2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[pcbothwel]

i see about just over 6M in cap space assuming we rescind Gooden and Eddie.
If can add Curry for the Room exception (2 years), then we have 6M to bring in another Big (Dedmon, Terrance Jones, etc.) and then the vet min for wing depth (Alan Anderson would be a perfect 10/11th man)

Wall / Curry / Burke
Beal / Satoransky/ McClellan
Otto / Oubre / Anderson
Markieff / Nicholson
Gortat / Mahinmi / Dedmon

That is a deep team that on talent alone gets 40-44 Wins. The big question is the effect of Brooks and his staff on our defense and the development of Wall, Beal, Otto, Oubre, etc. That would make this team a 44-48 Win team (Compare the talent on the Hawks, Hornets, and Heat last year and try to tell me we cant win 45+)

Moving forward into next year, we dont have cap space, but we have 1 of Otto/Oubre, Gortat for 2/36M, Kieff for 3/24M, and all our 1st round picks if we want to make a splash in FA. Remember, as good as the FA class of next year is, Gortat would be the best C if he was a FA. We could also use this tactic the following year as well,

No one would have thought about the Thunder being able to get Horford, but its possible if you have a UFA that wants to come there and good contracts to trade. Gallinari could be a PF option, as could Blake Griffin, Who knows.

BTW, Sato quickly becomes a Crowder/IT value if he proves to be an elite 6th man. 3/9M is ridiculously low and his cap hold in 2019 will be less than 6M.

[mhd]

If we had just signed Aldrich instead of Mahinmi, then this off-season would have been fine.

[80sballboy]

Well Matt Barnes to Sacramento. Of course, where else?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/749759837223809024[/tweet]

[payitforward]

Kings just rescinded their qualifying offer to Seth Curry -- he's unrestricted. Go get him, Ernie, puh-lease!!!

[LyricalRico]

If we had just signed Aldrich instead of Mahinmi, then this off-season would have been fine.

Yep, that substitution would have made this offseason a decent low budget alternative to not getting KD2DC. Hopefully Mahinmi at least works on the floor.


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[payitforward]

Garrett Temple just got $24m for 3 years from the Kings. Frankly, I hate to lose the guy -- altogether a class person and a guy who made himself into an NBA player by hard work. Congratulations to him and his family. I hope he does really well.

Meanwhile, we can still salvage the off season a little bit by signing Seth Curry.

[stevemcqueen1]

Jesus, glad we didn't just sign Jordan Crawford for 14 million a year.

We may not have moved the needle with any of our moves, or gotten the most out of our draft picks or money, but we also didn't step on any land mines. Could have been a lot worse.

[AFM]

LSBF, did you say 28 win team?

Come on bro, lets not be too pessimistic now

[payitforward]

Well... here's what we've got

Wall -- $15.75m
Beal -- $25.5m (assuming the average of the 5 year total -- might not be right)
Porter -- $5.9m
Gortat -- $12m
Oubre -- $2m
Morris -- $7.4m
Mahinmi -- $16m (assuming the average of the $64m total -- that may not be right)
Nicholson -- $6.5m
Burke -- $3.4m
Satoransky -- $3m

That's slightly over $97m for 10 guys:

PG -- Wall / Burke
SG -- Beal / Satoransky
SF -- Porter / Oubre
PF -- Morris / Nicholson
C -- Gortat / Mahinmi

Obviously, there has to be more to come. I've got my fingers crossed Sheldon McClellan works out and is on the team for less than $1m. We can also sign someone for the room exception, right? Say Seth Curry, who would fit under the max $2.9m of the exception. That'd bring us to 12 guys @$98m (not including the room exception salary which doesn't count against the cap -- right?). Perhaps we'd sign Hickson at the veteran minimum -- though with what's been happening this week, we could read tomorrow that he signed somewhere for $20m/3 years!

Looking at just these 10 guys, this roster looks like it could be downgrade from last year or maybe as good as last year, but I don't see how it would be an improvement (again, though, we won't stay at 10 guys).

We should definitely be better at the 5. We're still extremely weak at the 4, maybe worse than last year. Dudley wasn't a good 4; he was playing out of position. But, he was much more productive than Nicholson last year. Morris was awful; at his best he's below average.

At the 3, I expect Porter to continue to improve, but we're counting on a raw recruit Oubre to back him up. Will Sato play some at the 3? At the 2, there's hope for Beal to improve and hope for Satoransky to be really good. Perhaps it's more realistic to think that Beal remains as he has been and Satoransky experiences some bumps in the road as an NBA rookie. It's a question whether we'll be better at the 2

We have downgraded a lot at the 1. Assuming Wall unchanged (and that'd mean he's recovering extremely well) and playing his usual heavy minutes, the rest of the minutes presumably go to the very very bad Trey Burke. Perhaps not, however? Perhaps Satoransky splits time at the guard spots? That would presumably be an upgrade over Burke.

Meanwhile, I'd say that all the teams ahead of us in the East last year have either improved or are so little changed that there's no reason to think we'll catch any of them. Meanwhile, the Knicks have spent a bunch of money. Will they shoot past us? I doubt it. What about Orlando and Milwaukee? What about the Sixers -- they'll have Embiid, Saric, Simmons, Luwawu, a big talent upgrade from last year.

[80sballboy]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wizards/after-missing-early-targets-wizards-land-trey-burke-andrew-nicholson/2016/07/03/1dde0c34-4145-11e6-8856-f26de2537a9d_story.html

[nate33]

Well... here's what we've got

Wall -- $15.75m
Beal -- $25.5m (assuming the average of the 5 year total -- might not be right)
Porter -- $5.9m
Gortat -- $12m
Oubre -- $2m
Morris -- $7.4m
Mahinmi -- $16m (assuming the average of the $64m total -- that may not be right)
Nicholson -- $6.5m
Burke -- $3.4m
Satoransky -- $3m

That's slightly over $97m for 10 guys:

PG -- Wall / Burke
SG -- Beal / Satoransky
SF -- Porter / Oubre
PF -- Morris / Nicholson
C -- Gortat / Mahinmi

Obviously, there has to be more to come. I've got my fingers crossed Sheldon McClellan works out and is on the team for less than $1m. We can also sign someone for the room exception, right? Say Seth Curry, who would fit under the max $2.9m of the exception. That'd bring us to 12 guys @$98m (not including the room exception salary which doesn't count against the cap -- right?). Perhaps we'd sign Hickson at the veteran minimum -- though with what's been happening this week, we could read tomorrow that he signed somewhere for $20m/3 years!

Looking at just these 10 guys, this roster looks like it could be downgrade from last year or maybe as good as last year, but I don't see how it would be an improvement (again, though, we won't stay at 10 guys).

We should definitely be better at the 5. We're still extremely weak at the 4, maybe worse than last year. Dudley wasn't a good 4; he was playing out of position. But, he was much more productive than Nicholson last year. Morris was awful; at his best he's below average.

At the 3, I expect Porter to continue to improve, but we're counting on a raw recruit Oubre to back him up. Will Sato play some at the 3? At the 2, there's hope for Beal to improve and hope for Satoransky to be really good. Perhaps it's more realistic to think that Beal remains as he has been and Satoransky experiences some bumps in the road as an NBA rookie. It's a question whether we'll be better at the 2

We have downgraded a lot at the 1. Assuming Wall unchanged (and that'd mean he's recovering extremely well) and playing his usual heavy minutes, the rest of the minutes presumably go to the very very bad Trey Burke. Perhaps not, however? Perhaps Satoransky splits time at the guard spots? That would presumably be an upgrade over Burke.

Meanwhile, I'd say that all the teams ahead of us in the East last year have either improved or are so little changed that there's no reason to think we'll catch any of them. Meanwhile, the Knicks have spent a bunch of money. Will they shoot past us? I doubt it. What about Orlando and Milwaukee? What about the Sixers -- they'll have Embiid, Saric, Simmons, Luwawu, a big talent upgrade from last year.

One relevant correction. Beal, Mahinmi and Nicholson will be paid a bit less than the numbers you cite. Those contracts won't be flat. They'll start at less than the average salary and incorporate raises. Beal's raises will be 7.5%. The other guys' will be 4.5%. I didn't verify it with my spreadsheet, but you can probably shave off about $4-5M (combined total) off the 2016/17 salary for those guys.

[pcbothwel]

Already updated. This shows 98M, but you can remove Gooden (3.5), remove Eddie and add min hold (Net 0.4M), then reduce Beal from 22.1M down to cap hold of 14.8M (7.5M).

That puts us at about 87-88M (So 6M in cap room)

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/washington-wizards/yearly/cap/

[payitforward]

Already updated. This shows 98M, but you can remove Gooden (3.5), remove Eddie and add min hold (Net 0.4M), then reduce Beal from 22.1M down to cap hold of 14.8M (7.5M).

That puts us at about 87-88M (So 6M in cap room)

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/washington-wizards/yearly/cap/

Beal gets reduced because he hasn't actually signed his new deal yet? Or...?

[gambitx777]

Already updated. This shows 98M, but you can remove Gooden (3.5), remove Eddie and add min hold (Net 0.4M), then reduce Beal from 22.1M down to cap hold of 14.8M (7.5M).

That puts us at about 87-88M (So 6M in cap room)

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/washington-wizards/yearly/cap/

Beal gets reduced because he hasn't actually signed his new deal yet? Or...?

We have his bird rights so we don't need to sign him until we use all of our cap room, that way his cap hold counts for the cap and not the new contracts amount. So we use his 14.5 cap hold until we finish signing people or until we get close to the cap. then in theory is we need to we can use the room before we sign beal and go over the cap, then once we sign beal his new contract counts ask a cap figure, which will be about 8 mill more than it does now. Then we should still have the mid level to use before we hit the tax.

[DCZards]

Obviously, there has to be more to come. I've got my fingers crossed Sheldon McClellan works out and is on the team for less than $1m. We can also sign someone for the room exception, right? Say Seth Curry, who would fit under the max $2.9m of the exception. That'd bring us to 12 guys @$98m (not including the room exception salary which doesn't count against the cap -- right?). Perhaps we'd sign Hickson at the veteran minimum -- though with what's been happening this week, we could read tomorrow that he signed somewhere for $20m/3 years!

I'm there with you on Sheldon and Seth. Saw a decent amount of McClellan at Miami. I can see him making the roster.

We should definitely be better at the 5. We're still extremely weak at the 4, maybe worse than last year. Dudley wasn't a good 4; he was playing out of position. But, he was much more productive than Nicholson last year. Morris was awful; at his best he's below average.

I know you hate Morris and you have your doubts about A.N. But please don’t tell me that Dudley playing out of position and Hump trying to morph into a S4 was a just as good--maybe better. Morris was an upgrade when he showed up midseason.

Nicholson went from making 13 threes at a 31% clip two years ago to making 41 threes at a 36% clip last season. That’s a good trend.

At the 3, I expect Porter to continue to improve, but we're counting on a raw recruit Oubre to back him up. Will Sato play some at the 3? At the 2, there's hope for Beal to improve and hope for Satoransky to be really good. Perhaps it's more realistic to think that Beal remains as he has been and Satoransky experiences some bumps in the road as an NBA rookie. It's a question whether we'll be better at the 2

Maybe resign Anderson (if healthy) to bolster the youngsters at SF. I'm betting on seeing a lot of Wall-Beal-Sato lineups by midseason.

Why is it "more realistic" that Beal remains the same? Isn’t it just as realistic that Beal will get better? Most 23 year olds do. There was improvement last season...fewer long two pters. and more attacking the basket. Why shouldn’t we expect that to continue? Beal just needs to stay healthy.

We have downgraded a lot at the 1. Assuming Wall unchanged (and that'd mean he's recovering extremely well) and playing his usual heavy minutes, the rest of the minutes presumably go to the very very bad Trey Burke. Perhaps not, however? Perhaps Satoransky splits time at the guard spots? That would presumably be an upgrade over Burke.

Downgraded at the 1? The same was said when Miller was traded for Sessions. Could be that Brooks saw a decent amount of Burke out west and thinks he can play well in his system. Burke is just 23 so improvement is certainly possible.

[gambitx777]

Nicholson will be better here, better HC, better PG, better fit. I think Nicholson, is better than Hump, and better than gooden and better than dudley at the 4.

[stevemcqueen1]

Maybe resign Anderson (if healthy) to bolster the youngsters at SF. I'm betting on seeing a lot of Wall-Beal-Sato lineups by midseason.

Why is it "more realistic" that Beal remains the same? Isn’t it just as realistic that Beal will get better? Most 23 year olds do. There was improvement last season...fewer long two pters. and more attacking the basket. Why shouldn’t we expect that to continue? Beal just needs to stay healthy.

Yeah, I think Sato could have a shorter adjustment period to the NBA than most rookies. He's not a clueless 19 year old adjusting to the life and schedule of a pro basketball player. He'll be a 25 year old with a lot of Euro experience under his belt. I think he'll find his groove by January and force his way onto the court as a back court mate with both Wall and Beal. Trey Burke is looking like a sketchy back up PG and we have nothing behind Beal, who is going to miss time. Sato is going to play a lot of minutes this season.

Our hopes really rest on Beal, Sato, and Scott Brooks. We'll get maybe three or four more wins from the three front court positions at most, and that would require us to be as injury free at those spots as we were last year. More likely we just staved off getting worse, unless Mahinmi is as good as he was last year despite getting a diminished role here, and/or Oubre gets a lot better than I'm expecting.

I agree with you about Beal. The talent is there, he just needs to stay healthy. He's our main source of massive multi-win share improvement. If he puts it all together and becomes an All Star, we could expect to win 6 more games or so. The other source would be Wall making a jump to a new level and becoming an MVP caliber player. That could take the ceiling off our team. Scott Brooks's biggest job is going to be getting Wall and Beal to make these leaps. If he manages it then he's a friggin fantastic coach. If not, then we'll remain a third tier EC team, scrapping it out with Detroit and New York for the final seeds.

[leswizards]

I am disappointed that EG has yet to be fired, and at this point, I don't know what it takes for him to be fired.

I know a lot of fans are disappointed in the off season, and the team, as am I. But I guess, I am glass is half full kind of optimist. Wall and Beal are now max level salary players. Neither have consistently performed as max level production players. If both could start producing as much as they are getting paid, and if Porter joins them in doing the same, the future could still be very bright for the Wizards (even without a major addition like Durant).

[da pmp]

Chicago Bulls fan here, you guys are going to win 50 games if Beal and wall stay healthy. Wall and beal will improve and it looks like your interior defense got better. You are clearly better than Boston and Toronto . Wall and beal >>>>> horford and whoever and any other combo in the east outside lebron and kyrie.

[PerkinsFor3]

You are clearly better than Boston and Toronto

ok.