Offseason Summary

[whitehops]

I don't want to call this a mock so I'll call it a summary from my point of view. Here's our basic situation:



so basically we could have a max of about $25 million in cap space.

for this exercise i'm going to assume that we re-sign drummond to the max but his cap hold counts against us in free agency before we actually re-sign him. this is our general depth chart as of now:

PG: Reggie Jackson
SG: KCP/Stanley Johnson/Reggie Bullock/Jodie Meeks/Darrun Hilliard
SF: Marcus Morris/Tobias Harris/Stanley Johnson/Reggie Bullock
PF: Tobias Harris/Marcus Morris
C: Andre Drummond/Aron Baynes

Evaluation
we have something of a logjam at shooting guard, though johnson and bullock (hilliard too maybe) can give minutes at small forward. i'd really only call KCP and johnson a part of the core going forward though. with blake being a free agent and dinwiddie not showing much in his first two years + having a non-guaranteed contract we have a fairly big need at backup PG. the PG on our team initiates the offense a great deal of the time so finding a capable backup is important. We have two versatile forwards that can play PF in harris and morris but really no depth there behind those two. we definitely need to find a third player that can play steady minutes at PF. it would be a bonus if they could shift over to center because we need a third one of those as well. baynes has a player option for 2018 so we might need a backup C as soon as next offseason.

Verdict
we need a backup PG for sure, i think that's our biggest need. SVG has also said a bigger PF that can play C is important too and that fits right in with our need. i'll call that need #2, though those players are more difficult to find. we at least need to find another PF, even if they don't have the PF/C versatility.

that leads me to...

The Draft
We have the 18th pick and the 19th pick of the second round (49th overall)

The pistons have worked out 30 players as of today, their positions are listed as:
PG - 10
SG - 4
SF - 4
PF - 6
C - 6

This kind of falls in line with our biggest needs, putting emphasis on finding a PG or PF/C. let's look at our options to fill our biggest needs at #18:

Wade Baldwin, PG from Vanderbilt - he might be gone before we pick and at this point he's more of a SG. his defensive upside is among the highest in the draft but he's not the best with the ball in his hands.

Demetrius Jackson, PG from Notre Dame - he might also be gone before we pick. he played off ball in his first two years college so his PG skills aren't polished at this point. however, he's a good scorer, is a good spot up shooter and is a terrific athlete. there is some potential for him to play alongside reggie.

Domantas Sabonis, C/PF from Gonzaga - seen him mocked all over but generally higher than we're picking. he has some appeal as one of those PF/C players but i think he's more C than PF. he has some mobility but doesn't have great length and plays below the rim, limiting his defensive ability. his jump shoot is okay but it would take him a couple years to extend his range to the NBA 3 most likely. that said, he would probably be the best player available if he lasted until 18.

Skal Labissiere, PF from Kentucky - Another stretch-4 type player, he is long and athletic, though very raw. he started playing basketball late so he doesn't have the best understanding of the game which could slow down his development as he tries to apply his skills. he would have to gain some weight to play C.

Thon Maker, PF from Canada (high school) - pretty much the same as above except even more raw.

i'll add more viable "needs" and "luxury" picks later...


Free Agency
we won't have any money to sign big-name players and really only enough money to sign one role player with the way contracts are exploding. here are some options that i've highlighted:

Jeremy Lin - he's good at running the pick and roll, good at getting into the paint and could feasibly play alongside reggie. he'll be pricey (i'm guessing $14-16 mil per) but he would be a massive upgrade to the backcourt, especially the bench.

Norris Cole - has really gotten better in the past couple years, he's more of a scorer than passer but can handle the ball fairly well now, get into the paint and can shoot too.

Matthew Dellavedova - he's really improved his skill set this past year and always gives it 100% on defense. he would be a nice compliment to the versatile wing players we have.

jordan clarkson - he's a restricted free agent and likely to be kept by the lakers but he's young, talented and can play both PG and SG (ie. play alongside reggie)

marvin williams - is more of a pure PF but is still a good player

mirza teletovic - is a SF/PF but could replace tolliver's role as a depth stretch-4

solomon hill - played well at the end of the season, he'd be a SF/PF that could be a solid 3+D player for depth if he continues to improve

ryan kelly - not an exciting signing by any stretch but he'd be cheap to bring off the bench as a skilled PF behind harris and morris.


i'll also look for more potential free agents we could target.



i'll tweak/add this post as i don't have more time right now but want to open up discussion.


are there any players, whether in the draft or free agency, that you guys think we could target?

[tmorgan]

I'd guess Lin is on the targets list.

[Snakebites]

I'm a little surprised our cap space is that high.

Where are the earlier projections of only 14-15 million coming from? What's different? What is the basis for the 93 million dollar estimate.

And agreed on Jeremy Lin. We'll be interested in that guy for sure. Its also crazy to think that 18 mill only nets us one role player, though that's probably true and I'd be surprised if we use the majority of that cap space this offseason, unless its in trades.

[DBC10]

Chalmers might make a comeback after tearing his achilles. So maybe him as well?

Though he's already old and past his prime, I doubt he'll ever be 100% again.

If Jarrett Jack can make a comeback from his injury, I wouldn't mind putting together a decentish asset for him via trade should it come to it. The Nets are furiously looking to buy a pick even in the 2nd round. I think he's only making 6.3 million which is pretty good for a combo guard.

[Blkbrd671]

I really think that Baynes will sold high, he was one of the best back up centers last year but for me we need more size for our second unit.

[whitehops]

I'd guess Lin is on the targets list.

right! he hadn't opted out of his contract when i made my original list. he's definitely on our radar though my impression is he'll be looking for a starting job.

Where are the earlier projections of only 14-15 million coming from? What's different? What is the basis for the 93 million dollar estimate.

the initial projections were that the salary cap would be $90 million, maybe that's where the $14-15 million number came from. that would make sense since the league sent out a memo to teams in april with an updated projection of $92 million. I was going off of memory and made a mistake on that. that gives us a max cap space of about $17 million.

Chalmers might make a comeback after tearing his achilles. So maybe him as well?

Though he's already old and past his prime, I doubt he'll ever be 100% again.

If Jarrett Jack can make a comeback from his injury, I wouldn't mind putting together a decentish asset for him via trade should it come to it. The Nets are furiously looking to buy a pick even in the 2nd round. I think he's only making 6.3 million which is pretty good for a combo guard.

i think we saw with jennings how bad achilles injuries can be. personally i think the pistons wouldn't want to go through that again.

and i think that jack's contract is non-guaranteed, so the nets can cut him and save the cap space. it might be worth offering him a one-year deal so he can rehab as a third guard, hopefully he can provide something towards the end of the year.

[Han Solo]

I want Jennings back. Two year deal with a team option. He won't get a big deal. Too many question marks. Jennings was a pro here.

[dVs33]

I want Jennings back. Two year deal with a team option. He won't get a big deal. Too many question marks. Jennings was a pro here.

I'd be happy with Jennings back too. He'd fit right in and he's still fairly young.

[DBC10]

Wouldn't mind Jennings to be the 2nd unit ball-handler that can occasionally play with RJ too.

Hell, we just need a semblance of a backup PG. We had the corpse of Steve Blake running things out there along with our bench goons being 70/30 on any given night whether they'd be hot or cold from shooting.

[Canadafan]

Gonna be interesting. Can't wait to see what we do. Upgrades to Blake and Tolliver will happen, that's the main thing

[tmorgan]

I'm fine with BJ if he's definitely healthy. If he's not, then no.

BJ's defense sucks, but so does RJ's. If we can design a funnelling defense and get another defensive impact 4/5 to play 20 minutes a game, development from Dre should make everything solid. Not ideal, but solid. It might necessitate moving on from Baynes, though, as he's smart and tough, but not a paint patroller by any means.

[coordinator0]

I'm fine with BJ if he's definitely healthy. If he's not, then no.

BJ's defense sucks, but so does RJ's. If we can design a funnelling defense and get another defensive impact 4/5 to play 20 minutes a game, development from Dre should make everything solid. Not ideal, but solid. It might necessitate moving on from Baynes, though, as he's smart and tough, but not a paint patroller by any means.

Baynes is probably opting out after next season anyways. He would hit the free agent market next summer at 30 looking to cash in on one more longer-term deal. That defensive impact 4/5, or another big that can play minutes at center, would have to shoot free throws though because that's still probably going to be a need behind Drummond. I don't think the possible rules changes for the hack-a____ will make that big of a difference to combat teams who resort to it.

[BadMofoPimp]

I would target Mario Chalmers. Dude is great on Defense, drives to the hoop and can shoot 3's. He will be cheap coming off injury as well and has started on a Championship team.

[LaSheed]

I just hate this year's free agent PG. Lin is gonna come here to be a backup. I want a PG that can actually defend.

Have some interest in Galloway but might have to overpay for him.

Jennings knows the offense. Knows his role here and if healthy he can play on a 1 year 9-10 million dollar deal and if he plays well he can get a big deal next offseason. But I'd want a backup PG such as Felder or maybe Ulis to sit behind him for a year.

As for PF/C again I hate this years free agent class. Really like Montejunas but injury concerns concern me.

Idk things will be much more clear in a week!

[theBigLip]

Whitehops - great post.

A few opinions:
- I think we will draft for BPA. The fact that we need a backup PG and PF will be coincidental to our pick.
- Whether it is a trade or an unsung free agent, I think Bowers/SVG will surprise us and get someone that we are not even thinking about. Lin, Dellovedova, etc will be on other teams short list and will get overpaid. I don't think we're going to try an out bid other teams for them.

All I know is I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Bowers' office the next few weeks

[whitehops]

Whitehops - great post.

A few opinions:
- I think we will draft for BPA. The fact that we need a backup PG and PF will be coincidental to our pick.
- Whether it is a trade or an unsung free agent, I think Bowers/SVG will surprise us and get someone that we are not even thinking about. Lin, Dellovedova, etc will be on other teams short list and will get overpaid. I don't think we're going to try an out bid other teams for them.

All I know is I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Bowers' office the next few weeks

i think we should absolutely draft for BPA but hopefully there are a few players available at 18 that they have ranked in the same tier and take the one that fits our need the best. if they have one player clearly in their own tier then you gotta pick them. personally the only player i really like could be considered BPA and fill a need is demetrius jackson. otherwise i'd like if we grabbed malik beasley, deandre bembry, timothe luwawu or taurean prince. none of those last four guys would have a clear path to minutes though.

and i definitely have that feeling too. i feel like most of the moves they've made in the past two years have been surprises and i can see that continuing.

[Snakebites]

Cap is 94 million, that effects our space slightly, but also everyone else's, so the impact on our offseason projection is minimal.

[whitehops]

updated the graphic with bairstow instead dinwiddie which doesn't really change anything and also the new cap number.

Cap is 94 million, that effects our space slightly, but also everyone else's, so the impact on our offseason projection is minimal.

it should definitely help us sign two depth guys and stay under the cap.

the cap increased 2.2% from the initial $92 million projection so contracts will likely make a similar bump. however, our cap space went up by a higher percentage as we went from having ~$17 million in space to ~$19 million. that's an 11.8% increase in cap space.


the worry is that the contract's market value might have went up more than 2.2% only because teams now have more money to throw around which creates more competition.

[Snakebites]

updated the graphic with bairstow instead dinwiddie which doesn't really change anything and also the new cap number.

Cap is 94 million, that effects our space slightly, but also everyone else's, so the impact on our offseason projection is minimal.

it should definitely help us sign two depth guys and stay under the cap.

the cap increased 2.2% from the initial $92 million projection so contracts will likely make a similar bump. however, our cap space went up by a higher percentage as we went from having ~$17 million in space to ~$19 million. that's an 11.8% increase in cap space.


the worry is that the contract's market value might have went up more than 2.2% only because teams now have more money to throw around which creates more competition.

Yeah, that is the worry I was trying to express. If the cap goes up 2 million more than expected, EVERYONE gets that extra money, meaning there's another 60 million dollars floating around out there. That could drive prices up enough to mostly offset the increase in the money we have to spend.

[whitehops]

Yeah, that is the worry I was trying to express. If the cap goes up 2 million more than expected, EVERYONE gets that extra money, meaning there's another 60 million dollars floating around out there. That could drive prices up enough to mostly offset the increase in the money we have to spend.

it's going to be an interesting offseason, that's for sure.