2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[nate33]

Ooh. This is a much better deal than the Mahinmi signing.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/749651187570397184[/tweet]

MUCH better. That's exactly the move we should have made and many here have advocated. How many times can we say that this board is easily smarter than Ernie Grunfeld? Aldrich is 95% of what Mahinmi is, but he costs one-third as much.

I swear. Just put Dat2U, Ruzious, Nivek and PIF in the front office, pay them each $200,000, and the team will be so much better, while Ted saves millions.

[payitforward]

Ernie is showing that he's as bad as Billy King -- is it possible he's even worse than Billy King? It could be.

[Wizardspride]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JMichaelCSN/status/749650376152920064[/tweet]

Honestly I think tomas could be the difference in a 43 and 53 win season for us this year. He is that good and what he does is going to be that needed for the way our team is shaping up. He would also be the difference between us going top 3 worst in the league if beal goes down and hanging in at 500 or better. I fell like he is that good! I might be over estimating him but he is better than any option left on the market. Fire up the plane and send John all him self to go get this deal done.

I guess you missed the tweet about Sato one or two pages back, huh?

As to your wild overestimation of his impact, the place to start is to ask how ever we would be a 43 win team without him?

I mean before he alone and on his own adds 10 wins -- a wild idea but I do like your optimism. Give me some of whatever you're smoking, ok?

To be fair, that was one tweet.

Who knows if that source is legit.

I wouldn't be surprised either way.

[payitforward]

Ooh. This is a much better deal than the Mahinmi signing.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/749651187570397184[/tweet]

MUCH better. That's exactly the move we should have made and many here have advocated. How many times can we say that this board is easily smarter than Ernie Grunfeld? Aldrich is 95% of what Mahinmi is, but he costs one-third as much.

I swear. Just put Dat2U, Ruzious, Nivek and PIF in the front office, pay them each $200,000, and the team will be so much better, while Ted saves millions.

You put Dat and me in the FO, and you could sell tickets!

OTOH, I ain't going there without you, Dat!!

[nate33]

It really is remarkable what a bad offseason this is. It's breathtaking.

Think about it. Going into the offseason, our depth chart looked like this:

PG Wall
SG
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris
C Gortat

We just spent a future 2nd round pick plus $50M a year for the next 4 years to get this:

PG Wall/Burke
SG Beal
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris/Nicholson
C Gortat/Mahinmi

You read that right. $200 MILLION DOLLARS for Beal, Nicholson, Mahinim and Burke! That's one average starter and three bench players - two of them aren't even good bench players. That 200 million dollars is likely to get us, what? 6 wins? If that? Seriously, you can take Wall, Porter, Morris and Gortat, and add 8 D-League guys and win 35 games. We're going to spend $200M to get that number up to 41 wins.

[payitforward]

Honestly I think tomas could be the difference in a 43 and 53 win season for us this year. He is that good and what he does is going to be that needed for the way our team is shaping up. He would also be the difference between us going top 3 worst in the league if beal goes down and hanging in at 500 or better. I fell like he is that good! I might be over estimating him but he is better than any option left on the market. Fire up the plane and send John all him self to go get this deal done.

I guess you missed the tweet about Sato one or two pages back, huh?

As to your wild overestimation of his impact, the place to start is to ask how ever we would be a 43 win team without him?

I mean before he alone and on his own adds 10 wins -- a wild idea but I do like your optimism. Give me some of whatever you're smoking, ok?

To be fair, that was one tweet... I wouldn't be surprised either way.

True enough. But I'm planning to be surprised either way!

OTOH, when I read that Ernie is planning to deal with this "later," what it makes me think is that he's trying to figure out how to spin the whole mess -- including Sato staying put. Hope I'm wrong.

[Ed Wood]

You read that right. $200 MILLION DOLLARS for Beal, Nicholson, Mahinim and Burke. That's one average starter and three bench players - two of them aren't even good bench players. That 200 million dollars is likely to get us, what? 6 wins? If that? Seriously. You can take Wall, Porter, Morris and Gortat, and add 8 D-League guys and win 35 games. We're going to spend $200M to get that number up to 41 wins.

It really is pretty atrocious, but every off season presents the reality that we have to adjust to a new price point for free agent production, because the price per value ratio always seems even more diluted than we'd previously gotten used to. That's not really a defense of the moves, because making actual positive progress with a roster is still predicated on not spending money as poorly as everyone else, but I think it does speak even further to the need for a change in the broader perception of the organization because I think being able to secure below-rate deals on non-niche players for Washington is going to require offering some competitive appeal.

Blackly optimistic take would be that only the Beal deal is really one which will hold the organization's head below water over the long term and if the front office is cycled reasonably quickly he gets the minutes and the touches to be perceived as a player who merits that kind of money by other organizations as well, and so could be moved.

[gambitx777]

I think we have 5-10 mill in cap room left. At this point over pay Sato! Give him what ever we need to to get him over here. I'm telling you this kid is worth it! I took that tweet as that guys opinion, considering the veal contract and the burke deal. not a real report from satisfied camp or ours, kind of like the Noah thing that came from no where. Until it's a done deal I'm gona hope he come.

[keynote]

The goal of every GM should be to get bargains: guys whose production and trade value outpace their acquisition and retention costs.

Out of the new deals:
- Beal certainly feels like an overpay -- but there's a chance that it turns into a fair/good deal.
- Mahinmi feels like a FMV deal -- which means it presents no competitive advantage.
- Nicholson feels like a good deal.
- Burke's deal is the hardest to value. I'd say his acquisition costs match his potential value. Now, if he blossoms under Brooks, then we'll have to pay him FMV (or more) to keep him after next year. So, the smart play might be to evaluate him in training camp, and decide whether to float a cheaper extension his way sooner rather than later. If he continues to underperform, then we'll probably regret losing the 2021 2nd rounder pick more than the prospects of resigning him at a lower rate -- or letting him walk.

So, only one clear cut bargain out of the bunch. :-/ Things would have to go well for Beal's deal to turn into a bargain. And it will be tricky for us to actually turn Burke into a bargain, since he's essentially going into a contract year.

FWIW, Horford would've been a bargain. Ah, well.

[Ed Wood]

I don't think the Burke deal would discourage Satoransky. Previously who know what sort of monster we might dredge up from the D League to compete for his minutes? Now he knows is the fungiblest former lottery pick we could find.

Now everything else about the organization, that might discourage Satoransky.

[gambitx777]

Sato is a combo guard/ wing player who's bread and butter is at the 2 . He passes really well so he is effective with the ball in his hands. He is also a good shooter and moves well with out the ball and is very effect with out it as well.and defends well. I hope the reports are subjective or just false like the Noah thing. David pick is the only one reporting it and most places are just running with it. So I'm hoping that he is making assumptions based on the deals made and his lack of knowledge of tomas and his true position as a player.

[Wizman84]

Getting Sato over is the only thing that can save this offseason. Mahinmi is such a disappointing signing. The Pacers didn't even want him. Thats like paying Kevin Seraphin 15 mil a year.

[Ed Wood]

Let's not go quite that far, Mahinmi is going to get a Haywood-like bad rap because he looks like we threw however many million dollars at the Tin Woodsman (not to say he's going to give us close to Haywood value, and he's not saving us from Etan Thomas), but he keeps his activity on the court limited to things you'd actually want him doing and is functional defensively. Now, that's not going to add up to a good decision vis a vis his deal because we already had a good center and a bad rest of organization, but Seraphin is actively worse than he looks like he is at all moments on the court and Mahinmi is not.

[Wizman84]

I can't see anything above average about Mahinmi. If his defense was so good I would think the Pacers would've played him more than 25 minutes a game. Ernie overvalued him just cause he was a starter. The Pacers had no better option at C.

[nate33]

The goal of every GM should be to get bargains: guys whose production and trade value outpace their acquisition and retention costs.

Out of the new deals:
- Beal certainly feels like an overpay -- but there's a chance that it turns into a fair/good deal.
- Mahinmi feels like a FMV deal -- which means it presents no competitive advantage.
- Nicholson feels like a good deal.
- Burke's deal is the hardest to value. I'd say his acquisition costs match his potential value. Now, if he blossoms under Brooks, then we'll have to pay him FMV (or more) to keep him after next year. So, the smart play might be to evaluate him in training camp, and decide whether to float a cheaper extension his way sooner rather than later. If he continues to underperform, then we'll probably regret losing the 2021 2nd rounder pick more than the prospects of resigning him at a lower rate -- or letting him walk.

So, only one clear cut bargain out of the bunch. :-/ Things would have to go well for Beal's deal to turn into a bargain. And it will be tricky for us to actually turn Burke into a bargain, since he's essentially going into a contract year.

FWIW, Horford would've been a bargain. Ah, well.

I disagree in all respects. Most of the contracts being signed this offseason do not represent fair market value. They're due to an anomalous surge of cash chasing a finite number of free agents. I fully expected contracts to be roughly 30% higher than what we're used to because the cap is 30% higher, but we are seeing teams chasing marginal players, driving the cost up much more than 30%.

For example, Mahinmi is a very good backup center, or a sub-par starter. Those types of players typically get paid a few million above the MLE. If this was last season, I'd expect $7M for a guy like Mahinmi. So this year, he should have gotten $10M. Instead, we paid him $16m.

Likewise, a guy like Nicholson is a below average backup PF with enough intrigue to be worth maybe the cost of an average backup PF, or about $3M last year. This year, he was worth $4M. We paid him $6.5M.

Beal should not have gotten the full max. At the very least, we should have waited for another offer and matched so at least there was only 4.5% raises. If it ended up being a short deal, that's all the better. I would have let him walk and paid Garrett Temple $4M a year (or whatever he costs). I'm not convinced Beal is much better than Temple, and if he is, he's not $18M better.

The Burke move was one you make if you're a contending team and want to make sure you have a backup PG with some experience. But it's not the type of move you make if you're a 41-win team that didn't even make the playoffs. Don't give up the pick for the certainty of mediocrity. You keep the pick and take a flyer on a D-League stud or a guy who slipped out of the 2nd round.

[LyricalRico]

I don't mind Nicholson or Burke, but man would I have much rather gotten Aldrich at his price than Mahinmi at his price.

[keynote]

The goal of every GM should be to get bargains: guys whose production and trade value outpace their acquisition and retention costs.

Out of the new deals:
- Beal certainly feels like an overpay -- but there's a chance that it turns into a fair/good deal.
- Mahinmi feels like a FMV deal -- which means it presents no competitive advantage.
- Nicholson feels like a good deal.
- Burke's deal is the hardest to value. I'd say his acquisition costs match his potential value. Now, if he blossoms under Brooks, then we'll have to pay him FMV (or more) to keep him after next year. So, the smart play might be to evaluate him in training camp, and decide whether to float a cheaper extension his way sooner rather than later. If he continues to underperform, then we'll probably regret losing the 2021 2nd rounder pick more than the prospects of resigning him at a lower rate -- or letting him walk.

So, only one clear cut bargain out of the bunch. :-/ Things would have to go well for Beal's deal to turn into a bargain. And it will be tricky for us to actually turn Burke into a bargain, since he's essentially going into a contract year.

FWIW, Horford would've been a bargain. Ah, well.

I disagree in all respects. Most of the contracts being signed this offseason do not represent fair market value. They're due to an anomalous surge of cash chasing a finite number of free agents. I fully expected contracts to be roughly 30% higher than what we're used to because the cap is 30% higher, but we are seeing teams chasing marginal players, driving the cost up much more than 30%.

What you're describing are market forces -- which, in a fair market, set the FMV for players.

Yes, this year is a "bubble." But it's a bubble that all teams are operating in. Now, it's true that EG grossly overestimated the competitive advantage cap room would provide us in this offseason. But we can still evaluate the cost of each current acquisition with the potential value the team would receiving going forward.

In that respect, Mahinmi's market has been set by other veteran, defensive-minded bigs like Mozgov and Noah (Noah's in a different tier if healthy; the question marks about his health, . I'd wager that Mahinmi could've received similar money from other teams. Hence FMV.
Aldrich is a better deal for his production, and is thus being universally lauded as a below FMV contract.

[AFM]

The goal of every GM should be to get bargains: guys whose production and trade value outpace their acquisition and retention costs.

Out of the new deals:
- Beal certainly feels like an overpay -- but there's a chance that it turns into a fair/good deal.
- Mahinmi feels like a FMV deal -- which means it presents no competitive advantage.
- Nicholson feels like a good deal.
- Burke's deal is the hardest to value. I'd say his acquisition costs match his potential value. Now, if he blossoms under Brooks, then we'll have to pay him FMV (or more) to keep him after next year. So, the smart play might be to evaluate him in training camp, and decide whether to float a cheaper extension his way sooner rather than later. If he continues to underperform, then we'll probably regret losing the 2021 2nd rounder pick more than the prospects of resigning him at a lower rate -- or letting him walk.

So, only one clear cut bargain out of the bunch. :-/ Things would have to go well for Beal's deal to turn into a bargain. And it will be tricky for us to actually turn Burke into a bargain, since he's essentially going into a contract year.

FWIW, Horford would've been a bargain. Ah, well.

I disagree in all respects. Most of the contracts being signed this offseason do not represent fair market value. They're due to an anomalous surge of cash chasing a finite number of free agents. I fully expected contracts to be roughly 30% higher than what we're used to because the cap is 30% higher, but we are seeing teams chasing marginal players, driving the cost up much more than 30%.

For example, Mahinmi is a very good backup center, or a sub-par starter. Those types of players typically get paid a few million above the MLE. If this was last season, I'd expect $7M for a guy like Mahinmi. So this year, he should have gotten $10M. Instead, we paid him $16m.

Likewise, a guy like Nicholson is a below average backup PF with enough intrigue to be worth maybe the cost of an average backup PF, or about $3M last year. This year, he was worth $4M. We paid him $6.5M.

Beal should not have gotten the full max. At the very least, we should have waited for another offer and matched so at least there was only 4.5% raises. If it ended up being a short deal, that's all the better. I would have let him walk and paid Garrett Temple $4M a year (or whatever he costs). I'm not convinced Beal is much better than Temple, and if he is, he's not $18M better.

The Burke move was one you make if you're a contending team and want to make sure you have a backup PG with some experience. But it's not the type of move you make if you're a 41-win team that didn't even make the playoffs. Don't give up the pick for the certainty of mediocrity. You keep the pick and take a flyer on a D-League stud or a guy who slipped out of the 2nd round.

I wish Kevin still posted here. He tweeted that Mahinmi's deal matched what he was worth using his salary formula though.

[nate33]

The goal of every GM should be to get bargains: guys whose production and trade value outpace their acquisition and retention costs.

Out of the new deals:
- Beal certainly feels like an overpay -- but there's a chance that it turns into a fair/good deal.
- Mahinmi feels like a FMV deal -- which means it presents no competitive advantage.
- Nicholson feels like a good deal.
- Burke's deal is the hardest to value. I'd say his acquisition costs match his potential value. Now, if he blossoms under Brooks, then we'll have to pay him FMV (or more) to keep him after next year. So, the smart play might be to evaluate him in training camp, and decide whether to float a cheaper extension his way sooner rather than later. If he continues to underperform, then we'll probably regret losing the 2021 2nd rounder pick more than the prospects of resigning him at a lower rate -- or letting him walk.

So, only one clear cut bargain out of the bunch. :-/ Things would have to go well for Beal's deal to turn into a bargain. And it will be tricky for us to actually turn Burke into a bargain, since he's essentially going into a contract year.

FWIW, Horford would've been a bargain. Ah, well.

I disagree in all respects. Most of the contracts being signed this offseason do not represent fair market value. They're due to an anomalous surge of cash chasing a finite number of free agents. I fully expected contracts to be roughly 30% higher than what we're used to because the cap is 30% higher, but we are seeing teams chasing marginal players, driving the cost up much more than 30%.

What you're describing are market forces -- which, in a fair market, set the FMV for players.

Yes, this year is a "bubble." But it's a bubble that all teams are operating in. Now, it's true that EG grossly overestimated the competitive advantage cap room would provide us in this offseason. But we can still evaluate the cost of each current acquisition with the potential value the team would receiving going forward.

In that respect, Mahinmi's market has been set by other veteran, defensive-minded bigs like Mozgov and Noah (Noah's in a different tier if healthy; the question marks about his health, . I'd wager that Mahinmi could've received similar money from other teams. Hence FMV.
Aldrich is a better deal for his production, and is thus being universally lauded as a below FMV contract.

I'm saying that, two years from now, when there is no longer an anomalous surge of money in one offseason, we will look back at Mahinmi's contract and realize how bad it is. It may not be bad relative to other contracts in the 2016 free agency class, but it'll be bad relative to all other contracts in the league in 2018.

This is not the year to sign long term contracts. After striking out on Durant and Horford, we should have stepped away from the table. If Wall is upset about it, tell him that we're simply not paying 20% of the cap for Ian freaking Mahinmi, market forces be damned. We'll save the money, get below the league minimum salary, and pay all of our current players a bonus.

[80sballboy]

Yeah, I don't get why we didn't offer a similar deal to Aldrich that Minnesota got him for. Didn't know that no team out there wanted him as their starter.