One-stop shop on SFs

[Notanoob]

The Vitals

This group has a ton of prospects from smaller schools, but the last two guys who I added mostly for fun, John Brown and Terry Tarpey, come from low majors.

Looking at the measurements, only Terry Tarpey looks potentially too small to play SF in the NBA. Damion Lee may be smaller than his listed height and thus also small for an NBA SF, but we can’t know for sure. On the other hand, there are plenty of tall prospects this year, including the top two picks, as well as Jake Layman, and James Webb III.

Length wise, Ingram and Jaylen Brown have seriously long arms, each at least 5” longer than their height in shoes. Meanwhile, Layman, Georges Niang and Troy Williams have short arms for their height. This is surprising for Williams given how well he racked up steals and blocks.

Offense

The top scorers of this group are John Brown and Georges Niang, who both scored on excellent efficiency. Of next group of scorers, Perry Ellis and Ben Simmons scored efficiently, while Taurean Prince and Jaylen Brown were very inefficient.

Jake Layman, Jordan Fouse and Terry Tarpey scored quite little. Layman was very efficient, while Fouse struggled to be efficient despite the low scoring burden. DeAndre Bembry struggled with efficiency as well.

Jaylen Brown led all SFs in USG%, obviously to his and his team’s detriment given his poor efficiency.
Ben Simmons predictably stands out with the leading AST%, followed by DeAndre Bembry and Georges Niang. Ellis, Layman and Webb all have an AST% below 10%.

Jaylen Brown compounds his poor efficiency with a high TOV%, while John Brown avoided turnovers very well, indicating that much of his offense comes from finishing plays rather than creating them. Prince joins Jaylen Brown in pairing poor efficiency with turnover troubles. Terry Tarpey and Jake Layman somehow struggle with turnovers in spite of very low usage rates. Finally, Troy Williams leads all SFs with the worst TOV%.

John Brown comes out ahead of a host of combo-forwards in offensive rebounding, averaging nearly 5 per40 pace adjusted. Damion Lee comes out as the worst, giving me more evidence that he isn’t the 6’6” they have him listed at. Georges Niang and Jake Layman stand out for struggling on the offensive glass in spite of their height. Terry Tarpey, Jaylen Brown and DeAndre Bembry all contributed little on the offensive glass.

The Net ORtg column is bookended by Browns; John at the top, Jaylen at the bottom. John Brown is followed by Dorian Finney-Smith. Jaylen Brown’s massive -10 should come as little surprise given that he rated poorly in everything but USG%, similar to Taurean Prince. But Brandon Ingram is a huge surprise to see at the bottom of this list given that he didn’t rate poorly at anything. Terry Tarpey and Troy Williams all come out as net-negatives on offense as well.

Penetration

This SF class has a lot of competent but few exciting slashers. Niang and Williams lead the class in converting looks at the rim in the half court, while Tarpey and Prince rate exceptionally poorly.

5 SFs took over half of their shots within 3 feet of the basket, including Derrick Jones, John Brown, Troy Williams, Terry Tarpey, and Ben Simmons. Brandon Ingram was the only SF to take less than a quarter of his shots at the rim.

Few prospects struggled with finishing at the rim, with the standout finishers being Layman, Niang, Webb, Simmons. Only Ingram and Fouse converted less than 60% of their shots at the rim.

Dorian Finney-Smith is the only prospect to excel at drawing fouls. Simmons, Jaylen Brown and Damion Lee were pretty good at it. Most prospects struggled to draw contact however, the worst offender being Georges Niang.

Ingram explains his struggles at the rim a bit with his elite %assisted, with just 15% of his made rim looks being assisted. Jaylen Brown has rated as a solid penetrators and gets a boost for his low %assisted too. Prince had the highest % of his makes at the rim assisted.

Shooting

Everyone from Lee on up is a capable 3 point shooter, with Ellis having the best 3P% this year and for his career. Ingram actually doesn’t project well as a shooter due to his poor foul shooting, but I don’t think that anyone has serious concerns about his jump shot. Damion Lee should get some credit for his great foul shooting and the amount of shots he had to create for himself.
Of the non-shooters, Terry Tarpey and James Webb III both had a season where they shot over 40% from three, so they do have some potential as shooters at least.

Passing

Simmons naturally stands out as a passer, leading the group in assists. He’s followed by Bembry, Niang and Fouse. Layman, Ellis and Webb passed very little.

Only Simmons, Bmbry and Fouse managed to pair their assist with an A/TO over 1.5. Many struggled with poor A/TOs, including Williams, Jaylen Brown, Webb and Layman.

Although they had solid A/TOs, Simmons, Tarpey and Prince turned the ball over too much. Ellis on the other hand, took excellent care of the ball, as did John Brown. Williams, Jaylen Brown and Layman all have serious turnover issues.

AST/USG gives us an idea of who is a shooter and who is a pass-first guy, and the results mostly speak for themselves.

Defense

If you’ve been wondering why I bothered to include Terry Tarpey, this is why. Defense, baby. Tarpey leads all SFs in steals, followed by Fouse, Simmons, and John Brown. James Webb and Troy Williams are good too, Williams is particularly impressive due to his poor length. I don’t count Damion Lee because he was playing a press defense which inflates steal rates a bit.

John Brown is this group’s top shot-blocker. He’s followed by Tarpey, Fouse and Ingram. Tarpey and Fouse get credit for playing taller than their height here. Damion Lee somehow didn’t block a single shot all year.
Simmons is unsurprisingly the top defensive rebounder, followed by Tarpey, Webb and Finney-Smith. Lee again plays small, rebounding like a point guard instead of a wing.

Overall, this class features a boatload of competent defenders, and a number of guys who could play real impact defense at SF, particularly Tarpey, Simmons, Fouse, Webb, John Brown, Williams and Bembry. Guys like Finney-Smith, and Prince didn’t rate as outstanding defenders but have good potential due to their ability to guard either forward position. Niang, Lee and Ellis are the only guys who clearly suck on defense.

[Notanoob]

Overall

John Brown – No, I don’t seriously think highly of John Brown from High Point. But it is fun to include a guy like this. A 6’8” small forward, an elite interior scorer who can pass, dominate the offensive glass, and collect steals and blocks like nobody’s business – yeah that’s cool. Will he even get a camp invite? Probably not. But hey, maybe he actually can play elite defense. And at 6’8”, maybe he can guard either forward position. And maybe he does actually have good vision. I think that there is a non-zero% chance that he has the ability to be a bench player in the NBA. He certainly has the athleticism to play.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLC1SYnliho[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qa--rfp0bGo[/youtube]

If you want to actually, seriously investigate him, go check out his game logs and see how he did against high-major teams (Texas Tech, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina this year, Clemson and OSU last year, along with some notable mid-majors).

Ben Simmons – He was a complete monster on both end despite not even giving his best effort. Literally his only problems are his non-existent jump shot and he turns the ball over a bit. But seriously, there shouldn’t be any question that he’s the best prospect. He’s an efficient scorer, a top notch passer, a great ball thief and rebounder. He has the same height and longer arms than Sabonis (who people think can play center), but has the speed and handle of a wing. Unless he tries as hard as Joe Barry Carrol or turns into a crackhead, he’s going to be an amazing player.

Dorian Finney-Smith – He’s a fantastic all-around player and glue guy and I have no idea why he is so low when Prince and Chriss are so high. He has the same measurements as Prince (quarter inch longer arms but whatever), but was a much better penetrator, didn’t turn the ball over nearly as much and was a significantly better defensive rebounder. He is a solid spot-up shooter who excels at drawing contact on the occasions when he drives to the basket, although he shouldn’t be mistaken for a real slasher. Defensively, he’s a solid player who can cover either forward position. He doesn’t have great speed, so faster wings can give him trouble, but he plays with good effort and will be a net-positive at the next level. Super-underrated 3-D combo-forward.

James Webb III – He’s a tweener. His offensive skill set is limited to finishing around the basket and mid-range jump shots. He just does not have the ability to create for himself or his teammates. This is the offensive skill set of a power forward. However, his big skill, and what makes him interesting, is his perimeter defense. Webb is an excellent defender, and has the size and rebounding to potentially slide up a position, although he does not offer any rim protection. If he manages to get back to hitting 3s he’ll have a job as a 3-D role player, but until he develops some perimeter skill he doesn’t have a job.

Terry Tarpey – Dude is a defensive freak it seems, but more of a guard-forward than a true SF, and his offense leaves a lot to be desired. If he finds his jump shot again he could be a net-positive, but outside of that it doesn’t look like he has much of a scoring game.
This year Tarpey’s team faced John Brown’s High Point and it seems that he kicked Brown’s ass. Tarpey got 10 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 6 steals and 2 blocks, and held Brown to 8 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists (with 3 turnovers). He also played against NC State, Dayton and Viriginia this year. If someone watched those games I’d like to hear about it. Cat Barber had an awful game, so if Tarpey was covering him that’s good news for Tarpey.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alddTiY9DwU[/youtube]
Just found this video.

Jake Layman – He was quite frustrating at Maryland. He can hit 3s very well, but he isn’t a scorer at all, he never attacks, never ever gets assists, and is stunningly turnover prone for a guy who does so little. He defends well for a guy with short arms, but he isn’t a special defender. He can be your designated floor-spacer and possibly play either forward position, but he’s a significantly worse option for this role than Prince or Dorian Finney-Smith.

Damion Lee – Quite old and not very good. He is a capable 3 point shooter, and takes many off the dribble, and is a great foul shooter. His % was hurt by his shot selection, but make no mistake, he is dangerous from deep. Beyond shooting though, his offensive skills aren’t much to talk about. He did not stand out much as a penetrator because he simply doesn’t have the speed or the explosiveness to score at the rim, and he passed the ball very little, although he also did not turn the ball over. He plays really small for his listed height. Defensively, Pitino got good effort out of him, but he’s a pretty average athlete and his Net DRtg is pretty poor. His age and athleticism combination leaves me with little interest in him.

DeAndre Bembry – He’s a good cutter, he can handle and pass like a guard, and his defense is quite good (but has been better). His big limitations are that he can’t shoot jumpers and he can’t draw fouls, but his intelligence makes him a positive on offense in spite of his scoring issues. It seems that he was coasting a bit on defense to stay fresh for offense, but he managed to be an impact defender anyways, and with the instincts he has, he could be quite good in the NBA when he’s not the offensive focal point. Bembry is basically a poor man’s swingman version of Simmons, and a supremely underrated prospect.

Jordan Fouse – John Brown and Terry Tarpey may have managed to get a higher combination of steals and blocks, but Fouse’s numbers are even more impressive because he managed to get them at a higher level of competition. Fouse is force on defense, 4 time Horizon league first team All-Defense. Jordan is also the only player in NCAA history to record 1,000+ points, 1,000+ rebounds, 250+ steals, 350+ assists, and 150+ blocks. His problem is that he isn’t a great offensive player. He certainly can pass, being the next best passer after Bembry and Simmons at SF, but his penetration skills and his jump shooting are a bit weak. Put him in the D-league and have him work on his shot enough to so that people won’t always help off of him and you have an excellent 3+D player.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ0yv1Uii-U[/youtube]
Funny thing is that he’s basically next to Bembry in every category, but Bembry is a first rounder and most people don’t know Fouse exists. Bembry certainly has shown off a better handle, but Fouse has shown more on defense and can at least hit his free-throws.