2016 Draft Thread Part 4

[OGBAH]

What's the highest we could move up if we packaged 13 and 28?

12.5 maybe. Not much.

[Cactus Jack]

I predict Ellenson gets taken in the top 10.

[darealjuice]

What's the highest we could move up if we packaged 13 and 28?

Probably somewhere from 8-10, not really worth it though considering the depth of the draft even at 28. Unless someone in the top 8 drops, pretty much everyone is at a similar talent level past the 9th pick.

[NavLDO]

Chad Ford's new mock has us taking Chriss #4 (Brown is #3, Bender is #7), Ellenson #13 and Luwawu #28.

The board will explode if that happens, but Chriss, Ellenson, then to get Luwawu all the way down at 28??? R U kidding me??? That would be a win in my book, even if we did bypass Bender for Chriss.

I just don't get the 'hate' for Chriss on this board--Shooting??-Check. Athleticism?? Check. Blocking??-Check. Starting PF??-Check.

I can see why fans are enthralled with Hield, and if we take him, then I'm confident there's a plan to get him and Booker minutes. But to act like Hield is a 'can't miss' SG, yet Chriss is most assuredly a failure and epic reach at 4?? That, I do not get. 69% FT and 35% 3PT for a Freshman PF is impressive; the kid has upside. And to some how 'diminish' his 2nd chance opportunities he gives his team with his OReb, because he didn't do as well with DReb? That, I also, do not get. The kid knows how to Rebound; he just needs some coaching up on boxing out and awareness.

[JMac1]

Chad Ford's new mock has us taking Chriss #4 (Brown is #3, Bender is #7), Ellenson #13 and Luwawu #28.

The board will explode if that happens, but Chriss, Ellensn, then to get Luwawu all the way down at 28??? R U kidding me??? That would be a win in my book, even if we did bypass Bender for Chriss.

I just don't get the 'hate' for Chriss on this board--Shooting??-Check. Athleticism?? Check. Blocking??-Check. Starting PF??-Check.

I can see why fans are enthralled with Hield, and if we take him, then I'm confident there's a plan to get him and Booker minutes. But to act like Hield is a 'can't miss' SG, yet Chriss is most assuredly a failure and epic reach at 4?? That, I do not get. 69% FT nd 35% 3PT for a Freshman PF is impressive; the kid has upside. And to some how 'diminish' his 2nd chance opportunities he gives his team with his OReb, because he didn't do as well with DReb? That, I also, do not get. The kid knows how to Rebound; he just needs some coaching up on boxing out and awareness.

I would be okay with that because of Ellenson, but Chriss before Bender If we draft Chriss I will tell myself Chriss is skinny shoulder Amare with a 3pt shot.

[rsavaj]

Great post on Bright Side about Chad Ford's "tier" system, which is basically his ranking of prospects after surveying GMs around the league to get a decent average of their big boards.

On a more neutral note, the #4 or #5 pick doesn't usually get you a potential All-Star in the eyes of scouts prior to the draft. In 2012, 2014 and 2015, you had a chance at an All-Star with the 4th selection, but in 2011, 2013 and now 2016 there just isn't enough high end talent available.

Even within those vaunted 2012, 2014 and 2015 drafts, the scouts were probably over-ranking half of the Tier 2s. Truly, each draft only produces a small handful of All-Stars and some of those were drafted outside the Top 10.

So you can be disappointed but not too disappointed that there's no sure-fire All-Star waiting for the Suns at #4 overall.

The Tier System in 2016 projects, no shocker here, that only Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram to reach All-Star status, while the next five players will likely top out at starters who aren't going to make any All-Star games.

Tier 3 consists of Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss, Jaylen Brown, Kris Dunn and Jamal Murray.

There's a few interesting developments from this year's tiering system:

Buddy Hield is NOT among the top 3 tiers according to a consensus of scouts, instead lumped with other mid-to-late lottery picks who will be sometime starters but more likely role players (along the lines of Booker, Warren, Ennis, Morris with the Suns).

Marquese Chriss is definitely a Tier 3 and considered one of the Top 7 talents in the draft by a consensus of scouts, something no one really considered until the last few weeks

In fact, among the Tier 3s, Chriss even got the most votes for Tier 2 (meaning he has All-Star potential). Ford says that three of the Tier 3s got some Tier 2 mention, but not enough to raise them up and that Chriss was mentioned "especially" in that light.

Also among the Tier 3s, Bender and Brown got Tier 4 mentions meaning there's more question marks on them than the others at this Tier. This is no surprise, with regard to Bender. He likely got as many Tier 2 mentions as Tier 4 mentions. We just don't have enough film on him.

The Suns should get a good player at #13 overall who will compare favorably to the talent they've always taken at 13 or 14: just like Morris, Marshall, Warren, Ennis and Booker, their #13 pick this year should be no worse than the Tier 4 group. Tier 4s are potential starters but more likely high level role players.

Joining Hield in Tier 4 are Henry Ellenson, Furkan Korkmaz, Skal Labissiere, Jakob Poeltl, Domantas Sabonis, and Dejounte Murray
Dejounte Murray, who had a solo workout with the Suns last week, is a surprise inclusion in the Tier 4 group. Previously ranked on a first round bubble level by sites like DX (ie. Tier 6), Murray is now rising up the boards of scouts will likely be gone by late lottery or late teens next week.

Wouldn't it be funny if the Suns end up with Chriss and D. Murray, two starters from a disappointing Washington Huskies team this past season?

Ranked surprisingly low, to some of us, might be Deyonta Davis (ranked in Tier 5 as role player potential, but not starter) who has routinely been mocked in the lottery.

Of the Tier 5 and Tier 6s, you can bet that at least one of them will turn out to be a better player than most anyone in this draft. The trick is figuring out which one.

Final Word

The Suns got lucky with Devin Booker last year. He was underrated coming out of college, and has the potential to be the best Suns draft pick since Amare Stoudemire as long as he doesn't regress.

Don't expect this year's picks, including the 4th overall, to exceed Booker's potential. Just be happy to a guy or two who could someday start next to him.

http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2016/6/18/11968454/suns-gm-ryan-mcdonough-dines-with-top-tier-picks-draft-tiers-espn

Seems like Ford's tiers actually do a good job of predicting the general order of the draft.

[NavLDO]

Apparently Chriss grew an inch since last year. I found this offseason picture of him. Whats with that weird necklace?

Dude, you are too funny. Chriss does have quite the 'neck' on him...kinda like a "Merton Hanks" neck, for all you NFL fans from the 90s/00s.

[NavLDO]

Don't evaluate players based on YouTube highlights please, try to watch whole games instead, you'll get much better picture about someone's game that way.

The problem is two-fold: 1) who has the time to watch every prospects' games, and 2) players have off-games, and they have on-games, so you'd need to watch a large sample.

Most of us can only watch the "Strengths" and "Weaknesses" videos, which to me, is about the best we can do.

I'm not knocking what you are saying; I agree. But it's the ability to actually do this that is the problem.

[Damkac]

I did a for fun mock draft on my personal website if you guys want to check it out: http://thedoublescreen.com/words/2016-mock-draft-odyssey -- it is GIF heavy and word heavy it you want some reading content.

Had fun with your picks since you had a lot. Anywhere after 2 is a mystery, so it makes this draft pretty fun.

Well done. I'd be happy with that outcome.

Agree, I would love that for Suns
Furkan's GIF

I trust McD when it comes to draft. If he will choose Chriss before Bender then I will assume he knows more than us.

[NavLDO]

If Chriss is the pick I think it is a sign that we are going into full rebuild mode over rearm mode (what we have been doing the last couple years). I think we will see Chandler, Knight, Tucker and maybe even Bledsoe gone from the team before the start of next year.

So, if you are McD, and you take Chriss, very well knowing he's a project, and he does 'trade off' some Vets like Tucker, Knight, or Bledsoe, does he have full support and backing from Sarver? Does Watson get a 'reprieve' this year from McD and Sarver knowing our team is going to be young, inexperienced, and possibly REALLY bad? Or does Sarver fire the lot of them?

If I'm McD, and I've sat down with Sarver and explained "my" plan for rebuilding the Suns into a potential contender in 2-3 years, and Sarver reluctantly goes along with it, then yes, I could see him picking Chriss.

If McD has NOT been given those assurances, then I'm taking the most pro-ready prospect at 4 and 13, so maybe Dunn/Hield and Sabonis/Prince/Valentine, and getting them in early and often.

So basically, what I'm saying, is if McD is going full rebuild, like you suggest (which I agree with), and he's given maybe a 3 year 'window' from Sarver to build the team properly, I think out Class looks something like:

Chriss/Bender @ 4 ; Skal/Korkmaz/Diallo @ 13 ; Juancho Hernangomez/Zhou Qi/Dejounte Murray @ 28 ; and Thon Maker/Petr Cornelie @ 34.

If not, and Sarver says, "I want to win now; you have this season to turn us into a playoff team." Then I think our class looks like (assuming we keep our picks, which I would doubt we do if McD's given that ultimatum) this:

Dunn/Hield @ 4 ; Valentine/Prince/D. Jackson @ 13 ; Bembry/Johnson @ 28 ; and Brogdon/Carter Jr./LeVert @ 34.

But I am 100% in agreement that what we do with or 4th pick will be very telling into what direction this team is headed next season.

I think no matter who he picks, Sarver will want them to try and be competitive this season. Now if they trade Bledsoe THEN I might start thinking Sarver is really embracing a rebuild.

Good point. I don't think Sarver will ever NOT want to be competetive...it's more about how much patience he'll have with the 'rebuild' plan if ever put into place. But if Sarver somehow thinks Chriss or Bender can come in and have a KAT, Porzingis, Booker, or even Okafor-esque impact in their rookie season, then I think he's sorely mistaken (or McD has sold him some 'beachfront property in Yuma' )

BUT, if whoever our choices are brings excitement, and basically, 'butts in seats', Sarver probably doesn't care if we win or not, just that he's filling the arena.

[NavLDO]

Bottomline, to argue against Hield is ludicrous (Speed). I am not going back an forth about Buddy. He is a baller, period!

...for only 1 out of 4 seasons...he was very 'average' his Sophomore/Junior seasons, and 'below average' his Freshman season.

So go ahead and 'shut-down' any further discussion on Hield, but he's not 'Superman' and 'choked' pretty hard on the biggest stage of his career against Villanova in the Final Four. He has 'holes' in his game, just like a lot of other prospects. His defense is 'meh' his PPR and A/TO declined EVERY YEAR--his worst overall season as a Freshman was his BEST season for those metrics. His A/TO, from Freshman to Senior went: 1.14, 1.03, .99, .66 ; his PPR went -1.62, -1.80, -2.10, -4.85.

And it was noted yesterday, I think by Ford, that history is not on Hield's side for success in the NBA for those that were average players, then suddenly had one outlier season. When your TS% and eFG% go from .55 and .51 respectively, in his Junior Season, to .67 and .62 as a Senior--that is an outlier, and not one I personally am taking stock in, in being an accurate reflection of how he'll perform in the NBA.

So I'm not sure why you feel that Hield is a 'can't miss prospect' and will be the BPA at 4 when we pick, but it's not a 'slam-dunk' case for Hield.

Hield was also a BEAST as a HS Senior. Not great his first three years in HS, but by the time he is one of the oldest and most experienced guys on the floor he can DOMINATE! I expect based on this trend, that by the time he is an elder statesman in the league, if he lasts, he will feast on the youngens coming in! Can't wait! Dude's a baller.

So what you are saying is that if we draft Hield, we can expect for him to BALL-OUT in our '19-'20 season...cool. By then, We'll have pissed off Booker somehow, and he'll go play for another team, allowing Hield to 'dominate' in that season for our SG position. OK, I'm patient. Good thing drafting the Senior will make us competitive sooner than Bender or Chriss...

[JMac1]

I did a for fun mock draft on my personal website if you guys want to check it out: http://thedoublescreen.com/words/2016-mock-draft-odyssey -- it is GIF heavy and word heavy it you want some reading content.

Had fun with your picks since you had a lot. Anywhere after 2 is a mystery, so it makes this draft pretty fun.

Well done. I'd be happy with that outcome.

Agree, I would love that for Suns
Furkan's GIF

I trust McD when it comes to draft. If he will choose Chriss before Bender then I will assume he knows more than us.

At the end of the day, I believe that is who it will come down to and I will trust him over me. Hield, Dunn, Brown, and Murray are all in the mold of Bledsoe, Booker, TJ, Archie and Knight in some form or fashion. BW said unless the difference is clear, which it isn't, you go for need.

I think it will be Chriss because he is a dynamic athlete, but I like the length and skill of Bender. I'll clap and cheer if it is Bender and I will smile ruefully shrug my shoulders and say "ok, we will see" if it is Chriss and hope Ellenson falls.

[JMac1]

...for only 1 out of 4 seasons...he was very 'average' his Sophomore/Junior seasons, and 'below average' his Freshman season.

So go ahead and 'shut-down' any further discussion on Hield, but he's not 'Superman' and 'choked' pretty hard on the biggest stage of his career against Villanova in the Final Four. He has 'holes' in his game, just like a lot of other prospects. His defense is 'meh' his PPR and A/TO declined EVERY YEAR--his worst overall season as a Freshman was his BEST season for those metrics. His A/TO, from Freshman to Senior went: 1.14, 1.03, .99, .66 ; his PPR went -1.62, -1.80, -2.10, -4.85.

And it was noted yesterday, I think by Ford, that history is not on Hield's side for success in the NBA for those that were average players, then suddenly had one outlier season. When your TS% and eFG% go from .55 and .51 respectively, in his Junior Season, to .67 and .62 as a Senior--that is an outlier, and not one I personally am taking stock in, in being an accurate reflection of how he'll perform in the NBA.

So I'm not sure why you feel that Hield is a 'can't miss prospect' and will be the BPA at 4 when we pick, but it's not a 'slam-dunk' case for Hield.

Hield was also a BEAST as a HS Senior. Not great his first three years in HS, but by the time he is one of the oldest and most experienced guys on the floor he can DOMINATE! I expect based on this trend, that by the time he is an elder statesman in the league, if he lasts, he will feast on the youngens coming in! Can't wait! Dude's a baller.

So what you are saying is that if we draft Hield, we can expect for him to BALL-OUT in our '19-'20 season...cool. By then, We'll have pissed off Booker somehow, and he'll go play for another team, allowing Hield to 'dominate' in that season for our SG position. OK, I'm patient. Good thing drafting the Senior will make us competitive sooner than Bender or Chriss...

Can't wait til you guys are crying in your bed at night watching Buddy light it up EARLY in the season for Minny or NO. I can't wait

"How did Minny get so lucky?" is what I will be hearing. This is so 2009 all over again.

[Saberestar]

Buddy Hield says he’s concluded his pre-draft workouts. Here’s the teams he said he worked out for: LAL, Celtics, Pelicans, TWolves, Suns.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SerenaWinters/status/744267143747821568

So you are telling me there's a chance??

[darealjuice]

This draft feels like the polar opposite of the 2013 draft for us. In 2013, we wanted to draft the athletic big man (Noel), but we got the European prospect with less exposure (Len). This year, we want the European prospect with less exposure (Bender), but there are rumors that we could pass him for the athletic big man (Chriss) even if he's still on the board. Also, some people want a guard as BPA that we (probably) won't take (McLemore vs. Dunn/Hield/Murray). Obviously oversimplifying the situation, but it was just something kinda funny that crossed my mind this morning lol.

[NavLDO]

Maybe. Huge maybe. We need to either commit or roll the dice.

You just keep building. It will eventually click. It isn't an all or nothing thing.

I guess you just never know when it will all come together. A couple of years ago it looked kind of bleak in Minnesota. You had a team that suffered a ton of very close losses and a fringe playoff team but it looked like Love wanted out and Rubio always seemed to be injured, so the team that was the 10th seed looked to be about ready to fade. Then suddenly they draft LaVine (who doesn't look happy), trade for Wiggins, luckily win the lottery and get Towns, Dieng starts to really ball with them, when they all play with Rubio they already outscore opponents.

That all came together extremely quickly. I guess one could argue it didn't, since they still had the 5th worst record, but adding the 5th pick and Thibs and it looks undeniable that this team is going to be very good in the future, and probably sooner than a lot of people think.

That's why I mentioned awhile back that I 'respect' the Minny rebuild route. Obviously, luck had something to do with it, but having a player of Love's caliber (something, we don't), was a huge boon as a trade chip for a team that wanted to win now in Cleveland.

But Minny might be scary good next year (Wiggins, KAT, Dieng, LaVine, Payne, Pekovic--oof); same with the Bucks (Giannis, MCW, Middleton, Parker, Monroe, along with some nice 'glue' pieces in O'Bryant, Mayo, Plumlee, etc.).

That said, and while off-topic a bit...if Len repeats what he did in his last 30ish games last season, a more seasoned Booker, the 40%-from-3-prior-to-his-injury Warren, a fully healthy Bledsoe, and a couple of lotto picks this year, we might not be as far away as many surmise.

[JMac1]

Buddy Hield says he’s concluded his pre-draft workouts. Here’s the teams he said he worked out for: LAL, Celtics, Pelicans, TWolves, Suns.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SerenaWinters/status/744267143747821568

So you are telling me there's a chance??

[Cactus Jack]

Buddy Hield says he’s concluded his pre-draft workouts. Here’s the teams he said he worked out for: LAL, Celtics, Pelicans, TWolves, Suns.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SerenaWinters/status/744267143747821568

So you are telling me there's a chance??

[Saberestar]

Fourteen players, including projected top-two picks Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, have been invited to attend Thursday’s NBA draft at the Barclays Center in New York, league sources told The Vertical.

The invited players, in alphabetical order:

Wade Baldwin, Vanderbilt
Dragan Bender, Maccabi Tel Aviv
Jaylen Brown, Cal
Marquese Chriss, Washington
Deyonta Davis, Michigan State
Kris Dunn, Providence
Henry Ellenson, Marquette
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
Brandon Ingram, Duke
Skal Labissiere, Kentucky
Jamal Murray, Kentucky
Jakob Poeltl, Utah
Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga
Ben Simmons, LSU

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--fourteen-prospects-invited-to-draft-191735213.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma

Not surprises here.

[OGBAH]

I couldn't even finish Chriss's weakness video