The Lebron Thread (2015-16 Pt. 3)

[PCProductions]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Dr Spaceman]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Thanks for sharing. Didn't realize he was writing for NC now, great stuff!

I do disagree with his approach here though. I don't think full season RAPM numbers tell anything about how a player will fare in a specific matchup TBH. And when Green is taken out of his comfort zone by a big athletic defender (I.e. Durant/LeBron) not only does he struggle but the Warriors as a whole can't really get anything going (seems to correlate with Curry having high TO/poor shooting games as well). I think the mere presence of LeBron on Green is a huge plus.

Additionally, while Love is a good shooter I don't think he's a GREAT one, even compared to Jefferson and Frye. Those guys are a lot quicker on the release and can do stuff with the ball if they're closed out on. Love needs more space/time to get his shot off, and the shot clock can go down quickly when he doesn't pull the trigger and has to pass out. Golden State is just fast enough on defense to make his looks harder to come by.

I like Love, I really do. I just think GSW is the worst possible matchup for him.

Wasn't sure if it was appropriate to post this critique in the comments section.

[Texas Chuck]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Thanks for sharing. Didn't realize he was writing for NC now, great stuff!

I do disagree with his approach here though. I don't think full season RAPM numbers tell anything about how a player will fare in a specific matchup TBH. And when Green is taken out of his comfort zone by a big athletic defender (I.e. Durant/LeBron) not only does he struggle but the Warriors as a whole can't really get anything going (seems to correlate with Curry having high TO/poor shooting games as well). I think the mere presence of LeBron on Green is a huge plus.

Additionally, while Love is a good shooter I don't think he's a GREAT one, even compared to Jefferson and Frye. Those guys are a lot quicker on the release and can do stuff with the ball if they're closed out on. Love needs more space/time to get his shot off, and the shot clock can go down quickly when he doesn't pull the trigger and has to pass out. Golden State is just fast enough on defense to make his looks harder to come by.

I like Love, I really do. I just think GSW is the worst possible matchup for him.

Wasn't sure if it was appropriate to post this critique in the comments section.

I agree with this. I also find myself wondering why the Cavs haven't done much of what Dallas has done for years now with Dirk: have him guard smaller guys who are mostly used as spacers offensively and if the other team wants to try and attack Love with that smaller player, well that's still going to be better than the other options on the court.

I'd put Love on Harrison Barnes and if GSW wants to force the ball to Barnes to try and take advantage of this I'd rub my hands together. And I'd have Love play every minute Lebron sits and let more of the offense run through him instead of Kyrie.

[bondom34]

I'm not sure it isn't a sample size problem. They played two RS games and Love was a positive contributor in one on Xmas despite the loss in a forty minute effort. I don't know what to make of it yet.

[JulesWinnfield]

Lebron guarding Draymond fractionalizes (is that a word?) Dray's impact and that does a number on the Warrior offense, especially with Curry at less than peak form. That's simply a game changer and I fully believe it's sustainable. They have to keep with that, and to me that is the biggest thing with the Love situation. OKC similarly posed matchup problems with Green and that was going to lose them that series were it not for some insanity out of Klay in game 6. If the Cavs keep with that matchup it's going to take some special heroics out of the splash brothers to get 2 more W's here.

[rich316]

Lebron guarding Draymond fractionalizes (is that a word?) Dray's impact and that does a number on the Warrior offense, especially with Curry at less than peak form. That's simply a game changer and I fully believe it's sustainable. They have to keep with that, and to me that is the biggest thing with the Love situation. OKC similarly posed matchup problems with Green and that was going to lose them that series were it not for some insanity out of Klay in game 6. If the Cavs keep with that matchup it's going to take some special heroics out of the splash brothers to get 2 more W's here.

Unfortunately it took the Cavs two blowouts to figure it out, and it's going to be really hard to prevent Klay and Curry from winning games by themselves in 3 of the next 4. It's just too many chances for them to get hot and take over. OKC hit the Dubs in the mouth and were up 3-1 before Klay and Curry had a chance to get going, and they still lost - I fear that the Cavs starting in a hole will doom them. I hope I'm wrong.

[JulesWinnfield]

Lebron guarding Draymond fractionalizes (is that a word?) Dray's impact and that does a number on the Warrior offense, especially with Curry at less than peak form. That's simply a game changer and I fully believe it's sustainable. They have to keep with that, and to me that is the biggest thing with the Love situation. OKC similarly posed matchup problems with Green and that was going to lose them that series were it not for some insanity out of Klay in game 6. If the Cavs keep with that matchup it's going to take some special heroics out of the splash brothers to get 2 more W's here.

Unfortunately it took the Cavs two blowouts to figure it out, and it's going to be really hard to prevent Klay and Curry from winning games by themselves in 3 of the next 4. It's just too many chances for them to get hot and take over. OKC hit the Dubs in the mouth and were up 3-1 before Klay and Curry had a chance to get going, and they still lost - I fear that the Cavs starting in a hole will doom them. I hope I'm wrong.

Maybe it's irrational. Maybe I'm just getting caught up... But I have an insane amount of confidence in the Cavs on their home floor here, especially given how poorly GS has played on the road. Were it not for literally the best OT of all time by Curry in Portland, and the best 3 point shooting performance in playoff history by Klay in OKC, the Warriors would be riding a 6 game road losing streak here, and over half of those losses were total blowouts. Not just losses... They just got gutted. Murdered. Disemboweled. You pick the adjective. This clearly is not the same team right now. I really think the Cavs are going to take all 3 home games. So it comes down to can you get one at Oracle. They have two chances....

[Arman_tanzarian]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Was he on these boards? I've noticed recently a lot of people from here and on APBR etc are the same folks haha.

[Dr Spaceman]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Was he on these boards? I've noticed recently a lot of people from here and on APBR etc are the same folks haha.

Yup drza is a hall of fame RealGM poster, but he became less active when his media career started taking off. I believe he's been writing and hosting radio shows in Boston for quite a while. Really cool that it seems he's breaking into the national media a bit.

Drza is one of the best debaters I've run into and generally a very positive guy to interact with. I'm super happy to see him be successful.

[Arman_tanzarian]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Was he on these boards? I've noticed recently a lot of people from here and on APBR etc are the same folks haha.

Yup drza is a hall of fame RealGM poster, but he became less active when his media career started taking off. I believe he's been writing and hosting radio shows in Boston for quite a while. Really cool that it seems he's breaking into the national media a bit.

Drza is one of the best debaters I've run into and generally a very positive guy to interact with. I'm super happy to see him be successful.

Thanks, I knew I've seen him post before. I have a tough time remembering handles but can always recognize if they are familiar. I def remember him now. He was a great poster.

[tsherkin]

Was he on these boards? I've noticed recently a lot of people from here and on APBR etc are the same folks haha.

drza has contributed a great deal to these forums over the years, and has been a big champion of various kinds of statistical examination, a great counterpoint to the more classical styles of examination. Enough to make us all think things through from different perspectives, and that's something important to say for any poster. He and I have had some dustups on given topics over the years, but given the quality of his writing, that's often a sign of a challenging proposition worth considering, if only to reaffirm one's own notions and thought patterns. We're poorer for him posting less frequently. It is nice to see him gaining traction on a broader scale, though!

[PearGreatness]

I'm not sure it isn't a sample size problem. They played two RS games and Love was a positive contributor in one on Xmas despite the loss in a forty minute effort. I don't know what to make of it yet.

Generally, I think people are far too quick to jump to the "matchup" conclusion, when often it's more a matter luck, sample size, and timing. I think we kinda forget that players and teams often go on 20 game hot/cold streaks, and that game by game teams go from the best in the league to the worst league. Neither is uncommon.

[Reservoirdawgs]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Congrats, drza! Don't forget to follow him on Twitter - professordrz .


Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

[kayess]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

drza's one of the RealGM PC GOATs, but his approach here could be better.

He's using post-season +/- to indicate how well he'd do vs. GSW, and compounds that by using the Cavs' performance in G2. It's sort of like winning bias - only instead of "HEY, RINGZZ -> HE MUST BE A GOOD PLAYER", it's "HEY RAPM / +/- -> HE MUST BE A GOOD PLAYER" without really paying attention to specific matchups and looking at how Golden State is attacking the Cavs defense with Love on the floor, e.g., maybe the Cavs were +2 better with Love, but gave up more open shots that the Warriors simply missed.

Happy for him if he's getting media attention though - though he seemed to be proselytizing towards the end against the "echo chamber of social media", and while I didn't think it was arrogant because I thought "hey, it's drza", it would definitely have come off as arrogant to the average joe, and he's not doing himself any favors with that. Especially when he tacks on "A closer examination of the context and evidence demonstrates to my satisfaction that Love is taking a lot of unwarranted criticism", and when you do your own, analysis his doesn't really hold up.

[ElGee]

Drza with a great article on Kevin Love + Cavs Finals situation. Support our own peeps!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/10/kevin-love-not-the-cause-of-cavs-finals-woes/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I love Dre. Enjoyed the article. Wish he would rise higher in the media.

With that said, he left out the single best counter-argument IMO: Jefferson was only +11 in a 30-point game. It wasn't some Jefferson-swap-in that made the game a blowout.

(With ALL that said, I liked Jefferson and I like him starting tonight.)

[Greatness]

Doesn't look good for Cleveland. Warriors getting whatever they want. Curry getting Thompson switched onto him and driving and dishing.

[Greatness]

Off to another poor start

[tone wone]

refusing to take any shot in the paint that isn't a layup. Their length and athleticism is really bothering him.

[Greatness]

He isn't even looking to score though, that's gotta change.

[toodles23]

He needs to start looking for his shot. Cavs aren't getting any good looks because they're playing Bron for the pass and he isn't changing his approach.