Not In The Face - The Jeremy Lin Thread 3 + 1

[tonman]

I'd wish him the best then. Personal stats, VORP, WS, WARS have all gone down fairly consistently over the years. He struggled to get the MLE last summer making his market < $5.5. Based upon the salary cap increase on the heels of another decline and being a year older, anything in excess of $7-8 would be a reach. I could, however, very easily see a deal for $10+ mil if the 2nd year is team option.

Many players will face a similar decision with teams wanting to maintain 2017 cap flexibility. If it were me I'd take the money no questions asked. "Starting" is temporary, as is the team if traded. The contract is certain.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/06/27/jeremy-lin-just-had-a-nice-bounce-back-year-so-how-much-is-he-worth-now/

As mentioned this is junk. He played his role on this team. Someone can try to find some stat or create some stat to quantify how well he played or you can simply watch. WAR stat is a joke. Look at it this way, he's the team's 6th man. Make the assumption the starters are more important than lin than figure he would be 6th on this team in salary. But you will have to correlate salaries so Kemba 12m would be like 20% more in 2016 salary.

[Mystical Apples]

Cody, Frank, Courtney, Marvin, Belinelli and Spencer all made < $7.5 million, 4 of them starters and a 5th who started in the playoffs. Should we use those salaries too or just the cherry-picked one's?

[TinmanZBoy]

Cody, Frank, Courtney, Marvin, Belinelli and Spencer all made < $7.5 million, 4 of them starters and a 5th who started in the playoffs. Should we use those salaries too or just the cherry-picked one's?

You know Frank,Cody are on rookie deals, aren't you?... IMHO, Frank's value should be around 15 millions/year based on his effectiveness in multiple situations... Cody could easily be a max player after his rookie deal

[antique0o0]

Cody, Frank, Courtney, Marvin, Belinelli and Spencer all made < $7.5 million, 4 of them starters and a 5th who started in the playoffs. Should we use those salaries too or just the cherry-picked one's?

You know Frank,Cody are on rookie deals, aren't you?... IMHO, Frank's value should be around 15 millions/year based on his effectiveness in multiple situations... Cody could easily be a max player after his rookie deal

Frank isn't gonna get 15m and Cody isn't gonna get max.

[bws94]

All this stuff on Lin's worth is ridiculous. He'll get paid what the FOs will offer and we'll find out what that is. He's a warrior. Missed only 4 games, played hard, came up big in some big games. Struggled with his shot and had some forgettable games but for my money, Lin comes through when it matters. Stats aren't enough to tell anything. Watch basketball enough and you find that out.

Lin was exciting to watch when he got it going and made the team more fun IMO. The team will still be fun, but in a different way if he leaves.

[hood30]

Cody, Frank, Courtney, Marvin, Belinelli and Spencer all made < $7.5 million, 4 of them starters and a 5th who started in the playoffs. Should we use those salaries too or just the cherry-picked one's?

You know Frank,Cody are on rookie deals, aren't you?... IMHO, Frank's value should be around 15 millions/year based on his effectiveness in multiple situations... Cody could easily be a max player after his rookie deal

Frank isn't gonna get 15m and Cody isn't gonna get max.

I agree with you..this poster really lost me there...Frank at $15M based on last year performance?...Cody as a max player??..That's troll worthy statement.

I also love Lin, but I'd be surprised if he gets more than $12M..Lin's main line statistics are the worst since his Knicks days..He only shot 41%FG...His FG% have been declining for the past 3 years and I think some team will wonder why.

On the other hand, Lin has had his best production of points per minutes...His "per36" Point-per-game is even better than his Knicks's year and that is because he went to the free-throw line at a very high rate..

I believe Lin finished in the top 10 in the NBA for the amount of time he went to the line "per36" since he did not play as much as other starting PG.

So while Lin did not shoot well, he did make it up by going to the line at a blistering rate...and this is the statistics his agent should point to when making a case for Lin during free agency.

[Lorenzomax7]

Someone heard from ESPN Radio that Lin's asking for 16 mil now, wow!

source？

[steady]

I'd wish him the best then. Personal stats, VORP, WS, WARS have all gone down fairly consistently over the years. He struggled to get the MLE last summer making his market < $5.5. Based upon the salary cap increase on the heels of another decline and being a year older, anything in excess of $7-8 would be a reach. I could, however, very easily see a deal for $10+ mil if the 2nd year is team option.

Many players will face a similar decision with teams wanting to maintain 2017 cap flexibility. If it were me I'd take the money no questions asked. "Starting" is temporary, as is the team if traded. The contract is certain.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/06/27/jeremy-lin-just-had-a-nice-bounce-back-year-so-how-much-is-he-worth-now/

If Lin had played a similar role on teams, and had similar usage/minutes over the past four years, those WAR numbers might be interesting, but he hasn't

Can anyone seriously say that Lin was a better player in 2012 than he is now?

2012-2013 was just the last time he started for a team not the Lakers

[ChokeFasncists]

Statsgeeknazis are serious jokes. Lin's stocks jumped significantly in the playoffs, when it really counts. Won three straight when he played a lot; lost when he was in foul trouble and wasn't on the court enough. Gotta take usage and circumstances into account?

Someone heard from ESPN Radio that Lin's asking for 16 mil now, wow!

source？

I saw it in the Grizzlies forum. Seems like a pretty good poster.

[Mystical Apples]

Stats don't matter, sources in forums do, Lin's coaches should have played him more, and just watch the games! Got it.

[tonman]

Stats don't matter, sources in forums do, Lin's coaches should have played him more, and just watch the games! Got it.

everything in context. if you had a million bucks you might think that is a lot until you look around and everyone else has more. what the WAR stats showed is that if you play a lot, you contribute more.... gee that was so hard to understand.

[ChokeFasncists]

Stats don't matter,

Stats is good, I use it, unless it's used as the sole proof of truth. That article is really idiotic.

sources in forums do,

The guy (he's the main poster and mod there if it means anything) wrote he heard it from ESPN Radio, unless his ears' got problems or he's lying, it shouldn't be completely wiped off.

Lin's coaches should have played him more,

Sometimes, depends, but Game 7, yes.

and just watch the games! Got it.

Why only watch when you can do both?

EDIT: BTW, I was talking about Greenberg being bad, not you, just wanted to make sure it's clear.

[Mystical Apples]

Stats don't matter, sources in forums do, Lin's coaches should have played him more, and just watch the games! Got it.

everything in context. if you had a million bucks you might think that is a lot until you look around and everyone else has more. what the WAR stats showed is that if you play a lot, you contribute more.... gee that was so hard to understand.

Ok now I get it. Karl Anthony Towns is pissed because backups are getting $25 mil contracts only to get worse and their coaches play them less. Thx.

[rallydurham]

Did you really just state that Lin was better last year than he was during Linsanity???

Now I've really heard it all.

Lin is gonna get $12-$15m/yr you can bank on that. The salaries being offered are completely out of control and teams are going to really regret these long term deals being handed out.

There is too much salary cap space out there for teams to think rationally. Once the cap space increases cease you'll start to see market rates return to some sense of rationality.

That much ballyhooed Marvin 2/$14 deal sure would look good as a 4/$28 right now.

Kemba/mkg gives us a nice leg up on the competition but we really needed to lock a third piece up when we had the opportunity. Now we've got a somewhat flawed roster without quite enough talent locked up.

If frank improves drastically and Cody continues to grow in his new role at center we still have a chance to break through with this group in the next few years

[PG13]

Lin is definitely a better player now than during Linsanity. He can now go left and go right, he plays solid defense, he's improved his handle and turns the ball over less, he plays with more than one speed, he can play off the ball... All these were his weaknesses back then. He's a much more all-around player now.

[PG13]

Someone heard from ESPN Radio that Lin's asking for 16 mil now, wow!

source？

I wonder if it's Nate Duncan's podcast where they did a mock FA thing. Lin was put into a bidding war - the Kings won at 16 mil.

[RealHusky]

Did you really just state that Lin was better last year than he was during Linsanity???

Now I've really heard it all.

Lin is gonna get $12-$15m/yr you can bank on that. The salaries being offered are completely out of control and teams are going to really regret these long term deals being handed out.

There is too much salary cap space out there for teams to think rationally. Once the cap space increases cease you'll start to see market rates return to some sense of rationality.

That much ballyhooed Marvin 2/$14 deal sure would look good as a 4/$28 right now.

Kemba/mkg gives us a nice leg up on the competition but we really needed to lock a third piece up when we had the opportunity. Now we've got a somewhat flawed roster without quite enough talent locked up.

If frank improves drastically and Cody continues to grow in his new role at center we still have a chance to break through with this group in the next few years

respond without personal attacks, last warning

[yosemiteben]

One thing Lin needs to consider is that even if he's a starter next season, if he's going somewhere with copious amounts of cap space he could get pushed to the bench for a marquee 2017 PG FA.

2017 FA PGs - Steph, Westbrook, CP3, Lowry, Schroeder, Rose, Teague, Holiday, Hill, Livingston

[antique0o0]

One thing Lin needs to consider is that even if he's a starter next season, if he's going somewhere with copious amounts of cap space he could get pushed to the bench for a marquee 2017 PG FA.

2017 FA PGs - Steph, Westbrook, CP3, Lowry, Schroeder, Rose, Teague, Holiday, Hill, Livingston

Being a starter for one season is better than coming off the bench for the rest of his career, simply because that's an opportunity for Lin to become what he can be, even pushed to the bench later.
As a Lin fan, IMO, being starter next season is the first step for Lin to become a star himself.

And he'll be paid better. Why not?
Anyone who followed Lin's career knows that what he wants the most is opportunity.

From high school to college, from college to NBA, he fought all his life for opportunities.

Next year is a big pg FA year, but there are also more teams who need pg. My guess is most of them will stay with their current team. How many new young star pg will emerge in one year?
Even if he was pushed to the bench by, let's say, Steph, I would say that'll be a very good team. That team could win an title. At least they won't be stopped in the first round.

Judging from your posts, you're not a fan of Lin, you predicted Lin will get traded for underperforming or pushed to the bench by a star point guard after one year.
I guess Lin leaving should make you happy.
Love your positive thinking.

[hood30]

One thing Lin needs to consider is that even if he's a starter next season, if he's going somewhere with copious amounts of cap space he could get pushed to the bench for a marquee 2017 PG FA.

2017 FA PGs - Steph, Westbrook, CP3, Lowry, Schroeder, Rose, Teague, Holiday, Hill, Livingston

I agree with you that even if Lin were to get a starting spot in the upcoming free agency, he could still be pushed out the year after since there will be so many good PG in the next free agent class...specially if Lin doesn't perform well.

On the other hand, I don't think that will enter into Lin's mind so much because as a player, you are still trying to get paid and even if he's pushed out of the starting spot, he still gets his money....That's better than not getting paid much as a bench player.

Lin will simply have to play well to keep his spot, and even if his team can upgrade and decide to sign a bigger name, Lin could still be traded to another team that need a starter.

Lin will basically have to put up good stats to be viewed as a starting-caliber player...If he gets the chance to start, he will have to do at the minimum, 15-17ppg and 6-8 assist......I think that's do-able for Lin under a system that caters to him....If he can put up this type of numbers, he will probably get a starting spot in the league and would be viewed as a mid-level starting guy.

there's 30 starting PG in the league...Lin needs to be in the top 15..Doesn't have to play like a top 5 or top 10 PG...Maybe somewhere between 15th and 20th