Dwight Howard

[Dat2U]

At this stage of his career, Gortat is a better player than Howard. I don't see Howard as a guy that moves the needle anymore. Like Derrick Rose and Tony Parker, he's just a big name who's a shell of his former self. The idea that he's still a very good defensive player is rooted in what he's done in the past not the present. He's simply not that player anymore.

I haven't watched enough film to say for certain, but this is not my impression. Howard posted an individual DRtg of 104; HOU's as a team was 108.1. Harden, as we know, was an embarrassingly poor defender and Dwight was left to cover for his mistakes. It seems like he did to a reasonable degree. HOU ended up 20th in D -- basically deadlocked with Portland and Memphis -- I think they'd be way worse without Dwight. He's an elite rebounder and finishes at a really high percentage (though he can't shoot FT's). Then again HOU was the very worst defensive rebounding team in the league, so I don't know.

I just think the pendulum has swung too far on him because he's an unpopular personaility. I think he can help a team win.

This is more or less my impression as well. I don't know where it's coming from that his defense is average or bad now.

Come on fish, you know DRtg is widely regarded as a sh*t stat. The on/of numbers don't quite vibe with your analysis. They were 1.1 pts worse with Howard off the court per 100 possessions. 109.0 with him on vs 110.1 with him off.

Looking at RPM, Howard ranked 35th out of 77 Cs with an RPM of 1.62. Nene ranked 11th with an RPM of 3.02. Gortat was 16th with an RPM of 2.65.

In 2014-15 Howard's RPM was 2.08. In 2013-14 it was 4.91. So he's experienced a huge decline there.

[fishercob]

I haven't watched enough film to say for certain, but this is not my impression. Howard posted an individual DRtg of 104; HOU's as a team was 108.1. Harden, as we know, was an embarrassingly poor defender and Dwight was left to cover for his mistakes. It seems like he did to a reasonable degree. HOU ended up 20th in D -- basically deadlocked with Portland and Memphis -- I think they'd be way worse without Dwight. He's an elite rebounder and finishes at a really high percentage (though he can't shoot FT's). Then again HOU was the very worst defensive rebounding team in the league, so I don't know.

I just think the pendulum has swung too far on him because he's an unpopular personaility. I think he can help a team win.

This is more or less my impression as well. I don't know where it's coming from that his defense is average or bad now.

Come on fish, you know DRtg is widely regarded as a sh*t stat. The on/of numbers don't quite vibe with your analysis. They were 1.1 pts worse with Howard off the court per 100 possessions. 109.0 with him on vs 110.1 with him off.

Looking at RPM, Howard ranked 35th out of 77 Cs with an RPM of 1.62. Nene ranked 11th with an RPM of 3.02. Gortat was 16th with an RPM of 2.65.

In 2014-15 Howard's RPM was 2.08. In 2013-14 it was 4.91. So he's experienced a huge decline there.

My impression of DRtg -- and again, I may be wrong -- is that is heavily influenced by team performance. So it jumped out at me that Howard's individual DRtg was so much lower than the team. I would also guess that there's some Harden-created noise in Howard's on-off, as likely most of Dwight's ON came when Harden was on the floor. I don't know much about RPM; I should take the time to study up on it.

[gtn130]

I haven't watched enough film to say for certain, but this is not my impression. Howard posted an individual DRtg of 104; HOU's as a team was 108.1. Harden, as we know, was an embarrassingly poor defender and Dwight was left to cover for his mistakes. It seems like he did to a reasonable degree. HOU ended up 20th in D -- basically deadlocked with Portland and Memphis -- I think they'd be way worse without Dwight. He's an elite rebounder and finishes at a really high percentage (though he can't shoot FT's). Then again HOU was the very worst defensive rebounding team in the league, so I don't know.

I just think the pendulum has swung too far on him because he's an unpopular personaility. I think he can help a team win.

This is more or less my impression as well. I don't know where it's coming from that his defense is average or bad now.

Come on fish, you know DRtg is widely regarded as a sh*t stat. The on/of numbers don't quite vibe with your analysis. They were 1.1 pts worse with Howard off the court per 100 possessions. 109.0 with him on vs 110.1 with him off.

Looking at RPM, Howard ranked 35th out of 77 Cs with an RPM of 1.62. Nene ranked 11th with an RPM of 3.02. Gortat was 16th with an RPM of 2.65.

In 2014-15 Howard's RPM was 2.08. In 2013-14 it was 4.91. So he's experienced a huge decline there.

DRtg is literally an estimate of (team) points allowed per 100 possessions when that player is on the court.

[LyricalRico]

For me, it's simpler than breaking down Gortat vs Howard on the court - it's as simple as $12M vs $25M (or whatever the max is for him). Even if one could formulate an argument that Howard was slightly (or even appreciably) better than Gortat, the modest upgrade wouldn't be worth more than double the salary. Would it?

[fishercob]

For me, it's simpler than breaking down Gortat vs Howard on the court - it's as simple as $12M vs $25M (or whatever the max is for him). Even if one could formulate an argument that Howard was slightly (or even appreciably) better than Gortat, the modest upgrade wouldn't be worth more than double the salary. Would it?

Well to be clear, I said I didn't want Howard at his max. But purely given skill set and the job the center on this team -- play pick and roll with John and anchor the D -- I think Howard is better. I doubt we could sign Howard for what I'd want to pay him. What we really need is a developmental C who can play spot minutes this year, 10-15 mpg next year, and take the starting job from Gortat in 2018. Maybe that's Jaleel Watkins. I dunno.

For this season, I think Markieff has the potential to be a solid backup C, basically doing what Nene should have done last year -- splitting his minutes between the 4 and 5. If you bring in a guy like Ryan Anderson to be your 6th man, that could conceivably work out.

[Dark Faze]

For me, it's simpler than breaking down Gortat vs Howard on the court - it's as simple as $12M vs $25M (or whatever the max is for him). Even if one could formulate an argument that Howard was slightly (or even appreciably) better than Gortat, the modest upgrade wouldn't be worth more than double the salary. Would it?

The problem is that you have to view this through the lens of the new market. The difference could very easily just be Dwight vs Gortat + one roleplayer, and one roleplayer may or may not be worth the downgrade in starting caliber talent. Because now there are guys that we've traditionally thought of as good roleplayers now being worth 15-17 million a year--the Biyombo's and Ryan Andersons of the world.

There's also the argument to be made that Gortat's contract could then be traded for other good roleplayers that also signed extensions during a time when the cap was lower. And there's some value there, as he's really one of the few movable contracts that we have and I think there's a market for a contract like Marcins.

[payitforward]

For me, it's simpler than breaking down Gortat vs Howard on the court - it's as simple as $12M vs $25M (or whatever the max is for him). Even if one could formulate an argument that Howard was slightly (or even appreciably) better than Gortat, the modest upgrade wouldn't be worth more than double the salary. Would it?

Bingo. Are there better Centers? Sure. But, dollar for dollar, Gortat is certainly one of the best Centers in the league (leaving out rookie contracts of course).

Gortat is probably the best contract we have for the next few years. It would be foolhardy to trade him (unless some extraordinary return was involved).

[SUPERBALLMAN]

For me, it's simpler than breaking down Gortat vs Howard on the court - it's as simple as $12M vs $25M (or whatever the max is for him). Even if one could formulate an argument that Howard was slightly (or even appreciably) better than Gortat, the modest upgrade wouldn't be worth more than double the salary. Would it?

The problem is that you have to view this through the lens of the new market. The difference could very easily just be Dwight vs Gortat + one roleplayer, and one roleplayer may or may not be worth the downgrade in starting caliber talent. Because now there are guys that we've traditionally thought of as good roleplayers now being worth 15-17 million a year--the Biyombo's and Ryan Andersons of the world.

There's also the argument to be made that Gortat's contract could then be traded for other good roleplayers that also signed extensions during a time when the cap was lower. And there's some value there, as he's really one of the few movable contracts that we have and I think there's a market for a contract like Marcins.

This is my thought also, if we could get Howard, what could we then get for Gortat in trade?

[LyricalRico]

For me, it's simpler than breaking down Gortat vs Howard on the court - it's as simple as $12M vs $25M (or whatever the max is for him). Even if one could formulate an argument that Howard was slightly (or even appreciably) better than Gortat, the modest upgrade wouldn't be worth more than double the salary. Would it?

The problem is that you have to view this through the lens of the new market. The difference could very easily just be Dwight vs Gortat + one roleplayer, and one roleplayer may or may not be worth the downgrade in starting caliber talent. Because now there are guys that we've traditionally thought of as good roleplayers now being worth 15-17 million a year--the Biyombo's and Ryan Andersons of the world.

There's also the argument to be made that Gortat's contract could then be traded for other good roleplayers that also signed extensions during a time when the cap was lower. And there's some value there, as he's really one of the few movable contracts that we have and I think there's a market for a contract like Marcins.

This is my thought also, if we could get Howard, what could we then get for Gortat in trade?

But then you also have to consider what we could get for the $25M+ we'd be paying for Howard. For the sake of argument, let's say we can do Gortat for Iggy. So is Howard+Iggy better than, say, Gortat+Anderson+Amir Johnson? I would say no.

[Dark Faze]

For me, it's simpler than breaking down Gortat vs Howard on the court - it's as simple as $12M vs $25M (or whatever the max is for him). Even if one could formulate an argument that Howard was slightly (or even appreciably) better than Gortat, the modest upgrade wouldn't be worth more than double the salary. Would it?

The problem is that you have to view this through the lens of the new market. The difference could very easily just be Dwight vs Gortat + one roleplayer, and one roleplayer may or may not be worth the downgrade in starting caliber talent. Because now there are guys that we've traditionally thought of as good roleplayers now being worth 15-17 million a year--the Biyombo's and Ryan Andersons of the world.

There's also the argument to be made that Gortat's contract could then be traded for other good roleplayers that also signed extensions during a time when the cap was lower. And there's some value there, as he's really one of the few movable contracts that we have and I think there's a market for a contract like Marcins.

This is my thought also, if we could get Howard, what could we then get for Gortat in trade?

Some guys on pre-cap raise contracts:

Danilo Gallinari @ 15 mil (player option after next year)
Kenneth Faried @ 11.2 on mil with raises yoy through 2019 (huge value regardless of fit)
Will Barton @ like 4 mil
Ariza at 9 mil
Ed Davis @ 7 mil (and Portland needs center help)
Eric Bledsoe (would require a third team since I doubt they want Gortat back, nugs too don't really need center help so might need a third team)

Just some names.

Important to note that while many here are happy with the frontcourt--it's telling that a more successful and intelligent team with a BETTER front court than us in Atlanta are interested in Howard. And they have Horford/Milsap!

To me its pretty clear that although the stats on paper don't put Gortat and Horford miles behind a guy like Dwight, and the value difference seems bad, at the end of the day having the better player over the better depth always matters.

[Dark Faze]

But then you also have to consider what we could get for the $25M+ we'd be paying for Howard. For the sake of argument, let's say we can do Gortat for Iggy. So is Howard+Iggy better than, say, Gortat+Anderson+Amir Johnson? I would say no.

I mean I would say yes all effing day to Howard + Iggy to Gortat + Anderson + Amir Johnson. All day. I think it really comes down to a difference of the value of these players. I think Howard is just significantly better than Gortat even if it isn't immediately obvious in the stats, and getting the inferior player plus a decent roleplayer is not superior to having the better player overall imo

What you're suggesting is literally what Atlanta has lived through. They've clearly seen enough to prefer the better player over depth.

[stevemcqueen1]

Problem with Howard is that a big reason it didn't work out in Houston was because he didn't like his lack of usage. That'd be a problem for us too because we run our offense through two guards. And Howard doesn't exactly have the individual scoring and playmaking skills to take the ball out of the hands of our guards.

Hit fit is with a team that runs the offense through their bigs.

[Dark Faze]

Problem with Howard is that a big reason it didn't work out in Houston was because he didn't like his lack of usage. That'd be a problem for us too because we run our offense through two guards. And Howard doesn't exactly have the individual scoring and playmaking skills to take the ball out of the hands of our guards.

Hit fit is with a team that runs the offense through their bigs.

His usage WAS embarrasingly low though. He averaged 8.5 shots a game compared to Gortat's 10.2 a game....and Gortat averaged LESS mpg.

Wall loves the drive and dump off for the dunk. And he's (sadly) one of the few guards in the league that can make a pass into the post without taking half the shotclock to do so.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Problem with Howard is that a big reason it didn't work out in Houston was because he didn't like his lack of usage. That'd be a problem for us too because we run our offense through two guards. And Howard doesn't exactly have the individual scoring and playmaking skills to take the ball out of the hands of our guards.

Hit fit is with a team that runs the offense through their bigs.

His usage WAS embarrasingly low though. He averaged 8.5 shots a game compared to Gortat's 10.2 a game....and Gortat averaged LESS mpg.

Wall loves the drive and dump off for the dunk. And he's (sadly) one of the few guards in the league that can make a pass into the post without taking half the shotclock to do so.

Right that would actually be a selling point to come here, playing with someone like Wall as opposed to Hardin. Wall drive and dish to Howard would be virtually unstoppable.

I like the Gallinari for Gortat scenario ... just quick look at the checker it works, even trying combos like Gortat to Milwaukee, Monroe to Nugs, Gallinari to Wiz for example. Sure it would need a tweak here or there but if we could somehow parlay Gortat for Gallinari...

Howard C
Morris C/PF
Gallinari PF/SF
Porter SF
Oubre SF/SG
Beal SG
Wall PG

http://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/6700797

[gtn130]

Problem with Howard is that a big reason it didn't work out in Houston was because he didn't like his lack of usage. That'd be a problem for us too because we run our offense through two guards. And Howard doesn't exactly have the individual scoring and playmaking skills to take the ball out of the hands of our guards.

Hit fit is with a team that runs the offense through their bigs.

His usage WAS embarrasingly low though. He averaged 8.5 shots a game compared to Gortat's 10.2 a game....and Gortat averaged LESS mpg.

Wall loves the drive and dump off for the dunk. And he's (sadly) one of the few guards in the league that can make a pass into the post without taking half the shotclock to do so.

Right that would actually be a selling point to come here, playing with someone like Wall as opposed to Hardin. Wall drive and dish to Howard would be virtually unstoppable.

I like the Gallinari for Gortat scenario ... just quick look at the checker it works, even trying combos like Gortat to Milwaukee, Monroe to Nugs, Gallinari to Wiz for example. Sure it would need a tweak here or there but if we could somehow parlay Gortat for Gallinari...

Howard C
Morris C/PF
Gallinari PF/SF
Porter SF
Oubre SF/SG
Beal SG
Wall PG

http://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/6700797

It would work but Denver would have zero interest. They have Jokic and Nurkic.

[LyricalRico]

Great piece on Dwight: http://thelab.bleacherreport.com/would-you-pay-dwight-howard-31-million/

This excerpt sums it up for me:

"There's no clear landing space for him," one person with ties to Howard said. "There's no team that's a Dwight Howard away from being significantly better."

[SUPERBALLMAN]

His usage WAS embarrasingly low though. He averaged 8.5 shots a game compared to Gortat's 10.2 a game....and Gortat averaged LESS mpg.

Wall loves the drive and dump off for the dunk. And he's (sadly) one of the few guards in the league that can make a pass into the post without taking half the shotclock to do so.

Right that would actually be a selling point to come here, playing with someone like Wall as opposed to Hardin. Wall drive and dish to Howard would be virtually unstoppable.

I like the Gallinari for Gortat scenario ... just quick look at the checker it works, even trying combos like Gortat to Milwaukee, Monroe to Nugs, Gallinari to Wiz for example. Sure it would need a tweak here or there but if we could somehow parlay Gortat for Gallinari...

Howard C
Morris C/PF
Gallinari PF/SF
Porter SF
Oubre SF/SG
Beal SG
Wall PG

http://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/6700797

It would work but Denver would have zero interest. They have Jokic and Nurkic.

Well the idea is to work a 3 team that would send Denver a player they do want.

It's moot because signing Howard isn't a possibility.
I

[Kanyewest]

Great piece on Dwight: http://thelab.bleacherreport.com/would-you-pay-dwight-howard-31-million/

This excerpt sums it up for me:

"There's no clear landing space for him," one person with ties to Howard said. "There's no team that's a Dwight Howard away from being significantly better."

The only team I can think of that might be better would be the Warriors; at least they have may have won a title with Howard but that says more about Ezeli/Barnes. Still, there is still a risk of things not working out given that Howard isn't a great passer.