Ranking Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and top prospects in 2016 NBA draft by statistical projections
by Kevin Pelton on (original:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16158972/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-top-prospects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projections)
A familiar name tops my statistics-based projections for the 2016 NBA Draft, but a surprising player is not far behind.
I first unveiled my projections, which factor in a player's translated college or international performance, his age and his rank on Chad Ford's big board, for collegians during the NCAA tournament.
(Read more on the process and see past projections here.)
Now, it's time to update those rankings to include the final list of international prospects after Monday's deadline to withdraw from the draft.
Remarkably, just two players are in both Ford's top 10 and the top 10 of my statistical projections, the group that tends to yield All-Stars more consistently. Typically, there are about five such players per season. That lack of agreement between performance and scouting might be one reason 2016 is considered a weak draft.
Although this draft is relatively light on star college talent, the international crop looks strong. Four of the top-10 prospects by my projections played overseas, and three more international players rank in the top 30, not including the Australian-born prospect who ranks No. 1.
1. Ben Simmons
LSU
Forward
Big Board: No. 1
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.6 WARP
Don't be alarmed by Simmons' ranking seventh in the stats-only WARP projections, which consider a player's projected NBA performance and age. One factor in the projections regresses translated college performance to the average for the player's position. For most players, this doesn't matter much, but it does become a problem for a unique, versatile talent such as Simmons, who passes like a point guard and rebounds like a big man.
Absent the regression factor, Simmons would rank third strictly by the numbers, and including his No. 1 spot in Ford's ranking puts him appropriately at the top of this list.
2. Dragan Bender
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Power forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.4 WARP
As previewed in my discussion of Bender's potential with Ford, the Croatian forward by way of Israeli power Maccabi Tel Aviv projects as the second-best prospect in the draft, ahead of consensus top-two pick Brandon Ingram.
Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets).
3. Brandon Ingram
Duke
Small forward
Big Board: No. 2
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
Although Ingram's translated performance at Duke should hardly be considered a red flag, it does not suggest the kind of stardom forecast by scouts. Aside from a strong block rate, the value of Ingram's length didn't show up in the box score in his college freshman season.
Of course, Ingram isn't getting credit for his solid individual defense -- one of the factors that explains why adding the scouting perspectives improves projections, compared to using stats alone.
4. Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Guard
Big Board: No. 3
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Although his performance at Kentucky doesn't suggest that Murray is a point guard (his projected assist rate is only average for an NBA-bound shooting guard), he projects well offensively. His freshman performance was broadly similar to that of C.J. McCollum at Lehigh after accounting for schedule strength, but Murray created more shots and shot more 3s than McCollum.
The concern is defense; Murray barely dented the box score with steals or blocks.
5. Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Center
Big Board: No. 12
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
My projections and those unveiled by the ESPN Analytics department last week agree on Poeltl, who joins Simmons and Ingram in the top five in both models.
The only question is whether a traditional center such as Poeltl remains as valuable in a changing NBA. The limited number of teams who need such a player is one reason Poeltl ranks lower on Ford's big board.
6. Zhou Qi (if age 20)
Xinjiang Guanghui
Power forward
Big Board: No. 48
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Forget about Bender, who has been scouted extensively by the NBA. Qi is the real "international man of mystery" in the 2016 draft. He dominated weak competition in the Chinese CBA the past two seasons, but questions persist about how his weak frame will hold up against NBA opposition.
Although Qi wasn't quite as good this season as he was in 2014-15 -- when he blocked better than one in 10 opponent 2-point attempts while shooting nearly 70 percent from the field -- based on his listed age (20), he tops all players in my statistical projections. If instead Qi is projected at age 23, based on scouts' suspicions about his age, he drops to 16th in projected WARP and 27th in the consensus projections.
7. Kris Dunn
Providence
Point guard
Big Board: No. 4
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Because my model considers only the past three seasons, Dunn's relatively weak freshman campaign doesn't work against him. That season is a bit of a concern, though Dunn's terrific defensive stats (his projected steal rate ranks second among prospects in Ford's top 100) should translate reliably to the NBA.
8. Juan Hernangomez
Estudiantes
Power forward
Big Board: No. 26
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
The younger brother of 2015 Knicks second-round pick Willy Hernangomez, Juan is a stretch-4 prospect who developed into a starter in the Spanish ACB this season at age 20.
More than 40 percent of Hernangomez's attempts came from beyond the arc, and he made them at a healthy 35.8 percent clip. For a perimeter-oriented big man, Hernangomez is also a strong defensive rebounder.
9. Ante Zizic
KK Cibona
Center
Big Board: No. 21
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The Adriatic League has produced solid center talent lately, in Nuggets teammates Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic, and Zizic looks like the next in the line.
He shot better than 60 percent from the field in Adriatic play this season while averaging 18.2 points and 11.0 rebounds per 36 minutes.
10. Marquese Chriss
Washington
Power forward
Big Board: No. 5
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
An unheralded prospect entering his lone season as a Husky, Chriss suddenly finds himself fifth on Ford's big board and even higher in mock drafts. That might be too much, too soon.
While Chriss is an explosive athlete who showed college 3-point range (shooting an even 35 percent), his defensive rebounding is a major concern. He was a below average defensive rebounder at UW -- not for a big man but for a player at any position. Whatever team drafts Chriss will have to hope that was a product of the Huskies' tendency to switch Chriss onto guards or his late-developing frame.
But I know they are older, but still a bird in the hand....So so tough.
