Portland - 2016 Offseason

[DaVoiceMaster]

I agree with Wiz. Who is that 3rd guard you seek? I've been a proponent of signing Sessions as the 3rd guard. I have no clue what type of contract he will command though.

[DusterBuster]

IF the Kings sign Crabbe,would you be interested to see McLemore come this way? I still believe in his talent, just think Sacramento wasnt the right place/situation for him.

Sigh im a bigger fan of AC game over McLemore, but that said, if kings overpay for allen.. McLemore isnt a horrible replacement, i think his defense is good.. but he cant really shot

He CAN shoot, that's the thing. I always said his shot is one of the most beautiful ones since RayRay. BUT his confidence is 95% gone. I think if you can get that up, you've got a perfect Crabbe replacemen.

Stotts offense does amazing things for players shooting percentages. Almost every player who plays in his offense sees noticeable jumps in their percentages under Stotts because his motion offense gets guys so many wide open looks and he encourages guys to shoot it no matter what.

I'd be totally fine with McLemore as Crabbe's replacement and honestly don't think Portland would lose a beat with him in place of AC.

[The Sebastian Express]

I would miss Allen's hair, however, and beard.

[Wizenheimer]

I agree with Wiz. Who is that 3rd guard you seek? I've been a proponent of signing Sessions as the 3rd guard. I have no clue what type of contract he will command though.

that's the thing, it's hard to find a perfect 3rd guard. We've talked about Evan Turner, who would fit the bill as a playmaker and defender, but he's a poor perimeter shooter. Lance Stevenson just became a free agent, and he can defend and make plays, but he's loaded with baggage

I don't think Sessions is a very good defender, and I'm not sure a PG would make for a good 3rd guard for Portland, but I'm not necessarily opposed to the idea. Shaun Livingston would be a good fit, but it sure looks like the Warriors want to keep him. Norris Cole is a decent defender, but he's not dynamic enough to be a major minutes guy

what worries me though: as far as I'm concerned, the Blazers have 1 core player right now, and that's Lillard. I know CJ is viewed as a core player, so I'll add him, reluctantly. It's worth pointing out that CJ was 3rd on the Blazers in PER, and 4th on the team in Win Shares, Win Shares/48, Box Plus/Minus, and Value over replacement. Lillard was 1st in 4 of those 5 categories and 2nd in the 5th (winshares/48)...that's what you expect from a core player and #1 option. CJ, not so much

anyway, Portland has 2 core players, at most. The rest all role players. To me, it's logical to build your core then fill in with role players based upon the core. Yet, if the tea leaves are being read accurately, if Portland goes to plan B and re-signs Harkless, Meyers and Crabbe, the Blazers will be close to being capped out and only have a couple of core players. And with CJ and Plumlee due extensions in 2017, it could be capped out squared. A capped out roster of role players. I don't care whether the salary cap is 60 million or a 160 million, that doesn't seem a good path to me

so to answer your question, I don't think the Blazers should commit long-term to less then decently ideal players, and Crabbe is not anything close to ideal

something else: we're talking about matching Crabbe in the 12-15 million a year range. Consider this, if CJ gets a contract similar to Lillard, and many people think he will, Dame/CJ will be making 56 million a year. That would be more the 50% of the salary cap if it was set at 108-110 million in 2017; and after that it's projected to fall by 5 or 6 million, at the same time Lillard & CJ will get their 7.5% step raises. Now go back to 2017 and imagine Crabbe making 14 million. For chrissakes, that would put Dame/CJ/Crabbe at 70 million dollars in salary; that would be 64% of that year's salary cap and well over 50% of the payroll under the luxury tax....for maybe the worst defensive back court in the league. I don't care what anybody says, that would be Billy King like dumb management

[DusterBuster]

Hell man, if the Kings want him to the point where they're willing to overpay for him AND surrender assets.... bleed them dry for him as far as I'm concerned. True for any team that wants him really. People are gonna see really quickly just how limited Crabbe's game really is once he's a starter, earning 12+ mil and once teams scout him enough..... You'll be paying a ton of money for an average catch and shoot jumpershooter who's a mediocre defender.

In other FA news, Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders is claiming he's hearing Mo Harkless may get north of 12mil per, which worries me as well. I like Harkless more than Crabbe, but even 12 for him is iffy for me. I just don't think any of those guys are irreplaceable to where if they're gonna start costing this much, Portland can't find a more reasonably priced replacement.

The only downside I really have of needing to find replacements is the amount of roster turnover there would be again. I do like roster consistency.

[Wizenheimer]

In other FA news, Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders is claiming he's hearing Mo Harkless may get north of 12mil per, which worries me as well. I like Harkless more than Crabbe, but even 12 for him is iffy for me. I just don't think any of those guys are irreplaceable to where if they're gonna start costing this much, Portland can't find a more reasonably priced replacement.

if prognosticators are right, the Blazers could end up paying close to 40 million/year for Crabbe, Harkless, and Meyers. That's truly frightening.

Blazers have the worst possible timing. They have gobs of cap-space at the same time about 20 other teams have gobs of cap-space. And they have 3 RFA's that may very well attract some of that cap-space gobs.

I really wonder what Gerald Henderson will get. Portland's 3 RFA's will likely get paid premiums for their perceived potential. But Hendo is a 28 year old, 7 year veteran in the what-you-see-is-what-you-get category. I'd much rather pay Henderson 8-9 million a year then Crabbe 13-14 million a year, or more

[Wizenheimer]

in other news, Durant has scheduled the teams he will be meeting with and Portland isn't on the list. I guess that means the Blazers won't be wasting time investing in the Durant sweepstakes

has any free agent scheduled a meeting with the Blazers yet?

[Masterfully]

Portland can't afford to strike out in free agency.

The only thing worse is to lose your own players to free agency.

Ideally you bring in help AND bring back your guys. Unless you want to lose and lose you're probably going to need to overpay.

[Beeboywhoo]

Im starting to feel nervous, I think CJ or lillard gets moved just for the sake of finances.. which really sucks

[Andre 2999]

I agree with Wiz. Who is that 3rd guard you seek? I've been a proponent of signing Sessions as the 3rd guard. I have no clue what type of contract he will command though.

Although he's not a free agent, I personally would be a fan of getting Darren Collison from the Kings. He has good size, he can defend well, he can shoot, and he's a decent playmaker.

[Andre 2999]

Im starting to feel nervous, I think CJ or lillard gets moved just for the sake of finances.. which really sucks

Seriously?? ...This summer??? I would be seriously shocked if Lillard got moved. Actually that's an understatement, it's inconceivable that Lillard gets moved this summer. CJ getting moved seems more realistic, if the right deal comes along, but even then I think there's only a 1% chance of that happening. Why are you so nervous?

[Billy]

I don't want to sidebar things too much, but this seemed like a good thread to ask the question:

If Neil Olshey is unable to attract a quality free agent (definition of quality is entirely up to you ) with the cap space does that change your perspective on his abilities as a GM?

[Norm2953]

It's going to be a wild ride in the NBA starting at 901 PM tomorrow night.

I would find it hard to believe Portland would totally strike out in FA for while I remain
cautiously optimistic we'll sign Whiteside, we all know if we're competing against the
glamor lights of LA and Miami and no state taxes in Texas, it never seems to end
well for Portland.

I could see us end up opting to more or less punt to 2017 while doing a S/T for Crabbe if
another team wants to over pay for him.

[Norm2953]

Im starting to feel nervous, I think CJ or lillard gets moved just for the sake of finances.. which really sucks

Seriously?? ...This summer??? I would be seriously shocked if Lillard got moved. Actually that's an understatement, it's inconceivable that Lillard gets moved this summer. CJ getting moved seems more realistic, if the right deal comes along, but even then I think there's only a 1% chance of that happening. Why are you so nervous?

Dame is PPP which is very unlikely he would get moved.

[Masterfully]

I'll eat my favorite shirt if Lillard or McCollum get traded. Not happening. No way.

[DusterBuster]

has any free agent scheduled a meeting with the Blazers yet?

Nothing has leaked yet. One very flimsy rumor about Whiteside, but that's about it. Olshey has done a pretty good job at keeping his plans out of the media, assuming he's doing that of course.

if prognosticators are right, the Blazers could end up paying close to 40 million/year for Crabbe, Harkless, and Meyers. That's truly frightening.

I'm right there with you. I like these guys well enough and all, but I don't 40 million dollars like them. They're all really just role players, and role players that can be easily replaced. Its why I think it's nutty a team like the Kings and their fans are drooling over the idea of paying 14mil for Crabbe AND willing to give up assets to do so. Like.... really?

[Norm2953]

Crabbe went to school at Cal is a bit of a homecoming for him but talk of a KK + Mclemore in
a S&T for Crabbe seems like a NO type of move for Portland.

[DusterBuster]

According to........ Canzano...... (I know what EVERYONE is going to say, but hey may, there's **** all news out there regarding Portland's FA plans right now)

[tweet]https://twitter.com/johncanzanobft/status/748235439769673729[/tweet]

[DaVoiceMaster]

I'd be okay with just bringing back Harkless and Henderson. Bye Leonard & Crabbe.

[Ripcity4life]

I believe Quicks Tweet more then zano's

BTW Quicks tweet:
Trying to determine Olshey's plan in FA, but so far agents tight-lipped. One bit of info: Blazers have NOT shown interest in Ryan Anderson