2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[SUPERBALLMAN]

How the Wizards rotation is shaping up...

Gortat, Morris, Porter, Beal, Wall

Mahinmi, Nicholson, Oubre, Temple, Burke

[gambitx777]

Yeah Zeller or Aldrich on a cheaper deal would have been ok but I do not hate the Ian deal either. I think EG did a solid job this offseason after he lost out on the big fish.

[Dat2U]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenMehicNBA/status/750030341780439040[/tweet]

"We've had our eye on him for a while. Obviously, we feel good about adding a player of his caliber to our roster".

[gambitx777]

How the Wizards rotation is shaping up...

Gortat, Morris, Porter, Beal, Wall

Mahinmi, Nicholson, Oubre, Temple, Burke

Temple is gone we have tomas.

[Dat2U]

sessions only got 12.5 a year from the hornets

even with sato on board I don't understand how we let him go at such a low cost

Maybe because he wasn't that good? I didn't like the Burke pickup but I think it was time to move on from Sessions. He was a terrible defender and had significant bouts of tunnel vision offensively. We could have done better... even if Ernie didn't.

I still look at Boston that looks something like this:

Code: Select all

Thomas    Smart     Rozier   
Bradley   Young     Hunter   Holland
Crowder   Brown      
Horford   Jerebko   Mickey   Yabusele
Johnson   Olynyk    Žižić   


And say, why not just go after Zeller and Sullinger instead of Mahinmi? And Aldrich too for the price. Smh!!!

Sullinger yes. Zeller no. Zeller is just a 3rd string C IMO. He's active but not very effective due to his lack of length & strength.

[pineappleheadindc]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenMehicNBA/status/750030341780439040[/tweet]

"We've had our eye on him for a while. Obviously, we feel good about adding a player of his caliber to our roster".

"...he brings a veteran presence to our squad and is a high character guy..."

[payitforward]

Pretty interesting article about Sato from Fran Fraschilla in Oct. 2015. I forgot that the 3-point line over there is 2 feet shorter than the NBA. Sounds like we still need another 2 guard to backup Beal and Sato would be more of a backup to Wall, assuming he's ready to play in the NBA.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2015/10/26/9603978/tomas-satoransky-fran-fraschilla-washington-wizards-second-round-pick-analysis

Yes it is. Here are the relevant highlights IMO:

Fraschilla has watched Satoransky play since he was 16.... While Fraschilla doesn't see stardom in Satoransky's future, ...in his opinion that the Wizards are getting an NBA-ready contributor. "I definitely see a guy that can be in a playoff team's 8 or 9 man rotation.... There's a good chance he's going to be a good NBA role player... more of a playmaker and a point guard.... He can play off guard in spots, but I don't see that he can just catch and fire from behind NBA line."

That's pretty good -- a lot better than the many many wasted picks in R1 and R2 that Ernie has foisted on us -- but it's also very far from some of the descriptions on this Board of a guy who is going to be a star, take us to 50 wins, etc. etc. etc.

[payitforward]

Remind me why we even care about essentially a 2 team league again? Seriously. Why do the Wizards even exist? Just have Cleveland and Golden Stats play each other 82 times a year and call it the NBA.

This is the unfortunate byproduct of the rapid escalation in salaries. Basically, every year, most teams have had the flexibility to do crazy stuff like this to load up on talent. Eventually, it becomes obvious that the only way to counter a Super Team is to build a Super Team of your own. With a finite amount of elite talent available, everyone else loses out.

Things will settle down once the cap levels off and cap constraints begin to enforce parity again. But for now, there's nothing to do but wait. If nothing else, this gives a glimpse of what the league would look like in the absence of a salary cap (assuming maximum salaries continue to be enforced).

The best solution would be to end the concept of a maximum salary. In such a world, Lebron and Durant would get paid 50-60% of the cap, not 35%, and it would be impossible to assemble so much talent around them.

Yes -- just let teams bid up the true superstars. You won't be able to build a team with more than 1, or at most 2, of them. And as you say, you wouldn't be able to then add multiple talents one level down from the true superstars all on the same team.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

How the Wizards rotation is shaping up...

Gortat, Morris, Porter, Beal, Wall

Mahinmi, Nicholson, Oubre, Temple, Burke

Temple is gone we have tomas.

Sorry, I see that now! Was gone a couple days, getting caught up... wow that's good news!

Ok,

Gortat, Morris, Porter, Beal, Wall

Mahinmi, Nicholson, Oubre, Satoransky, Burke

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Looks like a solid rotation, maybe this off-season isn't a bust...

Mahinmi/Nicholson can make for a good defense/offense combo. Sato's size and playmaking next to Burke, Oubre's D and athleticism should shine in an otherwise slow unit. Overall 2nd unit should provide production and depth to a solid starting 5.

[payitforward]

Actually, 23-year-olds with 4 years under their belt don't typically improve all that much. And Beal hasn't shown any real statistical improvement in his entire career. His PER, WS/48 and ORtg have remained essentially flat, as has his assists, rebounds, steals, FT Rate and 3P%. And last season, his defense was atrocious.

IMO, it's almost impossible to judge how good Beal is capable of being based on last season when he was in and out of the lineup all season due to injury. That kind of inconsistent court time negatively impacts a player's development, particularly a young player. But you're right that he did take a step back defensively.

Demarr DeRozan is Exhibit A of a player (in fact another SG) who has shown significant improvement since he was 23 years old. There's no reason that Beal can't do the same...with hard work, good health and better coaching.

No one can know whether Bradley Beal is capable of getting better. Or whether he isn't capable of it. Or that he actually will get better. Or that he won't. Or that he would already have gotten better last year if only he hadn't had an injury. Or that he wouldn't have.

As to Demar DeRozan having improved, that has no bearing at all on whether Bradley can or will improve, any more than an example of a guy who didn't get better would have bearing on Beal in the other direction. And, if anything, your writing that "inconsistent court time negatively impacts a player's development" would be an argument that he's less likely to get significantly better than is someone like DeRozan, who didn't have inconsistent court time to overcome.

In any case, I'm not sure what you want to be insisting on, or why, since my comment (which started this now 3-way exchange) said no more than in projecting how good our team is likely to be in the coming season, it's more sensible to think about Brad next year based on Brad last year than it is to base the projection on what you, I, and all of us hope will happen for him. We all hope he'll get much better. Be a star.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

So is it fair to say we followed the plan?

Alienate your target. Assess the cap situation completely wrong. Sign other teams' cast offs and draft busts. Tweet more alienating things about said target. Claim victory.

[nate33]

Actually, 23-year-olds with 4 years under their belt don't typically improve all that much. And Beal hasn't shown any real statistical improvement in his entire career. His PER, WS/48 and ORtg have remained essentially flat, as has his assists, rebounds, steals, FT Rate and 3P%. And last season, his defense was atrocious.

IMO, it's almost impossible to judge how good Beal is capable of being based on last season when he was in and out of the lineup all season due to injury. That kind of inconsistent court time negatively impacts a player's development, particularly a young player. But you're right that he did take a step back defensively.

Demarr DeRozan is Exhibit A of a player (in fact another SG) who has shown significant improvement since he was 23 years old. There's no reason that Beal can't do the same...with hard work, good health and better coaching.

All we have to go on is Beal's history. Beal suffers a significant injury every season. There's no reason to expect he'll remain healthy enough to have that glorious season uninterrupted by injuries. Smart money is that he'll miss 20 games again and whatever steps forward he makes will be offset by steps back due to losing his basketball rhythm.

[Dat2U]

Looks like a solid rotation, maybe this off-season isn't a bust...

Mahinmi/Nicholson can make for a good defense/offense combo. Sato's size and playmaking next to Burke, Oubre's D and athleticism should shine in an otherwise slow unit. Overall 2nd unit should provide production and depth to a solid starting 5.

Lets see, Mahinmi is a slight downgrade from a healthy Nene, although a healthy Nene was not constant for us. Nicholson is a downgrade from Dudley. Burke is a significant downgrade from Sessions (who I wasn't a fan of). The Sato signing was nice but I think it's safe to say our bench has gotten worse.

[dckingsfan]

Maybe because he wasn't that good? I didn't like the Burke pickup but I think it was time to move on from Sessions. He was a terrible defender and had significant bouts of tunnel vision offensively. We could have done better... even if Ernie didn't.

I still look at Boston that looks something like this:

Code: Select all

Thomas    Smart     Rozier   
Bradley   Young     Hunter   Holland
Crowder   Brown      
Horford   Jerebko   Mickey   Yabusele
Johnson   Olynyk    Žižić   


And say, why not just go after Zeller and Sullinger instead of Mahinmi? And Aldrich too for the price. Smh!!!

Sullinger yes. Zeller no. Zeller is just a 3rd string C IMO. He's active but not very effective due to his lack of length & strength.

No disagreement - but Sullinger + Zeller + Aldrich >> Mahinmi

There were just so many other ways to get it right.

[80sballboy]

Looks like a solid rotation, maybe this off-season isn't a bust...

Mahinmi/Nicholson can make for a good defense/offense combo. Sato's size and playmaking next to Burke, Oubre's D and athleticism should shine in an otherwise slow unit. Overall 2nd unit should provide production and depth to a solid starting 5.

Lets see, Mahinmi is a slight downgrade from a healthy Nene, although a healthy Nene was not constant for us. Nicholson is a downgrade from Dudley. Burke is a significant downgrade from Sessions (who I wasn't a fan of). The Sato signing was nice but I think it's safe to say our bench has gotten worse.

The only thing I'd disagree with is Dudley, who was terrible off the bench when Morris moved into the starting role and adequate as a starter. Of course, he was playing out of position at the 4. Yes, Nicholson can't really defend quicker and more athletic 4s. Dudley couldn't defend big guys and keep them off the boards. Last year's bench was pretty bad, I think next year's bench, really depends on Sato and Oubre, who we're really not sure about. But it's obviously not the Warriors or Thunder's bench from last season. That's why I'd like one more proven wing but I doubt we'll get one who still has something in the tank.

[gambitx777]

You can not really say that Burke is a step down from Sessions, look at the numbers, he was better than sessions in some and not far off in others. The is no argument that one can make what so ever that Dudley is a better PF than Nicholson. Is dudley a better player over all probably, for now, but not a better PF. Mahinmi is not a down grade from nene, yes at 29 NENE was much better than Ian, but as of right now Ian is much better, more mobile, and a better player than an old broken down NENE. and I know what Fran says about him, but Sato is something really specail he really does look like young Manu! but that is my opinion and I could be wrong. But so could he.

[DCZards]

Lets see, Mahinmi is a slight downgrade from a healthy Nene, although a healthy Nene was not constant for us. Nicholson is a downgrade from Dudley. Burke is a significant downgrade from Sessions (who I wasn't a fan of). The Sato signing was nice but I think it's safe to say our bench has gotten worse.

Mahinmi is healthier than Nene (who has averaged around 60 games as a Wizard) and he's a better rebounder than Nene--something the Zards badly needed. And he's just as good a defender as Nene. Mahinmi is not as good an offensive player as Nene, but at least he won't be taking (and missing) those 10-15 ft. jumpers that Nene fell in love with.

Dudley proved last season that he is not a PF because he can't rebound or defend like one, which we already knew. But he's not a S4 either when he stops taking open 3 pters like he did about halfway through the season. So Dudley pretty much turned out to be a nonfactor for most of the season. Nicholson is slow, doesn't rebound well for a PF and is apparently a bad defender. But he does have a decent low-post offensive game and has improved his 3 pt. shooting significantly over the past couple of years.

I agree with you on Burke being a downgrade because I thought Sessions had a very good season last year. We'll have to see if Burke can improve--and contribute--now that he has a new team, coach and system.

[80sballboy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/WojVerticalNBA/status/750068576904765441[/tweet]

[nate33]

Lets see, Mahinmi is a slight downgrade from a healthy Nene, although a healthy Nene was not constant for us. Nicholson is a downgrade from Dudley. Burke is a significant downgrade from Sessions (who I wasn't a fan of). The Sato signing was nice but I think it's safe to say our bench has gotten worse.

Mahinmi is healthier than Nene (who has averaged around 60 games as a Wizard) and he's a better rebounder than Nene--something the Zards badly needed. And he's just as good a defender as Nene. Mahinmi is not as good an offensive player as Nene, but at least he won't be taking (and missing) those 10-15 ft. jumpers that Nene fell in love with.

Nene was actually very good last year. He had his best season statistically in the last 5 years. PER of 17. ORtg of 106. WS/48 of .120. He missed 25 games and could only play limited minutes, but when he played, he was arguably our 3rd best player.



I would much rather have Nene signed to one more year, at, say, $12M, than be saddled with Mahinmi's monstrous contract.