Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Blazinaway]

Sources: Nets to sign Tyler Johnson to $50M offer sheet. @WojVerticalNBA report on @TheVertical. http://yhoo.it/29mmok2

does this sorta set the price area for Crabbe?

[Oneluckbox]

I don't know your guys cap situation. Are the odds high that you bring back all of Crabbe, Leonard, and Harkless after signing Turner?

Potential Other Suiters For Aldrich (And I use potential very loosely)
Brooklyn
Dallas
Houston
New Orleans
Phoenix

What does the cap space look like for these teams?

Wolves also have some interest in Aldrich.

It's likely that Portland will retain all 3 unless they get huge offers from other teams. If Portland somehow signs Gasol then 1 of them, potentially 2, will have to go. Most of us want Harkless back of the 3 and AC depends how much he gets offered. If its around 12m the Blazers will probably match. Most of us want Meyers gone but Neil Olshey loves Leonard sooooo he's probably gonna stay as well.

[Jsun947]

I think my biggest fear with free agency is that some of these teams who lose out on everyone and have tons of cap space will just start throwing out enourmous one year deals to get to the salary floor or will start making big offers to RFAs

[Jsun947]

Sources: Nets to sign Tyler Johnson to $50M offer sheet. @WojVerticalNBA report on @TheVertical. http://yhoo.it/29mmok2

does this sorta set the price area for Crabbe?

No because teams were limited to what they could offer for Tyler Johnson.

[nickforthreee]

plus crabbe is way better than Tyler Johnson. my guess for crabbe is 4yr $60 million. 15 a year

[Wizenheimer]

I don't know what Turner will do with his shooting percentages, but saying he CAN'T improve because of age is silly and just factually incorrect based on past history of other players.

I'm sorry DB but who said he can't improve?

what I said is that expecting him to have an Aminu-like improvement is probably unrealistic. And frankly, one year blips happen a lot. We don't know yet if Aminu will sustain the improvement next season, or regress back toward his norms. I would be curious to see a comparison between Aminu's 3 point shooting as a SF and PF. My suspicion is he's better as a PF

and I'd be curious about the history of players making a big jump in their shooting percentages after their 6th NBA season and after they turn 28. My guess is that a big majority of players at that age have fairly flat-lined numbers for the rest of their careers

that said, I'd anticipate that Turner's 3 pt% won't be as bad as many fear. Turner actually has a higher career percentage now then Aminu did before last season. I think an entire coaching staff and several teammates getting on his case when he doesn't take the open 3 will upgrade his confidence. The two seasons he took over 150 three's he shot 36% and 32%, so it's not like he's coming in as a 17% shooter

on the other hand, I think his role will be more drive-and-kick and penetration. I don't anticipate him as a consistent option as a recipient in catch-&-shoot situations

[Blazinaway]

plus crabbe is way better than Tyler Johnson. my guess for crabbe is 4yr $60 million. 15 a year

I don't agree with that, he's more versatile and a much better ball handler, shot 38% from 3 and almost 49% overall.

[skoharry]

i really think if we are looking for a PF too that we should lok at j.sullinger. he can shoot the 3 & can make jump shots, he can rebound, has somewhat of a defensive game, & he fits into the age range we are going for. i think he would take 8-12mil/year[maybe less to come play with turner. saying they like eachother]. he still has not reached his ceiling & i believe playing in stotts system he could go back to averaging 13-15ppg & 8-10rpg like he did in the 13/14 and 14/15 season. so tell me what you guys think about this
sign sullinger for 3yrs @ 24mil with a TO for the 3rd yr
sign s.larkin for 3yrs @ 18mill
trade aminu & vonleh to MIN for dieng
resign harkless & crabbe
so our roster would be

PG - dame/larkin
SG - cj/crabbe
SF - turner/harkless
PF - sullinger/davis
C - dieng/plumlee
looks good to me

[Blazinaway]

i really think if we are looking for a PF too that we should lok at j.sullinger. he can shoot the 3 & can make jump shots, he can rebound, has somewhat of a defensive game, & he fits into the age range we are going for. i think he would take 8-12mil/year[maybe less to come play with turner. saying they like eachother]. he still has not reached his ceiling & i believe playing in stotts system he could go back to averaging 13-15ppg & 8-10rpg like he did in the 13/14 and 14/15 season. so tell me what you guys think about this
sign sullinger for 3yrs @ 24mil with a TO for the 3rd yr
sign s.larkin for 3yrs @ 18mill
trade aminu & vonleh to MIN for dieng
resign harkless & crabbe
so our roster would be

PG - dame/larkin
SG - cj/crabbe
SF - turner/harkless
PF - sullinger/davis
C - dieng/plumlee
looks good to me

I like the Sullinger idea, heres an interesting article on him

http://www.golocalprov.com/sports/jared-sullinger-headlines-potential-bargains-in-nba-free-agency

[JasonStern]

oh, man. Trey Burke traded for a future 2nd. would have filled a need and been a great reclamation project. but at least we wasted a future 2nd round pick of Layman.

Turner will get a boost in his shooting percentage from playing in Stotts' offense and practicing under the Blazers' shooting coaches. that said, I wouldn't expect much of a leap forward. and if he does, then it means he's focusing his practice on shooting as opposed to keeping his other skills honed. while he seems like an odd fit offensively, I'm actually fine with the Turner signing. he fits the age of our core perfectly. but it was still an overpay.

strongly suspect the Gasol is something like a one year near-max contract offer that provides the Blazers with a short-term piece that comes off the books just as McCollum and possibly Plumlee are due for extensions, with the attraction for Gasol being the same amount of guaranteed money that a team like the Spurs would offer for a 2 or 3 year contract.

also suspect that the Blazers aren't going to make any other moves (other than a possible Gasol signing) until their restricted free agent situation is resolved. I imagine Olshey has "match up to" price targets on all three, as opposed to "we are getting rid of Harkless/Crabbe/Leonard and keeping the others". I'd predict Crabbe gets the largest offer and might be gone because of that, but I imagine if Olshey had to pick, Harkless would be gone - especially if the Turner guaranteed a starting role rumor is true. Turner just duplicates more of Harkless' game than Crabbe or Leonard. plus the Blazers have years of player development into Crabbe and Leonard, which makes it harder for some GMs to let players go.

the whole "we should never have cap space because we never sign anyone" rant is silly. the Blazers just need to be more realistic about what they can achieve. keep your expectations low and you're less likely to be disappointed. let's pretend they started straight at Plan C and made a run at some RFAs - for an example, my favorite, Powell. sure, the Blazers may lock up cap space for the first 3 days of free agency and miss out on Parsons and Howard, but they did that anyway. but instead, they'd have a much higher chance of Dallas declining as now their Plan A and B now have a three day window to complete. or better example - Sullinger. how much more difficult would matching his contract be while the Celtics were trying to actively pursue Horford and Durant? or look at the Turner signing. if the Blazers pitch him on day 1 before market value for players is established, they probably could have cut $3-5 million a season off of his offer, while establishing some goodwill with him by making him Plan A.

[Blazers98]

With Horford in Boston, I think Sullinger is a great player to role the dice on and Boston won't be throwing money at him. He is young and can improve. He can spread the floor a bit but can get better. Great fit for us. MY ONLY fear is he might not have the drive to keep his body in shape and conditioned.

I also felt the same way about the Wizards getting Trey Burke. Great deal for a solid backup.

[LicketyBrindle]

oh, man. Trey Burke traded for a future 2nd. would have filled a need and been a great reclamation project. but at least we wasted a future 2nd round pick of Layman.

Turner will get a boost in his shooting percentage from playing in Stotts' offense and practicing under the Blazers' shooting coaches. that said, I wouldn't expect much of a leap forward. and if he does, then it means he's focusing his practice on shooting as opposed to keeping his other skills honed. while he seems like an odd fit offensively, I'm actually fine with the Turner signing. he fits the age of our core perfectly. but it was still an overpay.

strongly suspect the Gasol is something like a one year near-max contract offer that provides the Blazers with a short-term piece that comes off the books just as McCollum and possibly Plumlee are due for extensions, with the attraction for Gasol being the same amount of guaranteed money that a team like the Spurs would offer for a 2 or 3 year contract.

also suspect that the Blazers aren't going to make any other moves (other than a possible Gasol signing) until their restricted free agent situation is resolved. I imagine Olshey has "match up to" price targets on all three, as opposed to "we are getting rid of Harkless/Crabbe/Leonard and keeping the others". I'd predict Crabbe gets the largest offer and might be gone because of that, but I imagine if Olshey had to pick, Harkless would be gone - especially if the Turner guaranteed a starting role rumor is true. Turner just duplicates more of Harkless' game than Crabbe or Leonard. plus the Blazers have years of player development into Crabbe and Leonard, which makes it harder for some GMs to let players go.

the whole "we should never have cap space because we never sign anyone" rant is silly. the Blazers just need to be more realistic about what they can achieve. keep your expectations low and you're less likely to be disappointed. let's pretend they started straight at Plan C and made a run at some RFAs - for an example, my favorite, Powell. sure, the Blazers may lock up cap space for the first 3 days of free agency and miss out on Parsons and Howard, but they did that anyway. but instead, they'd have a much higher chance of Dallas declining as now their Plan A and B now have a three day window to complete. or better example - Sullinger. how much more difficult would matching his contract be while the Celtics were trying to actively pursue Horford and Durant? or look at the Turner signing. if the Blazers pitch him on day 1 before market value for players is established, they probably could have cut $3-5 million a season off of his offer, while establishing some goodwill with him by making him Plan A.

Now I've heard everything! Let's set our expectations low so that we won't be disappointed! That way when we do around average or slightly above average we will think we are geniuses! Classic! This sounds just like the school system and youth sports philosophy today--"2+2=5.....no but that's ok, Johnny, we really like your effort!" Everyone gets a trophy and a smiley face!!!

[Oneluckbox]

Aldrich 22m/3y to Twolves.

Wow that's so cheap as well. As if you don't move for him Portland. Man this offseason SUCKS so far...

[Run PDX]

Cole Aldrich to the Timberwolves.
That takes a suitor out of the Gasol sweepstakes.

[Jsun947]

****! Thats so cheap -_-

Now I'm getting discouraged....

[Jsun947]

Gasol is **** 35 years old. Who gives a ****.

[Beeboywhoo]

We slept on cole Aldrich for 7 mil for 3 years??! Wow Neil is in the hot seat. All the teams are getting better.

[Blazinaway]

We slept on cole Aldrich for 7 mil for 3 years??! Wow Neil is in the hot seat. All the teams are getting better.

I agree, thats a really good deal for Aldrich and Minny, Olshey better have something good cooking or he's suckin eggs

[Jsun947]

Parsons + Leuer + Aldrich went for a total of 39 million in starting Salary. Thats our cap space + renouncing Leonard + trading Ed Davis.

We also could have traded Vonleh to create enough cap space to get Trey Burke if we wanted.

Lillard/Burke
McCollum/Crabbe
Parsons/Harkless
Aminu/Leuer
Aldrich/Plumlee

[Wizenheimer]

Aldrich 22m/3y to Twolves.

Wow that's so cheap as well. As if you don't move for him Portland. Man this offseason SUCKS so far...

it does seems cheap. On the other hand, what Aldrich did this season was only averaging 13 minutes over 60 games. Significant potential for some sample-size skew there

still, people here are claiming that contracts are trade-able commodities, and even a average performance by Aldrich would make him and his contract a very attractive trade asset

I sure do hope that Portland's off-season consists of more then replacing Henderson with Turner and resigning all the RFA's. That has the look of a lateral path with a capped out roster heading into next season

and if somehow, Turner replaces Henderson on the roster, Crabbe and Meyers re-sign, and Harkless leaves, this off-season will have been a big failure