 or close to it (like CP3 got no consideration from me).

Also about the passivity part explain the first half last night. To me it looked like Curry wasn't contributing anything offensively and defensively he was actively destroying their chances of success.


I would just urge everyone to remember that the goal is to win the series, not win it in a sweep.

I go back to tennis a lot and I'll do it again here:

Pete Sampras was renown for losing sets 6-0 & 6-1 in the middle of matches he won. This meant that if you judged how good he was based on the fraction of games or points one, he looked worse than he did if you went by actual match victory success. If someone had said that that meant he was overrated - that his point/game winning represented the true accomplishment - the tennis world, well, they would all disagree with that.

This is another way of saying that the allocation of a player's impact matters. Two games of an impact of +5 are not the same as one game of 0 and another of +10. Which is better depends on context, but there should be no skepticism to the idea that of the two sets of performances one will be preferable to the other.

I feel like those of a more traditional basketball mindset will prefer the more consistent of the two approaches, but again it depends on context. If, against the opponent in question, the player typically needs a +8 in order to guide his team to victory, then the player who gave you +5 both games only makes lose by a bit less.

So then, this is not to say that we should just ignore Curry's lesser performances, but in a sport that is all about beating your opponent 4 times before they beat you 4 times, getting overly bothered by uneven performances to me only makes sense if you've got a guy who seems to disappear when you need him most. Meanwhile Curry quite clearly is a player who goes into a certain takeover mode when he feels his team needs him, and while that doesn't make him catch fire every game, to me it seems pretty much the norm that if you give him a bunch of shots in a row he tends to get properly calibrated and odds are good he'll hit a streak.

Re: outplayed by Westbrook. Maybe you already broke this down. I'll try to, but it's tough to do so without talking generally because the teams play so differently...because Curry & Westbrook are so different.

Scoring? Curry. Comparable volume, considerably more efficient. Even bigger edge against crunch defense. Plus with all the style benefits that have allowed the Warriors to develop the rhythm & flow method they use.

Playmaking? Curry's transitioned to more of an off-ball role so Westbrook gets a lot more assists, but c'mon, only one of these teams devolves into self-destructive iso ball, and Westbrook is the reason why.

Defense? I'm still not impressed with Westbrook's defense. He makes some great plays, but he's got a lot of flaws. Curry's at least comparable to him there.

I'll definitely give Westbrook the rebounding edge though.

I say all this, but to be clear, I'm actually quite HIGH on Westbrook right now. In spite of whatever issues I'm pointing out, he is the heart & soul of this OKC team that could have easily won. I don't actually mind the choice of Westbrook over Curry that much here in principle, I just think the "disaster" talk for Curry is crazy when when it was all on the line, Curry looked like he was clearly on another level just like he had all year. Had the ball bounced differently and the series already been over by then I'd see it differently sure, but I can't just ignore that final stretch on that basis.

Re: If GS lost to Portland... As I've said, I"m fine with you factoring in injuries how you want. My issue comes from you call his post-season a disaster while talking a lot on his actual play given that his actual play just created a post-season heroic comeback that Westbrook has never been anything close to in his entire career.

That said, while Curry missed many games, the Warriors also clearly were looking to rest him as much as they could. In both of his returns, he came back after his team lost a game. That's not a coincidence.

I'd also ask people to consider the perspective that missing 6 games in the RS wouldn't have mattered at all here, so, while I think we all agree that in principle missing playoff time matters more, we have to ask ourselves why exactly that is so. It is so because missing 6 games at the exact right time can end a season...but obviously, this wasn't 6 games at the exact right time because the Warriors not only got through those series, they weren't even stressed. As such, penalizing Curry like crazy is essentially saying:

"I penalize a ton anyone who gets unlucky and gets injured in the playoffs, and that could conceivably ruin his team's entire season, and I do this even if he gets lucky and his injury has basically no effect at all on his team's season."

I personally try to stay pragmatic. It's always my hope that I can basically ignore the injuries. If a guy gets unlucky and it keeps him from achieving what he needs to to outrank other superstars, that sucks, but it is what it is. But I'm not going to do a mock funeral for his candidacy when it didn't really end up changing anything.

Re: last night. I would just say that if, say, Curry comes back and destroys the Cavs in Game 4 and the Warriors go on to win the series, then him having one bad game won't actually have any effect on the outcome of the series and that judging a player harshly because he's prone to having one or two bad games in a series to me doesn't make a lot of sense. When it's a broader issue, then that will change things.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#791 » by mtron929 » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:56 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
E-Balla wrote:I only focused on the scoring because that's what makes him great. When Curry is scoring like an average PG he's playing like an average PG. He killed it down the stretch but in all 3 losses he didn't show up. They did win of course but dont think he outplayed Westbrook (who I thought was great even if he wasn't the most efficient scorer). I also don't care about the down the stretch narrative because every game in the playoffs counts. Not saying Curry did this but playing terribly in games 1-4 only to show up in games 5-7 to win doesn't get you any props IMO because you could've showed up earlier and it wouldn't have gotten to 7 games anyway (I still don't think Lebron had a good series in the 2013 Finals despite his late game performance in game 6 and his game 7).

Also I don't think he was exposed I but I do think his postseason was disastrous. The worst thing that can happen to a player in the postseason is to get injured and not be there for your team when they get bounced. Steph wasn't bounced but he wasn't there and it's given him a chance to recover if anything. If GS lost against Portland he wouldn't even be in my top 5 or close to it (like CP3 got no consideration from me).

Also about the passivity part explain the first half last night. To me it looked like Curry wasn't contributing anything offensively and defensively he was actively destroying their chances of success.


I would just urge everyone to remember that the goal is to win the series, not win it in a sweep.

I go back to tennis a lot and I'll do it again here:

Pete Sampras was renown for losing sets 6-0 & 6-1 in the middle of matches he won. This meant that if you judged how good he was based on the fraction of games or points one, he looked worse than he did if you went by actual match victory success. If someone had said that that meant he was overrated - that his point/game winning represented the true accomplishment - the tennis world, well, they would all disagree with that.

This is another way of saying that the allocation of a player's impact matters. Two games of an impact of +5 are not the same as one game of 0 and another of +10. Which is better depends on context, but there should be no skepticism to the idea that of the two sets of performances one will be preferable to the other.

I feel like those of a more traditional basketball mindset will prefer the more consistent of the two approaches, but again it depends on context. If, against the opponent in question, the player typically needs a +8 in order to guide his team to victory, then the player who gave you +5 both games only makes lose by a bit less.

So then, this is not to say that we should just ignore Curry's lesser performances, but in a sport that is all about beating your opponent 4 times before they beat you 4 times, getting overly bothered by uneven performances to me only makes sense if you've got a guy who seems to disappear when you need him most. Meanwhile Curry quite clearly is a player who goes into a certain takeover mode when he feels his team needs him, and while that doesn't make him catch fire every game, to me it seems pretty much the norm that if you give him a bunch of shots in a row he tends to get properly calibrated and odds are good he'll hit a streak.

Re: outplayed by Westbrook. Maybe you already broke this down. I'll try to, but it's tough to do so without talking generally because the teams play so differently...because Curry & Westbrook are so different.

Scoring? Curry. Comparable volume, considerably more efficient. Even bigger edge against crunch defense. Plus with all the style benefits that have allowed the Warriors to develop the rhythm & flow method they use.

Playmaking? Curry's transitioned to more of an off-ball role so Westbrook gets a lot more assists, but c'mon, only one of these teams devolves into self-destructive iso ball, and Westbrook is the reason why.

Defense? I'm still not impressed with Westbrook's defense. He makes some great plays, but he's got a lot of flaws. Curry's at least comparable to him there.

I'll definitely give Westbrook the rebounding edge though.

I say all this, but to be clear, I'm actually quite HIGH on Westbrook right now. In spite of whatever issues I'm pointing out, he is the heart & soul of this OKC team that could have easily won. I don't actually mind the choice of Westbrook over Curry that much here in principle, I just think the "disaster" talk for Curry is crazy when when it was all on the line, Curry looked like he was clearly on another level just like he had all year. Had the ball bounced differently and the series already been over by then I'd see it differently sure, but I can't just ignore that final stretch on that basis.

Re: If GS lost to Portland... As I've said, I"m fine with you factoring in injuries how you want. My issue comes from you call his post-season a disaster while talking a lot on his actual play given that his actual play just created a post-season heroic comeback that Westbrook has never been anything close to in his entire career.

That said, while Curry missed many games, the Warriors also clearly were looking to rest him as much as they could. In both of his returns, he came back after his team lost a game. That's not a coincidence.

I'd also ask people to consider the perspective that missing 6 games in the RS wouldn't have mattered at all here, so, while I think we all agree that in principle missing playoff time matters more, we have to ask ourselves why exactly that is so. It is so because missing 6 games at the exact right time can end a season...but obviously, this wasn't 6 games at the exact right time because the Warriors not only got through those series, they weren't even stressed. As such, penalizing Curry like crazy is essentially saying:

"I penalize a ton anyone who gets unlucky and gets injured in the playoffs, and that could conceivably ruin his team's entire season, and I do this even if he gets lucky and his injury has basically no effect at all on his team's season."

I personally try to stay pragmatic. It's always my hope that I can basically ignore the injuries. If a guy gets unlucky and it keeps him from achieving what he needs to to outrank other superstars, that sucks, but it is what it is. But I'm not going to do a mock funeral for his candidacy when it didn't really end up changing anything.

Re: last night. I would just say that if, say, Curry comes back and destroys the Cavs in Game 4 and the Warriors go on to win the series, then him having one bad game won't actually have any effect on the outcome of the series and that judging a player harshly because he's prone to having one or two bad games in a series to me doesn't make a lot of sense. When it's a broader issue, then that will change things.


You make a good argument but it seems like I can turn this back on you in another manner. In the tennis analogy, by discounting the 6-0 losses as somewhat meaningless since the goal is to win the entire match and not worry about how badly one looks in losing an individual set, it seems like we can take this further. That is, can't the entirety of the regular season be seen as just one long prelude to the real tennis tournament? If we agree that the goal is to win the series (which is a necessary requirement to win the championship), then it seems like the importance of the regular season can be diminished quite significantly. When it comes to winning a championship, the only necessary goal in the regular season is to make the playoffs. So whether a player plays really bad in the regular season or plays good in the regular season (this can be an extension of your tennis analogy), once you are win, then it shouldn't matter how they got in, right?

Now one can argue that regular season still matters since it determines how difficult the road to the championship would be, but it seems like the results should speak for themselves. That is, if someone like Lebron has horrible regular season numbers but played incredibly in the playoffs to help his team win the championship, his play in the real tournament should dwarf everything else that happened in the pre-tournament, right? And by this logic, he can be viewed as the best player.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#792 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:37 am

mtron929 wrote:You make a good argument but it seems like I can turn this back on you in another manner. In the tennis analogy, by discounting the 6-0 losses as somewhat meaningless since the goal is to win the entire match and not worry about how badly one looks in losing an individual set, it seems like we can take this further. That is, can't the entirety of the regular season be seen as just one long prelude to the real tennis tournament? If we agree that the goal is to win the series (which is a necessary requirement to win the championship), then it seems like the importance of the regular season can be diminished quite significantly. When it comes to winning a championship, the only necessary goal in the regular season is to make the playoffs. So whether a player plays really bad in the regular season or plays good in the regular season (this can be an extension of your tennis analogy), once you are win, then it shouldn't matter how they got in, right?

Now one can argue that regular season still matters since it determines how difficult the road to the championship would be, but it seems like the results should speak for themselves. That is, if someone like Lebron has horrible regular season numbers but played incredibly in the playoffs to help his team win the championship, his play in the real tournament should dwarf everything else that happened in the pre-tournament, right? And by this logic, he can be viewed as the best player.


I don't think I disagree with any of that actually in broad principle. What I would say though is that a player or team has to really convince me that they flipped the switch with confidence. Case in point:

To me the '01 Lakers' playoff performance is absolutely the most impressive in all of NBA history. That's a big deal no matter what...but it would be a bigger deal if I could actually say I believe that the playoff team was their true self and their regular season team was them just coasting. After the '01 finals, I thought that might be the case, but then we never saw them play to anywhere near that level again, so it was essentially a hot streak.

A hot streak through the playoffs still counts for a lot, and I have no issue putting Shaq & Kobe at 1 & 2 for that year, but I don't view their respective peaks purely through the less of how good they looked in the hot streak like I would if I were convinced that was something they could pull off whenever they wanted.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#793 » by mikejames23 » Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:11 am

Anyone ever considered the crazy idea that playoff failings in general could simply be a sample size issue, and nothing more?
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#794 » by bondom34 » Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:14 am

Fundamentals21 wrote:Anyone ever considered the crazy idea that playoff failings in general could simply be a sample size issue, and nothing more?

Somewhat, I think competition level is higher too. But its part of why I don't weight the postseason as heavily as RS personally.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#795 » by Dr Positivity » Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:52 am

Fundamentals21 wrote:Anyone ever considered the crazy idea that playoff failings in general could simply be a sample size issue, and nothing more?


Can't say I agree with that, some players skillsets may be more unguardable than others in tight halfcourt setting. It's why Hakeem is > David Robinson for example, Hakeem's unique skill level has value in a playoff series that can't quite be captured by regular season production

Guessing sometimes it's more system/teammates related than given credit for though. Like Durant's end of GSW series was incriminating, but the Thunder's halfcourt/ball movement are one of the biggest reasons why he was getting forced into bad shots, and those problems go beyond KD. 2011 Dirk had a brilliant run and unguardable mid post skillset and all the credit to him, but playing on an all time basketball IQ team helped him, made it impossible to double him without paying the price of their passing game and 3s, etc. Overall my instinct is probably that when it comes to player evaluation, contextual factors leading to a result (teammates, coaching, luck with heath and opponent, etc.) are probably more important than given credit for more often than not
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#796 » by bondom34 » Fri Jun 10, 2016 8:54 am

http://imgur.com/tGlIYkX

Interesting a bit.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#797 » by E-Balla » Fri Jun 10, 2016 10:34 am

Long post so I might not address everything you mentioned here Doc
Doctor MJ wrote:
E-Balla wrote:I only focused on the scoring because that's what makes him great. When Curry is scoring like an average PG he's playing like an average PG. He killed it down the stretch but in all 3 losses he didn't show up. They did win of course but dont think he outplayed Westbrook (who I thought was great even if he wasn't the most efficient scorer). I also don't care about the down the stretch narrative because every game in the playoffs counts. Not saying Curry did this but playing terribly in games 1-4 only to show up in games 5-7 to win doesn't get you any props IMO because you could've showed up earlier and it wouldn't have gotten to 7 games anyway (I still don't think Lebron had a good series in the 2013 Finals despite his late game performance in game 6 and his game 7).

Also I don't think he was exposed I but I do think his postseason was disastrous. The worst thing that can happen to a player in the postseason is to get injured and not be there for your team when they get bounced. Steph wasn't bounced but he wasn't there and it's given him a chance to recover if anything. If GS lost against Portland he wouldn't even be in my top 5 or close to it (like CP3 got no consideration from me).

Also about the passivity part explain the first half last night. To me it looked like Curry wasn't contributing anything offensively and defensively he was actively destroying their chances of success.


I would just urge everyone to remember that the goal is to win the series, not win it in a sweep.

I go back to tennis a lot and I'll do it again here:

Pete Sampras was renown for losing sets 6-0 & 6-1 in the middle of matches he won. This meant that if you judged how good he was based on the fraction of games or points one, he looked worse than he did if you went by actual match victory success. If someone had said that that meant he was overrated - that his point/game winning represented the true accomplishment - the tennis world, well, they would all disagree with that.

This is another way of saying that the allocation of a player's impact matters. Two games of an impact of +5 are not the same as one game of 0 and another of +10. Which is better depends on context, but there should be no skepticism to the idea that of the two sets of performances one will be preferable to the other.

I feel like those of a more traditional basketball mindset will prefer the more consistent of the two approaches, but again it depends on context. If, against the opponent in question, the player typically needs a +8 in order to guide his team to victory, then the player who gave you +5 both games only makes lose by a bit less.

So then, this is not to say that we should just ignore Curry's lesser performances, but in a sport that is all about beating your opponent 4 times before they beat you 4 times, getting overly bothered by uneven performances to me only makes sense if you've got a guy who seems to disappear when you need him most. Meanwhile Curry quite clearly is a player who goes into a certain takeover mode when he feels his team needs him, and while that doesn't make him catch fire every game, to me it seems pretty much the norm that if you give him a bunch of shots in a row he tends to get properly calibrated and odds are good he'll hit a streak.

Re: outplayed by Westbrook. Maybe you already broke this down. I'll try to, but it's tough to do so without talking generally because the teams play so differently...because Curry & Westbrook are so different.

Scoring? Curry. Comparable volume, considerably more efficient. Even bigger edge against crunch defense. Plus with all the style benefits that have allowed the Warriors to develop the rhythm & flow method they use.

Playmaking? Curry's transitioned to more of an off-ball role so Westbrook gets a lot more assists, but c'mon, only one of these teams devolves into self-destructive iso ball, and Westbrook is the reason why.

Defense? I'm still not impressed with Westbrook's defense. He makes some great plays, but he's got a lot of flaws. Curry's at least comparable to him there.

I'll definitely give Westbrook the rebounding edge though.

I say all this, but to be clear, I'm actually quite HIGH on Westbrook right now. In spite of whatever issues I'm pointing out, he is the heart & soul of this OKC team that could have easily won. I don't actually mind the choice of Westbrook over Curry that much here in principle, I just think the "disaster" talk for Curry is crazy when when it was all on the line, Curry looked like he was clearly on another level just like he had all year. Had the ball bounced differently and the series already been over by then I'd see it differently sure, but I can't just ignore that final stretch on that basis.

Re: If GS lost to Portland... As I've said, I"m fine with you factoring in injuries how you want. My issue comes from you call his post-season a disaster while talking a lot on his actual play given that his actual play just created a post-season heroic comeback that Westbrook has never been anything close to in his entire career.

That said, while Curry missed many games, the Warriors also clearly were looking to rest him as much as they could. In both of his returns, he came back after his team lost a game. That's not a coincidence.

I'd also ask people to consider the perspective that missing 6 games in the RS wouldn't have mattered at all here, so, while I think we all agree that in principle missing playoff time matters more, we have to ask ourselves why exactly that is so. It is so because missing 6 games at the exact right time can end a season...but obviously, this wasn't 6 games at the exact right time because the Warriors not only got through those series, they weren't even stressed. As such, penalizing Curry like crazy is essentially saying:

"I penalize a ton anyone who gets unlucky and gets injured in the playoffs, and that could conceivably ruin his team's entire season, and I do this even if he gets lucky and his injury has basically no effect at all on his team's season."

I personally try to stay pragmatic. It's always my hope that I can basically ignore the injuries. If a guy gets unlucky and it keeps him from achieving what he needs to to outrank other superstars, that sucks, but it is what it is. But I'm not going to do a mock funeral for his candidacy when it didn't really end up changing anything.

Re: last night. I would just say that if, say, Curry comes back and destroys the Cavs in Game 4 and the Warriors go on to win the series, then him having one bad game won't actually have any effect on the outcome of the series and that judging a player harshly because he's prone to having one or two bad games in a series to me doesn't make a lot of sense. When it's a broader issue, then that will change things.

The thing is good enough isn't good enough when we naming the top 5 players and the others were more than good enough. I get what you mean but in the case of the Finals +5 wasn't needed from Curry it was -2. So when Curry shows up with 2 0 games and a -10 to lose it there's an issue. Now I get that he can win it without showing up but in this ranking every game you're not at top 5 level makes you lose ground.

I think of it like class standings. When I was in highschool there were about 4 people close to getting valedictorian. Heading into my senior year the number one student was a girl who decided to duel enroll her last year of HS while the other 4 stayed in highschool. Now in GA when you duel enroll an A is only counted as a 95. She got straight As both semesters giving her a 95 average on the year but she ended up 3rd in my class (yes she wasn't even salutatorian) because the 2nd and 3rd place students got 99s and 100s in their highschool classes (she was so pissed when went back to Korea and skipped graduation). When Curry sweeps giving 10/10 performances in my eyes he gets a 10 and when he gives 3 3 performances and 4 10s I give him a slight boost for showing up in 4 games when that's all he needed to win but I take points off for him losing 3 to begin with.

Westbrook vs Curry: As far as scoring goes I 100% agree but I strongly disagree with your playmaking argument. Westbrook isn't he reason why OKC transforms into an iso team. He's one of the reasons but I'd say the coaches and KD hold just as much responsibility as he does. And Curry is in an offball role now but when he was in a team situation more similar to WBs he was devolving into iso commonly too and he wasn't even passing as much as WB either. I'm not giving Curry a boost because Golden State has a ton of great playmakers (including 2 or 3 I'd say are better than Curry) and they don't devolve into iso ball. It wasn't like they turned to iso ball without Curry and it's not like OKC moves the ball when Westbrook is off the floor. Actually Golden State moves the ball a lot more without Curry (they were assisted on about 67% of their baskets when Curry went down and their TOV% dropped too) and OKC moves the ball a lot less without Westbrook.

Defensively we'll have to disagree here. In a vacuum they're about even this year on average but one is supported by one of the best defenses in the league and the other by a defense closer to average than great. On top of that Westbrook has more great defensive games and in the playoffs he's had less bad games too. Westbrook also isn't the weak link defensively so we see him get picked on less. I can see the argument for them being even but I'd have to disagree. I totally get your point of view (I think you live more in what happened and I'm a lot more speculative) but personally I can't help but to think that if he was on any other team they would've lost (hell if CP3 didn't get hurt they would've lost).

Also it's not lucky that his injury didn't affect anything it's because his team covered for him. Every missed game he missed he was openly hurting his team. If he played those 6 games and performed like he did in game 3 (actively hurting the team) would you have dropped him any? If so why not penalize him for hurting the team by not being there?
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#798 » by E-Balla » Fri Jun 10, 2016 10:53 am

bondom34 wrote:http://imgur.com/tGlIYkX

Interesting a bit.

Looks about right to me but it's only like that because Portland and Houston were the easy series (Steph missed most of those games) and Livingston has outplayed him in the Finals. KD and Russ threw off though. Just looked it up and Russ had a +11 on/off while KD had a +7.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#799 » by bondom34 » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:58 pm

E-Balla wrote:
Westbrook vs Curry: As far as scoring goes I 100% agree but I strongly disagree with your playmaking argument. Westbrook isn't he reason why OKC transforms into an iso team. He's one of the reasons but I'd say the coaches and KD hold just as much responsibility as he does. And Curry is in an offball role now but when he was in a team situation more similar to WBs he was devolving into iso commonly too and he wasn't even passing as much as WB either. I'm not giving Curry a boost because Golden State has a ton of great playmakers (including 2 or 3 I'd say are better than Curry) and they don't devolve into iso ball. It wasn't like they turned to iso ball without Curry and it's not like OKC moves the ball when Westbrook is off the floor. Actually Golden State moves the ball a lot more without Curry (they were assisted on about 67% of their baskets when Curry went down and their TOV% dropped too) and OKC moves the ball a lot less without Westbrook.

Defensively we'll have to disagree here. In a vacuum they're about even this year on average but one is supported by one of the best defenses in the league and the other by a defense closer to average than great. On top of that Westbrook has more great defensive games and in the playoffs he's had less bad games too. Westbrook also isn't the weak link defensively so we see him get picked on less. I can see the argument for them being even but I'd have to disagree. I totally get your point of view (I think you live more in what happened and I'm a lot more speculative) but personally I can't help but to think that if he was on any other team they would've lost (hell if CP3 didn't get hurt they would've lost).

Also it's not lucky that his injury didn't affect anything it's because his team covered for him. Every missed game he missed he was openly hurting his team. If he played those 6 games and performed like he did in game 3 (actively hurting the team) would you have dropped him any? If so why not penalize him for hurting the team by not being there?

I just jumped in here but I'd 100 percent agree on the isos, that's not something revolving around Westbrook. Durant has the same role, and coaches have too. Durant's at times actually been worse late game, and I specifically remember early season when they had a late game TO and Donovan came with a play call. The play? Iso KD of course with no screens to open him up. The isolations are something he does but in no way is he the reason for them totally.

Secondly I would agree re: defense. Something happened this series with a narrative when that question was asked postgame, and I disagree vehemently with how the perception suddenly shifted.

The WCF to me were a story of Curry largely performing worse and Russ better, with Thompson being the big difference maker.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#800 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:27 pm

Fundamentals21 wrote:Anyone ever considered the crazy idea that playoff failings in general could simply be a sample size issue, and nothing more?


That would make assessments more complicated, therefore, we shall conveniently ignore them and just pretend people are bad. 8-)

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