The Lebron Thread (2015-16 Pt. 4)

[RSCD3_]

Any of guys know the conversion between win shares and per or maybe a better way of putting it is what kind of game correlates with things like a .15, .25, etc. How much did lebrons win shares rise after thursday?

Because he is currently 17th at 4.54, .16 shares away from 10th in a season and .30 WS away from 5th of all time which is his own 2009 playoff run. Does he need to win also to get the shares?

WS depends on difference between interaction of USG/ORTG & DRTG (so to oversimplify, WS = [USGxORTG] - DRTG).

His WS before Game 6 were between 3.9 and 4.0. WS before Game 5 were between 3.4 and 3.5, so ~1.2 WS through 2 games.

Also, Mike Goodman on APBR has been estimated game-by-game advanced shifts for Lebron in this series:

Link

Sounds like it's very plausible he could get that 5th place then. Interesting!

Also apparently a 42.4 PER night would give him the highest PER for a playoffs when the player also won a title currently that is held by ( Not sure why ive never heard this mentioned on these threads ) 1991 Jordan with 32.04

[JulesWinnfield]

A little over 10 hours away...

Biggest game in LeBron's career.
Biggest game in Cavs' franchise history.
Biggest game in Cleveland sports for decades.
And quite honestly, maybe what could eventually prove to be one of the most important games in the history of the league.

I'm a nervous wreck.

I'm not a big believer in karma or divine intervention especially when it comes to sports, but if anyone is owed a night here it is you and your city. I can't imagine putting Cleveland through this roller coaster of emotions only to have them let down again...

Man this is storybook crap if they win tonight. Who the hell ever thought on that July night in 2010 that a day like today could even be possible. Most truly transcendent sports careers have a comeback story to them (Ali, Jordan), but this sort of comeback is unique in its own way. 48 minutes........

[SideshowBob]

Any of guys know the conversion between win shares and per or maybe a better way of putting it is what kind of game correlates with things like a .15, .25, etc. How much did lebrons win shares rise after thursday?

Because he is currently 17th at 4.54, .16 shares away from 10th in a season and .30 WS away from 5th of all time which is his own 2009 playoff run. Does he need to win also to get the shares?

WS depends on difference between interaction of USG/ORTG & DRTG (so to oversimplify, WS = [USGxORTG] - DRTG).

His WS before Game 6 were between 3.9 and 4.0. WS before Game 5 were between 3.4 and 3.5, so ~1.2 WS through 2 games.

Also, Mike Goodman on APBR has been estimated game-by-game advanced shifts for Lebron in this series:

Link

Sounds like it's very plausible he could get that 5th place then. Interesting!

Also apparently a 42.4 PER night would give him the highest PER for a playoffs when the player also won a title currently that is held by ( Not sure why ive never heard this mentioned on these threads ) 1991 Jordan with 32.04

His average in Games 5 & 6 was ~49 so it seems doable. But he needs higher than 42.4 no? 30.3 through 20 games at ~39 MPG, probably plays more than that tonight but to top 32.04 he needs around 65-70 today.

[JulesWinnfield]

Remember the record for points scored in a game 7 finals win is 37. He owns it. He's tied with someone else. He would have it all to himself but damn Chris birdman Andersen for stripping him of a point for a lane violation on a free throw in game 7 vs the Spurs. Actually damn the refs for calling something they virtually never call, let alone in the 2nd half of a game 7 finals tight one

[MisterHibachi]

I feel like a nervous wreck. I'm changing my mind every other hour. Feel zero confidence in a Cavs victory right now. I just think the Warriors are gonna realize they won 73 freaking games and smack down these upstarts and we'll go back to regular narratives.

[MisterHibachi]

Wonder how Kryie handles the double teams Kerr is no doubt gonna throw at him.

[ronnymac2]

I feel like a nervous wreck. I'm changing my mind every other hour. Feel zero confidence in a Cavs victory right now. I just think the Warriors are gonna realize they won 73 freaking games and smack down these upstarts and we'll go back to regular narratives.

This is not the same Warrior team that won 73 though. No Bogut is huge. And Iggy's injury may be even more important. That's two of the five best per-minute players on the team.

I think this will be a war of attrition, where both teams just slug it out in a close one. One team goes up double digits in the late 3rd quarter, other team comes back and makes it a game. Similar to LA vs. BOS in 2010.

I have no idea who wins. No idea.

I do think J.R. Smith will be important in some way though, and I think it will have to do with LBJ's influence on him. I think Smith will be calm in a big moment when history has shown he has played poorly in the past.

[RSCD3_]

WS depends on difference between interaction of USG/ORTG & DRTG (so to oversimplify, WS = [USGxORTG] - DRTG).

His WS before Game 6 were between 3.9 and 4.0. WS before Game 5 were between 3.4 and 3.5, so ~1.2 WS through 2 games.

Also, Mike Goodman on APBR has been estimated game-by-game advanced shifts for Lebron in this series:

Link

Sounds like it's very plausible he could get that 5th place then. Interesting!

Also apparently a 42.4 PER night would give him the highest PER for a playoffs when the player also won a title currently that is held by ( Not sure why ive never heard this mentioned on these threads ) 1991 Jordan with 32.04[/quote

Hlis average in Games 5 & 6 was ~49 so it seems doable. But he needs higher than 42.4 no? 30.3 through 20 games at ~39 MPG, probably plays more than that tonight but to top 32.04 he needs around 65-70 today.

Oh yeah my mistake, I multiplied by 6 instead of 20 cause I confused his finals series number of games and overall playoff number of games. Yeah either way right now he is 5th all time in that category of championship runs, if he wins tonight of course.

[JulesWinnfield]

Gotta pound them on the glass tonight. Game 7 finals shooting efficiency is always down given the nerves. Just about without exception . There figures to be a bunch of rebounds to be had, and this is an area where the Cavs are just simply better. Pretty damn clearly so. Win the extra possession game. Even on their way to 73 wins the Warriors were below league average in both drb% and orb%. The Cavs were above average in both. Now with the Warriors down a big in Bogut, Tristan Thompson is even more of a load to handle. They just don't have an answer for him down there. 31 rebounds the last 2 games. Lebron is doing work on the glass, at times he's the biggest guy on the floor in this series. Kevin Love has to wear his big boy pants tonight. Pound them on those boards...

[Dr Spaceman]

I just can't pick against LeBron tonight. I could pretend to put on my analyst hat and say this is all about Iggy's injury and a wing guarding Green and all this stuff is true, but in my heart of hearts LeBron just has this under control. I think it's really that simple; the Warriors are scared of him in a way we've never seen before.

It's just a gut call, but my confidence lies with James.

[ppedro123]

I just can't pick against LeBron tonight. I could pretend to put on my analyst hat and say this is all about Iggy's injury and a wing guarding Green and all this stuff is true, but in my heart of hearts LeBron just has this under control. I think it's really that simple; the Warriors are scared of him in a way we've never seen before.

It's just a gut call, but my confidence lies with James.

i really hope you're right


dude is on a mission

[tsherkin]

What I'm hoping for is a wonderful game from Lebron and a wonderful game from Steph which ends in a Warriors victory, hehehe.

James has been a BEAST lately, though. I should point out that he's been 4/8 and 3/6 from 3 in the last two games. The odds of that happening again are EXTREMELY limited (particularly given that he's been assisted on just under a quarter of them), so I'm interested to see how things play out tonight.

[BasketballFan7]

Cavs gone' win it

[The High Cyde]

I shouldnt have read these comments, its getting to me now too -____-

[RSCD3_]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e-1XqjYZopQ

Great video by brent barry, 3d and vince about how the warriors have been getting beaten defensively by lebron and possible counters. Mentioning forcing lebron to one side and doubling near the elbow

I feel there is a risk reward with how many differem looks they give him, it increases the amount of thinking lebron has to do but it also increases the chances of the warriors not rotating correctly or one/two players being on different pages resulting in easy buckets.

For a game 7 you'd ideally want to keep the strategry as simple or familiar as possible but I dont know if that's a sound strategy to give someone as tactical as lebron james.

[MisterHibachi]

Warriors at home or LeBron in a Game 7. Betting against either is a terrible idea. I have no idea what's gonna happen tonight. If both teams play their best, Warriors take it.

[JulesWinnfield]

I don't know. I feel oddly confident. My head says this is a toss up game and logic doesn't have me leaning either way, but I just woke up feeling damn good about their chances. I have a feeling we're all going to be celebrating in this thread tonight. This just feels like it's Cleveland's time. I have that "believeland" 30 for 30 sitting in my DVR ever since its original airing on May 14th, and I've purposely avoided watching it for the past 5 weeks, because watching it after a Cleveland championship can only enhance the experience of the Cavs victory. If they lose tonight I'm deleting that ish asap and I will probably never see it lol

[Dupp]

Warriors at home or LeBron in a Game 7. Betting against either is a terrible idea. I have no idea what's gonna happen tonight. If both teams play their best, Warriors take it.

* unless lebron plays his best

[tsherkin]

Warriors at home or LeBron in a Game 7. Betting against either is a terrible idea. I have no idea what's gonna happen tonight. If both teams play their best, Warriors take it.

* unless lebron plays his best

Dunno about that. If both teams are clicking along at max level, there are more Warriors players better than Cavs players, and if Dray/Klay/Steph are all going, I can't envision a Lebron game which will overcome that.

[Montavious Bart]

Warriors at home or LeBron in a Game 7. Betting against either is a terrible idea. I have no idea what's gonna happen tonight. If both teams play their best, Warriors take it.

* unless lebron plays his best

Dunno about that. If both teams are clicking along at max level, there are more Warriors players better than Cavs players, and if Dray/Klay/Steph are all going, I can't envision a Lebron game which will overcome that.

Betting against max level Lebron would be like betting against max level Shaq or Jordan. If everyone, and that includes Love and Jr, were to play to their best abilities, this likely won't happen by the way, you'd easily favor the Lebron-led Cavs.