'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[lorak]

I'm really disappointed with Curry. Not only because of that one game (however as MVP and arguably GOAT he should have done more), but his overall performance in the finals. Green's absence showed obvious thing (how important he is), but also that Steph isn't elite playmaker.

On the other hand Klay is clear winner of these playoffs. I thought he didn't deserve max contract, but he definitely does. His defense is amazing and he is not only playing like typical defensive stoper, but at the same time he is offensive force. I wish we could see what he could do on his team.

[mtron929]

I feel like Curry's 15-16 season is a nightmare case for people who value using statistical analysis to rank/evaluate players and compare seasons. That is, you have a guy who had an incredible regular season but a relatively disappointing playoffs. You can discount it to small sample size, health, and other factors that might salvage his brilliance but we cannot also dismiss the possibility that Curry might just not play optimally when the game becomes physical (which inevitably happens during the playoffs). If that is the case, one can make a compelling argument that Curry's regular season performance, which for the most part happened under highly ideal conditions for him, should be minimized in its importance.

As for myself, I don't even rely on statistical methods that much when mentally evaluating players but I am totally confused. I was so sure that current Curry was a superior player than the current Lebron but now I am not so sure anymore. In other words, let's say player A plays at a level 99 against above average to bad competition, but plays at a level 80 against few (3-4) cream of the crop best teams when the stakes are high (i.e. playoff games). And player B plays at a level 90 against above average to bad competition, but plays at a level 85 against few (3-4) cream of the crop best teams. I think i would rather prefer player B than A. Perhaps Curry is akin to player A.

[Doctor MJ]

I think we can throw out the idea Lebron needed to do less last season in the Finals now.

I know the idea was brought up, but my main sticking point back then was simply that it wasn't actually working well offensively. Not saying another way would have worked as well, but people saw the stats and said "GOAT!" when what they said to me was that it just wasn't a way to play on a serious offense hoping to actually have a high ORtg.

I'll also add that tonight seems like it was basically about as good as it will ever get for a LeBron-based offense, and that's a problem, because it was not remotely sustainable. And by that I mean more than that the Big 2 won't always shoot like that, but that even when things are going perfectly you're going to have Mark Jackson complaining about one of LeBron's supposed star offensive teammates being a disappointment.

Love's defense is problematic and we all know that, but I'm watching this offense and wondering what Love could even do out there to help. There's no room for a 3rd scoring option, there's no room for a great passer, and this guy who led the league in rebounding not too long ago has to stay out further form the rim than LeBron or Kyrie in order to give them the space they need to operate. Obviously that implies that a SF would be a better fit than a PF, but even then, if that guy were known for being an offensive star, he'd soon be getting talked about as 'too passive'.

I'm turning totally on Love, he just looks so lost.

But as for the rest, maybe it was the best, but it didn't need to be that good. They held GSW to a 94ish O Rating, and 74 in the 2nd half. They don;t have any better options and finally went with the one that gave the best shot at winning and for the 2nd year in a row it worked.

Hmm. Responding to your thoughts though they don't really seem like they are meant to be rebuttals.

What I would note on the numbers you post is that if a team has a 94 O rating with 74 in the 2nd half, then that means it was about 114 in the first half, which means that it makes little sense to talk about overall O rating like it was a full game success.

The Warriors were fine as long as they were really hitting their shots, and then when they went cold, that was all she wrote.

[bondom34]

The Warriors were fine as long as they were really hitting their shots, and then when they went cold, that was all she wrote.

Agree, but to me at some point the well may run dry at which point an offense better than depending on video game shots may be needed, and I don't know if they have anyone to do it. Curry hasn't been hitting much at all, and Klay has in stretches but if he goes cold a full game? Its over for them.

Unlikely it happens, but I've been really unimpressed by GSW in general once they reached the harder competition the last 2 rounds.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm actually trying to think of what Love does well enough that would warrant him to have a bigger role in the offense. He's not a good enough finisher or scorer to really contribute in any way other than to stand at the 3pt line. In fact, the least he could do is hit those open 3s at a higher clip.

My point is that basically no matter who the 3rd option would be, he'd look disappointing.

Love deserves plenty of criticism for not being able to adapt to the new role, plus the defensive issues, but what's clear about it fundamentally is that Love is being pushed outward to a role more like "stay out there and be ready", which isn't really a great offensive plan for your 3rd best player period, let alone one who works so well on the inside and is known for his excellent passing.

Others would handle the situation better, but only someone without the reputation of being an offensive star would actually escape criticism were he to play with LeBron & Kyrie.

[Doctor MJ]

Let's see how curry performs without draymond the Warriors are Iike +55 with draymond on the court and - 15 without him.

As for my top player this year I'm leaning pretty close to Westbrook .

-30 without Draymond now if thats the case. Could his Fmvp case actually have been strengthened without playing?

This game really reminded me of that Nuggets game without Draymond. Kyrie/Lebron were hitting shots they dont normally but those pickandrolls early really got them in a groove. The Warriors are such a poor pickandroll defending team without Draymond and it showed in that Nuggets game too. As well as their rim protection dissolving.

As someone who had been using +/- stats for over a decade...no. I can see an argument for Green still deserving a shot at Finals MVP if he plays well enough in Game 6/7, but it doesn't make sense to say "They'd fall apart without him" here to me.

You mention how Green's absence let them get in the groove, but there's a lot more to it than that. It was clear that LeBron went into this game thinking, "I'm just going to have to take those shots". Clearly much of his issue is with confidence, and while Green's absence helped him be more confident, LeBron's confidence isn't a game issue, it's a season issue which LeBron had the courage to turn the corner on because his team was in an elimination game.

[Doctor MJ]

The Warriors were fine as long as they were really hitting their shots, and then when they went cold, that was all she wrote.

Agree, but to me at some point the well may run dry at which point an offense better than depending on video game shots may be needed, and I don't know if they have anyone to do it. Curry hasn't been hitting much at all, and Klay has in stretches but if he goes cold a full game? Its over for them.

Unlikely it happens, but I've been really unimpressed by GSW in general once they reached the harder competition the last 2 rounds.

ftr, Steph Curry is hitting with a TS% of nearly 60%, considerably more efficient than Klay while scoring more than Klay, while playing in a series that the team might have won in 5 games if they'd had their full lineup.

The well seems fine to me.

I do understand that Curry hasn't been scoring at huge volume, and obviously that would be a think you wish for, but again, the Cleveland's defense is utterly geared toward sticking to Curry, which they know will open up other options, and Golden State is winning.

I just think people overreact.

[bondom34]

That's fair, I'm just still a bit disappointed overall at the team who was looking like they'd nearly sweep the playoffs look really down compared to how they did against what was just weaker comp in the end.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm really disappointed with Curry. Not only because of that one game (however as MVP and arguably GOAT he should have done more), but his overall performance in the finals. Green's absence showed obvious thing (how important he is), but also that Steph isn't elite playmaker.

On the other hand Klay is clear winner of these playoffs. I thought he didn't deserve max contract, but he definitely does. His defense is amazing and he is not only playing like typical defensive stoper, but at the same time he is offensive force. I wish we could see what he could do on his team.

Eh, in general right now Curry is playing a lot of time off-ball because that is the best way to either allow him to get as many open shots as possible and it maximizes his impact contorting defensive spacing.

I'm not saying Curry is an elite playmaker necessarily, but the way the Warriors play him now, I'm literally unsure of what exactly you wanted him to do within that role.

Also, while you're so much more impressed with Klay, for the series:

Curry 22.2 PPG, Klay 19.6, on similar efficiency, with Curry being the one to show up in their big victory, and Klay not really showing up in any of the victories.

I think your feelings are echoed by others, but what they point to is just two entirely different standards. Klay is getting praised because people only really focus on him when he catches fire while Curry gets blasted whenever he's not on fire. Ordinarily that wouldn't bother me because that's what star pecking order does, but you've got people right now saying that Klay has been clearly superior to Curry, and I don't see what the basis is for that.

Klay is a 2nd option who can catch fire, and who literally always has the space to catch fire if he's able. Thus far, I've seen him seriously catch fire once in each of the past two series, yet people talk like it's happening every game.

[Krodis]

Yeah, Klay had a pretty bad series up until last night so I don't think it makes much sense to give him too much praise. People really do seem to ignore his bad games.

[Doctor MJ]

Speaking more generally:

I feel like people are using (at least) two different lenses for how they are evaluating the play out there:

1) Most people get what the Warriors are about. Pace & space. Extreme version. Relying on two incredible shooters as two top scoring options yes, but the team flows in a way that reminds me the '70s Knicks or the Clockwork Orange Netherlands team with Cruijff.

There are some people who complain that all they do is shoot 3's, but those folks are clearly just focusing on the shot and not on everything leading up to the shot. While the shot making is amazing, what makes the team so watchable is what happens before the shot.

2) But when people look to actually judge the players, they tend to insist on doing based on the numbers they think stars should put up, which leads some to say things like "LeBron's clearly the best player, Curry just has better teammates."

My crusade isn't so much to say that the statement is wrong as it is to recognize:

The way LeBron is playing he couldn't ever have teammates like Curry. Kerr has devised a scheme that makes use of Curry and now Klay to let everyone be involved and which happily lets those other guys capitalize if the defense focuses too much on the stars.

So yeah, in principle I'm actually okay with someone siding with LeBron here, but I just see a lot of people ripping Curry while essentially watching Golden State remain totally content with what's happening. And all you need to do is listen to Kerr out there.

While Cleveland did all they could to stop Curry first and Klay second, Kerr flat out said he was totally fine getting beat by LeBron & Kyrie when they shot like they did. He could have tried to adjust the defense to make Cleveland beat them in other ways. He didn't, and I think at this point Kerr has proven that this isn't because he's a lazy coach. He's just has clarity that this is a 7 game series, and if a team is beating the scheme you had thought was your best approach in a way you don't think can be sustained over 7 games, you should probably stick with it.

The contrast between the way Kerr doesn't overreact to individual games and the basketball internet acts like the sky is falling couldn't be more stark and to me it says precisely why Kerr is so damn good. I'm frankly in awe of how collected he is given that he's such a new coach.

[bondom34]

I don't think Kerr is abnormally calm for a coach, he just really didn't have a ton of options without Green. And its pretty rare for a coach to ever admit to panic when he's up 3-2 in the finals.

I'm also not really sure there's a ton of overreaction suddenly popping up (at least here, the GB is a different thing entirely) so much as a lot of lingering issues a few people have seen for a while that seem to be growing.

[ceiling raiser]

As someone who had been using +/- stats for over a decade...no. I can see an argument for Green still deserving a shot at Finals MVP if he plays well enough in Game 6/7, but it doesn't make sense to say "They'd fall apart without him" here to me.

You mention how Green's absence let them get in the groove, but there's a lot more to it than that. It was clear that LeBron went into this game thinking, "I'm just going to have to take those shots". Clearly much of his issue is with confidence, and while Green's absence helped him be more confident, LeBron's confidence isn't a game issue, it's a season issue which LeBron had the courage to turn the corner on because his team was in an elimination game.

Even if GS struggling in his absence doesn't improve his FMVP case, does it do anything for him in terms of your POY ballot? Or is it too hard to un-see him struggling against KD and having to essentially relinquish ball-handling duties in that series, on top of OKC is preventing Green from playing the 5 for heavy minutes while being effective against their frontline?

[Texas Chuck]

Lost in all this Love angst is the complete and utter disappearance of JR Smith in ways that are baffling. Who ever thought JR Smith would be killing his team because he's not shooting enough? But they really really need his shooting and for him to present a threat and he is just gliding through games on the offensive end.

[lorak]

Eh, in general right now Curry is playing a lot of time off-ball because that is the best way to either allow him to get as many open shots as possible and it maximizes his impact contorting defensive spacing.

(...)

I think your feelings are echoed by others, but what they point to is just two entirely different standards.

1. Klay is playing elite defense through whole playoffs: Harden, Lillard, Westbrook...anyone ever faced such offensive talent as defensive stoper? And on offense he is 3rd option, while Curry is MVP and not so long ago "arguably GOAT season", so of course there are different standards judging them.

2. I'm not sure Curry is playing more off the ball now. According to sportVU he is on ball longer than in regular season or any other playoff round:

Code: Select all

TYPE   avg sec per touch
RS   3.81
1R   3.55
CSF   4.38
CF   4.21
F   4.47


He also dribbles the ball more:

Code: Select all

TYPE   avg drib per touch
RS   3.68
1R   3.50
CSF   4.28
CF   4.22
F   4.38


However he gets less touches:

Code: Select all

TYPE   touches p36
RS   90,5
1R   94,7
CSF   85,3
CF   89,6
F   76,6


So that might be "more off the ball", but rather not because it's Warriors coaching staff decision, but Cavs defend him so well. Steph has problems to get the ball, and when he gets it, then he doesn't have good looks he usually has and thus he has to dribble the ball more - and that's not his strength, I mean he is very good ballhandler, but he has turnovers problems, he isn't elite playmaker and definitely that kind of game isn't his main game. I think we should credit Lue or whoever is responsible for Cleveland's defensive game plan.

[HeartBreakKid]

Yeah...I'm a little confused about the Kerr praise in Doc MJ's post. Anyone got a link of a coach saying anything different after losing a game? Pretty much every coach says one game at a time.

[MisterHibachi]

I think the Love issue is overblown. Yeah, he's struggling, but dude just suffered a concussion a week ago. Klay got a concussion against the Rockets last year, had a week off, and still was generally lost and out of it against the Cavs. These things don't disappear overnight.

[Nbafanatic]

Kyrie reminded me yesterday of his fantastic performance against the Spurs in 2015, and Lebron did his best game of the season, hands down. MVP of the Cavs from game 5 for you guys? It was Lebron to me, he was also amazing defensively, like Durant on the previous series.

[mikejames23]

Curry seems to have the "calm" about him as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv2j-YnmecU

Kobe detailed that in the first 45 seconds of that video (no need to watch first take beyond that).

As far as LeBron's defense, I've felt he should make all defensive teams on basis of the sheer value he brings to the court just by being there. Present. Simply put, the guy takes up a lot of space, he's athletic, and he has an IQ off the charts - put these together and he's got top defensive value within the league.

On another note... where be Channing Frye?

[RSCD3_]

I'm really disappointed with Curry. Not only because of that one game (however as MVP and arguably GOAT he should have done more), but his overall performance in the finals. Green's absence showed obvious thing (how important he is), but also that Steph isn't elite playmaker.

On the other hand Klay is clear winner of these playoffs. I thought he didn't deserve max contract, but he definitely does. His defense is amazing and he is not only playing like typical defensive stoper, but at the same time he is offensive force. I wish we could see what he could do on his team.

Eh, in general right now Curry is playing a lot of time off-ball because that is the best way to either allow him to get as many open shots as possible and it maximizes his impact contorting defensive spacing.

I'm not saying Curry is an elite playmaker necessarily, but the way the Warriors play him now, I'm literally unsure of what exactly you wanted him to do within that role.

Also, while you're so much more impressed with Klay, for the series:

Curry 22.2 PPG, Klay 19.6, on similar efficiency, with Curry being the one to show up in their big victory, and Klay not really showing up in any of the victories.

I think your feelings are echoed by others, but what they point to is just two entirely different standards. Klay is getting praised because people only really focus on him when he catches fire while Curry gets blasted whenever he's not on fire. Ordinarily that wouldn't bother me because that's what star pecking order does, but you've got people right now saying that Klay has been clearly superior to Curry, and I don't see what the basis is for that.

Klay is a 2nd option who can catch fire, and who literally always has the space to catch fire if he's able. Thus far, I've seen him seriously catch fire once in each of the past two series, yet people talk like it's happening every game.

Well curry has been good off ball in drawing attention but he has 23 assists / 22 turnovers this series. His offense hasnt been that much more impressive than his scoring alone would indicate and that was one pf the reasons people were xalling him the offensive goat.

Granted he's clearly in suboptimal shape. But still some of these turnovers have been really lazy.