2016 Official Speculation Thread 4

[trebone]

I have a feeling there are going to be some pretty pissed off posters when it comes to minutes for our young players this season (me included). Green will probably get too many minutes, mario and gordon not quite enough.

[Nyce_1]

I really don't think Meeks will get as many minutes some are proposing. he'll play in blowouts, MAYBE.

[doct3r dr3]

Minutes are gonna be tight.


C: N. Vucevic (24)/ B. Biyombo (24)
F: S. Ibaka (30)/ J. Green (18)
F: A. Gordon (24)/ M. Hezonja (24)
G: E. Fournier (30)/ J. Meeks (18)
G: E. Payton (30)/ D.J. Augustin (18)/ C.J. Watson (0)


Hard to see how you keep all these dudes satisfied with their roles -- especially Jeff Green (career: 32 mpg) and Nik Vucevic (career: 30 mpg).

Very but I'd prefer to see a rotation like

C: N. Vucevic (30),B. Biyombo (20)

F: S. Ibaka (30)/ J. Green (6) Biyombo (6)

F: A. Gordon (26) M. Hezonja (18)/Green (6)

G: E. Fournier (30)/ J. Meeks (8)/Hezonja (10)

G: E. Payton (30)/ D.J. Augustin (18)/ C.J. Watson (0)


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8 mpg for Meeks? (career: 24 mpg, salary: $6.5M/y)
12 mpg for Green? (career: 32 mpg, salary: $15M/y)



That should go over well

[doct3r dr3]

I really don't think Meeks will get as many minutes some are proposing. he'll play in blowouts, MAYBE.

You guys,

Jodie Meeks is good. And he happens to fit a sore need on this team.

He'll play.

[MagicStarwipe]

I think Vuc's minutes will take the biggest hit. I mean... we went out and got Ibaka and then signed Biyombo to a big contract. Vogel goes on and on about defense and rim protectors who can switch out on the perimeter. The writing is on the wall. The denial can only go on for so long.

[PennytoShaq]

In the press conference, did I hear Vogel right when he said he can play Ibaka at the 3 when he wants to go extra long or was he referring to Gordon? I assumed the latter but I do know Spain tried that in the Olympics, didn't work too well iirc for them.

Well he was asked about playing Vuc and Biz next to each other and he said it probably wouldn't work against most lineups.

I still think Vuc is getting moved if Rob gets a good offer. He probably hasn't gotten what he wants yet, so he's rolling with this lineup for now.

[j-ragg]

I think Vuc's minutes will take the biggest hit. I mean... we went out and got Ibaka and then signed Biyombo to a big contract. Vogel goes on and on about defense and rim protectors who can switch out on the perimeter. The writing is on the wall. The denial can only go on for so long.

I think we trade him.

There's just too many mins in the front court for this high usage guys. Obviously not getting rid of Serge or Ibaka. Frank can't shut up about the two defensive bigs playing together. I agree. Stop the denial.

[pogiro]

I think Vuc's minutes will take the biggest hit. I mean... we went out and got Ibaka and then signed Biyombo to a big contract. Vogel goes on and on about defense and rim protectors who can switch out on the perimeter. The writing is on the wall. The denial can only go on for so long.

I think we trade him.

There's just too many mins in the front court for this high usage guys. Obviously not getting rid of Serge or Ibaka. Frank can't shut up about the two defensive bigs playing together. I agree. Stop the denial.

The only way we trade Vuc is if we get back the best player in the trade, and that player will have to be the type that can carry an offense. We have two players that I can trust to perform contribute, offensively, on an every game basis, Vuc and Evan.

You trade out Vuc and get another 2nd option type player? First of all, it'd likely be for a wing-player, since a goal of the trade would be to unclog the crowded PF-C rotation. In which case it'll clog the wings and backcourt unless we send out Mario, AG, and/or Elfrid. Second of all, if it's not a offensively dominant player, then what's the point?

We may ultimately trade Vuc, but I don't see it coming any time soon, at the trade deadline, maybe. But we gotta be sure Ibaka and Biyombo work out the way we're hyping them to work out, then we gotta be confident Ibaka will re-sign next summer. One thing that has me warming up to Biyombo signing was the prospect of him playing beside Vuc. Probably not his ideal role, but it's not a bad consolation if Ibaka were to leave.

But we're not trading away our best offensive weapon for anything less than a 20+ ppg two-way player.

[tooler]

If Hezonja can't beat out Meeks for minutes then we're probably doomed. Meeks will then be the stick to use against Hezonja if he's not defending well, etc.

I mean, assuming Vogel is a taskmaster like that. I might be thinking too much of Skiles.

[Catledge]

I really don't think Meeks will get as many minutes some are proposing. he'll play in blowouts, MAYBE.

You guys,

Jodie Meeks is good. And he happens to fit a sore need on this team.

He'll play.

I think Meeks and Green are essentially insurance against the possibility that Hezonja and Gordon don't show any significant improvement over last year.

I love Hezo and Gordon and have high hopes for their near futures, but any objective assessment has to conclude that last year's version of Hezo was not good enough to play regular minutes on a playoff team and last year's version of Gordon was not good enough to start at SF for a playoff team.

I hope both of those things stop being true by November, but we need a short-term backup plan if it turns out that one or both of Hezo and Gordon are still a year away from being ready for the roles we want them to play this year.

[j-ragg]

I think Vuc's minutes will take the biggest hit. I mean... we went out and got Ibaka and then signed Biyombo to a big contract. Vogel goes on and on about defense and rim protectors who can switch out on the perimeter. The writing is on the wall. The denial can only go on for so long.

I think we trade him.

There's just too many mins in the front court for this high usage guys. Obviously not getting rid of Serge or Ibaka. Frank can't shut up about the two defensive bigs playing together. I agree. Stop the denial.

But we're not trading away our best offensive weapon for anything less than a 20+ ppg two-way player.

So unless we totally rip a team off we won't trade Vuc? Robs past two trades have suggested this board won't be happy with the return.

In no universe should Vuc net the player you described. In that case I agree we don't trade him, we'll never find a suitor for him.

[Shady Franchise]

Ok, well then, neither of us are wrong because I argued that Harden brought them instant success. The argument has since been turned into success is winning the Championship. You never mentioned Championship in your original post, which I argued. This is going in circles, so I'll gladly end it as a technicality. I AGREE that this organization's goal is to win a Championship, as should be every teams'. Orlando making the playoffs is not guaranteed this year, either! If you look at opinions from fans around the league, they have Orlando at 9 or 10 in the East standings this year. Heck, I'm even hoping for a 6-8 seed, but we'd have to beat the likes of NY, Was, Chi, Char, to do so. It's going to be tough, but I think we are headed in the right direction.

To expand on that, I view Clev, Tor, Indy, Bos, and Det as the locks for the Eastern Playoffs. That leaves 3 spots for Atl, Char, Wash, Orl, Chi and NY. That's a 50% chance at minimum to get into one of those 3 spots. The 2 unknown teams are Milwaukee and Miami, but I see both of them sliding out of a chance for the playoffs.

I have a question, so I believe they've gotten rid of the rule that locks the division winner into a top four seed. And I know this isn't likely, but just out of curiosity, if somehow all teams in the division failed to be top 8 in the conference record wise, does winning the division still get you an automatic playoff berth?

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Good question that I don't have an answer for.

[MagicStarwipe]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/751235550145753088[/tweet]

[doct3r dr3]

I really don't think Meeks will get as many minutes some are proposing. he'll play in blowouts, MAYBE.

You guys,

Jodie Meeks is good. And he happens to fit a sore need on this team.

He'll play.

I think Meeks and Green are essentially insurance against the possibility that Hezonja and Gordon don't show any significant improvement over last year.

I love Hezo and Gordon and have high hopes for their near futures, but any objective assessment has to conclude that last year's version of Hezo was not good enough to play regular minutes on a playoff team and last year's version of Gordon was not good enough to start at SF for a playoff team.

I hope both of those things stop being true by November, but we need a short-term backup plan if it turns out that one or both of Hezo and Gordon are still a year away from being ready for the roles we want them to play this year.

The whole "picking up a spare vet as an insurance policy" perspective is a reasonable reading of the situation, until you look closer at the substance of this vet in question. This is not some over-the-hill grandpa, or some marginal journeyman. Here you have a guy that is 29 years old, who, in his last injury-free season (2 seasons ago), put up 15+ ppg on very solid efficiency. A high-volume, high efficiency shooter, with career averages of:

TS%: .567
USG%: 17.6
3PAr: .522


Plugging those (rounded down + "eligible for 3P% leaderboard") into Bball-ref for comparable players in the 2015-16, yields only:

• Stephen Curry
• Mirza Teletovic
• Eric Gordon

...all, pretty firmly rotation players.

[OrlandO]

Payton is probably 6'10 if you count his hair.

[MagicStarwipe]

You guys,

Jodie Meeks is good. And he happens to fit a sore need on this team.

He'll play.

I think Meeks and Green are essentially insurance against the possibility that Hezonja and Gordon don't show any significant improvement over last year.

I love Hezo and Gordon and have high hopes for their near futures, but any objective assessment has to conclude that last year's version of Hezo was not good enough to play regular minutes on a playoff team and last year's version of Gordon was not good enough to start at SF for a playoff team.

I hope both of those things stop being true by November, but we need a short-term backup plan if it turns out that one or both of Hezo and Gordon are still a year away from being ready for the roles we want them to play this year.

The whole "picking up a spare vet as an insurance policy" perspective is a reasonable reading of the situation, until you look closer at the substance of this vet in question. This is not some over-the-hill grandpa, or some marginal journeyman. Here you have a guy that is 29 years old, who, in his last injury-free season (2 seasons ago), put up 15+ ppg on very solid efficiency. A high-volume, high efficiency shooter, with career averages of:

TS%: .567
USG%: 17.6
3PAr: .522


Plugging those (rounded down + "eligible for 3P% leaderboard") into Bball-ref for comparable players in the 2015-16, yields only:

• Stephen Curry
• Mirza Teletovic
• Eric Gordon

...all, pretty firmly rotation players.

That's the key though. We don't know how much if at all his recent injury problems have affected his game. I'm not so certain that Mario will log a ton minutes because I think he's more raw than people like to admit, but AG will play. That dude is a baller and has a big impact on the game on both ends.

[ReadyOrlando]

Did anyone else catch BB's personal live feed after the presser? He came up with his nickname "BizMagic"
https://m.facebook.com/graphsearch/str/bismack%2Bbiyombo/keywords_search?tsid=0.1323932227504543&source=typeahead

[KillMonger]

Did anyone else catch BB's personal live feed after the presser? He came up with his nickname "BizMagic"
https://m.facebook.com/graphsearch/str/bismack%2Bbiyombo/keywords_search?tsid=0.1323932227504543&source=typeahead

unfortunately you might have to come up with a new signature

[ReadyOrlando]

Did anyone else catch BB's personal live feed after the presser? He came up with his nickname "BizMagic"
https://m.facebook.com/graphsearch/str/bismack%2Bbiyombo/keywords_search?tsid=0.1323932227504543&source=typeahead

unfortunately you might have to come up with a new signature

I know, have been putting it off. I'm sad to see Dipo go, but I we're much better now, (especially since we were not as bad as our record indicated). Time to move on I guess.

[Catledge]

You guys,

Jodie Meeks is good. And he happens to fit a sore need on this team.

He'll play.

I think Meeks and Green are essentially insurance against the possibility that Hezonja and Gordon don't show any significant improvement over last year.

I love Hezo and Gordon and have high hopes for their near futures, but any objective assessment has to conclude that last year's version of Hezo was not good enough to play regular minutes on a playoff team and last year's version of Gordon was not good enough to start at SF for a playoff team.

I hope both of those things stop being true by November, but we need a short-term backup plan if it turns out that one or both of Hezo and Gordon are still a year away from being ready for the roles we want them to play this year.

The whole "picking up a spare vet as an insurance policy" perspective is a reasonable reading of the situation, until you look closer at the substance of this vet in question. This is not some over-the-hill grandpa, or some marginal journeyman. Here you have a guy that is 29 years old, who, in his last injury-free season (2 seasons ago), put up 15+ ppg on very solid efficiency. A high-volume, high efficiency shooter, with career averages of:

TS%: .567
USG%: 17.6
3PAr: .522


Plugging those (rounded down + "eligible for 3P% leaderboard") into Bball-ref for comparable players in the 2015-16, yields only:

• Stephen Curry
• Mirza Teletovic
• Eric Gordon

...all, pretty firmly rotation players.

We got Meeks for nothing and Green signed a one-year deal in a year when unproven players are getting huge multiyear deals. Those are rather overwhelming signs that their services are in pretty low demand.

Plus, the reasons for that low demand are obvious and abundant: Meeks is undersized at his position, only has one real skill, and can't stay healthy; Green is a tweener who has never been able to nail down a consistent role, is only a so-so shooter, and doesn't seem to make teams want to keep him.

If they weren't at least decent, then they wouldn't be very good insurance policies. If they were more than just decent, then other teams would want them.

Look, I think at least one of Meeks and Green will play more than people want them to because I think at least one of Hezo and Gordon will prove unready for the roles we have them penciled in for. But any way you shake it, Meeks and Green's playing time will have a lot to do with Hezo and Gordon's readiness.