2016 Draft Thread Part 4

[TeamTragic]

Bottomline, to argue against Hield is ludicrous (Speed). I am not going back an forth about Buddy. He is a baller, period!

...for only 1 out of 4 seasons...he was very 'average' his Sophomore/Junior seasons, and 'below average' his Freshman season.

So go ahead and 'shut-down' any further discussion on Hield, but he's not 'Superman' and 'choked' pretty hard on the biggest stage of his career against Villanova in the Final Four. He has 'holes' in his game, just like a lot of other prospects. His defense is 'meh' his PPR and A/TO declined EVERY YEAR--his worst overall season as a Freshman was his BEST season for those metrics. His A/TO, from Freshman to Senior went: 1.14, 1.03, .99, .66 ; his PPR went -1.62, -1.80, -2.10, -4.85.

And it was noted yesterday, I think by Ford, that history is not on Hield's side for success in the NBA for those that were average players, then suddenly had one outlier season. When your TS% and eFG% go from .55 and .51 respectively, in his Junior Season, to .67 and .62 as a Senior--that is an outlier, and not one I personally am taking stock in, in being an accurate reflection of how he'll perform in the NBA.

So I'm not sure why you feel that Hield is a 'can't miss prospect' and will be the BPA at 4 when we pick, but it's not a 'slam-dunk' case for Hield.

Hield was also a BEAST as a HS Senior. Not great his first three years in HS, but by the time he is one of the oldest and most experienced guys on the floor he can DOMINATE! I expect based on this trend, that by the time he is an elder statesman in the league, if he lasts, he will feast on the youngens coming in! Can't wait! Dude's a baller.

We are not picking Hield unless Bender/Chriss are gone. Right now I feel that Chriss/Bender will be on the board and I have been hearing that Bender is dropping in this draft.

I guess I'm not surprised since he is a project and most teams don't want to take that risk. However if Chriss goes higher that might make this franchise think twice about Bender and possibly go all in for Butler/etc.

[jcsunsfan]

I see no reason why both Sarver ("win now goddamnit") and McDonough ("rebuild properly") can' "have their cake and eat it to" if we have some reasonable good luck.

After the draft our youngsters:
-Archie
-Booker
-#4
-#13
-#28
-TJ
-Len
-BB

Vets:
-Bledsoe
-Knight
-Tucker
-Chandedler
-Free Agent 1
-Free Agent 2

I absolutely think that with the right free agent signings and/or a trade, we can put a product on the floor that can compete for the 6th-8th seed AND develop our young players.

Yes.

[TeamTragic]

I see no reason why both Sarver ("win now goddamnit") and McDonough ("rebuild properly") can' "have their cake and eat it to" if we have some reasonable good luck.

After the draft our youngsters:
-Archie
-Booker
-#4
-#13
-#28
-TJ
-Len
-BB

Vets:
-Bledsoe
-Knight
-Tucker
-Chandedler
-Free Agent 1
-Free Agent 2

I absolutely think that with the right free agent signings and/or a trade, we can put a product on the floor that can compete for the 6th-8th seed AND develop our young players.

Yes.

Maybe. Huge maybe. We need to either commit or roll the dice.

[jcsunsfan]

I see no reason why both Sarver ("win now goddamnit") and McDonough ("rebuild properly") can' "have their cake and eat it to" if we have some reasonable good luck.

After the draft our youngsters:
-Archie
-Booker
-#4
-#13
-#28
-TJ
-Len
-BB

Vets:
-Bledsoe
-Knight
-Tucker
-Chandedler
-Free Agent 1
-Free Agent 2

I absolutely think that with the right free agent signings and/or a trade, we can put a product on the floor that can compete for the 6th-8th seed AND develop our young players.

Yes.

Maybe. Huge maybe. We need to either commit or roll the dice.

You just keep building. It will eventually click. It isn't an all or nothing thing.

[darealjuice]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/744005405710290944[/tweet]

Not sure if this was posted yesterday, but interesting take from a Daryl Morey on the draft this year. I'd say I agree with him that this draft is very deep with players that can contribute in the NBA, especially considering the talent still on the board at #28 in the RealGM Mock Draft.

[bwgood77]

We are not picking Hield unless Bender/Chriss are gone.

Well if those two guys are gone when we pick that would mean either Simmons or Ingram slipped and we sure as hell wouldn't take Hield over one of them two unless Cactus Jack and JMac had McD hostage.

Right now I feel that Chriss/Bender will be on the board and I have been hearing that Bender is dropping in this draft.

I guess I'm not surprised since he is a project and most teams don't want to take that risk. However if Chriss goes higher that might make this franchise think twice about Bender and possibly go all in for Butler/etc.

Nothing should be set in stone in regards to Bender until at least after our workout with him today. I mean Gambo saying he doesn't think we will take Bender yesterday but the guy hadn't even come in yet. I assume he will at least get through the workout before determining the board.

[Kerrsed]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/743338183773945856[/tweet]

[bwgood77]

crazy right? My gut says 'no' on Bender. I'm thinking trade down w Denver for 7/19 (if Nugs r locked in on one of Murray or Hield.)

Phoenix trading down or Minnesota trading down?

Minny. I like the Criss pick for u guys.

That would probably be a good idea unless you are sold one of them. I thought Buddy would be perfect for you guys as a sixth man or possibly Murray as sixth man, but as much as I like Bender, it might be hard to pass him up.

But if I was a TWolves fan, where your team is probably ready for a run to the playoffs now, Buddy might be tough to pass up. But Dunn could be nice too since Rubio can be injury prone.

I guess the point is, any and all four of them you could argue for, and if you traded down with Denver than you could still have two of them to pick from.

As far as Chriss for us, that scares me. I loved the thought of him at 13 a while back. Taking him at 4 seems like an enormous risk. But at least it's a swing for a home run...like a swing by the guy who led the league in strike outs and home runs. I feel like Hield or Murray are more like singles, Dunn is probably a double. Bender is the wildcard. But I feel like he definitely is at least a single, and possibly an in the park home run.

[Cactus Jack]

We are not picking Hield unless Bender/Chriss are gone.

Well if those two guys are gone when we pick that would mean either Simmons or Ingram slipped and we sure as hell wouldn't take Hield over one of them two unless Cactus Jack and JMac had McD hostage.

[bwgood77]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/744005405710290944[/tweet]

Not sure if this was posted yesterday, but interesting take from a Daryl Morey on the draft this year. I'd say I agree with him that this draft is very deep with players that can contribute in the NBA, especially considering the talent still on the board at #28 in the RealGM Mock Draft.

I saw that earlier, and also saw the one Kerrsed just posted...I can't remember if it was hoopshype or what, but we all must be reading the same stuff.

Yes, I think this draft is super deep. Very weak lottery. It's almost as if there is never a really big dropoff after 2....from 3 on just a steady slope....or almost a total crap shoot. I wouldn't be surprised at all if someone picked in the teens or twenties ended up as the second best player, or if like 5 of the top 10 players from this draft were taken outside of the lottery.

[bwgood77]

Yes.

Maybe. Huge maybe. We need to either commit or roll the dice.

You just keep building. It will eventually click. It isn't an all or nothing thing.

I guess you just never know when it will all come together. A couple of years ago it looked kind of bleak in Minnesota. You had a team that suffered a ton of very close losses and a fringe playoff team but it looked like Love wanted out and Rubio always seemed to be injured, so the team that was the 10th seed looked to be about ready to fade. Then suddenly they draft LaVine (who doesn't look happy), trade for Wiggins, luckily win the lottery and get Towns, Dieng starts to really ball with them, when they all play with Rubio they already outscore opponents.

That all came together extremely quickly. I guess one could argue it didn't, since they still had the 5th worst record, but adding the 5th pick and Thibs and it looks undeniable that this team is going to be very good in the future, and probably sooner than a lot of people think.

[NavLDO]

Much rather have Bender if not Hield or Murray........Just say no to drugs, ugly women and Chriss!

I prefer Ellenson over Chriss. Hopefully, Boston pulls the trigger on Marquese before we do.

Ellenson will be there at 13.

I honestly doubt that--I'd give it a 1 in 5 chance odds he's still on the board. He's a big, with a nice stroke. A legit 7', 7'2.25" Wingspan, and 9'1"Reach, with an NBA-ready 242 lb frame who can play PF or C. I honestly think he goes ahead of Skal, Davis, and Sabonis. Skal is still vey raw; Davis doesn't have the range; Sabonis is a PF only--no versatility, IMO. I like him, but think GMs are looking for the Stretch-4-type of PFs, and Ellenson, to me, is a poor man's Love/Frye/[enter any stretch name here]. Not quite the rebounder, and not as good from 3, but a 75% FT shooter.

I would love to grab Ellenson at 13; in fact, I'd rather go Hield/Ellenson than Chriss/Korkmaz; I think Ellenson has a much higher floor than Chriss, but I do still like Chriss over Hield, Dunn, or Murray, but if we go PF/Wing, or vice versa, I'd rather have Ellenson at 13 than Chriss at 4...I'm sure I'm making absolutely no sense right now!!

[JMac1]

Bottomline, to argue against Hield is ludicrous (Speed). I am not going back an forth about Buddy. He is a baller, period!

...for only 1 out of 4 seasons...he was very 'average' his Sophomore/Junior seasons, and 'below average' his Freshman season.

So go ahead and 'shut-down' any further discussion on Hield, but he's not 'Superman' and 'choked' pretty hard on the biggest stage of his career against Villanova in the Final Four. He has 'holes' in his game, just like a lot of other prospects. His defense is 'meh' his PPR and A/TO declined EVERY YEAR--his worst overall season as a Freshman was his BEST season for those metrics. His A/TO, from Freshman to Senior went: 1.14, 1.03, .99, .66 ; his PPR went -1.62, -1.80, -2.10, -4.85.

And it was noted yesterday, I think by Ford, that history is not on Hield's side for success in the NBA for those that were average players, then suddenly had one outlier season. When your TS% and eFG% go from .55 and .51 respectively, in his Junior Season, to .67 and .62 as a Senior--that is an outlier, and not one I personally am taking stock in, in being an accurate reflection of how he'll perform in the NBA.

So I'm not sure why you feel that Hield is a 'can't miss prospect' and will be the BPA at 4 when we pick, but it's not a 'slam-dunk' case for Hield.

I never EVER said he was a can't miss. I want to pick him at four, so that means he is a can't miss? You want to pick someone else and that means what?

He is a baller 1 out of 4 season or whatever. The guy can ball.

[JMac1]

We are not picking Hield unless Bender/Chriss are gone.

Well if those two guys are gone when we pick that would mean either Simmons or Ingram slipped and we sure as hell wouldn't take Hield over one of them two unless Cactus Jack and JMac had McD hostage.

Ingram. Simmons is not the guy I like. Buddy already whoop his butt head-up.

[bwgood77]

I prefer Ellenson over Chriss. Hopefully, Boston pulls the trigger on Marquese before we do.

Ellenson will be there at 13.

I honestly doubt that--I'd give it a 1 in 5 chance odds he's still on the board. He's a big, with a nice stroke. A legit 7', 7'2.25" Wingspan, and 9'1"Reach, with an NBA-ready 242 lb frame who can play PF or C. I honestly think he goes ahead of Skal, Davis, and Sabonis. Skal is still vey raw; Davis doesn't have the range; Sabonis is a PF only--no versatility, IMO. I like him, but think GMs are looking for the Stretch-4-type of PFs, and Ellenson, to me, is a poor man's Love/Frye/[enter any stretch name here]. Not quite the rebounder, and not as good from 3, but a 75% FT shooter.

I would love to grab Ellenson at 13; in fact, I'd rather go Hield/Ellenson than Chriss/Korkmaz; I think Ellenson has a much higher floor than Chriss, but I do still like Chriss over Hield, Dunn, or Murray, but if we go PF/Wing, or vice versa, I'd rather have Ellenson at 13 than Chriss at 4...I'm sure I'm making absolutely no sense right now!!

It makes sense, other than you saying Ellenson is not quite the rebounder after mentioning Frye. Unless you meant Ellenson isn't quite as good as rebounder as Love. But Ellenson was a GREAT rebounder in college. Frye also never shot the 3 in college. And I'd be surprised if he is there at 13 as well. I might take him at 13 if he is though even if we already have taken Chriss.

You leave Bender out. Is he off the board theoretically here or do you not like him?

[OGBAH]

What's the highest we could move up if we packaged 13 and 28?

[NavLDO]

BW, let me say this.

i see Bender's potential. he could be a good fit.

i also see Chriss' potential. honestly, i prefer offensive players to defensive players, and i like Chriss. if he were the pick, i'd be happy.

but Ellenson......how often do you see freshman that can score like this? Mike Beasley, Brook Lopez, sure. neither have Ellenson's size, rebounding ability, or ability to shoot.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUGeYadEoC4[/youtube]


why can't he be the 4th pick? matter of fact, why can't we trade the 4th pick to Denver for 7 and 15 and pick Ellenson? because Chad Ford says we can't? because mock drafts say we can't? HE'S A BEAST!!!!!!


let's do it this way. what are your fears?

with Bender, it's that he can't play defense......and he can't play score efficiently.....and that he doesn't develop into a good rebounder......and that he doesn't learn how to shoot, which would be a redeeming factor even if he misses two of those.

with Chriss, it's defense, fouls, IQ, and maturation speed. that might be an unnecessary fear.

with Ellenson, it's just defense. and if he could shoot his 3's at a slightly higher percentage than 28. his form looks so good that i feel like it's inevitable.



i have more fears with Bender than Chriss, or Ellenson or Hield or J. Murray. he's a bigger risk. the biggest of our pool. would anyone disagree with that?

Totally agree, and not sure why people are down on Ellenson?? We're 'crying' for the next Frye, and while Ellenson didn't shoot 3s well (29%), he shot 75% FT%, which I keep hering is the better indicator of NBA 3 success.

Then there are these traits (from DX):

He's also extremely nimble and mobile, showing impressive fluidity and dexterity for a player his size, even if he isn't incredibly quick or explosive in a traditional sense...At 20 points per-40 minutes, Ellenson ranked among the most prolific freshmen in college basketball this season offensively... Looking at his shooting mechanics, and the fact that he knocked down 75% of his free throw attempts, it's not difficult to envision him becoming an effective floor spacing big man in time, as his streakiness as a shooter seemed to have more to do with shot-selection than any concerns about his natural ability. He was very effective in the mid-range area, hitting 40% of his attempts on the season there (SST), sometimes pulling up off the dribble impressively...What separates Ellenson from most big men is the skill-level he demonstrates with the ball in his hands. He's extremely impressive with his ability to put the ball on the floor, not just when grabbing a defensive rebound and going coast to coast, but also in the half-court, using shot-fakes, advanced ball-handling moves and body control to create his own shot and get to the rim...He's the rare big man who can be utilized effectively as the ball-handler in both pick and roll or isolation situations, as he can drive left and right and mix in some impressive change of speed and direction moves. He knows how to slow down and speed up instinctively with his long strides to beat defenders and make his way to the rim, and utilizes outstanding footwork to spin around opponents and finish with soft touch.

There's more, but you get the idea--has handles, can go either direction, effective changing 'speed', nice stroke, effective scorer, outstanding footwork...etc.

[NavLDO]

Youtube - Ellenson Weaknesses.

Nobody has a bad game when all you see is their points and rebounds.

Phew...thanks for that. Good to know he's the only one with weaknesses...

Shall we list every prospect's "Weaknesses" video??? Because I'm sure whoever 'your guy' is doesn't have any, right??

[JMac1]

All of the players have something I like, all of them. For me I say what is the best these players could be if they became an NBA Allstar? Wht style of play do I envision them displaying? What mold of a player do I see? Who are they playing like?

Dunn=Wade 2.0?
Brown=Kawhi 2.0?
Murray=Roy 2.0?
Buddy=Curry 2.0?
Bender=Dirk 2.0?
Chris=Amare with a 3?


Taking into account today's game, if this was the case, who would you draft 1st?

[JMac1]

What's the highest we could move up if we packaged 13 and 28?

12.5 maybe. Not much.