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Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#601 » by fishercob » Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:34 am

Dat2U wrote:
fishercob wrote:
I agree that Beal can be replaced "internally," but don't see Temple as an option. Yes to roles for Anderson (on the cheap) and Satoransky. Also, Kelly Oubre and Otto Porter. If Anthony Roberson and Thabo Sefolosha can play the 2, so can Oubre. Porter swallowed up Derozan in the playoffs two years ago. He's better suited to guard wings than he is burlier guys like Melo, etc.

One of the keys to playing small, ironically enough, is size on the wings. Golden State's small lineups are long as hell and wreak havoc defensively. Perhaps Oubre could be a long term solution at the two. The other key is Draymond -- while he's short, he's incredible strong (and long) and holds his own in the post and on the boards.


You make a great point about Otto and I've thought the same. He does seem to defend quicker players better than some of the oversized SFs that he comes up against. Oubre has the physical traits but I'm not sure we could survive his shaky jumper & on-ball limitations at the 2 at this point.


On balance, Oubre was terrible last year. But he's so young and got so little PT that we can't draw any meaningful conclusions from it. He showed elite defensive potential on the ball; he needs to figure out how to play team defense. His shot mechanics are solid; we shouldn't draw negative conclusions from his 31% clip from 3. He was 5 makes from being a 38% shooter.

The fact that both he and Otto have some SG abilities actually allay some of my concerns about letting Beal walk. In 2016 (i.e. after new Years) beal played 38 games, started 18 and shot 38.6% from 3. Otto played in 48 games, started them all and shot 40% from 3. Maybe the guy the WIzards should be extending this summer is Otto -- before he blows up -- and let Beal walk, or see if we can get an asset for him in a S&T.

Otto and Oubre's versatility also makes it such that I would not be at all opposed to them adding a "natural' SF like a Batum. Wings are the new bigs in today's NBA. You can never have enough good ones.

The Wizards offseason should be focused on adding as much talent as possible; let Brooks figure out how to deploy it. If they have a shot at a guy who doesn't readily seem like a "fit" given the current roster -- like Whiteside or Batum -- go get him.

That said, I was trying to talk myself into a Melo/Beal swap and I just couldn't do it. Melo's production has dropped markedly over his last 2 years. He's 32 and has 3 years left at huge money. Pass.
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#602 » by verbal8 » Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:22 am

fishercob wrote:That said, I was trying to talk myself into a Melo/Beal swap and I just couldn't do it. Melo's production has dropped markedly over his last 2 years. He's 32 and has 3 years left at huge money. Pass.

2016-7 Melo might make the deal look ok, but 2017-8 Melo might be a financial millstone. Also with a no-trade clause, I would see Melo holding out for a better team if the Knicks were going to deal him.

I think the Knicks could offer the Wizards some interesting depth in a S&T deal. I figure pretty much anyone on their roster other than Porzingis or Lopez would be in play. O'Quinn might be an appealing part of a package.
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#603 » by TheSecretWeapon » Mon Jun 13, 2016 2:21 pm

Dat2U wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:Among the 81 players b-r identifies as SG with at least 500 minutes, I have Temple rated 56th. Last season, he was very low usage and below average in efficiency. There's no way I'd want to rely on him as part of my team's rotation. Not if I wanted my team to be good.


I likely value his defense more than your production measurement tool does. No I wouldn't want him starting in an ideal situation but I view him as being rated in the 30-40 range of SGs in my book, mainly due to his defensive skill. Not saying he's a lock down defender, but he's generally always going to be in the right position.

I'd love to know what other FA options out there at the SG position that would make sense financially.

Probably so. My analysis doesn't like Temple's defense very much. Not that he's bad defensively, rather that he's pretty average. I think there's some "Jared Jeffries" effect -- a guy gets a reputation as a good defender because he sucks on offense. Temple's a better offensive player than Jeffries was, though. And, some of the on/off measures rate Temple's defense better than I do. :D
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#604 » by closg00 » Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:55 pm

closg00 wrote:Raptors - Casey - 3 years $15 Mil

Houston - D' Antonio, 3 years $15 Mil

Knicks - Hornacek, 3 years $15 Mil

Wizards - Brooks, 5 years $35 Mil

Picture in your mind a desperate and needy Ernie Grunfeld, standing up when Scott Brooks walks through the door. Ernie: "Look Scott please, 5 years $35 Million fully guaranteed, let me know if I need to go higher to get this deal done today"


New entry to the 3-year $15 million dollar coaches club, Jason Kidd, the Wizards were the only org to panic.
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#605 » by fishercob » Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:40 pm

closg00 wrote:
closg00 wrote:Raptors - Casey - 3 years $15 Mil

Houston - D' Antonio, 3 years $15 Mil

Knicks - Hornacek, 3 years $15 Mil

Wizards - Brooks, 5 years $35 Mil

Picture in your mind a desperate and needy Ernie Grunfeld, standing up when Scott Brooks walks through the door. Ernie: "Look Scott please, 5 years $35 Million fully guaranteed, let me know if I need to go higher to get this deal done today"


New entry to the 3-year $15 million dollar coaches club, Jason Kidd, the Wizards were the only org to panic.


Cheer up closg00. Brooks' long and expensive deal makes him more likely to win a power struggle than Grunfeld, should it get to that. It doesn't count against the cap, so there's no real downside to them overpaying him. Hell, heads are going to have to roll if the WIzards don't take a big step forward and Ted isn't going to can Brooks with 4/$28M left on his deal. This could be ernie's final year!
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#606 » by closg00 » Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:11 pm

Understood Fish, I need to kick Ernie every once in-a-while even though my heart isn't in it anymore :)
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#607 » by tontoz » Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:40 pm

closg00 wrote:Understood Fish, I need to kick Ernie every once in-a-while even though my heart isn't in it anymore :)


You just need to find some motivation from somewhere.





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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#608 » by pineappleheadindc » Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:49 am

The Wiz not having a pick in the draft has got me completely uninterested in the Wizards off-season. Perhaps when it's FA signing period, I'll think about it more, but for now Ernie Grunfeld has personally killed any enthusiasm I had for this team. #ThanksErnie #ThanksTed
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#609 » by McFilthy » Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:03 am

pineappleheadindc wrote:The Wiz not having a pick in the draft has got me completely uninterested in the Wizards off-season. Perhaps when it's FA signing period, I'll think about it more, but for now Ernie Grunfeld has personally killed any enthusiasm I had for this team. #ThanksErnie #ThanksTed


EG trading away all the picks has the added benefit (for Ernie) that he gets to skip draft scouting as well. Wait... perhaps he is researching the hidden gems that might go undrafted... :lol: Naaah, who am I kidding?

Seriously, is Ernie too lazy to put in the work on researching potential draftees or does he not synthesize all the data on the players well?
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#610 » by keynote » Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:11 am

I was listening to a Woj podcast where he interviewed Daryl Morey. Morey noted that this offseason will be especially challenging:

1) Everybody has cap room, but there aren't that many great FAs available. And, because of the size of the cap, it'll be harder for teams to slot veterans into the MLE. The market will be uncertain: agents won't want to sign quickly, for fear that comparable players get $2-3M/yr more the next week; teams will be cautious, since they'll have no idea how to price the middle class guys in the New Economy. So, after the true max guys are gone, the key measure of success will be whether teams can get value, or whether they'll end up overpaying.

2) Morey noted that more than half of the teams in the draft want to trade out. So, there's the potential for a lot of movement. As such, teams have a greater scouting burden, since they have to prepare for a wider range of contingencies.

Sounds like teams will need a shrewd negotiator heading up a top-notch scouting organization in order to gain a competitive advantage this summer. I don't like our chances, unfortunately.
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#611 » by verbal8 » Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:26 pm

keynote wrote:I was listening to a Woj podcast where he interviewed Daryl Morey. Morey noted that this offseason will be especially challenging:

1) Everybody has cap room, but there aren't that many great FAs available. And, because of the size of the cap, it'll be harder for teams to slot veterans into the MLE. The market will be uncertain: agents won't want to sign quickly, for fear that comparable players get $2-3M/yr more the next week; teams will be cautious, since they'll have no idea how to price the middle class guys in the New Economy. So, after the true max guys are gone, the key measure of success will be whether teams can get value, or whether they'll end up overpaying.

2) Morey noted that more than half of the teams in the draft want to trade out. So, there's the potential for a lot of movement. As such, teams have a greater scouting burden, since they have to prepare for a wider range of contingencies.

Sounds like teams will need a shrewd negotiator heading up a top-notch scouting organization in order to gain a competitive advantage this summer. I don't like our chances, unfortunately.


Not that EG would ever do this, but the Wizards could probably get a 1st back for Morris(it wouldn't be as good as the pick given up).
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#612 » by closg00 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:30 pm

Just following the pre-draft trade activity, I wonder what we could have gotten with our 13th pick if we had held it to today?
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#613 » by verbal8 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:13 am

closg00 wrote:Just following the pre-draft trade activity, I wonder what we could have gotten with our 13th pick if we had held it to today?


Probably George Hill or Teague(makes less sense) or Thad Young and Bellini.
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#615 » by payitforward » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:31 pm

The problem is that it's too late for this generation of the Wizards. Once Ernie fills out the roster this year w/ untradable overpaid FAs on multi-year, late-career contracts, he'll have made it another 4+ year process to turn the team around. A true disaster.
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#616 » by FAH1223 » Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:33 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/postsports/status/746870513356648448[/tweet]
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#617 » by closg00 » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:00 pm

payitforward wrote:The problem is that it's too late for this generation of the Wizards. Once Ernie fills out the roster this year w/ untradable overpaid FAs on multi-year, late-career contracts, he'll have made it another 4+ year process to turn the team around. A true disaster.


This is how he keeps the con going. I know better than to think that Ted will finally fire him.

Now we wait to see who he panic-signs first, this is inevitable.
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#618 » by fishercob » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:47 pm

payitforward wrote:The problem is that it's too late for this generation of the Wizards. Once Ernie fills out the roster this year w/ untradable overpaid FAs on multi-year, late-career contracts, he'll have made it another 4+ year process to turn the team around. A true disaster.


I don't think it's quite so dire. Portland lost four starters and finished fifth in the west. Teams can make quick turnarounds -- they just need someone smart and forward-thinking makind the decisions. The Wizards don't have that.
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#619 » by MOrgil » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:33 am

I hate Ernie Grunfeld so much...
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Re: Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2) 

Post#620 » by thebigE » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:54 am

Let me guess, the goal is to make the playoffs, right Ted and Ernie? So exactly when can we discuss winning the championship? What's that? Not as long as you two are in the front office. I see.

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