Fan Guess: The Next Big Move

[dsg2021]

As a life long Magic fan here, I love to strategize and have as much fun doing it as every other fellow fan on here. So this post is what (I believe)* the Magic might be thinking of in terms of 1) the strategy with the overall roster, and, what (I think)* the Magic might do in terms of their 2) next big move this summer.

And I need feedback on all of this too; scouting thoughts, roster fit, chemistry fit! Would it be a good move?? Some people here may have seen this player more than others! Not only that, but as a hometown kid, I think there's even a few of us here who have known him personally at one point or another!!

Spoiler:

Chandler Parsons

This summer, I bet the Magic will secretly target this Forward as their No. 1 priority in free agency, and I think a lot of fans would love to have him on board too.

He is the hometown kid after all. A phenomenal passer, a versatile player on both ends of the floor because of his 6'10 height and high IQ, and a certified 3 pt bomber. He reminds me of Hedo Turkoglu a little bit, and that's a really great thing. The dude can P/R very good, has a deadly floater, and uses his height advantageously in passing and shooting.

On the risk front, a report has said that multiple doctors like his prognosis in having a long and productive career. Plus he is not an athleticism-based player. He is in his prime at 27, coming into the league as an older rookie, and again, a non athleticism-based player which always bodes well for a longer prime and career.

He is just one of those guys like Draymond Green. People were not sure he could translate to the NBA without explosiveness, so he falls to the 2nd round as well, and then turns out translating very well into the league. It's just, whereas Draymond is a 2 way monster, Parsons is more of a Swiss Army knife offensive player. But his D will be very solid I bet, because he has height, lateral quickness and the same kind of high IQ as Vooch and Fournier to play a great team system of defense, covered by some more dangerous defenders such as Iblocka, Air Gordon, and Payton.

A Potential "2016-2017 Magic" 7(-9) Man Playoffs Rotation:
Payton / Mario / (Watson)
Fournier / Mario / (Watson)
Parsons / Gordon / Mario
Ibaka / Gordon / Parsons
Vooch / Ibaka / (Dedmon)

With this roster, I also incorporated basic cap space gymnastics into a projection analysis; for future seasons of team planning. This projection essentially accounts for large max type deals on Fournier, Parsons, and a full max on Iblocka; all while still having 1 max space for the mega 2017 free agency class, where I projected KD would also be part of already, (in a Speculation post like 1 month-ish ago). This class also conveniently contains All Star PGs Russell Westbrook and CP3 (among many other stars like Paul George), in case EP can't show flashes in such a nice lineup this year.

Furthermore, the FO has shown they can flip high priced players too, for more flexible cap space maintenance yet again. And on this line of thought, this is the most realistic way I also see us nabbing Mike Conley this summer, if the Magic wanted to go ahead and be gangbusters in free agency this summer. I wouldn't blame them based on how weak the East is; they would be strategizing like Dallas, and Golden State, has been the past few years -- get win now players but keep big cap space around the corner in a couple of seasons (or with a couple of big trades for cap). Plus, it pays to remember again how well Orlando has seemingly been keeping big cap space open somehow, always, no matter what players it involves.

To further illustrate my line of thinking -- what the Magic have done this past year, is taken two players due big amounts of cap next summer, Oladipo and Harris, and erased them.

Now, the Magic have two cheap years on Air Gordon, Payton, and Napier, three cheap years on Super Mario, and four cheap years on Zimmerman, before their respective restricted free agencies.

Playing with the longer rookie deals over Dipo and Harris has given the Magic a lot of cap space for the next two years. And I haven't even considered hometown/winning discounts, something Vooch has already done once, and something I wouldn't be terribly surprised if a few other Magic players do based on their personalities, such as EP and Fournier. I mean, it'll probably take 4-5 year deals, with trade kicker, poison pill, and player options built in, but I can see a few Magic players discounting a few mill from that base of an offer. Meaning, it lets Orlando squeeze in one more big free agent someday, when it looks like they couldn't (easily).

Meanwhile, Orlando is taking a longer look at some youngsters like Aaron, Mario, and EP, mainly, but also Fournier and Vucevic, that they probably see more potential with than what they have seen (and projected) out of Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo.

That is a very sneaky and clever idea. These first three youngsters are all younger, taller, more athletic, and more cheaper. And fans here are often on the hype train with one of those three names (well, if we included EP's better rookie season moments too).

And interestingly enough, the last time Orlando and Dallas locked horns against each other in free agency (a few years ago), Dallas tried to pry restricted free agent Marcin Gortat away from Orlando, just as Orlando was extending its cap on prying unrestricted free agent Brandon Bass from Dallas. The common thought was that Orlando would probably let Gortat go because of the cap space ramifications and another big man already on the Magic, Dwight Howard. As most of us already know, Orlando signed Bass, then matched and kept Gortat away from Dallas too. Gortat proved to be a phenomenal big man for us, even with him having to play with Dwight on the roster too.

With Dallas' reported interested in signing our restricted free agent, Fournier, could Orlando be doing it all over again with both Parsons and Fournier? (Feel free to insert Mario and Aaron for Dwight in this analogy too)

Sources:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14871511/dallas-mavericks-scared-losing-chandler-parsons-offseason
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/os-hs-chandler-parsons-sponsors-team-20160316-story.html
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/orlando-magic-team-salary/

Scouting:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp8BhA8khvI[/youtube]

The Hype!:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4TdioDUVV4[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_Wn2JLKkHk[/youtube]

[Tayswagzzz]

Nice post! Add Conley and we are contenders in the east.

Conley
Fournier
Parsons
Ibaka
Vuc

Have a deadly bench with Payton/Hezonja/Gordon.

Like you said, we pay big now, but put ourselves in a position where we can still sign our young potential stars Payton/Hezonja/Gordon and/or reload with a new FA group or players through trade in the future.

Playoffs is a huge want from the FO and fans this season, I could easily see us hitting the cap to guarantee that.


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[Skin]

Hate to be a debbie downer, but somebody else said this earlier today and it stuck in my head....

"Anything that further decreases the amount of time that Aaron Gordon sees on the court is a bad move."

Already, Ibaka's addition has affected Gordon's playing time. Anything more and we might as well seek out trade opportunities to get him off the team. At what point does Vogel get upset? I mean he keeps talking about how he took this team because of our young talent who he thinks can turn the corner. Meanwhile, the PG and C positions for us continue to hamper the team. So long as we have a non shooting PG and a C that can't defend, this team will be pretenders... and I would hate for us to have a summer where we ignored both positions. I wish more people recognized our real weaknesses.

I noticed you had Hezonja as our #2 PG... is that something other people are seriously thinking will happen here too? Not saying it wouldn't work... in fact I love out of the box thinking like that, but I want to know if that's something we could realistically grasp onto.

[orlando1214]

I think the Magic will sign Parsons as well. He's probably the best wing player the Magic can get because of his obvious ties to Orlando. I really don't think the Magic will be going after DeRozan like the wiretap article says, I dont see him leaving Toronto but even if he did I think he would go home to LA who can obviously afford him. I also don't see Batum leaving the Hornets. Parson is a good player and adds shooting, however his injury history is a bit of a concern. However, with AG on the team, I think it's alright to take a risk on a guy like Parsons. AG will most likely split time between SF and PF, but if Parsons goes down, he can spend more time at SF.

I also think Rob will go hard at Mike Conley but I'm not sure if the Magic will get him. I do think playing in the East will help the Magic though since I think the other two big contenders for him will be Memphis and Dallas. I've already said why I think he would be a great fit in other threads, so I really hope the Magic can get him.

Depending on what happens with those two, I think they just fill out the rest of the roster with cheaper signings and of course bring Evan back. I dont see them going after Horford or any other expensive big men like some around here want.

[dsg2021]

I noticed you had Hezonja as our #2 PG... is that something other people are seriously thinking will happen here too? Not saying it wouldn't work... in fact I love out of the box thinking like that, but I want to know if that's something we could realistically grasp onto.

It might not be as out of the box as it sounds like on paper. I thought of it quickly because of how I envision any three of Fournier, Hezonja and Parsons initiating a play or breakdown on any given offensive possession.

While I'm being optimistic right now with that initiator role for Mario this summer, it is not something both Fournier and Parsons have already shown before.

After all, with that kind of lineup, it could be as simple as feeding it into the post for Vooch, Ibaka, or a mismatch. Or as simple as spacing it out on the floor, and letting one of the three do a PnR with another dead-shot in Ibaka or Vooch.

There's really just so many ideas for off-the-ball plays and other simple plays when it is 5 great shooters out on the floor at the same time! And if they all make it work very well, then it can become a mainstay lineup with even more complex plays and passes.

Every year when we watch the Playoffs, it is never really a 5 man team out there. It always seems to go about 6-7 deep of impact players instead. Maybe Mario and Aaron are the 6th and 7th this season? But maybe in 1-2 more seasons, it's Mario putting Evan on the bench and Aaron putting Parsons or Vooch (sliding Ibaka to C) on the bench?

Either way, adding Parsons to the Magic right now would be a big acquisition. And when adding Ibaka and the rest of the Magic too.. what would be the limits this season??

[Bensational]

I struggle to see the franchise signing another potentially injury plagued player like Parsons after Grant Hill.

But, if we did, I think a lineup of

Ibaka
Parsons
Gordon
Fournier
Payton

Could be good. 3 good perimeter threats to open the inside up for Payton and Gordon to attack it and always have a kick out option.

The roster with Vuc at C and Gordon off the bench could be interesting too, if it meant Vuc spent more time in the paint. He could flourish as a scorer and he's got the passing game to make the most of the 3pt threats.

So I wouldn't be bummed by the move. I'd be highly skeptical of Parsons staying healthy though.

Maybe a 1&1 deal would be best. That way if he gets injured next year we get out of jail for free and have max cap room to chase big FAs again.

[Cammo101]

Yuck. Parsons is not the go to scorer we need. I'd rather roll the dice on Barnes, at least he has a high ceiling and isn't constantly hurt.

[D J C]

I was worried about Chandler's injury history but I've been warming up to him. He's an efficient scorer and adds another shooter to the lineup. With Evan-Parsons-Ibaka able to stretch the floor, it'd open up the paint for Elf and Vooch. His versatility as being able to play both forward positions is nice too. Imagine running Parsons/AG at 4/5 to try our own little death lineup, or lineups with Fournier-Mario-Parsons-Ibaka where every player is dangerous from deep.

I'd like to see what he could do as more of a priority and more shots on offense. The most shots a game he's had yet in his careers only 13 a game.

Run a starting line-up of Elf - Evan - Parsons - Ibaka - Vooch, with AG getting 30+ mpg as the 6th man and Ibaka splitting his time between the 4/5. Mario will get as much time as he earns backing up Evan and Parsons, with room to get up to 30 mpg.

Another thing I noticed, Evan and Parsons both shot over 40% from 3 last season.. no starting SG/SF combo did that last season. On top of that add in Mario, who could rotate with either player and hit shots at the same rate. Would be a pretty special advantage to have in today's game.

[orlando1214]

Hate to be a debbie downer, but somebody else said this earlier today and it stuck in my head....

"Anything that further decreases the amount of time that Aaron Gordon sees on the court is a bad move."

Already, Ibaka's addition has affected Gordon's playing time. Anything more and we might as well seek out trade opportunities to get him off the team. At what point does Vogel get upset? I mean he keeps talking about how he took this team because of our young talent who he thinks can turn the corner. Meanwhile, the PG and C positions for us continue to hamper the team. So long as we have a non shooting PG and a C that can't defend, this team will be pretenders... and I would hate for us to have a summer where we ignored both positions. I wish more people recognized our real weaknesses.

I noticed you had Hezonja as our #2 PG... is that something other people are seriously thinking will happen here too? Not saying it wouldn't work... in fact I love out of the box thinking like that, but I want to know if that's something we could realistically grasp onto.

I really don't see why adding someone like Parsons would hurt Aaron's play time. Vogel has already said he will play both Small and Power Forward, and with 48 minutes to hand out at both positions, there shouldnt be any issue with getting Parsons, AG, and Ibaka all 30 plus minutes.

Also I don't know why Vogel would get upset at all by a move like this. You're right he did say the young core is a reason he came to the Magic, but every time he has said that he has also always mentions adding key free agents as well, so why would adding impact free agents bother him? He's also made it clear that winning is what he wants to do, if bringing a player in or trading a player like Oladipo for Ibaka is going to help that, then he's not going to have a problem with that, and I think he's made that pretty clear in his interviews since. Finally, if the Ibaka trade is any indication, Rob will always ask Vogel his input on things and I doubt he would do anything that Vogel is completely against.

[NBAchamps2017]

Vuc + Fournier will be traded for Jimmy Butler.
I guess this is the best offer the Bulls will get for Jimmy. Hard to refuse this during their fire sale. Bulls will get a young center in case Noah leaves. Fournier will replace Butler as their SG. For the Magic, we get a dynamic scorer that we lost in Oladipo plus Butler fits the bill as the team's go to guy. Serge and Jimmy can be the primary scorers and defenders.

[Skin]

Hate to be a debbie downer, but somebody else said this earlier today and it stuck in my head....

"Anything that further decreases the amount of time that Aaron Gordon sees on the court is a bad move."

Already, Ibaka's addition has affected Gordon's playing time. Anything more and we might as well seek out trade opportunities to get him off the team. At what point does Vogel get upset? I mean he keeps talking about how he took this team because of our young talent who he thinks can turn the corner. Meanwhile, the PG and C positions for us continue to hamper the team. So long as we have a non shooting PG and a C that can't defend, this team will be pretenders... and I would hate for us to have a summer where we ignored both positions. I wish more people recognized our real weaknesses.

I noticed you had Hezonja as our #2 PG... is that something other people are seriously thinking will happen here too? Not saying it wouldn't work... in fact I love out of the box thinking like that, but I want to know if that's something we could realistically grasp onto.

I really don't see why adding someone like Parsons would hurt Aaron's play time. Vogel has already said he will play both Small and Power Forward, and with 48 minutes to hand out at both positions, there shouldnt be any issue with getting Parsons, AG, and Ibaka all 30 plus minutes.

Also I don't know why Vogel would get upset at all by a move like this. You're right he did say the young core is a reason he came to the Magic, but every time he has said that he has also always mentions adding key free agents as well, so why would adding impact free agents bother him? He's also made it clear that winning is what he wants to do, if bringing a player in or trading a player like Oladipo for Ibaka is going to help that, then he's not going to have a problem with that, and I think he's made that pretty clear in his interviews since. Finally, if the Ibaka trade is any indication, Rob will always ask Vogel his input on things and I doubt he would do anything that Vogel is completely against.

I mean the most frustrating thing is that Aaron Gordon's future as a starter is just killed by a signing like this. Actually, no... the most frustrating thing is we STILL have unaddressed weaknesses at PG and C and we're wasting money at SF. We got rid of Tobias to open up playing time, but now we're gonna undo that? If it happens it happens, but I feel like the want for Parsons is because he is mainly a Florida alum.

[orlando1214]

Hate to be a debbie downer, but somebody else said this earlier today and it stuck in my head....

"Anything that further decreases the amount of time that Aaron Gordon sees on the court is a bad move."

Already, Ibaka's addition has affected Gordon's playing time. Anything more and we might as well seek out trade opportunities to get him off the team. At what point does Vogel get upset? I mean he keeps talking about how he took this team because of our young talent who he thinks can turn the corner. Meanwhile, the PG and C positions for us continue to hamper the team. So long as we have a non shooting PG and a C that can't defend, this team will be pretenders... and I would hate for us to have a summer where we ignored both positions. I wish more people recognized our real weaknesses.

I noticed you had Hezonja as our #2 PG... is that something other people are seriously thinking will happen here too? Not saying it wouldn't work... in fact I love out of the box thinking like that, but I want to know if that's something we could realistically grasp onto.

I really don't see why adding someone like Parsons would hurt Aaron's play time. Vogel has already said he will play both Small and Power Forward, and with 48 minutes to hand out at both positions, there shouldnt be any issue with getting Parsons, AG, and Ibaka all 30 plus minutes.

Also I don't know why Vogel would get upset at all by a move like this. You're right he did say the young core is a reason he came to the Magic, but every time he has said that he has also always mentions adding key free agents as well, so why would adding impact free agents bother him? He's also made it clear that winning is what he wants to do, if bringing a player in or trading a player like Oladipo for Ibaka is going to help that, then he's not going to have a problem with that, and I think he's made that pretty clear in his interviews since. Finally, if the Ibaka trade is any indication, Rob will always ask Vogel his input on things and I doubt he would do anything that Vogel is completely against.

I mean the most frustrating thing is that Aaron Gordon's future as a starter is just killed by a signing like this. Actually, no... the most frustrating thing is we STILL have unaddressed weaknesses at PG and C and we're wasting money at SF. We got rid of Tobias to open up playing time, but now we're gonna undo that? If it happens it happens, but I feel like the want for Parsons is because he is mainly a Florida alum.

Yeah, I get your concerns when you put it like that. I also totally agree that other things need to be addressed as well. The Magic have a lot of money though, and signing Parsons isn't going to stop them from signing other players as well. I think we do need another PG and C, although I think I like Vuc way more than you, so I'm not as concerned with that position as you are.

The main thing that you bring up that does concern me is not starting AG. A guy like Parsons probably won't sign with the Magic unless he knows he's going to be a starter. So with Ibaka obviously starting as well, that means AG would be the odd man out. That is not something I want, but knowing Vogel could still play him starters minutes by splitting his time at SF and PF makes it easier. It's a tough choice, because I truly believe AG can be a star. However, I also feel like signing someone like Parsons helps this team win more, and he also adds another player who can both shoot and drive, something not many players on the team can do both of.

As for the whole Florida connection, I couldn't care less that he was a Gator. I just think him being from the Orlando area helps with signing him. The Magic obviously are not going to get Durant, DeRozan, and probably not Batum either, so the next best wings are probably Parsons and Barnes. So having one from Orlando can go a long way to helping bring one of those guys in if that's what Rob wants to do. I also totally wouldn't be opposed with signing a few lower tier wings like Dudley or hell, even Lance Stephenson since he did so well under Vogel and did fine with Memphis. I just think Parsons would really make this team better, but that's just my opinion.

[MagicFinsNoles1]

I like Parsons minus the constant injuries, and I don't think he's a max player. I'd also rather not stunt Gordon's development with moving him to the bench unless the plan were to make Vooch our 6th man version of Kanter. I just don't think Parsons is worth the potential headache he could become based on these reasons. On the other hand Batum would be worth the max money, and he could play SG which could shift Fournier into the 6th man role which I personally feel would thrive in.

Elf/Watson
Batum/Fournier
Gordon/Mario
Ibaka/Nicholson
Vooch/Mahimi

That defensive length positions 1 through 4 is crazy. Which we we would need because we would struggle to score consistently outside of vooch, batum and fournier.

[tiderulz]

Yuck. Parsons is not the go to scorer we need. I'd rather roll the dice on Barnes, at least he has a high ceiling and isn't constantly hurt.

health wise i take Barnes >> Parsons

ability wise, Parsons >>> Barnes.

[tiderulz]

Vuc + Fournier will be traded for Jimmy Butler.
I guess this is the best offer the Bulls will get for Jimmy. Hard to refuse this during their fire sale. Bulls will get a young center in case Noah leaves. Fournier will replace Butler as their SG. For the Magic, we get a dynamic scorer that we lost in Oladipo plus Butler fits the bill as the team's go to guy. Serge and Jimmy can be the primary scorers and defenders.

lol, you think Fournier + Vuc is the best offer Chicago see's for Butler? Chicago just got a center from NY. Chicago easily turns down that offer if that is all it is. they have Butler locked up, they dont have to trade him

and you dont want Serge as a primary scorer

[tiderulz]

I really don't see why adding someone like Parsons would hurt Aaron's play time. Vogel has already said he will play both Small and Power Forward, and with 48 minutes to hand out at both positions, there shouldnt be any issue with getting Parsons, AG, and Ibaka all 30 plus minutes.

Also I don't know why Vogel would get upset at all by a move like this. You're right he did say the young core is a reason he came to the Magic, but every time he has said that he has also always mentions adding key free agents as well, so why would adding impact free agents bother him? He's also made it clear that winning is what he wants to do, if bringing a player in or trading a player like Oladipo for Ibaka is going to help that, then he's not going to have a problem with that, and I think he's made that pretty clear in his interviews since. Finally, if the Ibaka trade is any indication, Rob will always ask Vogel his input on things and I doubt he would do anything that Vogel is completely against.

I mean the most frustrating thing is that Aaron Gordon's future as a starter is just killed by a signing like this. Actually, no... the most frustrating thing is we STILL have unaddressed weaknesses at PG and C and we're wasting money at SF. We got rid of Tobias to open up playing time, but now we're gonna undo that? If it happens it happens, but I feel like the want for Parsons is because he is mainly a Florida alum.

Yeah, I get your concerns when you put it like that. I also totally agree that other things need to be addressed as well. The Magic have a lot of money though, and signing Parsons isn't going to stop them from signing other players as well. I think we do need another PG and C, although I think I like Vuc way more than you, so I'm not as concerned with that position as you are.

The main thing that you bring up that does concern me is not starting AG. A guy like Parsons probably won't sign with the Magic unless he knows he's going to be a starter. So with Ibaka obviously starting as well, that means AG would be the odd man out. That is not something I want, but knowing Vogel could still play him starters minutes by splitting his time at SF and PF makes it easier. It's a tough choice, because I truly believe AG can be a star. However, I also feel like signing someone like Parsons helps this team win more, and he also adds another player who can both shoot and drive, something not many players on the team can do both of.

As for the whole Florida connection, I couldn't care less that he was a Gator. I just think him being from the Orlando area helps with signing him. The Magic obviously are not going to get Durant, DeRozan, and probably not Batum either, so the next best wings are probably Parsons and Barnes. So having one from Orlando can go a long way to helping bring one of those guys in if that's what Rob wants to do. I also totally wouldn't be opposed with signing a few lower tier wings like Dudley or hell, even Lance Stephenson since he did so well under Vogel and did fine with Memphis. I just think Parsons would really make this team better, but that's just my opinion.

AG would have to want to split time between SF and PF. You know his agent hears all the time "combo forward" and tweener, and doesnt want his client labelled that because then they get lowballed for his next contract offers.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Whatever happens I hope it doesn't turn us into a treadmill team. They need be calling Mike Conley at 12:01 am

[Tayswagzzz]

Whatever happens I hope it doesn't turn us into a treadmill team. They need be calling Mike Conley at 12:01 am

He is honestly our biggest need right now IMO in free agency, not named Durant of course.


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[KerotanFrog]

I'm warming up to the idea of Parsons as our 3. I didn't realize he was so tall. Reminds me of a more athletic Hedo. And I loved Hedo. If he can stay healthy, which is more likely if his usage is reduced because of Aaron and Mario, he could reduce the wear on his body.

But I would concede that if we did that, I would want to start Vuc off the bench. He flourished in the second unit this season after coming back from his groin injury. He was scoring 25 pts regularly as the sixth man. That would be huge for our second unit. I would add Parsons, resign Fournier, and if possible, add Conley too. Then resign Smith and Nicholson. The starting 5 would be stacked, and the bench would be deep too.

Ibaka - Vucevic - Smith - Zimmerman
Gordon - Nicholson
Parsons - Gordon
Fournier - Hezonja
Conley - Payton - Watson- Napier

That team easily wins 45-50 games and could get to second or third round, especially with Vogel running the show. I doubt the team will quit halfway through, especially with the new Veteran presence on the roster.

[warren4prez]

Parsons is ok but he's not kind of player we need some of you guys are obsessed with because he's a local kind. We don't give this kind of player max and we need to see what we have in Gordon and Henzonja instead of burying them on the bench. So in closing say NO TO CHANDLER PARSONS!