The more I think about it though, the more I like this trade and here's why
The Payton / Oladipo Experiment Failed
The last 2 years have been a pretty large failure for these two. Neither are elite shooters, both ball dominant, and neither could figure out how to exist with the other. There was no long term solution for these 2 playing together so Hennigan pulled the trigger and ended the marriage early.
Our backcourt was one of the worse in the league statistically. We had a -2.3 EFF differential here, while our frontcourt actually had a +0.4 EFF differential. (I know no stat is perfect, but I think this tells a directional story). Seems pretty clear change had to happen.
The Frye Effect and Serge
As much as everyone hated Channing Frye for his lack of defense, all advanced metrics point to him being the most valuable Magic player on the court this year. He had the best +/- stats and adjusted +/- stats while he was with Orlando. I don't think it was a coincidence when he brought an extremely valuable 3PT shoot trait to the Magic. Orlando's record fell apart with the departure of Frye as well.
With Serge coming in he brings that trait back, but also with that his unicorn skill set of being an elite interior defender. His ability to open the floor is going to open up the offensive end and he's going to elevate the entire team on the defensive end.
5 Man Unit Performance
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/paytoel01/lineups/2016/#lineups-5-man::none
Last year the 5 man lineup of Elf, Fournier, Harris, Frye, Vuc had a whopping +7 PPG differential per 100 possessions. It also was Elf's most played 5 man unit with over 330 total minutes, indicating this was not a fluke. Elf's next 4 most played 5 man units were with Oladipo. Every single one of them was at least -4.6 PPG differential or more. None of these units contained Frye.
These reasons lead me to believe that Elf has some serious positive and negative synergies built into his game with other players.
Rob's Big Bet
Taking into consideration everything above I think this is Rob's make or break summer as an ORL GM. Instead of dumping Elf because of his deficiencies with some players he's going all in on the Elf. He dumped his worst pairing in the backcourt and went all in replacing Frye with Ibaka, a PF who brings a rare and unique skillset who in theory should compliment Elf.
I think overall the trade is lateral in terms of talent, negative in terms of value, but could bring so much team synergy it was a risk he had to take. I don't think this is the summer deal anyone really thought of or wanted, but it might be what's best for the team in the end.
Payton said. ``I just want to keep getting better and maybe one day I can be the all-time all assists leader for the Magic.’’
