'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[MisterHibachi]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SteveKerr/status/440219555437109248[/tweet]

Is Kerr trying to fire Curry up with some reverse psychology?

Tweet's from 2014.

[Nbafanatic]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SteveKerr/status/440219555437109248[/tweet]

Is Kerr trying to fire Curry up with some reverse psychology?

Tweet's from 2014.

Hehe I see. So, he was still a TNT guy back then, what is your point? Kerr is a smart guy and knows that Lebron is one of greats, so what?

[Quotatious]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SteveKerr/status/440219555437109248[/tweet]

Is Kerr trying to fire Curry up with some reverse psychology?

Tweet's from 2014.

It made sense back then. Noah was having his best season, he certainly seemed like an ultimate intangibles guy, the kind of player that boxscore cannot properly evaluate. Sort of like Bill Walton-lite.

[Colbinii]

Is Kerr trying to fire Curry up with some reverse psychology?

Tweet's from 2014.

Hehe I see. So, he was still a TNT guy back then, what is your point? Kerr is a smart guy and knows that Lebron is one of greats, so what?

He is just pointing out what Kerr said a couple of years ago. Your post comes off very aggressive

[Colbinii]

Is Kerr trying to fire Curry up with some reverse psychology?

Tweet's from 2014.

It made sense back then. Noah was having his best season, he certainly seemed like an ultimate intangibles guy, the kind of player that boxscore cannot properly evaluate. Sort of like Bill Walton-lite.

Not to mention Joakim Noah basically guaranteed a win in game 7 against Brooklyn, then drops 24/14 on 12-17 shooting, 6 BLKs, 1 turnover, 7 offensive rebounds, and a game score of 28.7, with a 150 oRTG on the game.

[Doctor MJ]

The issue is that LeBron didn't kick into this mode simply because of the stakes. We've seen in the past that LeBron isn't someone who is capable of flipping that switch in the same way as Jordan or Shaq. He gets in his own head a lot more, which is why some of his worst moment have come with his back to the wall.

If I weight odds, then the odds of LeBron going nuts like he's done here simply based on it being the finals, etc, the odds are very low and absolutely not worth overwhelming the entire season leading up to that.

But, however he got here, LeBron appears to be here now, and that may well be what gives Cleveland its first championship since rock & roll was for teenagers, and that should be a really big deal.

Of course as I say all this, we all have to wait and see what happens in Game 7.

It's not like Kerr to make a major adjustment in Game 7, at least from what we've seen, but as I like to say: There's nothing hard about stopping LeBron or anyone else from scoring, you just have to commit enough man power to it and be okay with other openings. Right now Cleveland is winning largely as a 2-man show in a way that frankly Westbrook/Durant came nothing close to, and they're doing it with a 3rd offensive star who can't seem to get used by the offense. To me they seem like exactly the type of team you'd try to "make someone else beat us".

Granted as I say all this, now that Cleveland has its groove going, the passing & movement looks excellent, which will make it much harder to stop. This is why it's so critical to keep a team from grooving, as any opponent of the Golden State Warriors will tell you. The good news is though that even when Cleveland's team offense looks great, that doesn't mean it looks great in the half-court. If they can minimize fast break opportunities, and go hard on LeBron & Kyrie in the half court, to me the game is quite winnable for them.

With all due respect Doc, I think you're wrong about Lebron not being able to "flip the switch", so much as that's even a real thing that NBA players can do. I'd argue that since Lebron plays a more team oriented game than Jordan, his switch flipping would be less likely to show up in his individual numbers. So that has me looking at his team results, which show his teams winning series after going down many times, probably more than any star in NBA history:

Down 1-0 against the Bulls in 2011, down 2-1 to the 2012 Pacers, down 3-2 the 2012 Celtics, down 1-0 against the 2012 Thunder, down 1-0 to the 2013 Bulls, down 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2 to the 2013 Spurs, down 1-0 to the 2014 Pacers, down 1-0 and 2-1 to the 2015 Bulls, and now down 3-1 to the Warriors and coming back to tie the series (even if they lose on Sunday, which is more likely than not, I think it's obvious he and the Cavs have played far better in this series with their backs against the wall)... Even in his first stint in Cleveland he trailed 2-0 against the Pistons before winning 4 straight. That's 9 times, 8 in the last 6 years, with a possible 10th pending the Warriors series.

There's a clear, established pattern here. Coming back from deficits where his team "had their backs against the wall" has happened too many times for it to be simple dumb luck.

Oh he's absolutely more team-oriented that Jordan and that absolutely makes "flipping the switch" harder. As an example, I don't know if we've ever seen a player who "flips" more easily than Dwyane Wade. It's because his game is so simple that all it takes is more energy to kick into that zone. The more complex a player's game the less predictable it is, both to those observing on the outside, and to the man in question.

I feel like you're speaking for the accused here, but I actually prefer those with complex games and I've always liked that about LeBron. All I'm really saying is that the narrative of "His back was against the wall, so he remembered how to shoot and they all lived happily ever after.", is not something I can seriously as a full explanation.

[Nbafanatic]

Tweet's from 2014.

Hehe I see. So, he was still a TNT guy back then, what is your point? Kerr is a smart guy and knows that Lebron is one of greats, so what?

He is just pointing out what Kerr said a couple of years ago. Your post comes off very aggressive

It wasn't my intention being aggressive at all, just to understand the reasoning.

[Doctor MJ]

it's tough when we're in a thread like this where we try to label precisely how much credit everyone deserves relative to each other, but the reality for me is that LeBron deserves every bit of credit for how good he's playing right now, but using that to erase what came before like it wasn't real doesn't remotely give us an accurate picture of what LeBron is as a player. We talk about how he can "do it all", and that's not really wrong, but the dude really does have important weaknesses that will continue to show up the rest of his career, and not just in the regular season.

Out of curiosity, what weaknesses specifically are you pointing to? When his jumper falls, he's out of the world. He was challenged to do that in 2013 and SA paid the price. I pointed out his rather average-below average turnover rate but he even fixed that (!) last game. This is about as good as it gets. Perhaps you want to take a stat based view, but even then he's consistently great in elimination games.

Well the most glaring one frankly is that his shooting is so erratic and when it isn't falling he seems afraid of it.

The more subtle stuff relates to his inability to adapt himself to let other talents by his side to shine. His natural state is to do everything, and essentially just assume that other guys can find something useful to do with the crumbs leftover. For someone as theoretically versatile as he is, I'd hoped for far better once he started chasing stars to be his teammates.

The most ugly one to me relates to the intangible effects of what he seems to do to the organization around him - and granted this organization is largely "the Cleveland Cavaliers", but I think we've seen enough to know that at this point that if the Cavs were truly like the Miami Heat in backbone, LeBron wouldn't have come back.

So then he tends to put himself in situations where he gets what he wants, and when he does the organization makes objectively poor moves in order to please him. And those who don't please him, even if they are trying, they tend to get humiliated.

Of course that last criticism of mine seems like something that admitting is going to do me no favors. How seriously will people take these criticism if LeBron and the Cavs complete what many may call a defining moment in basketball history? But I'd prefer to make explicit my bias here I suppose now that I think of it. I've begun cheering against LeBron since he came back to Cleveland in a way I never did before because I believe he's doing stuff that actively gets in the way of his own long-term success while leaving collateral damage in his wake, and I'd like to see him not have immediate success that causes him to conclude that his mistakes were actually proof of his own genius.

And so yeah, that means I've got to work to make sure I'm not letting some manner of "basketball morality" underrate his accomplishments.

[Doctor MJ]

The issue is that LeBron didn't kick into this mode simply because of the stakes. We've seen in the past that LeBron isn't someone who is capable of flipping that switch in the same way as Jordan or Shaq. He gets in his own head a lot more, which is why some of his worst moment have come with his back to the wall.

I'm not saying that there aren't other factors affecting his level of play, but let's look at his playoffs since he made the leap:

2009: Surpasses his GOAT-level regular season with an even more insane playoffs, continuing even against the Magic
2010: Runs into Celtics team - SSB's talked about the elbow injury thing (seems fair to mention in light of all the talk of Steph's own injury limiting him), but he does show up in elimination when no one else did
2011: Bulls were the top seed and they dismantled them after being down 1-0. Had that crazy comeback too in G4/G5 (forgot which one). A combination of some smart schemes and him getting inside his own head against Dallas results in one of the WOAT Finals performances. Dr Spaceman's asked people to take another look at this and how LeBron was still having a major impact on D, but yeah. A definite black mark on his playoff performances.
2012: Bosh gets injured, and his entire legacy is on the line down 2-1 to Indiana. We all know what happens next - 40-18-9 (Haslem hilariously missing a jumper to deny him a triple double - the look on James' face was hilarious), keeps feeding Wade (who starts 0-9) until he gets going, and together they just start tearing Indiana apart.

Down 2-3 against Boston after leading 2-0 earlier in the series, his entire legacy's on the line again. Scores 41 in 3 quarters and the game is effectively over by the half, where he'd hit 12 straight buckets and just silenced one of the most hostile crowds in the NBA. Considering the circumstances, on the short list of the greatest playoff performances ever.

Down 0-1 against the favored OKC, and the jumper that saved their season in game 6 having deserted him, uses his unique combination of size, strength, and vision to make plays from the post, culminating in that game 5 laugher where the role players hit a bajillion 3s (you'd see this again in Atlanta)
2013: Still impactful when he was overthinking - but down 10 in the fourth, facing elimination, goes nuts and defends/scores/makes plays like only he can. With help from Ray Allen, goes into Game 7 and turns in 37-12-4 to win the title.
2014: No real adversity in the East just like last year, but his series against Indiana is highly underrated - save for the extremely bizarre game 5, of course. Against the Spurs: almost takes a 2-0 sweep on the road, and down 0-1, turns in an absolute exhibition of his scoring prowess. On the game's most important possession, passes it off to a slumping Bosh in the corner who promptly knocks it down, even though Bron himself was red hot. Loses to the GOAT team performance eventually, but put up some 19/20 point quarters to try and bring them back in it
2015: Love gets injured, but they still easily dispatch the East even without his jumper. Has a chance to win game 1 of the Finals, and Kyrie gets injured. We all know what happens next - manages to win 2 games and keep them close, before eventually succumbing to a Warriors team that would be superior even with KLove and Kyrie
2016: No real adversity again - Raptors looked like they couldn't win at the Q - but turns it on in Game 6 to avoid an "anything-can-happen" Game 7 and to get extra rest for the Finals (which ended up not mattering anyway, lol - but they were up in that game too).

And I think we don't need to talk about what else happened in 2016.

Even if he was unable to flip the switch like Jordan/Shaq, doesn't mean LeBron isn't great at it too. When you dig into the circumstances behind his elimination game stats, it becomes even more amazing, not less so.

Good post. I think my opinions are basically already covered by what I wrote so your insight seems a good place to leave it.

[Doctor MJ]

Cavaliers Postseason Adjusted Offense (ORTG minus opp DRTG):

05 PHO +17.0
56 MNL +14.0
01 LAL +13.6
03 POR +13.4
10 PHO +13.4
16 CLE +13.1

Cavaliers Postseason Adjusted Net Rating (Relative Offense + Defense, basically SRS per 100):

01 LAL +20.7
96 CHI +16.9
91 CHI +15.8
16 CLE +15.4

I can't tell you how awesome it is that you're compiling and sharing stuff like this SSB.

I honestly haven't been thinking about the Cavs as an all-time great performer, but clearly I need to start serious consideration on it.

[SideshowBob]

Cavaliers Postseason Adjusted Offense (ORTG minus opp DRTG):

05 PHO +17.0
56 MNL +14.0
01 LAL +13.6
03 POR +13.4
10 PHO +13.4
16 CLE +13.1

Cavaliers Postseason Adjusted Net Rating (Relative Offense + Defense, basically SRS per 100):

01 LAL +20.7
96 CHI +16.9
91 CHI +15.8
16 CLE +15.4

I can't tell you how awesome it is that you're compiling and sharing stuff like this SSB.

I honestly haven't been thinking about the Cavs as an all-time great performer, but clearly I need to start serious consideration on it.

I actually had some open follow up questions on those lines regarding GS and the Cavs but am holding out till after the game. Might as well go for it.

To all:

1. Regardless of tomorrow's outcome, what odds would you put on GS vs the past champions (say back to 00)?

2. Assuming Cleveland pulls this out:

If we replayed this series, how often would you expect Cleveland to win? Is this just variance - timely hot shooting from Lebron w/good defensive effort? Or is Cleveland/Lebron just really that good and chose to dial it up when necessary? Or do they just match up well? Or is GS just that hampered by injury across the board?

What odds would you give them vs past champs?

What does it say about the league and our evaluations if in a season with 2 teams that won 140G and put up >10 SRS, the Cavs were able to scale up to such a degree that they played like a 14-15 SRS team and won the whole thing?

[microfib4thewin]

I agree with MJ on this. If Lebron can just flip a switch then why wasn't he able to make 2014 more competitive, or prevent the Cavs from getting blown out in game 6 last year? The Lebron that we are seeing now is not something that we have ever seen before. Yes, he has stepped up in elimination games, but he didn't do it against a better team, never mind one that is an overwhelming favorite. He took down a Boston team that was way past their prime, and while Boston should be commended for their effort, if 2012 Lebron was anything like the Lebron of the last two games the Heat would have finished the Celtics in 5 or 6. In 2013 the Pacers are a class below the Heat so Lebron's monster performance in game 7 should be expected of him. Against the Spurs he was bad until the 4th quarter in game 6 and the margin was razor thin enough that it took a Ray Allen 3 to seal the deal. Game 7 was more impresssive given that the Spurs could be argued as a close equal to the Heat, but the Heat went into the series as the favorites and were playing at home.

If Lebron repeats what he did in game 7 then it may be the greatest accomplishment in NBA history, but I do not see this Lebron as the same Lebron in the previous years.

[HeartBreakKid]

I agree with MJ on this. If Lebron can just flip a switch then why wasn't he able to make 2014 more competitive, or prevent the Cavs from getting blown out in game 6 last year? The Lebron that we are seeing now is not something that we have ever seen before. Yes, he has stepped up in elimination games, but he didn't do it against a better team, never mind one that is an overwhelming favorite. He took down a Boston team that was way past their prime, and while Boston should be commended for their effort, if 2012 Lebron was anything like the Lebron of the last two games the Heat would have finished the Celtics in 5 or 6. In 2013 the Pacers are a class below the Heat so Lebron's monster performance in game 7 should be expected of him. Against the Spurs he was bad until the 4th quarter in game 6 and the margin was razor thin enough that it took a Ray Allen 3 to seal the deal. Game 7 was more impresssive given that the Spurs could be argued as a close equal to the Heat, but the Heat went into the series as the favorites and were playing at home.

If Lebron repeats what he did in game 7 then it may be the greatest accomplishment in NBA history, but I do not see this Lebron as the same Lebron in the previous years.

Maybe the 2014 Spurs were just better that year, I mean 73 wins is nice, but it's pretty obvious GSW can be beaten by other championship teams, if they faced the 2014 Spurs when they were hitting all those 3 point shots then GSW probably gets eliminated.

As for why he didn't destroy the Warriors in game 6, he was exhausted by all the minutes he put forth and his team was at a much greater disadvantage with no Irving or Love then what they have this year. Also, Lebron James was worse last year overall.

[MisterHibachi]

LeBron was a legit bad shooter last year. This year not so much - he just didn't take jumpers. Took the Cavs two games to figure out the right game plan and for him to realize he needed to shoot. Same as 2013 finals.

[SideshowBob]

Both teams up to Game 7:

Cavaliers (20 G):

+13.97 SRS
+5.12 SOS
+13.1 Offense (117.2 ORTG)
-2.2 Defense (107.4 DRTG)
+15.2 Adjusted Net

Spoiler:

w/Team TOs

116.2 ORTG, 106.4 DRTG
+12.1 Offense, -3.2 Defense

Cavaliers w/Lebron ON the court: 119.1 ORTG, 104.6 DRTG, +14.5 Net

Warriors (23 G):

+8.13 SRS
+3.78 SOS
+6.2 Offense (112.6 ORTG)
-2.8 Defense (107.7 DRTG)
+9.0 Adjusted Net

Spoiler:

111.0 ORTG, 106.2 DRTG w/Team TOs, so +4.6 Offense, -4.7 Defense

Warriors w/Curry (18 G):

+7.24 SRS
+4.74
+6.0 Offense (111.9 ORTG)
-1.7 Defense (109.3 DRTG)
+7.8 Adjusted Net

[kayess]

How does Thompson's play in these Finals affect your ranking of him? He probably has no shot against the big names, but when examined in a vacuum: he's been great on D, able to contest most of Kyrie's/LeBron's shots when he's on them, great off-ball, can put it on the floor when defenses commit to contesting the shot, and he's the second greatest shooter ever.

His value next to a great on-ball threat is amazing, and I feel that in the flow of discussion throughout the season (something like "Curry GOAT RS" -> "Hey, Draymond looks amazing" -> "Is it possible they're both GOAT-level?!"), he's been overlooked (not to say he's necessarily better or more impactful thatn Steph/Draymond)

[HeartBreakKid]

Perhaps the 2nd best 3 point shooter ever, I don't think that really makes you the 2nd best shooter in general.

I don't see why Klay would be mentioned in a player of the year thread, he's not anywhere close to that. He's a top 15 player most likely, can't really say much more than that at this stage in his career.

[Clyde Frazier]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/hubertdavisfor3/status/744420335550771200[/tweet]

[Texas Chuck]

I keep hearing how Klay is the 2nd best shooter or 3-pt shooter of all-time. I think that is premature and that if he wasn't playing next to Curry we wouldn't be hearing so much of this. He's obvious a great 3-pt shooter, but...

[Dr Spaceman]

Not even interested in any serious analysis of LerBron or Curry or anything really I until this game has been over for a while. Not for a long long time have I felt this kind of emotion or been so swept up in the moment for a sports game. This has the potential to be the type of thing we tell our grandkids about, cliche as that is.

-Thye greatest comeback in Finals history
-against the winningest team of all time
-first Cleveland title in however many goddamn years
-LeBron delivering for his hometown team
-the Warriors scratching and clawing to save their historic 73win season

I mean this game is literally the climax of the story of LeBron's career. It's the type of plot that would be too unrealistic for a sports movie. His performance in the last two games has been unlike anything I've seen in my life and I truly think he's going to top himself tonight.

I'm all in for Cleveland tonight, but the great thing is the historical significance is there no matter which team wins.