2016 Draft Thread Part 4

[8on]

Why not trade down and grab Ellenson? There's an easy question for that - he's a worse prospect than either Bender or Chriss.

He has a worse FG%, worse 3p%, he did worse in almost all the athleticism measuring drills.

Why would we give up a top shelf prospect for one that wouldn't be a lottery pick most years?

Because there are three 18/19 year olds. Three cant play defense, two cant rebound, two may never be able to play offense in the NBA, and one can score in year 1.

Basketball IQ is a big deal. It means understanding what the heck is going on around you. If you don't understand the NBA game, you'll get handled by every average NBA defense in the league. You'll be Tyrus Thomas before you know it.

It's a big risk. It's less about his talent then his mind. Can he make the right play at the right time?

That's why, if you can get a future pick or competent role player PLUS a kid that has a back to the basket game at the same age, and a sweet stroke, and has great hands and is fast enough to become a good defender, you do it.

You're making this BBIQ argument like it's something Ellenson innately has. Is it because he's white? If he has such a high BBIQ, why was his TS% worse than the players you're comparing him to? Surely a player with a high "bbiq" would know that taking smart, makeable shots is the key to winning basketball games.

Both Chriss and Bender play nothing like Tyrus Thomas. Both of those guys are way better shooters than Tyrus was when he came out. You're just throwing out hyperbolic comparisons. TBH, Ellenson plays the game far more like Tyrus did than Bender or Chriss does.

Bender and Chriss are better prospects because they have better measurables and more diverse games than Ellenson does. That's a fact. Both of them have sky high ceilings, which is exactly what the Suns need right now.

Measurables? That's not one of my primary concerns. When it comes to Andre Drummond or Ben Simmons, OK. Even Brandon Ingram. If you're going to be a long shooter, it helps to know how long. How good a defender can he be? stuff like that.

But Chriss is, at best, an average college defender, at least based on the Wash/SDSU footage I saw. If he's not a good rebounder, and he's going to rely on dunks and the occasional NBA 3 (obviously harder than the college 3), what do measurables really matter? Can you learn to play defense, box out and rebound, and play the game? If the answer is no to any of those, it'll be tough.

Everything about Dragan Bender tells me he's a bust. I don't know what you guys see in his actual game play that will translate to the NBA.

As for Ellenson, I never said he has IQ, only that Chriss doesn't seem to have it. There was no comparison based on that. He's not that athletic; I don't really care. You don't need a diverse game. All you need is to be really good at one thing. Henry Ellenson can be a really good shooter. He isn't, but he certainly looks like he can be.

8.5 times out of 10, I would rather have the guy who is already really good at one thing (scoring) than two guys who are trying to develop six things.

although I can get excited about Chriss. I just think it's safer to get Ellenson AND something else. If he's 60% the prospect that Chriss is, and we can also come out of it with a veteran, I think that's the best outcome.

[GetYourPHX]

Because there are three 18/19 year olds. Three cant play defense, two cant rebound, two may never be able to play offense in the NBA, and one can score in year 1.

Basketball IQ is a big deal. It means understanding what the heck is going on around you. If you don't understand the NBA game, you'll get handled by every average NBA defense in the league. You'll be Tyrus Thomas before you know it.

It's a big risk. It's less about his talent then his mind. Can he make the right play at the right time?

That's why, if you can get a future pick or competent role player PLUS a kid that has a back to the basket game at the same age, and a sweet stroke, and has great hands and is fast enough to become a good defender, you do it.

You're making this BBIQ argument like it's something Ellenson innately has. Is it because he's white? If he has such a high BBIQ, why was his TS% worse than the players you're comparing him to? Surely a player with a high "bbiq" would know that taking smart, makeable shots is the key to winning basketball games.

Both Chriss and Bender play nothing like Tyrus Thomas. Both of those guys are way better shooters than Tyrus was when he came out. You're just throwing out hyperbolic comparisons. TBH, Ellenson plays the game far more like Tyrus did than Bender or Chriss does.

Bender and Chriss are better prospects because they have better measurables and more diverse games than Ellenson does. That's a fact. Both of them have sky high ceilings, which is exactly what the Suns need right now.

Measurables? That's not one of my primary concerns. When it comes to Andre Drummond or Ben Simmons, OK. Even Brandon Ingram. If you're going to be a long shooter, it helps to know how long. How good a defender can he be? stuff like that.

But Chriss is, at best, an average college defender, at least based on the Wash/SDSU footage I saw. If he's not a good rebounder, and he's going to rely on dunks and the occasional NBA 3 (obviously harder than the college 3), what do measurables really matter? Can you learn to play defense, box out and rebound, and play the game? If the answer is no to any of those, it'll be tough.

Everything about Dragan Bender tells me he's a bust. I don't know what you guys see in his actual game play that will translate to the NBA.

As for Ellenson, I never said he has IQ, only that Chriss doesn't seem to have it. There was no comparison based on that. He's not that athletic; I don't really care. You don't need a diverse game. All you need is to be really good at one thing. Henry Ellenson can be a really good shooter. He isn't, but he certainly looks like he can be.

8.5 times out of 10, I would rather have the guy who is already really good at one thing than two guys who are trying to develop six things.

although I can get excited about Chriss. I just think it's safer to get Ellenson AND something else. If he's 60% the prospect that Chriss is, and we can also come out of it with a veteran, I think that's the best outcome.

I'm just surprised you'd be so concerned about Chriss defensively and not Ellenson. I think DX talks about his defense better than I could.

"The biggest concerns about Ellenson as a NBA prospect revolve around his play on the defensive end. At 6'10, he is somewhat heavy legged stepping out on the perimeter and guarding quicker power forwards, and doesn't show great explosiveness or timing as a rim protector to allow him to anchor a team's defense at the center position.

Ellenson's instincts, awareness and intensity level leaves a lot to be desired defensively, as he's not one to put his body on the line and struggles trying to cover ground on the pick and roll, often looking flat-footed rotating on the back of his heels and getting caught in no man's land. Playing alongside a similarly challenged 6'11 center in a twin-tower lineup didn't do him a lot of favors at the college level, but this is something he'll probably have to deal with at the power forward spot in the NBA as well.

Defensive concerns are likely always going to be a serious issue unless Ellenson makes a real commitment to playing harder and smarter on this end of the floor, something you can't necessarily close the book on considering he's only 19 years old. With that said, the early results thus far haven't been promising. "

[gaspar]

DraftExpress podcast from today: LINK

[Waylay13]

As for Ellenson, I never said he has IQ, only that Chriss doesn't seem to have it. There was no comparison based on that. He's not that athletic; I don't really care. You don't need a diverse game. All you need is to be really good at one thing. Henry Ellenson can be a really good shooter. He isn't, but he certainly looks like he can be.

8.5 times out of 10, I would rather have the guy who is already really good at one thing than two guys who are trying to develop six things.

although I can get excited about Chriss. I just think it's safer to get Ellenson AND something else. If he's 60% the prospect that Chriss is, and we can also come out of it with a veteran, I think that's the best outcome.

My problem with Ellenson is that in every single clip I have seen he looks like someone has nailed his shoes to the floor to how he is moving around. Joe Kline was brought in to battle Shaq but we dont have a Shaq in todays NBA and the game today is much quicker as a whole.

[8on]

You're making this BBIQ argument like it's something Ellenson innately has. Is it because he's white? If he has such a high BBIQ, why was his TS% worse than the players you're comparing him to? Surely a player with a high "bbiq" would know that taking smart, makeable shots is the key to winning basketball games.

Both Chriss and Bender play nothing like Tyrus Thomas. Both of those guys are way better shooters than Tyrus was when he came out. You're just throwing out hyperbolic comparisons. TBH, Ellenson plays the game far more like Tyrus did than Bender or Chriss does.

Bender and Chriss are better prospects because they have better measurables and more diverse games than Ellenson does. That's a fact. Both of them have sky high ceilings, which is exactly what the Suns need right now.

Measurables? That's not one of my primary concerns. When it comes to Andre Drummond or Ben Simmons, OK. Even Brandon Ingram. If you're going to be a long shooter, it helps to know how long. How good a defender can he be? stuff like that.

But Chriss is, at best, an average college defender, at least based on the Wash/SDSU footage I saw. If he's not a good rebounder, and he's going to rely on dunks and the occasional NBA 3 (obviously harder than the college 3), what do measurables really matter? Can you learn to play defense, box out and rebound, and play the game? If the answer is no to any of those, it'll be tough.

Everything about Dragan Bender tells me he's a bust. I don't know what you guys see in his actual game play that will translate to the NBA.

As for Ellenson, I never said he has IQ, only that Chriss doesn't seem to have it. There was no comparison based on that. He's not that athletic; I don't really care. You don't need a diverse game. All you need is to be really good at one thing. Henry Ellenson can be a really good shooter. He isn't, but he certainly looks like he can be.

8.5 times out of 10, I would rather have the guy who is already really good at one thing than two guys who are trying to develop six things.

although I can get excited about Chriss. I just think it's safer to get Ellenson AND something else. If he's 60% the prospect that Chriss is, and we can also come out of it with a veteran, I think that's the best outcome.

I'm just surprised you'd be so concerned about Chriss defensively and not Ellenson. I think DX talks about his defense better than I could.

"The biggest concerns about Ellenson as a NBA prospect revolve around his play on the defensive end. At 6'10, he is somewhat heavy legged stepping out on the perimeter and guarding quicker power forwards, and doesn't show great explosiveness or timing as a rim protector to allow him to anchor a team's defense at the center position.

Ellenson's instincts, awareness and intensity level leaves a lot to be desired defensively, as he's not one to put his body on the line and struggles trying to cover ground on the pick and roll, often looking flat-footed rotating on the back of his heels and getting caught in no man's land. Playing alongside a similarly challenged 6'11 center in a twin-tower lineup didn't do him a lot of favors at the college level, but this is something he'll probably have to deal with at the power forward spot in the NBA as well.

Defensive concerns are likely always going to be a serious issue unless Ellenson makes a real commitment to playing harder and smarter on this end of the floor, something you can't necessarily close the book on considering he's only 19 years old. With that said, the early results thus far haven't been promising. "

I honestly think it matters which game you watch. Pat Connelly thought he moved well laterally in his Suns workout. (By the way, he got a solo workout. I could be completely wrong, but if you're getting a solo workout, I would think it's because you're on the short list for one of the picks.)

[8on]

I would love Ellenson at 13. That would make up for anything else. Chriss and Bender just make me nervous. I think everyone can agree on that. If we trade down, im less nervous. We'll see

[bwgood77]

8.5 times out of 10, I would rather

Your percentages with everything cracks me up.

[saintEscaton]

My thoughts about almost every prospective draftee

[darealjuice]

So I've seen this Washington/Gonzaga full game.

It was only his 4th game in college. Come on.....surely he gets a bigger learning curve than that.

Check out Washington/San Diego State in March: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzSp8AMd04E

much better defensively

I watched that game as well, I definitely saw the same habbits as I saw in the first game. Really silly fouls, biting on every pump fake,really awkward post defense, just kinda floating around, super late on LOTS of rotations. There was never one time that I said "oh ok this is the Chriss everyone is talking about".

Just my opinion though doesnt mean a whole lot.

I'm not seeing much of the same thing; I actually liked a bit of what I saw from Chriss in this game on a rewatch, and could definitely see improvement between the Gonzaga and SDSU games. I had forgotten just how fast that Washington team played too, they were running around like chickens with their head cut off a lot of the game; Andrew Andrews and Dejounte Murray constantly tried to drive into multiple people and took some very ill advised shots.

The refs were absolutely whistle happy, especially in the first half. I think an argument could easily be made against his first 2 fouls, he literally didn't even touch the offensive player on his 3rd or 4th foul, and probably the only one I saw 100% being a foul was his 5th. I think his foul troubles might be a little less significant when he gets into a more physical league without awful college referees, but obviously that's just speculation.

Defensively, they played a lot of the game in a pretty helter skelter flat 3-2 zone where he was charged with both picking up the guard at the top of the key and crashing down on the short corner when the ball went to the wing/corner, which explains a bit of his late rotations and floating around because that's a good bit of ground to cover. He did a good job containing guards at the top of the key on the drive and contesting jump shots without fouling when he was in that position. When they bumped him to the bottom at the beginning of the second half, he did get caught getting pinned down low a couple times, but he was very rarely not on the perimeter on defense in this game unless both teams were scrambling outside of the first couple minutes in the second half. When they were in man to man defense, he did a great job containing guards on pick and rolls and forcing them to give the ball up or take a difficult, contested shot. There were 2 or 3 plays where he tried to switch on an off ball screen that ended up with both him and the original defender following the cutter, but it's difficult to know if it was his mistake or the other man's because they seemed to have him switching screens all over the court. His post defense is definitely a work in progress, but his ability to switch out on the perimeter and stick with guards is pretty valuable, and I don't consider it a deal breaker with how little Power Forwards bang in the post these days.

On offense, he did a good job moving around and trying to set screens in what looked like a very free flowing offense, but he needs to work on actually getting wide on his screens and opening up and sealing his defender on the roll/pop. Too many times he would set a wimpy ball screen and just float out to the perimeter, although I think Murray and Andrews attacking every single time they had the ball made it difficult for him to have enough space and time to roll. He ran the floor well when he was ahead of the ball and did a good job trailing the ball on the break when he wasn't. I saw he was blowing by Malik Pope with his quick first step when he'd get the ball on the perimeter or in the mid-range, and had pretty good footwork when they had him in the post, but he was not finishing well around the rim in this game and even missed what should have been a routine dunk down low once. I thought he did a decent job of working for position on the block too, but he didn't see too much of the ball there because defenders could sag off of Dejounte Murray and discourage passes down low. His ball handling definitely needs work too, but he shouldn't be doing much more than driving in a straight line to the bucket from the mid-range in the NBA. Honestly, I don't think Washington's offense in the half court was good for him, he was too raw this year to be able to play in a free flowing, pretty much completely unstructured offense and it showed with him floating around without a purpose on offense here and there, even though he did a pretty good job producing for a freshman.

It's obvious that he has plenty of areas that he needs to improve on, most notably defending down low, rotations off the ball on defense, and boxing out his man on the shot instead of watching it in the air, but I think there's a lot of upside with his athleticism, ability to step out and play both on the perimeter on both offense and defense, and offensive skill set. A lot of what he needs work on is the fundamentals, which makes sense for a guy who only played Football until high school, but with good coaching I think he can come along fine. He plays a lot like a 3 in a 4's body, which I don't think is necessarily a bad thing with how perimeter-oriented the game is on offense now. I still have Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, and Jamal Murray ahead of Marquese Chriss on my big board, but I think he's just as good, if not better of a project than Jaylen Brown is. Definitely a lot of bust potential if you can't drill the fundamentals into his head though.

[bwgood77]

My thoughts about almost every prospective draftee

Have you gotten more down on Bender? It seems there have been quite a few good pieces on him lately demonstrating just how valuable his length and quickness could be.

[NavLDO]

So I've seen this Washington/Gonzaga full game.

It was only his 4th game in college. Come on.....surely he gets a bigger learning curve than that.

Check out Washington/San Diego State in March: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzSp8AMd04E

much better defensively

I watched that game as well, I definitely saw the same habbits as I saw in the first game. Really silly fouls, biting on every pump fake,really awkward post defense, just kinda floating around, super late on LOTS of rotations. There was never one time that I said "oh ok this is the Chriss everyone is talking about".

Just my opinion though doesnt mean a whole lot.

And I know these are 'highlights' but showed some good hustle, but oh my goodness, those 'hops'!

So, 2nd to last game of his career, 1st Rd of NIT, and slashed 27/11 with 1 BLK, 1 STL on 11-17 shooting, 5-7 FTs, and 6 of his 11 RB's were DReb.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVdSqMQr-5k

Then, 1st Rd of PAC-12 Tourney, he slashed 18/10, with 9 beig DReb. Late Feb against Cal and he had 5 DReb of 7 total. Game before that had 6 DReb out of 10 total against Colorado--both good teams.

Also late Feb had 4 of 5 TRBs being DRebs; earlier in Feb against AZ, had 4 of 7 TRBs being DReb. So my point is, as the season progressed, his % of TRBs were more DReb than OReb.

We all understand he's a ways off, but it appears that he did stat to pick it up on DReb as the season went on.

[saintEscaton]

My thoughts about almost every prospective draftee

Have you gotten more down on Bender? It seems there have been quite a few good pieces on him lately demonstrating just how valuable his length and quickness could be.

He is definitely intriguing and we would be pretty dumb to defy conventional wisdom passing on him. I don't see KD Lite. I see him as a high end Swiss Army role player (so I get the Dray comps) he could definitely play the small ball 5. If he doesn't develop an elite niche me may end up a jack of all master of none mechanical faceup big. But he has shown a promising feel for the game at such a young age unlike Len

[bwgood77]

So I've seen this Washington/Gonzaga full game.

It was only his 4th game in college. Come on.....surely he gets a bigger learning curve than that.

Check out Washington/San Diego State in March: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzSp8AMd04E

much better defensively

I watched that game as well, I definitely saw the same habbits as I saw in the first game. Really silly fouls, biting on every pump fake,really awkward post defense, just kinda floating around, super late on LOTS of rotations. There was never one time that I said "oh ok this is the Chriss everyone is talking about".

Just my opinion though doesnt mean a whole lot.

And I know these are 'highlights' but showed some good hustle, but oh my goodness, those 'hops'!

So, 2nd to last game of his career, 1st Rd of NIT, and slashed 27/11 with 1 BLK, 1 STL on 11-17 shooting, 5-7 FTs, and 6 of his 11 RB's were DReb.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVdSqMQr-5k

Then, 1st Rd of PAC-12 Tourney, he slashed 18/10, with 9 beig DReb. Late Feb against Cal and he had 5 DReb of 7 total. Game before that had 6 DReb out of 10 total against Colorado--both good teams.

Also late Feb had 4 of 5 TRBs being DRebs; earlier in Feb against AZ, had 4 of 7 TRBs being DReb. So my point is, as the season progressed, his % of TRBs were more DReb than OReb.

We all understand he's a ways off, but it appears that he did stat to pick it up on DReb as the season went on.

Yes, I remember posting those numbers during the tourney so he obviously brought down the rebounds in that last game. I am concerned with the rebounding but think part of the reason for low defensive rebounding numbers was he often guarded guys on the perimeter due to his athleticism, and we've seen how important it is to have a forward who can guard a guy like Curry on a switch (same reason I like Bender). I'm sure Curry would fool Chriss quite a bit initially but he obviously has the athleticism to keep up with him.

[NavLDO]

^ 0% chance imo.

it depends on how crazy McD is about Bender or Chriss. do you think he's sold on either of them?

why not trade down and grab Ellenson? let somebody else take Jamal Murray.

I think that's a tricky 'game' in trading down. What if we trade down to 7th (+ 19th overall) for 4th overall, as some have suggested, and Ellenson is the target, and NOLA decides...meh, time for some new young blood at Stretch 4, and they take Ellenson? As fans, we all just say "well, you take your next best option", but if McD REALLY likes Ellenson (and I'm not saying he does), and gambles and loses??

I say, if McD has 2-3 guys that he likes about equally, then fine, but if he REALLY likes a prospect-a specific prospect...like, a lot more than any others, just take that guy at 4 and be done. We'll all grumble, but McD will have gotten his 'man', right or wrong.

[darealjuice]

This is stupid and probably means nothing, but Marquese Chriss and Dejounte Murray both follow Coach Watson on Twitter now lol. Watson followed back Murray too.

Wow I need it it to be Thursday so I can stop looking into stupid **** like this.

[NavLDO]

I'm curious what will happen with Caris LaVert after his injury history the past 2 years. He's arguably a lottery talent when he's on the court, but has only played like half the games in the last 2 years. He can definitely play though, and if he can stay healthy in the NBA, then he'll be a steal in the second round. Considering the flexibility we have owning 4 picks this year, I wouldn't be too mad if we took a shot at him with the 34th pick and hope that our medical staff can bring him along.

Agreed. Especially for those who love Buddy. This guy has very similar numbers at 44.6% from 3, 54.6% from 2 and far better at assists with 4.9 per game against only 1.7 turnovers. Also is 6'7.

I've been tootin' his horn for a couple of weeks now--completely agree! LaVert at 34 over Hield at 4--all day, every day. He's like a 'skinny' and 'poor man's' Valentine--can play 1 through 3, if needed; the man can shoot. His Wingspan is a bit disappointing for a 6'7" guy, but I'll live with it at 34.

[weslo1812]

Here is a pretty fair article on Chriss I think.

https://theringer.com/marquese-chriss-nba-draft-2016-eab2962355fb#.slo4zpf82

The biggest things I'd wanna find out about him is his passion for the game, work ethic and is there a genuine desire to improve and become better? Basicallyare his heart and mind really in the game, or he just gonna be using the NBA for a paycheck. If he's got the heart, the desire and the work ethic then he can become a star. But if not, then he's basically gonna be a big wasted ball of potential.

[bwgood77]

I'm curious what will happen with Caris LaVert after his injury history the past 2 years. He's arguably a lottery talent when he's on the court, but has only played like half the games in the last 2 years. He can definitely play though, and if he can stay healthy in the NBA, then he'll be a steal in the second round. Considering the flexibility we have owning 4 picks this year, I wouldn't be too mad if we took a shot at him with the 34th pick and hope that our medical staff can bring him along.

Agreed. Especially for those who love Buddy. This guy has very similar numbers at 44.6% from 3, 54.6% from 2 and far better at assists with 4.9 per game against only 1.7 turnovers. Also is 6'7.

I've been tootin' his horn for a couple of weeks now--completely agree! LaVert at 34 over Hield at 4--all day, every day. He's like a 'skinny' and 'poor man's' Valentine--can play 1 through 3, if needed; the man can shoot. His Wingspan is a bit disappointing for a 6'7" guy, but I'll live with it at 34.

Yeah, I don't think there should be that much separation between players like him and Hield. I wonder if the Celtics had him do the 3's out of 100 test. You'd think they'd take a look at him with all their picks and desperate need for shooting.

[darealjuice]

18 players invited to the Green Room on Draft Day thus far: Wade Baldwin IV, Dragan Bender, Jaylen Brown, Marquese Chriss, Deyonta Davis, Kris Dunn, Henry Ellenson, Buddy Hield, Brandon Ingram, Skal Labissiere, Timothe Luwawu, Dejounte Murray, Jamal Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Malachi Richardson, Domantas Sabonis, Ben Simmons, and Denzel Valentine.

[DirtyDez]

My main issue with Chriss is that he sucks at basketball. Other than that I absolutely love him.