"The Lakers’ Offseason Plan Actually Makes Sense" - Tjarks @ The Ringer

[Gek]

https://theringer.com/lakers-sign-timofey-mozgov-luol-deng-2016-nba-free-agency-59da626f5a4e#.d8n4g6fc5

It doesn’t matter all that much if Mozgov and Deng are overpaid, because the Lakers didn’t have many other places to spend their money. They couldn’t even get a meeting with Kevin Durant. The best players in the NBA do not want to play for bad teams, no matter what market they play in or how much history they have. The Lakers have nothing to sell to guys who want to compete for a championship, as they found out last year in their meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge, which made them a punch line around the league.

There’s a very good chance that the contracts for Deng and Mozgov, who are both on the wrong side of 30, become weights around the Lakers’ necks three years from now. But they have the capacity to absorb the money now because all of their best players are still on rookie deals. Should everything go according to plan and the Lakers become the contender they hope to be, they’ll be able to move either player in the final season by attaching picks to them. If history has shown us anything, it is that there are no untradable contracts.

The Lakers’ free-agency haul thus far signifies a new stage of the franchise rebuild; they don’t want any more high lottery picks. They have a young core in place and they are committed to developing them. Deng and Mozgov aren’t stealth tanking signings like Carlos Boozer; this team is built with competitiveness in mind.
There is no quick fix in L.A. To become a viable free-agent destination, the Lakers need Russell, Ingram, Clarkson, and Randle to become stars. If those guys can live up to their potential, their future is bright.

Good to see something written with some reason to it given the initial blow back and overreactions.

[MelosSoreWrist]

The parts you posted....

-So basically, Lakers couldnt find other takers so might as well overpay to Mozgov and Deng.

-Their contracts will eventually be bad but when it does you can give up 1st round picks to unload them.

-The FO likes their young core. They dont need any more blue chip prospects (WTF).


None of that makes me feel any better about this offseason.

[Gek]

The parts you posted....

-So basically, Lakers couldnt find other takers so might as well overpay to Mozgov and Deng.

-Their contracts will eventually be bad but when it does you can give up 1st round picks to unload them.

-The FO likes their young core. They dont need any more blue chip prospects (WTF).


None of that makes me feel any better about this offseason.

It mostly counteracts the people that are way too unrealistic about it and in general is about finding the silver lining, primarily overpaying a bit to get guys to come in and set a tone for the team. we've had swaggy and lou looking over the little ones and have just tanked (losing, the same thing Philly gets **** on for).

[lake_show]

The parts you posted....

-So basically, Lakers couldnt find other takers so might as well overpay to Mozgov and Deng.

-Their contracts will eventually be bad but when it does you can give up 1st round picks to unload them.

-The FO likes their young core. They dont need any more blue chip prospects (WTF).


None of that makes me feel any better about this offseason.

Hate to say it bud... But no one cares.

[ArC_man]

The parts you posted....

-So basically, Lakers couldnt find other takers so might as well overpay to Mozgov and Deng.

-Their contracts will eventually be bad but when it does you can give up 1st round picks to unload them.

-The FO likes their young core. They dont need any more blue chip prospects (WTF).


None of that makes me feel any better about this offseason.

It's more about switching from an asset acquisition phase into an asset development phase. Young players don't develop as quickly when they're in a poor environment (like last year) and it costs $$$ to bring in solid professionals to improve the work environment.

[MelosSoreWrist]

The parts you posted....

-So basically, Lakers couldnt find other takers so might as well overpay to Mozgov and Deng.

-Their contracts will eventually be bad but when it does you can give up 1st round picks to unload them.

-The FO likes their young core. They dont need any more blue chip prospects (WTF).


None of that makes me feel any better about this offseason.

It's more about switching from an asset acquisition phase into an asset development phase. Young players don't develop as quickly when they're in a poor environment (like last year) and it costs $$$ to bring in solid professionals to improve the work environment.

I can buy that. But do you have to get guys in their 30s for 4 years who also will take playing time away from the young guys? Randomly (because I dont know their exact situation) if you signed guys like Tiago Splitter and Mbah a Moute, wouldnt you get a similar positive effect without taking away minutes or taking up salary cap space in future seasons? Also keeping 2017 pick might be more valuable than any asset currently on the team now.

[Gek]

Coaches/FO choice there. It's Luke so I'll wait for him to screw until I knock the decisions. We'll never know who all they reached out to and what responses we got.

[ArC_man]

The parts you posted....

-So basically, Lakers couldnt find other takers so might as well overpay to Mozgov and Deng.

-Their contracts will eventually be bad but when it does you can give up 1st round picks to unload them.

-The FO likes their young core. They dont need any more blue chip prospects (WTF).


None of that makes me feel any better about this offseason.

It's more about switching from an asset acquisition phase into an asset development phase. Young players don't develop as quickly when they're in a poor environment (like last year) and it costs $$$ to bring in solid professionals to improve the work environment.

I can buy that. But do you have to get guys in their 30s for 4 years who also will take playing time away from the young guys? Randomly (because I dont know their exact situation) if you signed guys like Tiago Splitter and Mbah a Moute, wouldnt you get a similar positive effect without taking away minutes or taking up salary cap space in future seasons? Also keeping 2017 pick might be more valuable than any asset currently on the team now.

1) There's enough playing time to go around unless you think it's critical to get Anthony Brown and Marcelo Huertas (assuming he's re-signed) significant minutes.

2) Tiago Splitter would make more than Mozgov (probably 18-20M/year), Mbah a Moute would make less than Deng (probably 12M/year), you end up paying roughly the same amount of salary. I don't think they would sign here unless you gave them long contracts. There is no dream land where FAs sign short term contracts to sit on the pine for a 17 win team, not when all of the other teams have similar money they could offer.

3) Luckily while we had BScott, prioritizing winning actually led to us losing (however it slowed the development of our young players). Luke's priority is going to be the development of the young players. If Luke ends up the coach that we think he's supposed to be, prioritizing development will actually lead to winning and there will be little to no chance we keep the 2017 pick. At some point, the value of the collective development of our young players will overshadow adding an additional young player with potential; I think we've hit that point after this year's draft.

[MelosSoreWrist]

Coaches/FO choice there. It's Luke so I'll wait for him to screw until I knock the decisions. We'll never know who all they reached out to and what responses we got.

I did not like the Brown, DAntoni or the Scott hirings. I do like the Luke hiring with our young group.

Having said that, I dont think head coaches, especially young first time head coaches should have too much influence on player personnel decisions. GMs/Presidents need to weigh long term/short term goals and prioritize them whereas a head coach usually are more concerned about winning game to game. Consider the fact the last 3 coaches failed to finish out their contracts and how that may factor into a coach's mind.

Hypothetically, Luke wanting Deng and Mozgov, because he feels those players will produce the most wins may not be the best for the organization going forward into future seasons even if he correct in his assessment. The cost of player developments and cap holds preventing major signings in offseasons to come are some of the factors GMs must consider moreso than a coach.

So I guess what I am saying is, I dont like the signings. The FO hasnt shown anything in recent years that would temper my feelings at all. And even though I like Luke Walton, and he endorses these signings, it does little to build my confidence in the FO decision making.

[Sedale Threatt]

It's more about switching from an asset acquisition phase into an asset development phase.

Yes. Obviously we still have a major talent deficiency. We aren't anywhere close to even thinking about contending yet. But the next step is to try to improve/develop enough that we can actually start attracting some of the name free agents we're going to (probably) need to get there. I guess you could try to tank again and hope you get to keep our No. 1 pick again, but it's a risky proposition. So I don't mind trying to win 30-35 games this season, build an actual culture and start moving forward. With the cap spiking again next year, and continuing to move forward, these deals aren't nearly as bad as they seem. The NBA has moved into a completely new financial realm; it's going to take time for everyone to get used to the new standards.

[MelosSoreWrist]

It's more about switching from an asset acquisition phase into an asset development phase. Young players don't develop as quickly when they're in a poor environment (like last year) and it costs $$$ to bring in solid professionals to improve the work environment.

I can buy that. But do you have to get guys in their 30s for 4 years who also will take playing time away from the young guys? Randomly (because I dont know their exact situation) if you signed guys like Tiago Splitter and Mbah a Moute, wouldnt you get a similar positive effect without taking away minutes or taking up salary cap space in future seasons? Also keeping 2017 pick might be more valuable than any asset currently on the team now.

1) There's enough playing time to go around unless you think it's critical to get Anthony Brown and Marcelo Huertas (assuming he's re-signed) significant minutes.

2) Tiago Splitter would make more than Mozgov (probably 18-20M/year), Mbah a Moute would make less than Deng (probably 12M/year), you end up paying roughly the same amount of salary. I don't think they would sign here unless you gave them long contracts. There is no dream land where FAs sign short term contracts to sit on the pine for a 17 win team, not when all of the other teams have similar money they could offer.

3) Luckily while we had BScott, prioritizing winning actually led to us losing (however it slowed the development of our young players). Luke's priority is going to be the development of the young players. If Luke ends up the coach that we think he's supposed to be, prioritizing development will actually lead to winning and there will be little to no chance we keep the 2017 pick. At some point, the value of the collective development of our young players will overshadow adding an additional young player with potential; I think we've hit that point after this year's draft.

1) I went over this in another thread. Randle averaged 28 min a game last season. Nance averaged 20 min a game last season. Naturally their min per game should increase a bit this season. However with the signing of Mozgov and Deng (who is mainly effective as a PF) and factor in a few mins for Black and Zubac and those minutes probably will go down. I am not talking about Brown and Huertas as that is not affected by the Deng Mozgov signings.

2) Jeff Green signed a 1 year $15 mil contract. That was the type of signing I felt the Lakers needed. Like I wrote before, I quickly scanned a list and picked out Splitter and Mbah a Moute. We will see what they sign for. I dont think they sign for as much as you are projecting. I might be wrong but that seems out of wack even in this NBA wackiness. We will see.

3) I think the Lakers are making moves to go from the 2nd worst team in the NBA to trying to be the 6th worst team in the NBA. And its not worth it. It may cost player development. It may cost a high draft pick and potential franchise player. It definitely costs capspace the next 4 years. And for what? To get to 29 wins and the winning culture that brings??

[Gus McCrae]

Well the 1 year deals are cool but 1)I don't think Gov or Deng would've accepted that and 2) I don't think they'd be as invested in contributing to our youth's success on a 1 year contract since they'd be trying to showcase their talents for their next contract.

Also, we're not the 76ers. I was listening to Evan Turners interview on JJ Reddicks podcast about the difference between playing in Philly and Boston and he said how losing over and over just wears on you to where he even questioned how much he wanted to play basketball. Once he hit Boston he was rejuvenated. The tank atmosphere is toxic if it goes too long. I'd love to have another top 3 pick but we already have 3 top 6 picks and Clarkson it's time for them to learn how to win.

As for PT, deng and Mozgov aren't going to prevent our core 4 from getting 30 minutes a night. Maybe Ingram but it's his first year and I'm sure by the end of the season he'll get 30 mpg. Can't wait for the death lineup of Russell/Clarkson/Ingram/Deng/Randle

[76ciology]

Basically, it just says the team respects the 3 year unspoken timeframe in rebuilding that they will try their best making the play-offs from here on out.

[zuju]

Actually I don't think Mozgov could play 82 games a season, he may miss some games through out the course of the season
Not to mention that Zubac is not playing this season NBA games I guess, much similar to Anthony Brown last season
That is, there is still lots of time for Nance/Bass/Black to play as Center and wouldn't hinder the young core development

Will Deng be a PF rather than a SF? I doubt that too. But he gave the versatility for different line ups

Though I like the contracts of Big Al, dudley and M Williams much more, I am not oppose to the Deng and Mozgov signing

[OleSchool]

Also, we're not the 76ers. I was listening to Evan Turners interview on JJ Reddicks podcast about the difference between playing in Philly and Boston and he said how losing over and over just wears on you to where he even questioned how much he wanted to play basketball. Once he hit Boston he was rejuvenated. The tank atmosphere is toxic if it goes too long. I'd love to have another top 3 pick but we already have 3 top 6 picks and Clarkson it's time for them to learn how to win.

Im sorry but this is just crap.

When Turner was with the Sixers he was on a vet laden team. Also, Turner contributed to that losing. (as a side note; the 3 1/2 years Turner was here we made the PO's 2 of those years?) He was the 2nd pick in the draft and wasn't a very good basketball player. The reason why he got rejuvenated when he went to Bos is he accepted his "true" role, which is/was a 7/8 man off the bench.

Also, why wasn't he "rejuvenated" when he was traded to Indiana? No offense but Indy was a better team then the Celts. So where was this rejuvenation in Indy? Ill tell you where it was, he still thought he was a starter in this league.

[Gek]

Coaches/FO choice there. It's Luke so I'll wait for him to screw until I knock the decisions. We'll never know who all they reached out to and what responses we got.

Hypothetically, Luke wanting Deng and Mozgov, because he feels those players will produce the most wins may not be the best for the organization going forward into future seasons even if he correct in his assessment. The cost of player developments and cap holds preventing major signings in offseasons to come are some of the factors GMs must consider moreso than a coach.

I don't believe it's purely most wins, it's a win/cost/mentorship balance. maybe Luke wants to sign a big and wants Mozgov for that - who knows (or maybe he just owes Putin a favor). Also with the projected salary cap increase (most have been higher than projected in this TV deal), the salary will be less impactful in following seasons. With a projection of $108 mil next year that's over 2% less of the cap (which is over $2mil/year salary). The salary cap is going up over 10% next year and went up over 30% since last season. That means these $16mil/year guys were $12mil last year. It won't keep going up so rapidly, but you get the picture. Small $ that decrease their impact and if packaged with a pick could land us the rotation players we need once our core has developed. Lakers weren't signing a top tier FA next summer without one coming this summer, which required one coming last summer. After Aldridge the FO got the message.

TL;DR When the core is a few years older, the contracts of Mozgov/Deng will be expiring and easier to move because they'll be less of a cap hit in 4 seasons as a %.

*i think i did the math right.

[Gek]

1) I went over this in another thread. Randle averaged 28 min a game last season. Nance averaged 20 min a game last season. Naturally their min per game should increase a bit this season. However with the signing of Mozgov and Deng (who is mainly effective as a PF) and factor in a few mins for Black and Zubac and those minutes probably will go down. I am not talking about Brown and Huertas as that is not affected by the Deng Mozgov signings.

I'm not worried about minutes. I can't imagine Luke intends to stunt development and I think the salary is meant to capture the players diminishing their minutes over the seasons when they could probably still grab more elsewhere.

2) Jeff Green signed a 1 year $15 mil contract. That was the type of signing I felt the Lakers needed. Like I wrote before, I quickly scanned a list and picked out Splitter and Mbah a Moute. We will see what they sign for. I dont think they sign for as much as you are projecting. I might be wrong but that seems out of wack even in this NBA wackiness. We will see.

Revolving doors don't help build a culture. Mozgov is younger than Splitter (by a little under a year). Rest of their stats aren't too off, Splitter has higher per 36 rpg. This has something to do with Mozgov love from the team as both players have won. Mbah a Moute has been on bad Bucks teams, and has his best season by far as a 76er. Deng was a Duke product and played for some mediocre Chicago team (storied franchise) and Miami (good culture). Deng is ~1.7 years older than Mbah a Moute.

3) I think the Lakers are making moves to go from the 2nd worst team in the NBA to trying to be the 6th worst team in the NBA. And its not worth it. It may cost player development. It may cost a high draft pick and potential franchise player. It definitely costs capspace the next 4 years. And for what? To get to 29 wins and the winning culture that brings??

I think the Lakers filling out their roster with just Nick Young like players again who just want to live in LA for the women, weed and weather is going to cost the players more development. Lakers need a top 1-3 pick to keep it this year, I'm not sure what the odds are on that, but the lottery balls aren't fair. It's a culture of effort next season, not a culture of winning 50 games yet.

[ArC_man]

I can buy that. But do you have to get guys in their 30s for 4 years who also will take playing time away from the young guys? Randomly (because I dont know their exact situation) if you signed guys like Tiago Splitter and Mbah a Moute, wouldnt you get a similar positive effect without taking away minutes or taking up salary cap space in future seasons? Also keeping 2017 pick might be more valuable than any asset currently on the team now.

1) There's enough playing time to go around unless you think it's critical to get Anthony Brown and Marcelo Huertas (assuming he's re-signed) significant minutes.

2) Tiago Splitter would make more than Mozgov (probably 18-20M/year), Mbah a Moute would make less than Deng (probably 12M/year), you end up paying roughly the same amount of salary. I don't think they would sign here unless you gave them long contracts. There is no dream land where FAs sign short term contracts to sit on the pine for a 17 win team, not when all of the other teams have similar money they could offer.

3) Luckily while we had BScott, prioritizing winning actually led to us losing (however it slowed the development of our young players). Luke's priority is going to be the development of the young players. If Luke ends up the coach that we think he's supposed to be, prioritizing development will actually lead to winning and there will be little to no chance we keep the 2017 pick. At some point, the value of the collective development of our young players will overshadow adding an additional young player with potential; I think we've hit that point after this year's draft.

1) I went over this in another thread. Randle averaged 28 min a game last season. Nance averaged 20 min a game last season. Naturally their min per game should increase a bit this season. However with the signing of Mozgov and Deng (who is mainly effective as a PF) and factor in a few mins for Black and Zubac and those minutes probably will go down. I am not talking about Brown and Huertas as that is not affected by the Deng Mozgov signings.

2) Jeff Green signed a 1 year $15 mil contract. That was the type of signing I felt the Lakers needed. Like I wrote before, I quickly scanned a list and picked out Splitter and Mbah a Moute. We will see what they sign for. I dont think they sign for as much as you are projecting. I might be wrong but that seems out of wack even in this NBA wackiness. We will see.

3) I think the Lakers are making moves to go from the 2nd worst team in the NBA to trying to be the 6th worst team in the NBA. And its not worth it. It may cost player development. It may cost a high draft pick and potential franchise player. It definitely costs capspace the next 4 years. And for what? To get to 29 wins and the winning culture that brings??

1) I came up with a minutes chart pretty quickly:
D'Lo (34)/Clarkson (14)
Clarkson (20)/Lou (23)/Ingram (5)
Deng (25)/Ingram (23)
Randle (25)/Larry Nance (18)/Deng (5)
Mozgov (30)/Randle (6)/Nance (12)
8-man rotation with 28 minutes for Ingram (might be too much), 30 minutes for Nance (probably also a bit much), 30 minutes each for the 2 vets, and 34 minutes for Clarkson/Russell/Randle (probably too much as well). There's easily enough minutes to go around, we could probably siphon off 2 minutes from Clarkson/Russell/Randle and bump Lou Will up to ~28 mpg. Zubac's not going to be ready to play this year and I don't care about Black.

2) Jeff Green is an interesting case but he seems to be the only one who signed that type of contract. I think I prefer our Deng signing to the Jeff Green one but to each his own.

3) You're under the assumption that veteran signings hurt the development of our young players while I'm under the exact opposite assumption.

[MelosSoreWrist]

Coaches/FO choice there. It's Luke so I'll wait for him to screw until I knock the decisions. We'll never know who all they reached out to and what responses we got.

Hypothetically, Luke wanting Deng and Mozgov, because he feels those players will produce the most wins may not be the best for the organization going forward into future seasons even if he correct in his assessment. The cost of player developments and cap holds preventing major signings in offseasons to come are some of the factors GMs must consider moreso than a coach.

I don't believe it's purely most wins, it's a win/cost/mentorship balance. maybe Luke wants to sign a big and wants Mozgov for that - who knows (or maybe he just owes Putin a favor). Also with the projected salary cap increase (most have been higher than projected in this TV deal), the salary will be less impactful in following seasons. With a projection of $108 mil next year that's over 2% less of the cap (which is over $2mil/year salary). The salary cap is going up over 10% next year and went up over 30% since last season. That means these $16mil/year guys were $12mil last year. It won't keep going up so rapidly, but you get the picture. Small $ that decrease their impact and if packaged with a pick could land us the rotation players we need once our core has developed. Lakers weren't signing a top tier FA next summer without one coming this summer, which required one coming last summer. After Aldridge the FO got the message.

TL;DR When the core is a few years older, the contracts of Mozgov/Deng will be expiring and easier to move because they'll be less of a cap hit in 4 seasons as a %.

*i think i did the math right.

Its not the exact amount of the contract that bothers me, its the second max slot opportunity next season. You are talking more in a vacuum which I understand. This was my line of thinking as Ive repeated before on this forum. I want Westbrook next off season. But he probably doesnt want to come here by himself. Have a second max slot available so someone can join him. On top of that have young pieces available to trade for a 3rd star/superstar. Depending on how the upcoming season goes, keep Ingram and hopefully a top 3 pick this season. Be open for a trade of Russell, Randle and Clarkson/future pick for a possible big 3.

If that plan fails, oh well, you still have Ingram, Russell, Clarkson, Randle and a good shot at a top 3 pick who may be better than anyone already on the team.

We tossed those opportunities away for in their 30's rotational guys Deng and Mozgov.

[Gus McCrae]

Also, we're not the 76ers. I was listening to Evan Turners interview on JJ Reddicks podcast about the difference between playing in Philly and Boston and he said how losing over and over just wears on you to where he even questioned how much he wanted to play basketball. Once he hit Boston he was rejuvenated. The tank atmosphere is toxic if it goes too long. I'd love to have another top 3 pick but we already have 3 top 6 picks and Clarkson it's time for them to learn how to win.

Im sorry but this is just crap.

When Turner was with the Sixers he was on a vet laden team. Also, Turner contributed to that losing. (as a side note; the 3 1/2 years Turner was here we made the PO's 2 of those years?) He was the 2nd pick in the draft and wasn't a very good basketball player. The reason why he got rejuvenated when he went to Bos is he accepted his "true" role, which is/was a 7/8 man off the bench.

Also, why wasn't he "rejuvenated" when he was traded to Indiana? No offense but Indy was a better team then the Celts. So where was this rejuvenation in Indy? Ill tell you where it was, he still thought he was a starter in this league.

When he went to Indy he had 2 months of the basketball season left and he was in a contract year. So he was surprised that his minutes basically got cut in half and a little upset that his market value got killed. He was a short term rental and everyone knew it. Regardless the main point is playing on a tanking team where the fans start booing you is only effective for so long and I'm glad we're moving past that