Lots of youth at the top, which should come as no surprise. All the seniors rest at the bottom of the aggregate rating.
The tallest prospect is also our top guy, Poeltl. Diallo has the most freakish wingspan (followed by Prince Ibeh), but it’s only enough to make up for his height. Sabonis has a case of the T-Rex arms, which is part of the reason he’s considered a PF prospect by many and not a C.
Offense
Poeltl is the 3rd highest scorer and has the highest TS%, quite impressive. Sabonis also has an elite combination of volume and efficiency. Shawn Long, Diamond Stone and A.J. Hammons all scored a lot.
There are lots of non-scorers here. Skal Labissiere, Chinanu Onuaku, Deyonta Davis, Cheick Diallo, Stephen Zimmerman and finally Prince Ibeh all scored on pretty low volume, Ibeh incredibly so. Skal, Zimmerman and Ibeh combine low volume with bad efficiency. Henry Ellenson also had poor efficiency.
This class of centers has 3 fairly capable passers: Poeltl, Ochefu and Onuaku. It also includes a number of stunningly poor passers, particularly Diallo and Ibeh.
Ibeh and Diallo predictably have awful TOV%s, as does Zimmerman. Sabonis and Onuaku have high TOV%s too though. Onuaku has the second highest TOV% in fact.
Diamond Stone is unusual in pairing an awful AST% with a great TOV%. This is normal for spot-up shooters, but for a high-volume low-post scorer, this speaks to his skill in taking care of the ball.
Long, Onuaku and Ibeh are the best offensive rebounders, but Long did so at a mid-major unlike the two guys behind him.
Overall, Poeltl unsurprisingly has elite offensive impact. The guys at the bottom of the list were all guys you could expect to be there – guys who scored on low volume, poor efficiency, just about never passed the ball and turned it over a lot – except for Damian Jones. It’s likely that he was simply using more offensive possessions than he should have at Vandy, rather than there being something horribly wrong with him that the numbers didn’t catch.
Penetration
AJ Hammons blows away the competition when it comes to finishing, hitting nearly 90% of his shots at the rim. At the bottom, we already knew that Zimmerman and Ibeh were inept offensively, but Ellenson is supposed to be a good offensive player.
Hammons’ finishing is made less impressive by the low %FGA at rim. That Skal and Ellenson took many shots away from the hoop is expected, but Hammons? Poeltl knows that he has limited range and thus made sure to take his shots as close to the rim as possible, getting a stunning 85% of his shot attempts at the rim.
Long and Ellenson are the only bigs who had more unassisted buckets than assisted buckets, which should do something to explain their scoring efficiency. In contrast, less than a quarter of Diallo’s made shots at the rim were unassisted, indicating that he can’t or doesn’t create his own shots.
Finally, we look at free-throw rate. Ibeh is at the top undoubtedly because he shoots about 40% from the line, and is a magnet for fouls. He’s followed by Poeltl and Long. Davis had the worst free throw rate, an incredible .19FTA/2PA, despite taking 61.3% of his shots at the rim. Onuaku and Skal have the next worst FTA/2PA, but neither of them take even half of their shots at the rim.
Shooting
Very few of these guys are big time jump shooters, but I’ve added more information to see if any of these guys maybe could develop into shooters, maybe from inside the ark rather than 3.
Hammons had the best 3P% this year, but on a tiny number of shots, and is 26% for his career on 23 shots. Sabonis was the next best, on just 14 total attempts, which all came late in the season. He seemed to add it to his game and only become confident enough to try them down the stretch. Given his good FT%, he could become a 3 point shooter in the NBA. Zimmerman shot the next best, but not well, and given his low volume and mediocre free throw shooting, he has a ways to go before becoming a threat from deep in the NBA. Long and Ellenson are the only two centers to shoot a significant volume of shots from 3, and both shot poorly this year. Ellenson has a reputation as a shooter and shot well from the line, and thus has potential. Long shot well from 3 when Elfrid Payton was feeding him looks, but since Payton left, he has taken more shots off the dribble and his shot has deteriorated. With a real PG setting him up again in the NBA, he could easily return to form. He is 34% from 3 for his career, which is excellent for a center.
Since we aren’t just interested in 3s, I’ve included 2 point jumper data from hoop-math. The problem with these numbers is that ‘jumper’ means ‘any shot more than 3 feet from the basket’ – so plenty of hook shots, runners and floaters are included. Still, combining this info with FT% and a little film, we might be able to get some idea of who could be a threat from the mid-range.
Sadly, the numbers don’t seem all that helpful, and we can mostly go on reputation here. Skal and Davis are known to have a jumper in their game, and aside from a low volume of shots there are no red flags. Stone and Poeltl didn’t shoot well on 2 point ‘jumpers’ and are known as low-post guys anyways. Guys who suck at the line are unlikely to be very reliable jump shooters.
Passing
Ochefu just edges out Onuaku for most assists. They are followed by 3 guys who managed at least 2 assists per40 pace adjusted: Poeltl, Sabonis and Ellenson. None of these guys are really prolific passers, but they are capable enough for their passing to become a weapon in the NBA. Some prospects couldn’t break 1 assist though. Skal, Ibeh and Diallo are no surprise, but they’re joined Stone, who was a high-usage scorer. With the ball in his hands as often as it was, you would expect him to do a little better.
Only Ochefu got more assists than turnovers this year, but Poeltl comes very close to breaking even. All of the guys who couldn’t beat 1 assist also couldn’t manage and A/TO better than .4. Ibeh and Diallo are exceptionally bad from this group, not even maintaining and A/TO better than .1.
Davis, Ellenson and Stone had the 3 lowest TOV%s. Davis’ is low mostly due to his low-usage role, but Ellenson and Stone were scorers. Stone’s TOV% is really impressive in light of his usage and how little he passed the ball. Despite rarely passing and holding the ball a lot to create in the post, he didn’t turn the ball over. That’s a very valuable skill.
Diallo continues to impress in a bad way with his group-worst TOV%. Zimmerman and Ibeh also have turnover issues despite also rarely shooting or passing. Turnover issues for a high-usage guy like Sabonis are a bit easier to explain, and Sabonis will have to clean those turnovers up. Onuaku is TO prone for a guy who passes so much, so he’ll need to clean that up as he develops.
Defense
Ochefu, Onuaku and Diallo all managed more than 1 steal per40 pace adjusted, very good for centers. Jones, Hammons and Davis all have low steal rates themselves, but steals aren’t nearly as important for centers as they are for perimeter players.
Diallo and Ibeh are prospects almost entirely on the basis of their shot-blocking, so it should come as no surprise that they are the top shot-blockers in this class. They are followed by Davis, Hammons and Skal. Ellenson and Sabonis struggled to block many shots. Sabonis has tiny arms, so that’s expected. Sabonis’ poor rim protection is his biggest issue as a potential center prospect.
Long and Sabonis were very impressive on the defensive glass, although it is worth noting that both played for mid-majors. Skal is the worst defensive rebounder, due to his softness. 6 guard prospects got more defensive rebounds than Skal. Stone and Ibeh also got few defensive rebounds for a center.
Diallo stands out in Net DRtg, but all of his numbers are untrustworthy due to the tiny minutes total he played. Onuaku is the next best by this measure, followed by Ochefu and Hammons. Sabonis’ Net DRtg is very respectable for a center that can’t protect the rim, likely on the strength of his rebounding. Davis and Ibeh have somewhat poor NetDRtgs for elite shot-blockers, perhaps their relatively low DRB have something to do with this?
While none of these guys were net-negative defenders, some do come close. Stone rates as nearly a net-neutral and clearly is not going to be anchoring any defenses in the NBA soon. Damien Jones is also pretty poor for a C, and Skal is quite bad for a guy who blocks so many shots. Ellenson and Poeltl are not terrible defensive players, but they will not be featured on any All-Defensive teams.
Overall
Jakub Poeltl – He’s the top center prospect for a good reason. Poeltl is a bit of a savant on offense. He doesn’t have Hakeem-like moves in the post, nor Admiral-like athletic ability, and he isn’t orchestrating the offense with his passing. He keeps things simple and doesn’t make mistakes. In the post, he has great footwork and sticks to hook shots with either hand with great touch. He creates enough space to easily knock down his shots, but not so much that he avoids drawing fouls. When doubles comes his way, he stays calm and finds the open guy. He cuts smartly, is a good roll man, and generally is nimble enough to find a good look. Defensively he competes and is as light on his feet as he is on offense, so he’s not some stiff who’ll get blown by on the perimeter. However, he isn’t a great jumper and has short arms for his height, so he isn’t that great at the center’s primary job, protecting the rim. Still, he is disciplined and good enough at it that he shouldn’t be a liability.
Daniel Ochefu – Offensively, he’s nothing special as a scorer, just competent enough for a center. His big value comes from his best-in-class passing. He cut down on his turnovers a lot and became a real threat as a passer out of the post. He doesn’t have the moves or anything to score much from the post, or command the double teams that make open looks easy, but passing out of the post is definitely his best role on offense. He certainly isn’t going to be facing up much or shooting many jumpers. Defensively he’s a very good rebounder and shot-blocker, but he is not flexible or agile. Nova always had him just sag back on pick and rolls because he just can’t handle speedy perimeter players. In the modern NBA with all of the switching and small ball this is a killer flaw. I don't think that he will be able to survive the transition to the NBA because of this.
Domantas Sabonis – He’s a scoring machine, posting up, cutting, getting offensive rebounds, and even a little facing up and jump shooting. He hits his free throws and is a decent passer, although he does have an issue with turnovers. He basically has a complete offensive game in that he can do a little bit of everything at least decently, and most things well. His big problem is defense. Although yes, he did have a respectable Net DRtg, and yes he dominated the defensive glass, he offers no rim protection whatsoever. He just doesn’t have the reach or lift to block shots. I don’t see an NBA team getting away with a traditional big man who can’t actually protect the rim at all, so in my opinion Sabonis only makes it in this league if he’s playing PF or is playing next to an actual shot-blocker. However, although he isn’t really immobile, he is not exactly fast for a big man, so he may struggle to guard perimeter-oriented bigs or the pick and roll, and if he can’t play either position on defense he’s going to struggle to find minutes.
Shawn Long – Long scored a lot, but he is not some skilled post-up guy. He dominated the offensive glass, and when he wasn’t feasting on the glass, he was shooting jump shots all the way out to three point range. And he had to do all of this essentially with no help from his guards (the team’s assist leader had just 3 per game). The total lack of help goes a long way to explain why his efficiency was so mediocre. The more important thing is his shooting. Bigs who can space the floor are a big commodity, and Long is the only guy with a real track record shooting 3s. Although he was terrible this year, and his form is not perfect, he’s 34% for his career, and I blame his guards for not giving him any help. When Elfrid Payton was setting him up, Long his 42.3% of his 3s. With quality guard play he could go back to knocking down 3s again. On the other side of the floor, Long has a few issues though. He was a capable shot-blocker, but he doesn’t have great length or leaping ability, relying on timing to get his blocks. He didn’t display great mobility, sticking close to the basket. It’s questionable that he’ll have the speed to perhaps play PF or the rim-protection to adequately play center.
A.J. Hammons – Hammons has always had all of the ability to play, but only in his senior year did he put it all together and play with the consistent effort and energy to realize his potential and be a really good player. First and foremost, Hammons is a very efficient post-up scorer. He has a solid and decently diverse set of moves to score with and has finally learned how to avoid turning the ball over. Next, he finally turned his jump shot into a regular feature of his game, solid from mid-range and even taking and hitting a handful of 3 pointers. He can’t really pass the ball all that much, but hey, no one’s perfect. Defensively, Hammons has always had good instincts and used his fantastic size to block lots of shots, but this year he really put in full effort and started to get it done clearing the defensive glass. He also is surprisingly mobile for a dude of his size and strength. He isn’t going to be guarding the perimeter like the real mobile bigs, but he seems to have the quickness to hack it in the NBA playing center. Although he is old, now that he’s finally trying hard on both ends all the time he really is a fantastic center.
Deyonta Davis – His offense game is quite basic. He has zero post ability. He does have great hands and is a quick jumper, so he’s a great lob target, and he has shown off a bit of a jump shot. However, his FT% is pretty low for someone who’s supposed to have a mid-range jumper, so we can’t count on that translating yet. The interest in Davis really comes from the other end. He has the quickness to stay in front of power forwards, and although he is a bit small for a center, he has the athleticism to play the position. He blocked a ton of shots, on ball and helping off his man, using his fast jump and great instincts. He rebounded the ball just well enough, but he isn’t very strong right now, so he can get pushed around. He also has issues with fouls and simply being a really inexperienced guy going purely on instinct. Davis needs some seasoning before he can be a great player, but he has the potential to be a great low usage defensive big man.
Diamond Stone – Stone is one of those outdated big men. He’s a very talented low-post scorer who takes great care of the ball and can hit his free throws, and even is good on the offensive glass. However, he didn’t take many jump shots and he never passes the ball. Greg Monroe managed to get a good contract not just on the basis of his scoring but because he could facilitate from the post, and Stone cannot do that. Stone also didn’t get to the line much, like Al Jefferson. Defensively, although his steal and block rates are solid, his defensive rebounding is poor, and he has the worst Net DRtg of any center prospect, nearly rating as a net neutral. He basically wasn’t trying hard enough on that end, even getting pushed around sometimes despite being really strong. He didn’t show the intensity or instincts that you want from a center. He only has average mobility too, so he has little room for error. An efficient iso-scorer and rebounder could find work in the NBA as a center, but not while playing terrible defense.
Henry Ellenson – Ellenson came in with some Chris Bosh comparisons, a face-up big with a 3 point shot. He disappointed a bit though. He took on a big offensive role, creating more of his own shots than most at the rim, but he didn’t finish well. His % from 3 was poor, but he was solid from the line and mid-range as you would expect for a guy who can in fact shoot. His passing was above average, nothing special, but he did do a very good job avoiding turnovers. Still, his overall efficiency was garbage because he didn’t get to the rim nearly often enough, and he collected the fewest offensive rebounds per40 among centers. As a role player, being a jump-shooting big is fine, but as the number one option he had a really muted offensive impact. Still, he can certainly handle the ball well for a big man and his jump shot looks very promising. Defensively, he rebounded well enough and the combine proved that he has the size to play center, but he isn’t nearly a good enough rim protector right now. Unfortunately, he also looked a step slow on defense at PF. He may be a tweener defensively and that’s a bad position to be in.
Damien Jones – The appeal of him is obvious. He scored a lot and he has the athleticism and mobility to do everything on defense. Problem is that he just isn’t good at defense. He just doesn’t have the instincts or the feel. Even if he did, he wasn’t playing with the toughness or intensity to be a good defensive anchor. This is reflected in his relatively low defensive rebounding and his poor Net DRtg. On offense, his coach force-fed him looks which did neither him nor his team many favors, and his skill level in the post is not something to write home about. His lack of feel shows up again, and he takes shots than he shouldn’t, like a few jumpers that he can’t hit at all. His athletic package – size, strength, length, lateral quickness, fast jump – all had people drooling earlier, but that he as a junior still hasn’t made much of it is very disappointing.
Stephen Zimmerman – Like Jones, it is easy to see the appeal. Zimmerman is a young, mobile big who came into college with a reputation as a shooter. However he had a terrible season. He shot poorly at the rim (only C below 60FG% at the rim), from mid-range, from 3 and the free throw line (okay for a C, but not good for a guy who is supposed to shoot). He didn’t take many shots, and struggled with turnovers. He was far too weak to operate in the post, and didn’t show any advanced skill while there either. Defensively he seems at least competent, with an okay number blocks, solid defensive rebounding and a decent Net DRtg. Still, he doesn’t have the quickness to really be a great defender, nor the explosiveness to be a great rim-protector, and again he gets pushed around because he’s so thin. He is still very young, and I suppose if he does develop into a knock down shooter, he’d become a useful player, but he has an enormous amount of development to do before he’s a rotation player.
Prince Ibeh – Ibeh is pretty straightforward. He’s so utterly incompetent on offense that it boggles the mind, and he can’t even stay on the floor for very long because he’s an enormous foul machine. This is after 4 years in college and he’s still clueless. He does have freakish length and crashed the offensive glass well, but seriously, he’s not a real prospect.
