Portland - 2016 Offseason

[zzaj]

Opinion sure has soured on plumlee again here. I'll take a good upgrade if there is one, but I don't feel it's nearly as important as many seem to. I hope he works on that 15 foot jumper this offseason, would be a huge weapon for him.
Just seems like "rim protector" has become the new drum to beat ad nauseum here and elsewhere.

You should know how fickle we RealGMers are by now
I think folks are just looking at ways to upgrade and C is a popular one. Plus Plumlee's contract is going to change dramatically after next season--his value on his current contract will not likely be higher than it is right now.

I get that acquiring a "rim protector" makes sense because we can hide some of the defensive deficiencies of Lillard and CJ. But it's important to remember (and I think we often forget) that defensive percentage around the rim was actually the Blazer's best defensive area last year...as opposed to the 3pt line and the mid range area. If the Blazers could bring the 3pt and mid range defense up they'd be a vastly improved defensive team.

No doubt, both the Lillard/CJ defense issue and the rim protection advantage are tied to Stotts' ICE scheme where the Big almost never helps the guard and instead stays close to the paint to contest in the high percentage area. That pretty much on it's own creates the scenario above.

It would be interesting to see how Stotts would adjust with a bonafide shotblocker in the paint. Likewise, with an elite perimeter defender on the team at the guard position.

[AllMyNeilOlshey]

Are the Blazers able to resign restricted free agents and trade them?

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Are the Blazers able to resign restricted free agents and trade them?

Yes with a few stipulations, the most major of which is that the RFA cannot have signed an offer sheet with another team.

If you have the time and inclination, the CBA FAQ is a pretty good resource. For this situation:
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q91
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q44

[Wizenheimer]

I get that acquiring a "rim protector" makes sense because we can hide some of the defensive deficiencies of Lillard and CJ. But it's important to remember (and I think we often forget) that defensive percentage around the rim was actually the Blazer's best defensive area last year...as opposed to the 3pt line and the mid range area. If the Blazers could bring the 3pt and mid range defense up they'd be a vastly improved defensive team.

yeah, the Blazers ranked 2nd in the NBA in opponent FG%in the 0-3' zone. They also ranked 6th in rate of opponent FGA's in that zone. HOWEVER, Blazers were 30th, deal last, in opponent FG% in the 3-10' zone, and 20th in rate of opponent FGA's in that zone. I think that's the zone where a strong defensive C might have the biggest impact. Those FG's at the rim can have a high rate of transition opportunities and that might tend to skew percentages

it's pretty weird to look at Portland's opponent FG% rankings from the various shooting zones last year as tracked by BBREF:

0'3'....ranked 2nd
3'-10'....ranked 30th
10'-16'....ranked 4th
16' < 3pt....ranked 30th
3 pt....ranked 28th

obviously, their perimeter defense sucked. Portland was dead last in opponent FG% from 16' and beyond, and #29 had a significant advantage over the Blazers. But if you have a theory why the Blazers could be 4th in the league in the 10-16' zone and the NBA's worst in the two zones on either side, I'd be interested

also, I wish there was a clear-cut definition of "mid-range" shots. I've seen people consider a 5' shot as mid-range and others think a 22' shot is mid-range. I'm to the point where I don't know what people mean when they use that term

[zzaj]

I get that acquiring a "rim protector" makes sense because we can hide some of the defensive deficiencies of Lillard and CJ. But it's important to remember (and I think we often forget) that defensive percentage around the rim was actually the Blazer's best defensive area last year...as opposed to the 3pt line and the mid range area. If the Blazers could bring the 3pt and mid range defense up they'd be a vastly improved defensive team.

yeah, the Blazers ranked 2nd in the NBA in opponent FG%in the 0-3' zone. They also ranked 6th in rate of opponent FGA's in that zone. HOWEVER, Blazers were 30th, deal last, in opponent FG% in the 3-10' zone, and 20th in rate of opponent FGA's in that zone. I think that's the zone where a strong defensive C might have the biggest impact. Those FG's at the rim can have a high rate of transition opportunities and that might tend to skew percentages

it's pretty weird to look at Portland's opponent FG% rankings from the various shooting zones last year as tracked by BBREF:

0'3'....ranked 2nd
3'-10'....ranked 30th
10'-16'....ranked 4th
16' < 3pt....ranked 30th
3 pt....ranked 28th

obviously, their perimeter defense sucked. Portland was dead last in opponent FG% from 16' and beyond, and #29 had a significant advantage over the Blazers. But if you have a theory why the Blazers could be 4th in the league in the 10-16' zone and the NBA's worst in the two zones on either side, I'd be interested

also, I wish there was a clear-cut definition of "mid-range" shots. I've seen people consider a 5' shot as mid-range and others think a 22' shot is mid-range. I'm to the point where I don't know what people mean when they use that term

Yeah, that 10-16' ranking is a little strange...although 10 feet is about where the C ends coverage in the Stotts ICE. So maybe the C is there to bother the shot just enough. Whereas, once a player gets past that 10' mark it leaves the C scrambling and needing help D.

This is all of course a gross over simplification (as well as simply a half-brained theory)...but I agree that a C/PF that can do a better job in that 3-10' space would help. I still think much of the Blazer issues on defense at least start with the scheme that Stotts uses. It puts CJ and Lillard on a defensive iso island.

[Wizenheimer]

The NBA league office has just informed teams that the salary cap this summer will be set at 94 million instead of 92 million

a quick review of Portland's salary and cap-charges

guaranteed salaries:

Anderson Varejao (stretched) $1,984,005
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,680,965
Ed Davis $6,666,667
Damian Lillard $23,736,900
Noah Vonleh $2,751,360
C.J. McCollum $3,219,579
Mason Plumlee $2,328,530
Pat Connaughton $874,636

about 49.24 million

then there are the cap-holds and non-guaranteed salaries:

Maurice Harkless $7,235,148
Allen Crabbe $2,725,003
Brian Roberts $3,711,422
Gerald Henderson $9,000,000
Chris Kaman $6,520,800
Meyers Leonard $7,689,700

Luis Montero $874,636 (non-guaranteed until 1/10/17)
Cliff Alexander $874,636 (non-guaranteed until 6/30/16)

last guys first, for Montero and Alexander, keep in mind that Portland will be assessed a $543,471 roster charge for every open roster slot until 12 are filled. For instance, since the Blazers only have 7 guaranteed contracts, if they renounced Kaman, Henderson & Roberts while maintaining right of first refusal on Meyers, Harkless, and Crabbe, they'd have 10 roster slots filled; that would mean 'keeping' Alexander and Montero, they'd only lose 660K in cap-space since they'd eliminate 2 roster charges. That small amount of cap-space might not matter

anyway, if the Blazers keep their bird rights of Meyers, Harkless, and Crabbe, they'd have a bit under 68 million in cap, leaving them with 26 million in cap-space. If they renounce Meyers, they'd have about 60 million in cap, leaving 34 million in space

Obviously, Portland in unlikely to renounce any free agents until they need the space.

there are some variables that could move cap-space up or down a little. There is the Montero/Alexander factors. if the Blazers trade for a 1st round pick, they'd 'lose' 1-2 million in space; that could be off-set to a large degree by not picking up their option on Alexander. His guarantee date of 6/30 might be a bit awkward

[GreenRiddler]

It makes all those overpaid players from last summer a real bargain now. Aminu among them. To think Harrison Barnes is gonna get maybe 3 times as much per year than Aminu is a bit crazy. Ed too. I does anyone know how much was saved by signing Lillard for 5 years under the old cap VS the new one? I remeber Irving (who was drafted a year before Lillard) lost quite a bit of money for signing his deal under the 2014/15 cap.

Anyways Allen at 12-13 per year isn't looking to shabby IMO. Just wish we locked down more guys. I hope we look at trading for a center who is good right now aswell.

[Norm2953]

How nuts it would be if Harrison Barnes still got a max contract despite his horrible play
in the championship series.

[DusterBuster]

How nuts it would be if Harrison Barnes still got a max contract despite his horrible play
in the championship series.

He will.

[Masterfully]

How nuts it would be if Harrison Barnes still got a max contract despite his horrible play
in the championship series.

He will.

And maybe a dozen other players equally undeserving. Gonna be crazy.

[Norm2953]

I'm looking forward to start of the draft/FA signing period for the rest of the league opens
for business after tomorrow night's game. Should be some juicy rumors prior to June 23
(draft) for I fully expect the Blazers to trade into draft with teams with multiple first
round picks.

[DusterBuster]

I'm looking forward to start of the draft/FA signing period for the rest of the league opens
for business after tomorrow night's game. Should be some juicy rumors prior to June 23
(draft) for I fully expect the Blazers to trade into draft with teams with multiple first
round picks.

Me too. Should be a fun early July.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm looking forward to start of the draft/FA signing period for the rest of the league opens
for business after tomorrow night's game. Should be some juicy rumors prior to June 23
(draft) for I fully expect the Blazers to trade into draft with teams with multiple first
round picks.

I have a hunch that people are underestimating the value teams are placing on draft picks. I also think that the teams sitting on multiple picks are likely looking for consolidation trades. I don't think Portland can be a buyer in that market...they don't really have consolidation assets

Olshey has certainly said things since the season ended it's good to hear. He's talked about the cap-space and the positive momentum Portland has as leverage in free agency. That would indicate he's planning on being aggressive. He may have even used that word

he's also indicated Portland will be getting a draft pick(s)

but talk is cheap. It needs to be backed up with results. I'm hopeful that will happen, but getting some pick in the 40's would be a let-down after Olshey's Paul-Allen-always-has-a-draft-pick speech; it also might forecast a disappointing summer

it's show-me time

[Norm2953]

Portland does have some assets that can be used to enter the draft if they chose. Likely their
best assets are the below markets deals with Aminu, Davis as well Noah Vonleh who's PT
would disappear if Portland made an upgrade to their front court.

[GreenRiddler]

Anybody buy the LBJ can leave Cle rumor from Woj's article? That would affect a lot of teams who are going after guys we would like.

[GreenRiddler]

Portland does have some assets that can be used to enter the draft if they chose. Likely their
best assets are the below markets deals with Aminu, Davis as well Noah Vonleh who's PT
would disappear if Portland made an upgrade to their front court.

I doubt it. Aminu and Ed are too important to get a mid 1st rounder for. Also just traded for Noah. I don't think he'll have mins taken away if we get a big. In all likelihood that big is a Center.

[tester551]

Anybody buy the LBJ can leave Cle rumor from Woj's article? That would affect a lot of teams who are going after guys we would like.

No. He has to go for the repeat. If they dont do it, then LBJ moves on in summer '17

[Wizenheimer]

Anybody buy the LBJ can leave Cle rumor from Woj's article? That would affect a lot of teams who are going after guys we would like.

No. He has to go for the repeat. If they dont do it, then LBJ moves on in summer '17

the way the cap is exploding, his max that season could be over 37 million....

[tester551]

Anybody buy the LBJ can leave Cle rumor from Woj's article? That would affect a lot of teams who are going after guys we would like.

No. He has to go for the repeat. If they dont do it, then LBJ moves on in summer '17

the way the cap is exploding, his max that season could be over 37 million....

That's the other reason for sticking with the Cavs 1 more year. He's 31 now. He'll be 32 at the end of next year, and then sign a 4 or 5-year max deal that will take him to 36 or 37.

[Waynearchetype]

Almost done with a Blazers Salary Calculator webapp. Probably will finish it tonight and rehost it but if you want to play around with it it is mostly functional just needs styled + a calculator for capholds for having too few players and some different verbage for the different kinds of player statuses. I'll have the total so it is constant too instead of having to click update... but lazy right now.

http://codepen.io/wayneculverhall/full/mErvbV/