Worst signing two years from now!

[RexRyan]

Who will we look back at and say, "Stan screwed up this one"????? I took Gbinije out of this one - if a second rounder doesn't pan out, no big deal.

[Kilo]

KCP if he's extended before October at anything over $15M per season.

Otherwise probably Boban. Just doesn't have enough NBA minutes to be giving that money and term to. Especially if Baynes opts in and we're stuck with both again another season behind Dre. Or if Baynes signs for less than 11.5M elsewhere after opting out (as we could have given him that with his EBR).

Not a big fan of the fourth year to Leuer either really.

Easiest answer is probably Ellenson though as there is bound to be somebody drafted behind him that breaks out in a major way that we passed on in the draft. But I think the kid will turn out okay for us.

[Alexander]

Gbinije.
Yeah, Ellenson may never develop defensively, he might not stronger, his shot may never fall.
Leuer may not quite stretch the floor as well as we'd hope at PF and not be able to anchor things as a five.
Boban may not be able to handle more than 15 minutes a game, ever. He may be exposed if he does get the time.
Smith may just be a bad fit. Maybe he just looked good on a bad team and he won't have enough shooters around him to pass to with all of his quickness and speed and ability to penetrate. Maybe our tempo is too slow for him.

But Gbinije might not make the roster. He might not play a meaningful minute in the NBA. His best chance to contribute is as a third PG, and he could need a lot of work to be able to do so. I'll forever compare him to Tyler Ulis, Gary Payton II, Cat Barber, and Kay Felder. If none of them pan out, so be it. But if one does, and we could have traded up or bought a pick to acquire them, I'll be a little disappointed.

[Snakebites]

The length and dollars on Leuer's contract make this an easy call.

Even if he pans out as a solid bench guy that's a lot of cheddar, easily the highest probability of blowing up in our face.

[Uncle Mxy]

Josh Smith, who still hits our cap two years from now.

[coordinator0]

I went with Smith since I think he's the worst player of the bunch by a good bit. No that he's necessarily bad, but I'm not too excited about seeing him get 16 minutes a night for the foreseeable future.

Ellenson was close. If his defense/strength/toughness don't improve by a lot he will be a big liability on the floor. A (current) Kevin Love that's worse on offense isn't a good player.

[MrBigShot]

10.5 mil per isn't that much under the new cap, and big men routinely get paid premium. Ultimately when you have guys like Allen Crabbe about to earn nearly 20 mil per year and Evan Turner about to get 17.5 mil per I can live with Leur's contract.

Only way I see it totally back firing is if he's injured the whole time like Meeks.

[Todd3]

The length and dollars on Leuer's contract make this an easy call.

Even if he pans out as a solid bench guy that's a lot of cheddar, easily the highest probability of blowing up in our face.

That's something that hasn't been discussed enough that I wondered about too. We drafted Ellenson 18th and then basically signed the same player in Leuer for 4 yrs 40m a week later, and there's only going to be enough minutes for one of them with Harris needing min there too.

So either our 18th pick doesn't play at all his first 4 years and never develops, or he plays and we have 10m/yr of our cap sitting on the bench doing nothing in Leuer.

And if we play Leuer/Ellenson more at C, then Baynes/Boban won't get enough minutes. If we play Harris more at SF, then Morris and SJ won't get enough.

I'm curious to know Stan's plan for Leuer/Ellenson because it doesn't add up how we're going to get them both minutes over the next 4 years.

So I'd guess one of them will disappoint the most because one of them just isn't going to play by default, and it will either be viewed as a wasted 1st rd pick or wasted cap space.

[El Chivo]

Leuer performs well and you trade him midterm is an option, but I'm not surprised you didn't consider it

[coordinator0]

The length and dollars on Leuer's contract make this an easy call.

Even if he pans out as a solid bench guy that's a lot of cheddar, easily the highest probability of blowing up in our face.

That's something that hasn't been discussed enough that I wondered about too. We drafted Ellenson 18th and then basically signed the same player in Leuer for 4 yrs 40m a week later, and there's only going to be enough minutes for one of them with Harris needing min there too.

They're not really the same player. Both can shoot the ball but that's where the comparisons stop. Leuer is much more mobile and athletic with the ability to take his guy off the dribble and get to/finish at the rim. Ellenson has some skills in the post offensively where Leuer can't or doesn't play there at all. Henry looks like a big liability defensively too where Leuer is a minor one at worst.

[RexRyan]

The length and dollars on Leuer's contract make this an easy call.

Even if he pans out as a solid bench guy that's a lot of cheddar, easily the highest probability of blowing up in our face.

This, plus the possibility of Ellenson taking Leuer's minutes by then, made me vote for him too.

[Todd3]

The length and dollars on Leuer's contract make this an easy call.

Even if he pans out as a solid bench guy that's a lot of cheddar, easily the highest probability of blowing up in our face.

That's something that hasn't been discussed enough that I wondered about too. We drafted Ellenson 18th and then basically signed the same player in Leuer for 4 yrs 40m a week later, and there's only going to be enough minutes for one of them with Harris needing min there too.

They're not really the same player. Both can shoot the ball but that's where the comparisons stop. Leuer is much more mobile and athletic with the ability to take his guy off the dribble and get to/finish at the rim. Ellenson has some skills in the post offensively where Leuer can't or doesn't play there at all. Henry looks like a big liability defensively too where Leuer is a minor one at worst.

eh, Ellenson best asset might be his ability to play off the dribble. They both can.

Leuer is more mobile but it's not like he's Anthony Davis. Neither are anything special athletically.

Regardless how similar they are/aren't, both play the same position and that's the point. How are both going to get enough minutes?

[Kilo]

The length and dollars on Leuer's contract make this an easy call.

Even if he pans out as a solid bench guy that's a lot of cheddar, easily the highest probability of blowing up in our face.

That's something that hasn't been discussed enough that I wondered about too. We drafted Ellenson 18th and then basically signed the same player in Leuer for 4 yrs 40m a week later, and there's only going to be enough minutes for one of them with Harris needing min there too.

So either our 18th pick doesn't play at all his first 4 years and never develops, or he plays and we have 10m/yr of our cap sitting on the bench doing nothing in Leuer.

And if we play Leuer/Ellenson more at C, then Baynes/Boban won't get enough minutes. If we play Harris more at SF, then Morris and SJ won't get enough.

I'm curious to know Stan's plan for Leuer/Ellenson because it doesn't add up how we're going to get them both minutes over the next 4 years.

So I'd guess one of them will disappoint the most because one of them just isn't going to play by default, and it will either be viewed as a wasted 1st rd pick or wasted cap space.

Baynes is gone either this season or in the off-season. Then I think Leuer gets half his time at center, either he or Boban will get Dre back-up minutes depending on match-ups. So some nights Boban doesn't play and Leuer gets 15 minutes at center with Harris and Ellenson divvying up the PF minutes on those nights. If Baynes stays this year, Henry red shirts - focuses on getting stronger but doesn't see the court.

Come next season we'd be looking at the scenario I wrote about above with Ellenson getting 18mpg in games where Leuer is the better back-up Ce option, so about half the games. Given this would be his first taste at playing time, it would suffice. Then come 2018-2019 season Harris, Mook will be in their contract walk years and we'd likely look to keep one of them and trade one in the off-season leading into that season to get something of value in return - we'd extend the other. So by Ellenson's 3rd season he could be starting with Johnson and Dre in the front court with one of Morris/Harris backing up both the SF and PF.

Or Ellenson could be a bust and never earn or push for any court time.

[Todd3]

The length and dollars on Leuer's contract make this an easy call.

Even if he pans out as a solid bench guy that's a lot of cheddar, easily the highest probability of blowing up in our face.

That's something that hasn't been discussed enough that I wondered about too. We drafted Ellenson 18th and then basically signed the same player in Leuer for 4 yrs 40m a week later, and there's only going to be enough minutes for one of them with Harris needing min there too.

So either our 18th pick doesn't play at all his first 4 years and never develops, or he plays and we have 10m/yr of our cap sitting on the bench doing nothing in Leuer.

And if we play Leuer/Ellenson more at C, then Baynes/Boban won't get enough minutes. If we play Harris more at SF, then Morris and SJ won't get enough.

I'm curious to know Stan's plan for Leuer/Ellenson because it doesn't add up how we're going to get them both minutes over the next 4 years.

So I'd guess one of them will disappoint the most because one of them just isn't going to play by default, and it will either be viewed as a wasted 1st rd pick or wasted cap space.

Baynes is gone either this season or in the off-season. Then I think Leuer gets half his time at center, either he or Boban will get Dre back-up minutes depending on match-ups. So some nights Boban doesn't play and Leuer gets 15 minutes at center with Harris and Ellenson divvying up the PF minutes on those nights. If Baynes stays this year, Henry red shirts - focuses on getting stronger but doesn't see the court.

Come next season we'd be looking at the scenario I wrote about above with Ellenson getting 18mpg in games where Leuer is the better back-up Ce option, so about half the games. Given this would be his first taste at playing time, it would suffice. Then come 2018-2019 season Harris, Mook will be in their contract walk years and we'd likely look to keep one of them and trade one in the off-season leading into that season to get something of value in return - we'd extend the other. So by Ellenson's 3rd season he could be starting with Johnson and Dre in the front court with one of Morris/Harris backing up both the SF and PF.

Or Ellenson could be a bust and never earn or push for any court time.

So let's say by year 2 Leuer/Boban are taking turns as backup C, 15 mpg each every other night, which would be about 7 mpg each at C on the season.

Then Ellenson plays 18 mpg at PF, leaving 20 mpg for Harris and 10 mpg for Leuer.

So now Ellenson/Leuer are each getting 17-18 mpg, a semi-fair amount for a 2nd yr 18th pick & 10m/yr backup PF.

However, that means Harris and Boban (23m of our cap) are only playing 27 mpg combined.

Something has to give. Not enough minutes for all of them.

[coordinator0]

eh, Ellenson best asset might be his ability to play off the dribble. They both can.

Leuer is more mobile but it's not like he's Anthony Davis. Neither are anything special athletically.

Regardless how similar they are/aren't, both play the same position and that's the point. How are both going to get enough minutes?

Ellenson doesn't have the foot speed to do anything off the dribble against real NBA players/bigs. His handles are nice but nothing much is going to come of it unless he works and vastly improves on his mobility.

Both Leuer and Ellenson are backup rotation bigs. They will get their time based on matchups off the bench, and their minutes probably won't be particularly consistent night-to-night. It's not a huge deal.

[Blkbrd671]

Some of you guys keep forgetting context. 12-15mil is going to be the league average for a decent starter. Right now with old contracts , it seems like they are "bad contracts" but once everyone is brought up to the new median, KCP @15 mil is going to look like a steal

[Todd3]

eh, Ellenson best asset might be his ability to play off the dribble. They both can.

Leuer is more mobile but it's not like he's Anthony Davis. Neither are anything special athletically.

Regardless how similar they are/aren't, both play the same position and that's the point. How are both going to get enough minutes?

Ellenson doesn't have the foot speed to do anything off the dribble against real NBA players/bigs. His handles are nice but nothing much is going to come of it unless he works and vastly improves on his mobility.

Both Leuer and Ellenson are backup rotation bigs. They will get their time based on matchups off the bench, and their minutes probably won't be particularly consistent night-to-night. It's not a huge deal.

It's a big deal when you used the 18th pick on one and spent 10m/yr on the other. That's too much resources invested for them to only amount to 1 backup PF combined on a nightly basis.

Sorry not seeing much difference between Ellenson's/Leuer's ability to score off the dribble other than one being a vet/rookie. When Ellenson is developed in a few years, it's not like THAT is going to be the deciding factor between who plays. We're not talking Reggie vs KCP difference here. If anything Ellenson projects to be the better big at it.

[coordinator0]

It's a big deal when you used the 18th pick on one and spent 10m/yr on the other. That's too much resources invested for them to only amount to 1 backup PF combined on a nightly basis.

Sorry not seeing much difference between Ellenson's/Leuer's ability to score off the dribble other than one being a vet/rookie. When Ellenson is developed in a few years, it's not like THAT is going to be the deciding factor between who plays. We're not talking Reggie vs KCP difference here. If anything Ellenson projects to be the better big at it.

Well, yeah that's obvious.

The 18th+ pick in this draft was widely expected to net a team a rotation-caliber player, not a starter. Ellenson didn't really drop all that much. He's not really a starting-quality prospect and I don't think those kinds of expectations should be placed on him. That's not who he is or what was available in that range for this draft.

$10 million for Leuer, or any other player, is what to expect for quality rotation players (or guys who aren't expected to start in other terms) when the cap is this high. Next season that won't even be a tenth of the cap and it's only a bit over this year. His total contract value is only tied for 30th for free agents this season, and there are still some guys left on the board who will get more. This is the new salary cap reality.

[Todd3]

It's a big deal when you used the 18th pick on one and spent 10m/yr on the other. That's too much resources invested for them to only amount to 1 backup PF combined on a nightly basis.

Sorry not seeing much difference between Ellenson's/Leuer's ability to score off the dribble other than one being a vet/rookie. When Ellenson is developed in a few years, it's not like THAT is going to be the deciding factor between who plays. We're not talking Reggie vs KCP difference here. If anything Ellenson projects to be the better big at it.

Well, yeah that's obvious.

The 18th+ pick in this draft was widely expected to net a team a rotation-caliber player, not a starter. Ellenson didn't really drop all that much. He's not really a starting-quality prospect and I don't think those kinds of expectations should be placed on him. That's not who he is or what was available in that range for this draft.

$10 million for Leuer, or any other player, is what to expect for quality rotation players (or guys who aren't expected to start in other terms) when the cap is this high. Next season that won't even be a tenth of the cap and it's only a bit over this year. His total contract value is only tied for 30th for free agents this season, and there are still some guys left on the board who will get more. This is the new salary cap reality.

You're clearly not understanding this.

Even if the 18th pick should only amount to a rotation player, and even if 10m/yr for Leuer is also a fair price for a rotation player, if there's only room for 1 in the rotation at a time, then you're paying 2 for the price of 1 and THAT is the problem.

[coordinator0]

You're clearly not understanding this.

Even if the 18th pick should only amount to a rotation player, and even if 10m/yr for Leuer is also a fair price for a rotation player, if there's only room for 1 in the rotation at a time, then you're paying 2 for the price of 1 and THAT is the problem.

There are at least two backup bigs in a rotation, no? As much as I like the signing I don't think Marjanovic is a "true" backup at center, he's more matchup-specific. Boban might see 14 minutes one night, then 2 the next. Beuer and eventually Ellenson fill all the gaps in between, and then either gets a playing time boost when more size is needed at power forward. It's kind of ideal actually.