ESPN 5-on-5 About Suns Moves and Future

[NTB]

I thought this needs a seperate topic for itself.

5-on-5 experts debate Phoenix Suns offseason moves - NBA
by NBA Insiders on (original: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16568614/5-5-experts-debate-phoenix-suns-offseason-moves-nba)

With a pair of top-10 draft picks joining the team, is it time for Phoenix to trade away its top guards and fully rebuild? Or should Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe be part of the long-term plans?

Our NBA Insiders debate the future of the Suns.


1. What do you foresee and advise for the Suns this offseason?

Steve Ilardi, ESPN Insider: After sinking to an abysmal 23-59 last season -- their worst record since the Woodstock era -- the Suns have ample incentive to shake things up. The key question: Will they finally go all-in on rebuilding around their young core, or will they keep looking for shortcuts like the Tyson Chandler signing and their fruitless pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge last summer? I would advise full-on rebuild.

They should also take a page this summer out of the 2015 Blazers' offseason playbook: Look for the high-value/low-cost young players available via trade or free agency. And with their raft of young players and the addition of three promising rookies, the team should spend whatever it takes to build their player development program into a Spurs-caliber juggernaut.

Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Signing Tyson Chandler and chasing LaMarcus Aldridge felt like a foolish attempt to build a contender overnight, so I'm glad they went with the long play and drafted Dragan Bender. That should be their focus. This was the NBA's worst team for a brutal stretch last season when it lost 40 of 43 games. The Suns hopefully are building it from scratch.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I'd advise trying to find a taker for Tyson Chandler. As a center who needs a good point guard to feed him accurate lobs, Chandler is miscast for the Suns. I would not try to sign one of the bigger free agents, as that would just bring the Suns back up to mediocrity and hamper their long-term outlook.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The Suns are one of a few teams with a preponderance of prospects and a fuzzy direction. Public rhetoric from the front office suggests they won't be going into a full rebuild, so it's a moot point to suggest they should do so.

Still, Phoenix needs to avoid long-term entanglements with older players. I would throw my cap space at free agents no older than 27, with Nicolas Batum, Harrison Barnes and possibly Hassan Whiteside looking particularly alluring.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I advise patience. If the right deal comes along for the likes of Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight, neither of whom seems to be a fit in Phoenix, the Suns should certainly take it. And if they're concerned that Bledsoe's value is at its peak right now because of his age and series of knee surgeries, this might be the time to strike. But Phoenix's most important offseason work came on draft night.

2. What should the Suns' short-term goals be?

Ilardi: They should embrace the opportunity to grow from within. Their best path back to NBA relevance is to nurture and develop their deep stable of youngsters - Devin Booker, Alex Len, Archie Goodwin, T.J. Warren, Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss and Tyler Ulis. To make sure the kids have ample opportunity to develop, the team probably needs to offload veterans like Chandler and Teletovic ahead of them in the team's depth chart.

Haberstroh: Forget about the playoffs and unload Bledsoe, P.J. Tucker and Chandler to contenders. This is a rebuild. Devin Booker is still a teenager who won't hit his prime for another half-decade, and the same goes for Bender. Short-term goals should be about maximizing the long term.

Engelmann: Developing their young guys: Warren, Booker, and now Bender and Chriss. I'm not a fan of any of their veterans, so I'd be fine with dealing them away if it meant more playing time for the younger players. The summer of 2017, armed with another high draft pick, is when I think they should be attacking.

Doolittle: Even if the Suns push for the playoffs, they need to avoid squandering the developmental minutes of Booker, Len and this year's rookies on stopgap veterans. The ideal would be to hang in the playoff race, retain payroll flexibility and hope the perception of forward momentum puts Phoenix in the picture for upper-tier free agents.

Pelton: Developing Booker and this year's rookies and figuring out which other players on the roster are keepers. Playing respectably is a good short-term goal. Anything involving a number of wins is not.

3. Can Bledsoe and Knight thrive together in the backcourt?

Haberstroh: Coexist? Yes. That pairing was a respectable plus-4.8 per 100 possessions playing with former Sun Markieff Morris, Tucker and Chandler in 177 minutes of action. That's proof that this backcourt can work, but thriving won't happen with this current roster. I'd suggest shopping Bledsoe, who turns 27 in December, but his knee injury will complicate trade talks.

Engelmann: "Thrive" may be too positive a word here. I don't have grave objections to playing two combo guards, and I believe they can certainly coexist. It worked with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Real plus-minus has never been a particular fan of Brandon Knight -- he's rated below -2 the last three years -- so I think the best solution would be to deal him and go forward with Bledsoe and Booker instead. Knight's stock isn't exactly high, though.

Ilardi: The Bledsoe-Knight Experience has been a bust. Yes, the two are effective partners on offense: Knight's all-around scoring and ability to stretch the floor nicely complement Bledsoe's knack for getting to the rim and making plays in the paint.

But Knight has been a major defensive liability. He's too small to guard opposing SGs, but too slow (laterally) to stay in front of opposing PGs. And Knight's awful -3.1 predictive real plus-minus (RPM) suggests that the Suns vastly overpaid for him last summer. They should try to deal him this summer to make room for Devin Booker, their true emerging star at the 2-guard position.

Doolittle: I don't like them as a starting backcourt, especially when you've got bona fide 2-guards like Booker and Archie Goodwin on the upswing. Knight's defense isn't tenable for a 35 MPG player. Since he can play with the ball or off it, and has combo-guard size, I see his path being similar to that of Jamal Crawford.

Pelton: I think they can. Though both Bledsoe and Knight were somewhat more prolific playing separately than together, they were also less efficient. The Bledsoe-Knight backcourt might not be ideal defensively, but I think the greater challenge to it is the desire to find a starting spot for Booker rather than specific problems with the pairing on the court.

4. What's a Suns trade you would like to see?

Ilardi: If I were still working in the Suns' front office, I would suggest shopping Knight to find a taker on his bloated 5-year, $70 million contract. Since Sacramento arguably has the league's least savvy front office, they'd be good place to start the search.

A deal of Knight (-3.1 RPM) for PG Darren Collison (0.1 RPM), Omri Casspi (0.7), and Ben McLemore (-1.6) works under the cap and gives Phoenix three serviceable rotation pieces -- all with only one remaining year under contract -- to add to their young nucleus.

Haberstroh: A sign-and-trade centered around Chandler for Houston's Donatas Motiejunas (a restricted free agent this summer).

Houston will be looking for a veteran center to replace Howard. Chandler played for D'Antoni in New York, so they have a history. If the Cavs hadn't won the title, I'd suggest Bledsoe, a client of LeBron James' same agency, for either Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love, but that ship sailed when that trio won it all.

Engelmann: In a best-case scenario, they deal their two most awful contracts in Knight and Chandler, who make a combined $26 million next season while being below-average NBA players. Chandler for a pick to New York, if the Knicks can't land a free-agent center, seems like an option. Knight might be tough to deal, but I could see the Kings being interested if Rajon Rondo signs elsewhere.

Doolittle: Chandler belongs on a contender. And with Len heading into his fourth year, they've got to find out if he can be the long-term center. Cleveland makes sense as a destination -- Chandler could replace Timofey Mozgov -- with Channing Frye returning to fill the Suns' leadership void. You'd likely need a third team to make the salaries work.

Pelton: Tucker to Cleveland for the rights to Cedi Osman. The Suns would be wise to cash in on Tucker's trade value while he's in the last year of his contract. His $5.3 million salary looks like a bargain compared to the market for 3-and-D role players. He could be an upgraded version of Richard Jefferson for the Cavaliers as a combo forward, and Phoenix would get the rights to the promising Osman, the No. 31 pick in 2015 who turned 21 in April.

5. If the Suns were a stock and you were looking ahead five years, would you buy, sell or hold?

Engelmann: Buy. When you've won 23 games, there aren't many directions to go but up. The Suns would've won more had Bledsoe played more than 31 games. And keep in mind, Suns owner Robert Sarver isn't exactly a fan of a long rebuilding effort, so the Suns will try to compete. The question, then, is whether they'll find themselves in "no man's land" again, winning around 40 games.

Ilardi: Buy. If the Suns' hypothetical share price today is a mere 23 (their win total last season), they're pretty much a lock to double investors' money -- to reach 46 wins -- over the next five years. They may not be much better next season, but barring gross front office malpractice, they simply have too many young assets not to rise back to respectability within the next 3-5 years.

Haberstroh: Hold. I'm not keen on buying a stock run by Robert Sarver, who blamed last year's demise on millennial culture and scapegoated Markieff Morris. I'm not sure about Earl Watson's capabilities as a head coach yet, so it's hard for me to buy. That said, I like the foundation of Booker, Bender and Alex Len. It's been a rough start for GM Ryan McDonough, but the pieces are there.

Doolittle: Hold. There is plenty to work with, and Booker looks like he can become a true foundational player. But I want to see more of all these young players before I truly buy in. I also want a clearer sense of what style of basketball the Suns will be playing on both ends of the floor under Earl Watson.

Pelton: Buy, depending on the price. I'm higher on Bender than just about anyone else is, and if he's as good as I think and Booker as good as everyone else thinks (I remain a tad skeptical given his atrocious defensive stats), the Suns have a core in place with plenty more draft picks on the way.

[thamadkant]

Agree with most of them.


Suns are likely to be in no man's land if they stick with current veterans without adding a superstar.

Since a chance for a superstar is remote....
Trade veterans for expiring contracts.... Give the youth the minutes and see how they turn out.
The most fun games from last season was with the Booker/Goodwin back court... Chandler helped but he will be disgruntled if he stays again on a losing squad.

Signing Teletovic without adding a superstar is redundant. Teletovic wants to stay because he gets to jack up shots whenever he gets the ball. Plus he knows the Suns have cap room.. I think he is thinking about himself primarily, does he even care about winning? Maybe maybe not.

[King4Day]

I like the Kings trade idea to move Knight there. Not sure if they'd do it but I would. Also, if we can do the Cleveland trade (Either the Tucker one or the Chandler one, or both), I'd be up for it too.
This would ultimately assure us a high pick next year and allow us to start anew in the 2017 free agency period.

[Damkac]

a best-case scenario, they deal their two most awful contracts in Knight and Chandler, who make a combined $26 million next season while being below-average NBA players.

If he think those contracts are awful he should just wait to see what contracts will be signed this offseason.

[Ghost of Kleine]

I like the Kings trade idea to move Knight there. Not sure if they'd do it but I would. Also, if we can do the Cleveland trade (Either the Tucker one or the Chandler one, or both), I'd be up for it too.
This would ultimately assure us a high pick next year and allow us to start anew in the 2017 free agency period.

This is exactly what I'm talking about also.....Next years draft is Uber loaded with franchise cornerstone players and high potential game changers. And 2018s' Draft is loaded with franchise big men the likes of wich haven't been seen in quite some time.

Now admittedly we are going in the right direction, And very possibly on the cusp of turning the corner somewhat back to relevance.


However, Unless we know with a very high degree of certainty that we will be in play for one of the marquee players in free agency in the next year or so,

How can we not try and secure a failsafe in acquiring a high potential lottery pick in one of these next two drafts.

Now by my estimation, And barring some unforeseen miracle.....These teams will most surely find themselves in the top 5 of the lottery in the next two or three drafts.

Sacramento kings,Los Angeles Lakers, and Chicago bulls. In my opinion, It would be irresponsible and more to the point foolhardy to not acquire an unconditional first rounder from one of these teams within reason.

Trade Ideas for these teams? Also whom do you guys believe will fall into the top end of the lottery within the next two years drafts?

[batsmasher]

skipped through everyone and just read Pelton. Cos he actually isn't a nut that talks in pure hyperbole.

[MathiasPW]

I actually thought most comments, except for Peltons, were a bunch of BS without a clue.

Assuming that our record is representative of our talent as if we didn't have injuries and therefore we should blow it up is ridiculous.

Saying to get rid of all veterans and go all youth is also ridiculous. It's a formula for implosion.

Saying the stats for BledKnight combo are good but the xperiment was a bust on such a small sample size is also superfluous.

Saying Knights and Chandlers contracts are bloated is silly.

Overall a lot of bad, not well thought comments. Lazy analysis

[BobbieL]

Pelton is good. Sound and not a whack job like Elhassan has become (he is also a hater)

Agree, if you can move Chandler, that would be great. The Houston deal for D-Mo was interesting

Knight to Sac Town - I would go for that as well

The key is smart free agency that matches your core group of players.

[8on]

They're all wrong, about everything. OK then.....moving on

[thamadkant]

They definitely have a point.

Suns should be following Wolves direction.
They should be looking for a veteran leader who wants to mentor the youth.

Chandler wants to compete still, he signed on hoping Aldridge was jumping in too. I'm sure he wants a competitive team.
Teletovic wants a big pay check and a place to produce stats win or lose... I dont mind the second bit... but the first bit?... 15 million a year? Geez.

[saintEscaton]

The siege mentality some Suns fans display is quite comical. "Only we are in the know and anyone who says something to the contrary is an uninformed outsider who doesn't watch games". They are not as off base as you think

[thamadkant]

I agree with some non-Suns fans with their views for the team.

Taking away the purple and orange glasses helps realize the reality of the situation.

Unless Bledsoe becomes a sharp shooting mini version of Lebron, the Suns do not have a legit veteran corner stone to build a championship or even the playoffs. Out East.. sure.. but unfortunately, the Suns have to build a competitive team OUT west.

[darealjuice]

You can bet that if Saint posts, it's negative and/or calling out people for being homers lol

Anyways, the article isn't that bad. They're right that we need to embrace rebuilding, but some of the trades they suggested were not really what people around here like to hear. I don't see us unloading Bledsoe with how he's supposedly taken on a leader role with the team, but Knight can bounce if we get the right price. Chandler can hit the road too, but I don't want to give up any assets to take him away. The Kanter for PJ and Chandler trade that BW did in the mock off season wouldn't be too bad, for example.

[batsmasher]

The siege mentality some Suns fans display is quite comical. "Only we are in the know and anyone who says something to the contrary is an uninformed outsider who doesn't watch games". They are not as off base as you think

It's more like: when you hear and read things that you (factually) know are based on slightly wrong preconceptions or ideas, you take note.

There are very few guys in the entire industry who are well connected enough and have enough time to have a good grasp on all 30 teams. They're asked to talk, for their job and end up just adding to the cycle of redigested media opinions which aren't exactly right.

It all really comes down to how well connected you are. Zach Lowe is pretty much the pinnacle and shows awesome restraint in giving his opinions. There are way too many guys who aren't well connected enough or actually care enough about their opinion to vet the finer details properly.

eg: Sarver must be a cheapskate. Sarver must be an incompetent owner because of the millennial comments. It's a step in logic which is careless and simplifies things.

And some things are simply guesses: "public rhetoric from the front office suggests they won't be going into a full rebuild", despite there being multiple times on record where McD has said he's prepared for a full rebuild.

It all adds up in the end to creating this slightly inaccurate media circle which just listens to itself.

[mg]

Most of these guys are buying the Suns for the future so it's not all bad. Just need to add a few more young pieces, hopefully a franchise guy from the next draft. Booker, Bender, and maybe Len are a good start. The next two drafts could be crazy good with an ideal opportunity to add a franchise guy. In the meantime keep developing the young kids and move vets that don't want to be part of the process.

[RaisingArizona]

[AtheJ415]

a best-case scenario, they deal their two most awful contracts in Knight and Chandler, who make a combined $26 million next season while being below-average NBA players.

If he think those contracts are awful he should just wait to see what contracts will be signed this offseason.

Exactly. Harrison Barnes alone may end up making this. Noah is about to get $18 a year. With Rose that's like $40 million combined for a worse combo.

Frankly, while I like some of the trade ideas (such as Tucker to Cle), most of this analysis is lazy.

[AtheJ415]

They definitely have a point.

Suns should be following Wolves direction.
They should be looking for a veteran leader who wants to mentor the youth.

Chandler wants to compete still, he signed on hoping Aldridge was jumping in too. I'm sure he wants a competitive team.
Teletovic wants a big pay check and a place to produce stats win or lose... I dont mind the second bit... but the first bit?... 15 million a year? Geez.

I actually think we should be following the 76ers direction. Sign an Elton Brand type at vet minimum. Ronnie Price can be that for guard, but we need another at big. Dump Chandler's contract, dump Tucker to free up minutes and get a late first and/or another youngster, and dump Knight for picks or a quality youngster.

[Mulhollanddrive]

How come it's so obvious to neutrals what we should do.

The only issue is that we could trade Knight, Chandler, Tucker etc... but you'd still have to take on equivilent salary to get to the cap, so you're likely to get an equally middling player in return, which gives McDonough no incentive really. I don't think he'd target more picks, we're already +2 futures and could have 8-9 rookies on our team in 12 months.

[Damkac]

I will be very happy if the only move Suns will do will be resigning Mirza on 2-3 years deal. I really like the team as it is now. I wanted to trade Bledsoe for high pick and rebuild completely but I have changed my mind. Firstly because how much he is involved in the team this summer. He really wants to be the leader. Secondly because how great will his contract looks with the increased cap-space.
I personally wouldn't do any trades. Unless there are disgruntled players. Possible candidates are Knight (if he won't be starting), Goodwin (if he won't get any minutes) and Chandler (if the team won't be good). Knight is with rest of the team right now so I hope his morale will be good. Archie and Tyson however I could see moved.
If nobody gets traded, Suns are very strong at guards with Bledsoe, Booker nad Knight. I think they should take advantage of this and limit playing time of those 3 to about 30 minutes a game. This would help them keep their energy and avoid injuries. This would be good especially for Bledsoe. I know most coach would play their best players as much as they can but imo preserving our guards is a good idea and could potetnially bring more wins than playing them like 36 minutes a game. For sure there will be some small-ball with Book at 3 but I would rather limit this and finally give more playing time to Warren (if he is healthy of course).
I'm just excited for this coming season.