Marc Stein - Pistons to make run at Horford

[Snakebites]

Yeah, I don't think we can be positive that we'll be in a higher spot than we were last year.

Its possible though.

You have got to be joking right? So you think we will win the same, or even less games then last year?

Or you think 52 is the 8th seed?

52 is my guess. Doesn't mean I'm positive.

You know, it IS okay not to get standoffish about every single post I make that has anything to do with our future. You're allowed. I won't notice, I promise.

[zeebneeb]

Yeah, I don't think we can be positive that we'll be in a higher spot than we were last year.

Its possible though.

You have got to be joking right? So you think we will win the same, or even less games then last year?

Or you think 52 is the 8th seed?

52 is my guess. Doesn't mean I'm positive.

You know, it IS okay not to get standoffish about every single post I make that has anything to do with our future. You're allowed. I won't notice, I promise.

Agreed. I'm just confused by some posters thinking we signed d-league players, and some going off about some 30yo suns player we "failed" to sign.

It's the same usual crap about pope, and things got me on edge.

Sorry about that, opinions and all.

[Cowology]

I think it's more a reshuffling than a marked improvement overall. The only "talent" that's really come East so far is Ibaka (gave up Oladipo) and Dwight (cancer) who I don't think is an upgrade over Horford. NY should theoretically be improved, but any team lead by Melo & Rose pretty much screams mediocrity and Chicago (also losing Noah & Pau) got worse.

Indy & Boston look improved, but Miami has already lost Deng & Joe Johnson and Wade could be next. And I'm not sure I can be 100% confident in Bosh's health either. CHA already lost Jefferson & Lin and Marvin Williams is still up in the air.

Neither Was or Mil have done anything to make me think they will be any better and both NJ & PHI should continue to suck.

Personally, I think we are a top 5 team. If you concede that CLE is #1 until proven otherwise then you have TOR, BOS, IND and DET as your 2nd tier teams and maybe not a lot separating them. There is usually 1 Cinderella and at least 1-2 teams bitten by the injury bug to throw a wrinkle into things.

Most importantly though... I just plain don't care what other teams are doing. I'm interested in what direction the PISTONS are headed and we continue to trend the right direction. As long as we continue to build on our foundation and improve year over year then I'm a happy camper. I'm not expecting to compete for a championship next season anyway; I'm hoping for HCA in the 1st round and a 2nd round appearance. Anything on top of that is gravy.

[tmorgan]

Love the direction we've taken. Not sure on wins or seed (45-55, 7th-2nd), but plenty of reasons to be optimistic and a heckuva fun team to watch with tons of guys developing, no sour apples, and a clear direction.

[Snakebites]

I think it's more a reshuffling than a marked improvement overall. The only "talent" that's really come East so far is Ibaka (gave up Oladipo) and Dwight (cancer) who I don't think is an upgrade over Horford. NY should theoretically be improved, but any team lead by Melo & Rose pretty much screams mediocrity and Chicago (also losing Noah & Pau) got worse.

Indy & Boston look improved, but Miami has already lost Deng & Joe Johnson and Wade could be next. And I'm not sure I can be 100% confident in Bosh's health either. CHA already lost Jefferson & Lin and Marvin Williams is still up in the air.

Neither Was or Mil have done anything to make me think they will be any better and both NJ & PHI should continue to suck.

Personally, I think we are a top 5 team. If you concede that CLE is #1 until proven otherwise then you have TOR, BOS, IND and DET as your 2nd tier teams and maybe not a lot separating them. There is usually 1 Cinderella and at least 1-2 teams bitten by the injury bug to throw a wrinkle into things.

Most importantly though... I just plain don't care what other teams are doing. I'm interested in what direction the PISTONS are headed and we continue to trend the right direction. As long as we continue to build on our foundation and improve year over year then I'm a happy camper. I'm not expecting to compete for a championship next season anyway; I'm hoping for HCA in the 1st round and a 2nd round appearance. Anything on top of that is gravy.

I think Boston will be ahead of that pack of second tier teams, I don't see any justification for thinking we could be better than them. We weren't this year and they just added who will very likely be the best free agent to change teams.

The Hornets could be in the mix for top 5. They played some of their best ball with Al Jefferson out, are keeping Marvin Williams, and should be getting MKG back, who missed all of the season with injury.

New York depends so much on the development of Porzingis and the health of their new additions that they're tough to gauge, plus they could be gaining Dwayne Wade. I don't think significant improvement from then is out of the question at all, but things could also go horribly wrong.

[MotownMadness]

I see us as a 5-6 seed with 50 wins. I'm satisfied with that for now and would like to see us get into the second round now this year.

[Todd3]

Don't you realize other teams get better within too? It's not like every player from last year stays the same and the Pistons players are the only ones allowed to get better.

If they're getting better AND adding better players/coaches and we're just getting better within, which team is going to improve more?

I'm not saying we're doomed, but I don't like how we approached this offseason and think we needed to be bolder to get to the next level.Going for Horford was great, but going from Horford to Leuer not so much. Seems like we could've had a better plan B to improve. Not talking PF, just in general. We don't get Horford, so sign another legit talent instead at another spot, either to start or come off bench. So we at least upgrade our talent base.

I agree that we need to be bold, but I'm not disappointed in this off season. SVG tried but you can't sign big name FAs if they don't want to come here.

I'm still on the trade for Jimmy Butler train. Maybe not now, but if the time comes that the Bulls decide to deal him and commit to a hard rebuild I hope SVG is all over it.

yeah trades are still possible. I wasn't saying we had to sign Horford/Durant for it to be a successful offseason, but we should be able to get the next group players like Gordon/Afflalo. Either would've made a bigger difference than Ish/Leuer imo, whether starting or off the bench.

[Snakebites]

Afflalo has not yet been shown to be a guy that helps you win games at all.

And I have no idea why you're so fixated on Gordon. He's an undersized shooting guard who's only missed fewer than 20 games once in his 8 year career, and he barely made it then. I would be appalled if we signed him for over 13 million per year over four years like the Rockets just did.

[DocRI]

Does anyone else feel like the Al Horford Sweepstakes played out like a game on "Let's Make a Deal!"?

"Stan Van Gundy, you chose door #1, let's see what's behind it ... you've won a Veg-O-Matic! It's nowhere near a car, but it's a handy kitchen appliance you'll actually use!" (i.e. Jon Leuer on a fair market contract)

"Daryl Morey, you chose door #2, let's see what's behind it ... it's a year's worth of filet mignons from Omaha Steaks! Again, it's not a car, but it's an expensive prize and you'll enjoy it!" (i.e. Ryan Anderson for $20M per season)

"Danny Ainge, you chose door #3, let's see what's behind it ... it's the brand new car! You're the big winner!" (i.e. Horford)

"Ernie Grunfeld, that leaves you with door #4, let's see what's behind it ... it's a live donkey! Sorry, better luck next time!" (i.e. paying Ian Mahinmi $16M per season)

[tmorgan]

Eric Gordon is an extremely talented player... that we definitely needed to avoid. He's clearly fragile, and there are only so many shots to go around. I know this doesn't bother Todd, as his plan would be to make KCP a defensive specialist bench player, but that's not SVG's plan, so there was no room for Gordon. You don't pay a fragile combo guard 13 million a year to play 20 minutes off the bench and take shots from all the players you're trying to develop.

SVG wants to win, but he's also playing the long game here with player development. I'd bet Ish Smith is fine with going back to being pass-first, and Leuer is coming in knowing he's filling a particular role -- stretch big for 15 minutes tops unless he's on fire or the matchups favor him.

We added these two guys because they filled needs and know their roles. The future of this team is contingent on the continued development of Drummond, Stanimal, and to a lesser extent Harris, KCP, Reggie, and Ellenson. SVG isn't going to screw that up. It just so happens that we're talented enough to be a playoff team fairly early in the process.

[Pharaoh]

Rotation after Baynes leaves after next season looks pretty strong:

Dre, JL
Harris, King Henry
Mook, SJ
KCP
RJ, Ish

By that point SIX of them would have 2 years playing side by side and ALL of them would have played at least one season together

Think about that: a legit 9-man rotation that has stayed together for 12 months!

Continuity doesn't fix everything but it's a key component in the success of the upper echelon

[tmorgan]

Rotation after Baynes leaves after next season looks pretty strong:

Dre, JL
Harris, King Henry
Mook, SJ
KCP
RJ, Ish

By that point SIX of them would have 2 years playing side by side and ALL of them would have played at least one season together

Think about that: a legit 9-man rotation that has stayed together for 12 months!

Continuity doesn't fix everything but it's a key component in the success of the upper echelon

Yeah, the opening of the window of contention is coming faster than you might think. If we don't develop, it doesn't matter, but if we do and start winning, players start getting expensive...

2016-2017: A growth year. Bench improves. Playoffs, maybe HCA, hopefully at least a series win.
2017-2018: The window opens. Third year of big six, barring trades. Nine or even ten (Bullock? Hilliard?) guys come back.
2018-2019: Much like the previous, but even more experience. If we aren't contending here, we aren't going to.
2019-2020: Mook isn't cheap. Harris' contract is up. SJ gets paid. We've either achieved something already or we'll need to pay a lot of money to give the same players another chance to get there. The window may not have closed, but it's getting replaced with some really expensive glass.

I'm sure there won't be THAT much continuity (ten+ players) for the next four years, but you get the idea. The window opens a year from now, and there's two years to show something before serious decisions about "tear it down or keep it going" begin.

It may seem harsh, but it's still a better window and better continuity than 80% of the league over that period.

[flow]

Why?

To me, every time a East roster improves, its a bad thing for us. They are still beatable, but will be better than they were last season. If they get Durant, thats a different story completely.

The East is much improved. NY got Noah/Rose, ORL got Ibaka/Biyombo/Vogel, BOS got Horford, IND got Teague/Jefferson & could trade for Gay., ATL will still be in the playoffs with Dwight, MIA/TOR/CHA/WAS will still be in the mix, CLE are the champs...

That's 10 playoff caliber teams and we have to beat 3 of them just to get the 8th seed again, with minimal roster improvement.

This is why I've been saying we needed more than just backups. Have to anticipate other teams get better every year too.

You can add Courtney Lee to Rose & Noah for NY. They're making the playoffs if healthy.

.

[ChuckVanBrown]

It's still too early to rank teams for next season, but based on the current transactions, I see CLE tier one, BOS and TOR tier 2, and DET as a 4th seed. I think a full year with Tobias and a stronger bench will result in a pretty big improvement.

I think CHA is in the same tier as DET. They'll still be good with MKG coming back. IND could be too, as they've made some improvements, but I don't think McMillan is a great coach, and they may fall back without Vogel. WAS should be better if they can stay healthy. ATL may still be good, but I don't like their offseason thus far.

That's 8 teams there. MIA could slip, especially if Bosh's health is in question. ORL has done some weird stuff, but I like Vogel and they will be a scrappy team. I think NYK have done some pretty dumb, short term moves, but that may work for this season. MIl has done some nice stuff this offseason that should make them better, but by how much I'm not sure. CHI will continue their slide from last season.

BKN and Philly are still the bottom feeders.

[russkopp]

I find it funny how the Horford stuff played out. He's obviously a great player and I would've loved to have him but there's no overlooking he's 30 and has torn his pec OFF HIS BODY twice. Again, I would've loved him. But, the stories would've been funny for us compared to what I'm reading about BOS from the media.

BOS - "Boston gets their superstar to usher in the new era of Celtics basketball. Top FAs know that BOS is a real destination where championships are the only option"

If we got Horford - "Det lands one of the best FAs on the market but you have to wonder if a 5 year max is too much for 30 year old with injury history. Can he guard 4s, can he really hit 3s? Either way a decent move for Detroit."

[Pharaoh]

Rotation after Baynes leaves after next season looks pretty strong:

Dre, JL
Harris, King Henry
Mook, SJ
KCP
RJ, Ish

By that point SIX of them would have 2 years playing side by side and ALL of them would have played at least one season together

Think about that: a legit 9-man rotation that has stayed together for 12 months!

Continuity doesn't fix everything but it's a key component in the success of the upper echelon

Yeah, the opening of the window of contention is coming faster than you might think. If we don't develop, it doesn't matter, but if we do and start winning, players start getting expensive...

2016-2017: A growth year. Bench improves. Playoffs, maybe HCA, hopefully at least a series win.
2017-2018: The window opens. Third year of big six, barring trades. Nine or even ten (Bullock? Hilliard?) guys come back.
2018-2019: Much like the previous, but even more experience. If we aren't contending here, we aren't going to.
2019-2020: Mook isn't cheap. Harris' contract is up. SJ gets paid. We've either achieved something already or we'll need to pay a lot of money to give the same players another chance to get there. The window may not have closed, but it's getting replaced with some really expensive glass.

I'm sure there won't be THAT much continuity (ten+ players) for the next four years, but you get the idea. The window opens a year from now, and there's two years to show something before serious decisions about "tear it down or keep it going" begin.

It may seem harsh, but it's still a better window and better continuity than 80% of the league over that period.

On our continuity:

Dre and RJ highly unlikely to be dealt any time soon as they are the Sun and the Moon in our universe

Mook & Ish highly unlikely to be dealt any time soon as they are INSANELY underpaid

SJ & King Henry highly unlikely to be dealt any time soon as they are INSANELY underpaid due to the rookie scale contracts

JL just signed here - highly unlikely to be dealt any time soon

That leaves:

Harris (just acquired via trade & is pretty cheap all things considered)

KCP (just played 37 minutes per game & soon to be a RFA)

They're both unlikely to be traded...and IF KCP gets an extension here he's highly unlikely to be dealt immediately after that

IMO this is SVG getting what he wanted. His pro scouts did their work, Bower traded like a champion and SVG gonna make it work over the rest of his contract.

#bookit

[Todd3]

Afflalo has not yet been shown to be a guy that helps you win games at all.

And I have no idea why you're so fixated on Gordon. He's an undersized shooting guard who's only missed fewer than 20 games once in his 8 year career, and he barely made it then. I would be appalled if we signed him for over 13 million per year over four years like the Rockets just did.

He's an elite 3pt shooter and pick & roll ball handler. The 2 foundations of our offense and 2 biggest needs which have yet to be addressed. That's why. The Cavs showed the league the blueprint how to beat us - blitz Reggie and make someone else run the pick & roll, and pack the paint vs his drives and make our jumpshooters beat them. Thus, adding shooting and a secondary ball-handler should've been priority #1 and Gordon would've addressed both in 1 signing. Instead we paid 16m/yr for Ish/Leuer and are still going to have the same problem next year. And it won't just be vs the Cavs, it'll be vs every team.

Yes Ish can handle the ball and Leuer can shoot, but how much are they going to be playing with Reggie to solve the actual problem? And how much can Leuer actually shoot? He made 38% from 3 on 1.8 3FGA. Gordon made 38% on 6.5. That's a HUGE difference.

He's 1" shorter than our current SG so size shouldn't have been a factor, and being able to play a whole season is meaningless if you're more liability than asset. Give me the guy who can play 60 games and addresses needs and we can supplement the rest with a solid backup like SJ/Bullock. 13m/yr is cheap in this market too, and when you go by actual minutes not games, 60 games @ 32 mpg is a lot more valuable than paying 10m/yr for 82 games of 15mpg like we chose instead with Leuer.

Doesn't matter now, but I'm just explaining to you why he would've been such a great fit and better usage of that money imo.

[Todd3]

Eric Gordon is an extremely talented player... that we definitely needed to avoid. He's clearly fragile, and there are only so many shots to go around. I know this doesn't bother Todd, as his plan would be to make KCP a defensive specialist bench player, but that's not SVG's plan, so there was no room for Gordon. You don't pay a fragile combo guard 13 million a year to play 20 minutes off the bench and take shots from all the players you're trying to develop.

SVG wants to win, but he's also playing the long game here with player development. I'd bet Ish Smith is fine with going back to being pass-first, and Leuer is coming in knowing he's filling a particular role -- stretch big for 15 minutes tops unless he's on fire or the matchups favor him.

We added these two guys because they filled needs and know their roles. The future of this team is contingent on the continued development of Drummond, Stanimal, and to a lesser extent Harris, KCP, Reggie, and Ellenson. SVG isn't going to screw that up. It just so happens that we're talented enough to be a playoff team fairly early in the process.

If we had signed him he'd play more like 30 min than 20 with potential to start. There's only so many shots to go around, which is why the guys who can't shoot shouldn't be taking any. That's the whole point. Instead of KCP taking those 5 threes per game at 30%, it would've been Gordon taking them at 38%, and we would've been a better team for it. Not just for the extra made 3s, but all the space it creates for Reggie/Dre to be more efficient in the paint. More efficient offense = more scoring = more opportunities to set your defense = better team overall.