2016 Draft Thread Part 3 - Poll Update

[lilfishi22]

What is the fascination with Ellenson? I see the role he can play but I also don't see much if any star potential in him.

[letsgosuns]

I do not remember who the Suns were rumored to to take in 2014 but I do not believe it was Warren and they took him. In 2015, I had no idea who they would pick and they took Booker. That is how McDonough works. Every move he makes comes out of nowhere and I expect no less come draft night.

Both Warren and Booker were mocked to us by nearly every publication leading up to the '14 and '15 drafts. It's part of the reason people say that McDonough isn't really that good of a drafter because he just selected the player mock drafts suggested.

Really? I thought in 2014 the Suns were expected to take Gary Harris or Rodney Hood or even trade up for Nik Stauskas. Maybe I am wrong.

[AtheJ415]

If Bender is there we have to take him.

[bwgood77]

I do not remember who the Suns were rumored to to take in 2014 but I do not believe it was Warren and they took him. In 2015, I had no idea who they would pick and they took Booker. That is how McDonough works. Every move he makes comes out of nowhere and I expect no less come draft night.

Both Warren and Booker were mocked to us by nearly every publication leading up to the '14 and '15 drafts. It's part of the reason people say that McDonough isn't really that good of a drafter because he just selected the player mock drafts suggested.

Really? I thought in 2014 the Suns were expected to take Gary Harris or Rodney Hood or even trade up for Nik Stauskas. Maybe I am wrong.

Well, mocks are slated in a certain way based on projected pick based on player rankings for the most part. There were many rumors he was high on Kaminsky who went earlier and many thought he loved Stauskas, and Hood worked out for us at least twice. I know Booker was slated in some early mocks at least, because I was reviewing last year's thread and Kerrsed posted a mock result earlier in the process that had us with Booker. It was funny looking at the responses to that mock posting, as people said "I imagine if that happens we will trade one of Knight or Bledsoe" but now we have all three and some want another person at those positions.

[bwgood77]

What is the fascination with Ellenson? I see the role he can play but I also don't see much if any star potential in him.

I don't see star potential but there was an earlier post with a very good analysis and breakdown of bigs measuring out with his numbers, and only 25 made the list of prospects in quite a few years, maybe ever (can't remember) but he placed, in this analysis, between Love and Griffin, near the top, and was compared to them in having great offense and rebounding and passing instincts but lacked defense. I've been looking for that post...gone at least back to like page 40 or more in this thread...it was a very good breakdown and talked about that he could even be more valuable based on size that he could play center. It did mention he doesn't have the quite the skills that Love did at the time, or the athleticism Blake did, but could be more valuable in other ways, so if Len didn't pan out could work there with potential stretch skills, or perhaps be a slightly lesser version of Love, but better in ways due to size, shot blocking ability, etc.

Then he also ran our court very well, not far behind Jaylen Brown in the final 3 minute floor run back and forth, I think finishing with 26 lengths as opposed to Brown's 27. He has a versatile offensive game, and as much as people talk about Murray being an elite freshman, a PF/C as a freshman who averaged 17/10 and projects to probably end up being a stretch guy who can also block shots with a good mid range game, looks good. I think he has probably a lesser chance of being a star but a better chance of being solid with a much higher floor than most every other PF after Bender, and probably a higher floor than even him. He is more of the "get the big you know has a better chance of definitely being able to contribute not only immediately, but not being a total bust either".

[bwgood77]

Run roh
Multiple workouts usually mean something

I take it you are not a fan? I'd b fine with Ellenson, and not sure why he's so polarizing as a prospect.

6'11.5" , 7' 2.25" Wingspan , 242 lbs , 9' Reach -- He's an excellent Rebounder, good scorer, has some range decent handles, fairly athletic, and my favorite word this week, a great facilitator.

And that guy Kaiser Lindeman seems to like him, as well--the guy from 'deepishthoughts' that's been quoted here some recently.

I don't get it either. Especially I don't understand people who don't want Ellenson at #13 but would love to trade #4+ for Okafor. When you look closely they are actually similar in many ways: great size, good offense, questionable defense.

Size:
Okafor 6'11", 272 lb, 7'5'"wingspan, 9'3" reach
Ellenson 6'11", 240 lb, 7'2" wingspan, 9'1" reach

Birthday:
Okafor 12/15/1995
Ellenson 1/13/1997

College per game stats:
Okafor 17.3 pts, 8.5 reb, 1.3 ast, 0.8 stl, 1.4 blk, 2.5 tov, 2.1 PF, 11.1 2PA, 0.0 3PA, 5.1 FTA
Ellenson 17.0 pts, 9.7 reb, 1,8 ast, 0.8 stl, 1.5 blk, 2.4 tov, 2.5 PF, 10.0 2PA, 3.2 3PA, 5.8 FTA

Obviously the biggest difference is their shooting as Okafor is a beast inside (61.9% of FGA at rim) while Ellenson shoots much more jumpers (74.0% of FGA were 2pt and 3pt jumpers) and projects as a good 3-point shooter in the future.

Okafor .664 FG%, - 3P%, .510 FT%,
Ellenson .446 FG%, .288 3P%, .749 FT%

Ellenson is a guy with great size, who's very comfortable with the ball in his hands (which is very rare for a freshman bigman) and was very productive in college. I don't see how is that a bad option at #13, especially in this draft.

Another post regarding Ellenson.

[bwgood77]

What is the fascination with Ellenson? I see the role he can play but I also don't see much if any star potential in him.

OK, I finally found the write-up on Ellenson, but other than reading this, you should look at the chart in the article...

Tier 5 (Players Who Will Possibly Have Massive Trade Value)

6. Henry Ellenson

A note on Ellenson: Henry Ellenson’s measurement matters. The first thing is that it puts Center on the table. 7’0″ with a 7’2″ wingspan is decent size for an NBA Center. He definitely has the athleticism to play the position. I think he probably has the athleticism to play defense at Power Forward if he commits to it, though his semi-delusional combine answer about how he doesn’t care where he plays because he’s a mismatch at any position, tells a lot.

It’s true, Ellenson is a mismatch at any positions. But it goes both ways. If he doesn’t greatly improve his effort and attention to detail on the defensive side of the ball, he’ll be a mismatch there too, and it won’t be in a positive way. Which is to say, any supremely positive projection of Ellenson needs some wishful thinking and should rely heavily on the interview process.

Still, Ellenson is pretty unique as an offensive and rebounding prospect goes. The kind of guy, were he to play a sophomore year in college, who would probably win the Naismith Award or come close.

henry ellenson re-rank

Here’s the Top 22 players in the Sports-Reference database who averaged 9 rebounds per game as Freshman, .7 steals or more, .8 blocks or more, and 14 points per game, sorted by assists.

A) The first thing we notice is that Ben Simmons is unique.

B) The second thing we notice is that this is a good list to be on. These are mostly NBA guys, from first class stars like Anthony Davis to bench guys like Lorenzen Wright. What’s more hardly any of them have the passing skills that Ellenson has displayed at a young age. (If Ellenson has deficiencies passing, compare him to most young Bigs. Bigs generally are not good at seeing the floor. Look for instance at Millsap. He’s become quite a good passer. Young players tend to improve, especially if they start out with some element of skill.)

C) The third is the two players grouped with Ellenson. Blake Griffin and Kevin Love. Griffin obviously the best athlete. Love obviously the most skilled. Ellenson somewhere in between.

I find this to be an interesting group. Ellenson wasn’t quite as good as either player as a Freshman, mainly because he shot a lot of Threes without making them, but that’s also a place I’d bet that Ellenson will improve. He’s very comfortable on the perimeter and that’s rare for a Big Man.

The reason I find the grouping appropriate is because these are all B&O Railroad guys. Boards and Offense and nothing else. They were that way in college as Freshman and they continued to be so as Pro players. The thing that separates Ellenson from Love and Griffin though is his body. Love was 6’9″ with a 6’11” wingspan. Blake Griffin was 6’10” with a 6’11” wingspan. Ellenson however is nearly 7’0″ tall with a 7’2″ wingspan.

That legitimately puts Center on the table. It also puts the potential for more defense on the table. It would make Ellenson a huge Power Forward, a position he still has the movement skills to play if he he decides to put the work in to improving. Ellenson would be a potential match-up nightmare at either Big position, but it’s definitely worse for Teams if he’s a Center than a PF. (Yes, I’d be quite high on Poeltl too if he had some legit perimeter skills.)

D) The other name I like on the list is Troy Murphy. I could easily see Ellenson having that kind of career or slightly better. As he’s already more comfortable on the perimeter, and he might not take as long to get good. The potential to function as a passer in the offense is what separates Ellenson from a guy like Kris Humphries, though that type of career is also on the table.

E) The thing I’d like to talk about most is the highly possible situation that Henry Ellenson is successful offensively and on the boards, but that he doesn’t play plus on-ball and help defense. Size does not remotely guarantee defensive success. However, that doesn’t mean that the player will not still be very valuable, if not for the team, in a trade.

What we’ve seen with these types of players in Kevin Love, in the rumors about Blake Griffin, heck, even in the Rajon Rondo deal, is that these types of players, the kind that are hugely successful at putting up numbers on the offensive side of the ball, still carry loads of trade value. We’re talking about two first round picks and significant young player with potential in both the cases of Love and Rondo.

Ellenson is the one player in the draft who could turn out reasonably well and yet still have have absolutely massive trade value. If there was no possibility of a trade, I’d probably rather have Onuaku on my team, unless Ellenson interviewed really well and convinced me he put more effort in on the defensive end. But this isn’t like picking Okafor over Porzingis because Okafor is likely to carry more future trade value. It’s more like picking Okafor over a guy like Stanley Johnson. (Who knows who will end up better in that pairing? That’s to the side of the argument I’m making. And yes, it’s still also possible Okafor ends up better than Porzingis, when everything is said and done. Just wouldn’t be what one would predict.) Which is to say, I don’t think you are passing up a possible Top Order Star in this scenario. You are passing up a potentially very good player. There’s a difference.

http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-post-combine-top-13/

[jredsaz]

I was day dreaming about four years from now and a Pacific Division rivalry between a Russell and Ingram led Lakers team against a Booker and Bender/Murray/Dunn/Chriss led Suns squad.

Do any of those guys even fit in that scenario?

Honestly, Bender is the guy, who if he works out, makes me the most excited. His two way versatility and basketball IQ would fit great with Booker. The pairing might have the potential to build a team oriented basketball culture on and off the court.

[8on]

Henry Ellenson is one of these guys where you're not sure why you don't like him, but that doesn't mean you're going to stop. I think people don't like him because he's not high enough on draft boards, which has always been an insufficient reason.

Kevin Love was supposed to be "not athletic" enough. this was in a time before power forwards made 190 3's in a season.

I think we should screw the mock drafts and take Ellenson. I was the Hield train a day ago, but I've since switched back after watching some more Henry. Besides Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley, I have never seen a freshman score this easily. If we don't take him, we're going to be kicking ourselves forever. As much as I drool over Buddy, if we're signing Bogdan, I don't think we can make it work minutes-wise. Ellenson is totally worth the 4th pick.

[8on]

if he's being compared to Blake Griffin and Kevin Love.....it stands to reason that there is at least 30% chance that he will be a star, i.e. one of the 3 best players in any draft.

[lilfishi22]

if he's being compared to Blake Griffin and Kevin Love.....it stands to reason that there is at least 30% chance that he will be a star, i.e. one of the 3 best players in any draft.

Really? I didn't know that's how the maths worked

[Mulhollanddrive]

I hope we get a PF just so we can stop talking about every PF that ever exists.

[letsgosuns]

I just watched some highlights of Ellenson. Idk how anyone can say he is anything like Griffin. I do not think Ellenson dunked the ball once in the entire highlight packaged I watched. That is Griffin's number one signature. Amazing dunks and crazy athletic. He is arguably the most athletic power forward in basketball and a scoring machine when he is healthy. There was a play I saw where Ellenson was basically by himself and had a full head of steam going towards the basket and he still did not dunk it. Just did a layup instead. I would not consider him with the fourth pick. I like when power forwards are extremely aggressive and look to tear the rim down every chance they get. Classic stretch fours like Rasheed Wallace and Robert Horry would dunk with ferocity when they could. Channing Frye even tries big dunks now and then.

[8on]

if he's being compared to Blake Griffin and Kevin Love.....it stands to reason that there is at least 30% chance that he will be a star, i.e. one of the 3 best players in any draft.

Really? I didn't know that's how the maths worked

yeah, no, you're right. but one guy was comparing Ellenson to Griffin and Love....quick, somebody get their hall of fame ballot out.


in addition......any Futurama fans in the house?

[letsgosuns]

The Suns have not had an athletic, scoring power forward since Amare. Warrick would have a big dunk once a game or so and that was it. He was not a good player. Markieff was a decent/average NBA athlete but did not draw fouls inside that much and often times looked soft and slow. So a big time power forward athlete is what the team desperately needs.

When I watch Chriss highlights, he reminds a lot of what Gerald Green might be if he was a power forward. He has that kind of athleticism. Whether that translates into a complete all around game, Idk. That fact that he can shoot threes though in addition to his athleticism makes him very intriguing. Bender looks like he is a decent/good athlete but has one thing you cannot teach and that is height. I remember Eddie Johnson used to say that about Kevin Garnett. You cannot teach height. You have it or you do not.

I think either one would be a good pick at number four. Just depends on who is available when the Suns pick. If they both are available, I trust McDonough to make the right choice.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Have any of Chriss, Bender, Hield, Murray, Brown, Dunn done a group workout for us?

McDonough was pretty scathing about players not choosing to compete, could lead to him being more willing to trade pick 4.

[Damkac]

If Bender is gone I want Murray, but thinking about how low Bledsoe's and Knight's values is seen around the league I'm starting to think drafting Chriss would be better. Even if he may be a bit worse prospect this at least wouldn't result in another 3-PG-Wanting-Starter-Role drama. This would force Suns to trade Bledsoe or Knight and I don't think they would get fair value.

But how would it suck if Murray turns out to be next Lillard and Suns would pass on him because of bad fit.

[Qwigglez]

Here's an interesting thought, what if the Celtics draft Bender? Do we select Chriss? What happens if the Suns draft Dunn because we have a pre-draft trade in the works for Okafor from the Sixers (Dunn for Okafor) and then Sixers back out of the trade. I think that would be a nightmare scenario because we'd have our team composed of mostly guards and obviously we'd have to trade Bledsoe & Knight IMO.
Just wondering what everyone's nightmare scenario would be come draft day.

And another interesting thought, what if we do make that trade and it's just Okafor for #4 and Miami 2019 1st. Do we keep Knight? I think we should and if all guys are healthy next season we could have a very exciting season.
Bledsoe/Booker/Warren/Okafor/Len
Archie/Knight/Tucker/???/Chandler +#13

That is a lot of offense IMO, and actually pretty balanced. We'd have five guys capable of putting up 20 points on any given night. Booker/Warren would need to work on their defense, but I'm assuming they will get better after another year of experience.

[Saberestar]

If Bender is gone I want Murray, but thinking about how low Bledsoe's and Knight's values is seen around the league I'm starting to think drafting Chriss would be better. Even if he may be a bit worse prospect this at least wouldn't result in another 3-PG-Wanting-Starter-Role drama. This would force Suns to trade Bledsoe or Knight and I don't think they would get fair value.

But how would it suck if Murray turns out to be next Lillard and Suns would pass on him because of bad fit.

This.

We need a PF....and what? We have #13, FAs and trades to adquire a good PF or a big SF. Draft BPA, and Chriss is not.

Picking a player like Chriss, who doesn't have a clue about playing team basketball and is all "potential", over a prospect like Murray, who has everything you want in a player for today's NBA, would be a big mistake IMO.

With our current roster probably some people would choose Meyers Leonard over Lillard because he is tall, shoots threes and plays PF.

[thamadkant]

Bender busting out could set back whomever picks him up a few years in the rebuild schedule.

Just too many improvements in his game and body to go right for him to be a franchise cornerstone.

His floor is that off someone like Kyle Anderson who can occasionally hit an open 3pt shot.
His ceiling is a better shooting and dribbling Joakim Noah (rebounder, passer, facilitator, defender, hustle).

For a top 5 pick, it will either make the GM look like a genius... or a fool.