'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[lorak]

Well, Kyrie has played well in 3/5 games, while Curry has played well in 1/5 games. And in one of those games, it wasn't just a great game from Kyrie, it was one of the best offensive performances ever.

Kyrie has absolutely outplayed Curry, it's not even close imo.

Only if you don't look at defense.

Also, Irving was great in G5 because he was GOAT hot but that same iso style of play was deadly for Cavs in previous games. So while he might have better individual numbers because of that it doesn't mean he played better.

Curry's been terrible defensively...

He is not - both eye test and sportVU data confirms that. Irving on the other hand... he has been really terrible on defense.

[therealbig3]

What are you basing Curry being terrible defensively on? Because of Irving's numbers? Irving's been lighting up Klay too. Is Curry doing something specifically wrong on defense? He's always moving his feet, always contesting, and he has good hands. I rarely see players have much success against him 1 on 1.

He's a good defender. Not elite, not bad.

[lorak]

"[In Game 5] Kyrie had an effective FG% of 80.4%. Per @BenAlamarESPN, his shot quality was so tough that an avg player would shoot 45.5% on same shots. Kyrie's effective FG% in the series before Game 5? 46.1%. If you're Kerr, you have plenty of reason to think Game 5 was an aberration."

[E-Balla]

Only if you don't look at defense.

Also, Irving was great in G5 because he was GOAT hot but that same iso style of play was deadly for Cavs in previous games. So while he might have better individual numbers because of that it doesn't mean he played better.

Curry's been terrible defensively...

He is not - both eye test and sportVU data confirms that. Irving on the other hand... he has been really terrible on defense.

What are you basing Curry being terrible defensively on? Because of Irving's numbers? Irving's been lighting up Klay too. Is Curry doing something specifically wrong on defense? He's always moving his feet, always contesting, and he has good hands. I rarely see players have much success against him 1 on 1.

He's a good defender. Not elite, not bad.

He's not contesting, not moving his feet, and he's not paying attention off ball at all. Kyrie lit up other people as well but Curry wasn't even contesting well like they were. IDK what you guys are watching but he's been cleanly crossed a ton this series, Lebron is posting up on him on the occasional mismatch (he hasn't taken advantage of it yet) and even JR Smith has been trying to pick on him (hasn't worked though because he's missing). IDK what eye test you're using but sportsuv doesn't take into account his opponents missing easy shots. Last game there was a play where JR badly missed a shot after posting up Curry but he was literally under the rim. Sportsuv takes that as a Curry miss but watching it he clearly got beat and there's a ton of other plays where he's giving up penetration that leads to buckets. It's obvious to me and many others watching the games that his defense is lacking. If you think otherwise that's cool but I don't think you're paying enough attention off ball and I think you're giving him a pass on not guarding Kyrie well because Kyrie is killing defenses that guard him well anyway.

[E-Balla]

"[In Game 5] Kyrie had an effective FG% of 80.4%. Per @BenAlamarESPN, his shot quality was so tough that an avg player would shoot 45.5% on same shots. Kyrie's effective FG% in the series before Game 5? 46.1%. If you're Kerr, you have plenty of reason to think Game 5 was an aberration."

1. That doesn't make how wl they're contested into account.

2. I don't care about the fact that he made them I care about how well they're contested. TT and Klay guarded him incredibly tight. Curry not so much.

[lorak]

Defensive FG% in the finals (difference from normal FG% defended players shot):

Curry 12.2 DFG, 45,9% (0.0)
Irving 14.6 DFG, 60.3% (+11.2)

So you can discredit data whatever way you want but evidence here is overwhelming.

If I'm not mistaken Irving scored just 7 pts vs Curry in G5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qg4B9R8K0c
Defense on that one 3p might be not so good, but on these 2p shots Curry was as good as Klay: 3:40; 4:18 I can't belive you really said that Curry is not contesting shots...

PS
And it was different series, but you don't suddenly became bad defender in one or two weeks (Curry's DFG% was 43.3 [-3.1]):

[Doctor MJ]

I didn't even come close to implying he's shooting inefficiently though (I should have used a different word than "failing" though - meant to say underperforming, which is more consistent with the tone of my post anyway) - I said relative to the looks he's been getting, he should be playing better, making more of those open looks. It's not like it's just in this series too - he's been missing those at a higher rate than his average since OKC.

Yes, a 110 ORTG, which is 4.5 behind where they were in the RS. Nobody here is saying Golden State isn't playing well, or that Cleveland is having massive success - it makes even less sense to say that the posts here are saying this.

Cleveland's working really freaking hard, and they're FAILING. They've left him completely wide open far more than is expected. Nowhere did I, or pretty much anyone say all we can see is Curry choking - he's underperforming relative to his RS, a RS where he posted possibly the GOAT peak, against defenses that were trying to do the same thing. Why isn't he able to replicate it to the same extent? Is this not a valid question?

Posing this question does not devalue anything that Curry's doing in these Finals, or what he's done so far. It's essentially asking, is there some fundamental characteristic of his play, or the way that his impact is achieved, that doesn't translate as well to the playoffs? Is this due to fatigue instead?

Your last paragraph - you heard a talking head on the radio, but you're directing criticism here? No one in here is saying, or is even implying that Curry's the 6th best player in the series, lol. I think you're way too defensive of Curry here - everyone should still have them #1 on their ballots, unless they see, or have seen something in the playoffs that tells them he can't replicate the impact there (and frankly, I don't see it or don't see enough evidence to suggest it at the moment - except for his missing open shots and 1v1 defense)

GSP, who is posting in this thread, said in the Curry thread that Curry was only the #5 guy in the series. Can't remember if it was before the last game or not.

I probably shouldn't have mentioned radio folks, because none of us respect those guys very much, but I wanted to anchor it in something real and I didn't really want to call out any individual posters here.

Regardless, the bottom line is that you shouldn't be under the illusion that the way Curry is getting blasted right now is in any way limited merely to his GOAT regular season standards, or only among casual fans. The knives are out like crazy everywhere I look and the points I"m making here quite honestly I"m not seeing anyone anywhere saying despite the fact to me they seem like what every knowledgeable fan should be saying in response to the literal criticisms being bandied about.

Obviously what we're talking about here to some degree is polarization. If your dominant feeling is that Curry is disappointing you then you're not likely to spend a lot of time defending him when someone makes outlandish criticisms toward Curry. That's understandable, what's not understandable to me is why I feel like i'm about the only one talking about how all of this can be largely explained simply by each team's series strategy, which to me is the most interesting aspect to study.

I'm not sure if this is within the rules - but GSP has an extremely obvious agenda and probably shouldn't be taken seriously. I thought he was just an extremely impassioned fan at first, but a recent post of his is tantamount to a tacit admission of his trolling (or willful ignorance). If your points were addressed to criticism like that mostly, fair enough, but that's not the prevailing thought on this forum, I think.

Honestly, it's also probably a matter of perception - everyone who's a regular poster is smart enough not to overreact, and therefore don't really take any of the criticism seriously. Another point - the few crazies who have blasted Curry may have been what stuck with you, but there have been threads pointing out the lack of sever, talking head backlash against Curry (the same way LeBron would be for example, if he similarly underperformed compared to his usual standard). So the lack of responses isn't that - it's that people haven't really seen criticism of Curry on the media to generate a response like that.

I honestly haven't seen outlandish criticism of Curry, but he'll either be defended, or those criticisms ignored when it comes to that. This forum's done it time and again, I don't see why that won't continue. From my POV, there's no need to defend Curry, just to contextualize his numbers - he has massive impact when he's out there, whether his jumper's falling or not - but I feel the high (in comparison to league avg. not compared to himself) TS%, for example, needs context.

On strategy: teams have been trying to trap Curry all season long. He put up great numbers regardless, near 30 ppg on 70% TS. The Cavs have tried to do the same thing, with inferior defenders (and execution) - why is there such a big drop off? This isn't in disagreement with anything you're saying - he's still having a MASSIVE impact, because he has to be defended the way he is. But he's seen it all season long, and the drop in box score numbers is precipitous. Is it because the Cavs are doing it more often than the rest of the league? Because they sure as hell aren't doing it better, and Curry still gets to do what he wants.

Whether it's due to fatigue, or due to some other reason, I don't think any of that changes the fact that Curry's off-ball impact is massive (though was it lorak who showed he has been handling the ball more?). The aim of these discussions have always been to enlighten, and I think it's in good faith when people inquire further into the nature of a player's impact and ability in order to assess him better. Trolls like GSP shouldn't factor into this equation, IMO.

Yeah, let's back off the judgment here - although I'll say that while I can't remember specifics very well, I know I've been impressed by GSP on multiple occasions.

Getting into the nuts & bolts more, I feel like we're not coming together here:

You're asking why the huge drop off when Golden State's offense is basically doing fine and not because Klay or anyone else has emerged as the new alpha. Literally Cleveland's defensive strategy here hasn't really had any major success here. They've allocated a lot of energy in one place, but GS's ORtg is still right around what you'd expect it to be given the two opponents involved.

This isn't to say that I'm insistent that Curry is absolutely at his peak self - I'm frankly trying to avoid conversations about injuries here because in the end all of these guys are dealing with ailments and we don't know how bad each is, and I don't want to be making excuses - but if you were to tell me before the series started that Cleveland was going to focus on making guys other than Curry beat them, and that as a result Curry would still score better than anyone else on his team and well by all sane standards but that he'd see a dropoff but the rest of the team would thrive in the face of a defensive strategy not geared toward them and the overall ORtg would be in the ballpark of what you'd expect before focusing on strategy, none of that would really surprise me.

[Doctor MJ]

What are you basing Curry being terrible defensively on? Because of Irving's numbers? Irving's been lighting up Klay too. Is Curry doing something specifically wrong on defense? He's always moving his feet, always contesting, and he has good hands. I rarely see players have much success against him 1 on 1.

He's a good defender. Not elite, not bad.

Yeah, I don't see how it makes sense to say anything like "Cleveland's offense has been successful because Curry is such a weak link they just let whoever he's guarding go to work." Quite clearly at this point the only reason why Cleveland is in this series at all is that Kyrie & LeBron have at times gone into modes where no one-on-one defender can stop them.

Klay absolutely is a better man defender than Curry, but Kyrie didn't seem at all bothered by him in Game 5.

[Doctor MJ]

Alright, I'm definitely not seeing it the same, but to each his own.

He is better than JVG and Mark Jackson though.

And neither of them are employed.

I'm really taken aback by how skeptical of Kerr you are.

[bondom34]

He is better than JVG and Mark Jackson though.

And neither of them are employed.

I'm really taken aback by how skeptical of Kerr you are.

I'm not skeptical, he took GSW's offense to a higher level. But you're claiming he's doing something amazing with rotations and players when honestly he's doing exactly what anyone here would have done and for not openly being in a panic to the media, which no good coach ever does. I'm honestly more amazed you're giving credit for really basic stuff that I'd expect out of an average to poor coach.

He's worthy of some praise, just not for what you're saying.

And I'm not really sure what I replied to w/ JB was wrong, he is better than those 2, and employed.

[Colbinii]

I'm not skeptical, he took GSW's offense to a higher level. But you're claiming he's doing something amazing with rotations and players when honestly he's doing exactly what anyone here would have done and for not openly being in a panic to the media, which no good coach ever does. I'm honestly more amazed you're giving credit for really basic stuff that I'd expect out of an average to poor coach.

He's worthy of some praise, just not for what you're saying.

And I'm not really sure what I replied to w/ JB was wrong, he is better than those 2, and employed.

I know you haven't brought up Phil Jackson, but I assume you think he is a top 5 coach of all-time.
What makes what Phil Jackson did with MJ and Shaq/Kobe better than what Kerr has done with this roster?

[bondom34]

I'm not skeptical, he took GSW's offense to a higher level. But you're claiming he's doing something amazing with rotations and players when honestly he's doing exactly what anyone here would have done and for not openly being in a panic to the media, which no good coach ever does. I'm honestly more amazed you're giving credit for really basic stuff that I'd expect out of an average to poor coach.

He's worthy of some praise, just not for what you're saying.

And I'm not really sure what I replied to w/ JB was wrong, he is better than those 2, and employed.

I know you haven't brought up Phil Jackson, but I assume you think he is a top 5 coach of all-time.
What makes what Phil Jackson did with MJ and Shaq/Kobe better than what Kerr has done with this roster?

Honestly wasn't a big NBA fan at the time, but I'd assume ego management was something.

But that's really not relevant at all to what I think of Kerr. Yeah, he's a good coach, but there wasn't anything he did this series or postseason to upgrade my opinion. I don't give brownie points for not going into a panic after a loss.

[colts18]

I'm not skeptical, he took GSW's offense to a higher level. But you're claiming he's doing something amazing with rotations and players when honestly he's doing exactly what anyone here would have done and for not openly being in a panic to the media, which no good coach ever does. I'm honestly more amazed you're giving credit for really basic stuff that I'd expect out of an average to poor coach.

He's worthy of some praise, just not for what you're saying.

And I'm not really sure what I replied to w/ JB was wrong, he is better than those 2, and employed.

You have to give credit to Kerr for the rotations. He benched Iguodala for Barnes. He started Green over Lee. He played the death lineup. He made all of those decisions and they have worked.

[bondom34]

I'm not skeptical, he took GSW's offense to a higher level. But you're claiming he's doing something amazing with rotations and players when honestly he's doing exactly what anyone here would have done and for not openly being in a panic to the media, which no good coach ever does. I'm honestly more amazed you're giving credit for really basic stuff that I'd expect out of an average to poor coach.

He's worthy of some praise, just not for what you're saying.

And I'm not really sure what I replied to w/ JB was wrong, he is better than those 2, and employed.

You have to give credit to Kerr for the rotations. He benched Iguodala for Barnes. He started Green over Lee. He played the death lineup. He made all of those decisions and they have worked.

This series?

[Texas Chuck]

He started Green over Lee because Lee was hurt. And I think most coaches wouldn't have gone back to Lee after watching how great Green performed.

I think Kerr is maybe the smartest coach in the entire league. And I really like him. But I'm with bondom that some of the lovefest is confusing here. Much like it was with Donovan in the last round.

I'm not seeing any major tactical decisions that are winning the series for the Warriors. They have a better team, Kerr is certainly part of that but I'd actually suggest his rotation decisions have been sub-optimal. No reason McAdoo should be getting minutes at all for instance.

[Texas Chuck]

Well with the news that Bogut is done, that gives Kerr a chance to show. I'll assume they just start with the Death Lineup? I would anyway.

[lorak]

I'm not seeing any major tactical decisions that are winning the series for the Warriors.

So what would you expect him to do?

[Texas Chuck]

I'm not seeing any major tactical decisions that are winning the series for the Warriors.

So what would you expect him to do?

I'm not asking him to do anything. He has the better team and he's doing what any half decent coach would do--make the other team adjust to him. I just don't believe that's worth getting too excited about is all.

[kayess]

Yeah, let's back off the judgment here - although I'll say that while I can't remember specifics very well, I know I've been impressed by GSP on multiple occasions.

Yes, I'd like to apologize to GSP (if you're reading). My gripes weren't without basis, but that was unwarranted and I simply wished to demonstrate that his opinion is in the minority (or the solitary, even) on this board

Getting into the nuts & bolts more, I feel like we're not coming together here:

You're asking why the huge drop off when Golden State's offense is basically doing fine and not because Klay or anyone else has emerged as the new alpha. Literally Cleveland's defensive strategy here hasn't really had any major success here. They've allocated a lot of energy in one place, but GS's ORtg is still right around what you'd expect it to be given the two opponents involved.

The offense is fine, I'm not saying it isn't. It's just that, if I told you that GSW was going to face a team they have huge mismatches against at the 1 and 4, even if the team were technically above average on D in the regular season, wouldn't you expect little to no drop-off, if at all? I'm not saying it's all on Curry or something, but

The Cavs defensive strategy is technically a success because their ORTG this series is lower than GS' season average, AND their ORTG against the Cavs in previous games - but I wouldn't call it anywhere close to a success because they're extremely lucky that Curry and the Warriors are missing open shots (of course it must be said - they've been making some ridiculous contested shots too. Not Kyrie game 5 level, but still).

Sidenote: idk where I got the 110 ORTG number, but NBAstats has it at 106.9 - what's the difference between this and b-ref again? I keep forgetting

This isn't to say that I'm insistent that Curry is absolutely at his peak self - I'm frankly trying to avoid conversations about injuries here because in the end all of these guys are dealing with ailments and we don't know how bad each is, and I don't want to be making excuses - but if you were to tell me before the series started that Cleveland was going to focus on making guys other than Curry beat them, and that as a result Curry would still score better than anyone else on his team and well by all sane standards but that he'd see a dropoff but the rest of the team would thrive in the face of a defensive strategy not geared toward them and the overall ORtg would be in the ballpark of what you'd expect before focusing on strategy, none of that would really surprise me.

Let's break down that statement into parts:

1) Cavs focusing on letting other guys beat them
2) Curry still scores better than anyone else on his team
3) Curry has a drop-off
4) Rest of the team thrives in the face of a defensive strategy not geared towards them
5) Overall ORTG in the ball park of what you'd expect

What I would like to know is which points below do you disagree with:

- 1 has been happening all year, and yet 2 still happens
- His margin isn't as big over the others though, compared to the RS: why? Bear in mind: the Cavs are only +2 better than league average D - do you expect him to drop ~8 pts and ~6 TS (my math, memory, or both might be mistaken) given that he has such a matchup advantage vs. Kyrie? And if they're selling out so hard to stop him, why isn't everyone else overperforming?
- 4 and 5 are true, to an extent, but their ORTG's down by 4.5-6 (b-ref/NBAstats), and their NetRtg over the Cavs (+5-6 in the RS) is down to +3 now.

It's the first two bullets that are puzzling: if something's happened over a greater sample (albeit against slightly better competition), and the drop-off in both 3 and 4/5 is way more than you'd expect from the increase in competition, then it demands inquiry into why this is so, yes?

[mikejames23]

Were Donovan such a great coach, he'd have deviced a different scheme for OKC's 4th Quarter troubles. It's somewhat embarrassing for a team when the pattern keeps predictably repeating all across the regular season and playoffs - especially when you seem to have the tools to make something different happen.

I feel Kerr dodged a bullet this playoffs. There was a very real chance the decision to go for 73 wins would've come back to bite him. Luckily, GSW escaped OKC, Curry's injury still allows him to be great every other game, and I am still not convinced Cleveland has a shot at pulling away in this series. It was a remarkable feat for sure but Kerr could've lost 5 more games and still had the best record in the league, in addition to having a smoother ride in the playoffs.