What are the chances Paul George leaves Indy in a few years?

[pacerfan1984]

This was a topic that was raised among a group of Pacer fans I spoke with so I figured I would put the question out there to you guys. Let me know what you think. Does Paul George leave Indy when his contract is up?

[Boneman2]

I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger if I had any inclination he'd walk.

[chube]

For some reason, the Lakers scare me a bit in this regard. He has shown such an affinity for the Lakers/Kobe Bryant, he's from LA, and by then, that core of Russell/Ingram/Randle/Clarkson could be very impressive.

And even though Larry has done a nice job retooling while still remaining competitive, there's always the fact that Larry has parted ways with personnel PG is close to (Hibbert, GH3, Orlando Johnson, Vogel and Danny.). By now/then, Paul should know it's a business but still.

Of course, this could still be a lingering effect of Durant ditching OKC despite being competitive on the Thunder and saying all the right things about loving the team and city. Pre-Durant's decision, I might've thought differently


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[pacers33granger]

Always a chance, but it doesn't seem likely his opt out season will be another one where so many teams have space. In other words, I don't see him able to join a contender like Durant did.

The Lakers could be a threat, or their guys could stagnate, or they could blow their cap on someone else. If things work out right, I could see the Pacers being his best realistic option to contend by the time he can opt out. A lot could depend on Myles' development though.

[Pacersike]

Right now, 50-50, but it could all change in next season. Remember it was mostly David West who carried the Pacers to the ECFs.
Paul has yet to prove he can carry a team as far.

I like Ingram and Russell though

[Moooose]

Knowing how professional Paul George is, he'd likely expect the Pacers personnel and fans alike to respect his decision should he opt out for another team. At the end of the day, it is still a business and you gotta do what you gotta do.

[Jermainevent]

Yeah, the Lakers are a concern for me as well Chube. They do have some nice young pieces, and they are bound to land a good-to-great free agent, even Westbrook next summer perhaps.

And the key to getting George staying could very well be Myles Turner. If he develops like we expect him to, he could be one of the top true big men in the East in a couple of years. There's quite a few young bigs in the East right now trying to solidify themselves among the elite, Drummond is great and still ascending. Porziņģis has just begun to scratch the surface, one of Philly's big men is bound to do something at some point. Whiteside just got paid, deservedly so. Horford and Howard are both on their way down, so I don't really count them. Ibaka could really improve with Vogel as his coach, so that will be interesting to keep watch of the next couple of years.

The point is, there could be some really good fours and fives in the east the next couple of years, but of that group, Myles I think possesses the most diverse skill set. If he can prove himself rather quickly, it certainly improves our chances of keeping Paul in the Blue and Gold.

[basketballwacko2]

For some reason, the Lakers scare me a bit in this regard. He has shown such an affinity for the Lakers/Kobe Bryant, he's from LA, and by then, that core of Russell/Ingram/Randle/Clarkson could be very impressive.

And even though Larry has done a nice job retooling while still remaining competitive, there's always the fact that Larry has parted ways with personnel PG is close to (Hibbert, GH3, Orlando Johnson, Vogel and Danny.). By now/then, Paul should know it's a business but still.

Of course, this could still be a lingering effect of Durant ditching OKC despite being competitive on the Thunder and saying all the right things about loving the team and city. Pre-Durant's decision, I might've thought differently


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The thing we need to do is get on the stick next summer and extend Paul, give him a huge raise and long term deal.

[Wizop]

With cap going up, getting early extensions done may be hard.

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[Grang33r]

Knowing how professional Paul George is, he'd likely expect the Pacers personnel and fans alike to respect his decision should he opt out for another team. At the end of the day, it is still a business and you gotta do what you gotta do.

Colin Cowherd (i know, awful source) once said something that made sense to me, which has stuck with me for a while. Pacers were playing the Bulls last season and George got fouled on the final shot but it wasn't called. Cowherd said, PG loses out on points bc refs call less fouls on him, and thus loses potential wins, and that all plays a role in his legacy. To get those calls, you gotta play in LA, Miami or NY... so if PG wants to be a star, he can stay, if he wants to be great, he needs to leave to get the extra fouls and get to the line, ect. I'm not exactly sure how accurate that take is, but each time he gets fouled and runs back with his arms flopping at the refs, i lose focus for a few seconds and just think about this quote by Cowherd.

[Moooose]

Knowing how professional Paul George is, he'd likely expect the Pacers personnel and fans alike to respect his decision should he opt out for another team. At the end of the day, it is still a business and you gotta do what you gotta do.

Colin Cowherd (i know, awful source) once said something that made sense to me, which has stuck with me for a while. Pacers were playing the Bulls last season and George got fouled on the final shot but it wasn't called. Cowherd said, PG loses out on points bc refs call less fouls on him, and thus loses potential wins, and that all plays a role in his legacy. To get those calls, you gotta play in LA, Miami or NY... so if PG wants to be a star, he can stay, if he wants to be great, he needs to leave to get the extra fouls and get to the line, ect. I'm not exactly sure how accurate that take is, but each time he gets fouled and runs back with his arms flopping at the refs, i lose focus for a few seconds and just think about this quote by Cowherd.

I've read articles and heard podcasts that is quite like that, but not just about PG. More like the NBA favoring big market teams because at the end of the day, nobody would want a Nuggets vs. 76ers matchup in the finals. Even the Christmas Day games features the big market teams even if they are not really winning at all. The officiating has something to do with it too, after all they are part of the business. Example was the IND-MIA matchup back in 2012 when Wade shoves Collison very intentionally and did not get a suspension. The volume of fouls that superstars get is very obvious, see Kobe as a very obvious example. So many theories, and it goes on and on.

But I agree with your quote about Cowherd. Though he is not the fountainhead of that theory, I think the sentiment is mutual among fans and experts alike. To stay on topic, I really wouldn't be mad if PG leaves Indiana for a big team. It's a business and an opportunity. He has mouths to feed and dreams of greatness to pursue.

[Wizop]

I think complaining about calls costs you calls. I think the stars get calls. I think rookies get hazed. I don't think Paul will get fewer calls playing in a small market. Do you think KD and RW were mistreated in OKC?

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[Scoot McGroot]

Knowing how professional Paul George is, he'd likely expect the Pacers personnel and fans alike to respect his decision should he opt out for another team. At the end of the day, it is still a business and you gotta do what you gotta do.

Colin Cowherd (i know, awful source) once said something that made sense to me, which has stuck with me for a while. Pacers were playing the Bulls last season and George got fouled on the final shot but it wasn't called. Cowherd said, PG loses out on points bc refs call less fouls on him, and thus loses potential wins, and that all plays a role in his legacy. To get those calls, you gotta play in LA, Miami or NY... so if PG wants to be a star, he can stay, if he wants to be great, he needs to leave to get the extra fouls and get to the line, ect. I'm not exactly sure how accurate that take is, but each time he gets fouled and runs back with his arms flopping at the refs, i lose focus for a few seconds and just think about this quote by Cowherd.

So, Miami's a surprisingly small market. It really doesn't fit in with the whole narrative of "The NBA wants the big cities to win". Atlanta, Detroit, and Minneapolis-St. Paul are all larger markets, but aren't "pushed" by the NBA. No matter where they play, stars get calls. Melo got them when he was in Denver. KD got them in OKC, while Westbrook still does.

Ultimately, stars get calls. Paul George has just started to enter that realm. We'll see if he starts getting calls over the next year or two.

[Moooose]

Knowing how professional Paul George is, he'd likely expect the Pacers personnel and fans alike to respect his decision should he opt out for another team. At the end of the day, it is still a business and you gotta do what you gotta do.

Colin Cowherd (i know, awful source) once said something that made sense to me, which has stuck with me for a while. Pacers were playing the Bulls last season and George got fouled on the final shot but it wasn't called. Cowherd said, PG loses out on points bc refs call less fouls on him, and thus loses potential wins, and that all plays a role in his legacy. To get those calls, you gotta play in LA, Miami or NY... so if PG wants to be a star, he can stay, if he wants to be great, he needs to leave to get the extra fouls and get to the line, ect. I'm not exactly sure how accurate that take is, but each time he gets fouled and runs back with his arms flopping at the refs, i lose focus for a few seconds and just think about this quote by Cowherd.

So, Miami's a surprisingly small market. It really doesn't fit in with the whole narrative of "The NBA wants the big cities to win". Atlanta, Detroit, and Minneapolis-St. Paul are all larger markets, but aren't "pushed" by the NBA. No matter where they play, stars get calls. Melo got them when he was in Denver. KD got them in OKC, while Westbrook still does.

Ultimately, stars get calls. Paul George has just started to enter that realm. We'll see if he starts getting calls over the next year or two.

I stand corrected, but I mean big market by the following that teams have. By the time the Big Three were there in Miami, their fanbase went berserk, even overseas. And so the NBA, being a business, capitalized on that. Another example would be the Christmas Day games. The NBA is just being wise, and as you term it, it "pushes" matchups that will net them a bigger profit.

[Boneman2]

Stern was infatuated with Miami's perceived value as the east coast's LA, thus they were gifted LeBron and Bosh. For comparison, the NFL does not coddle Miami, or LA for that matter. The NFL is the exact opposite with teams from Seattle, Denver, Indy, Pitt and GB drawing huge ratings, in fact I believe the Pitt vs. GB Superbowl is still the most watched television event of all time. Green Bay, Wisconsin and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The NBA laughs at these markets, yet they dominate the biggest sport in America because markets are a myth.

Talks of market size were a joke if you consider how they were determined. Indy literally had itself, a few college towns and a bunch of cornfields it could market to. Now with league's recent expansion on market-size we can finally advertise throughout Indiana. The Pacers are on the doorstep of St. Louis to the west, extending to the western suburbs of Columbus and encapturing Cincinnati as well. To the south our reach now encompasses Lexington and Louisville, and to the north we can advertise on the doorsteps of Chicago and Detroit. This will change everything.

The fact Peyton was the most highly endorsed athlete means Indy's market is more than fine. The NBA is bull#$^#%ing folks.

[Scoot McGroot]

Stern was infatuated with Miami's perceived value as the east coast's LA, thus they were gifted LeBron and Bosh.

How would you say that Miami was "gifted" Lebron and Bosh? Both guys took less to play with their friend (Dwyane Wade), and under a man they viewed as a legend they wanted to play with in Pat Riley, and were able to do so in a state that had no personal income tax. They fit in under the salary cap, and the team dealt with future luxury tax issues head on.

So, how were they "gifted" to Miami?

[Boneman2]

Stern was infatuated with Miami's perceived value as the east coast's LA, thus they were gifted LeBron and Bosh.

How would you say that Miami was "gifted" Lebron and Bosh? Both guys took less to play with their friend (Dwyane Wade), and under a man they viewed as a legend they wanted to play with in Pat Riley, and were able to do so in a state that had no personal income tax. They fit in under the salary cap, and the team dealt with future luxury tax issues head on.

So, how were they "gifted" to Miami?

Why not form the team in Toronto or Cleveland? Pat Riley is a snake by the way.

[Scoot McGroot]

Stern was infatuated with Miami's perceived value as the east coast's LA, thus they were gifted LeBron and Bosh.

How would you say that Miami was "gifted" Lebron and Bosh? Both guys took less to play with their friend (Dwyane Wade), and under a man they viewed as a legend they wanted to play with in Pat Riley, and were able to do so in a state that had no personal income tax. They fit in under the salary cap, and the team dealt with future luxury tax issues head on.

So, how were they "gifted" to Miami?

Why not form the team in Toronto or Cleveland? Pat Riley is a snake by the way.

Toronto and Cleveland didn't have anywhere close to the cap to sign all 3. Miami did. Cleveland could clear enough cap to get Bosh with Lebron (which was the plan up until "The Decision"), but not Wade (at least, not at anything over the minimum salary). Toronto didn't have room for a 2nd player either way. So, either they all play together in Miami, or Lebron and Bosh play together in Cleveland, or they don't play together at all. That was it. That was how Miami made it happen. They had EVERYONE either come off their books, or they paid with a pick in trades to dump any other salary they had. Yes, Riley is a snake, of course. But he did it fair and square. And by the book. He wasn't gifted anything by the league. He did it on his own, and with Wade as his "ambassador".

[Boneman2]

How would you say that Miami was "gifted" Lebron and Bosh? Both guys took less to play with their friend (Dwyane Wade), and under a man they viewed as a legend they wanted to play with in Pat Riley, and were able to do so in a state that had no personal income tax. They fit in under the salary cap, and the team dealt with future luxury tax issues head on.

So, how were they "gifted" to Miami?

Why not form the team in Toronto or Cleveland? Pat Riley is a snake by the way.

Toronto and Cleveland didn't have anywhere close to the cap to sign all 3. Miami did. Cleveland could clear enough cap to get Bosh with Lebron (which was the plan up until "The Decision"), but not Wade (at least, not at anything over the minimum salary). Toronto didn't have room for a 2nd player either way. So, either they all play together in Miami, or Lebron and Bosh play together in Cleveland, or they don't play together at all. That was it. That was how Miami made it happen. They had EVERYONE either come off their books, or they paid with a pick in trades to dump any other salary they had. Yes, Riley is a snake, of course. But he did it fair and square. And by the book. He wasn't gifted anything by the league. He did it on his own, and with Wade as his "ambassador".

The collective, being all of those involved, could have built their dynasty in Cleveland without it looking suspicious. Cleveland was a 60 win team and Miami sucked before the now infamous LeDecision. LeBron's departure from Cleveland was similar to Shaq's departure from Orlando. It was only a matter of time before Cleveland and Orlando became the next beacons of greatness.

How were they gifted you ask. Because the NBA allows corporations to collude with players. I assure you whatever the three Amigos lost in salary, they more than made up for it with incentivised endorsements stating if player X signs to play in market X then we'll pay him 20-50% more. Many shoe endorsements have similar language that encourages this activity. Also don't forget Time Warner is actively subsidizing the Lakers by allowing them to circumvent the tax threshold. LA's signed a 20 year 3,000,000,000.00 deal in 2011. It starts low then increases, regardless they are making appr 150m per season. The Pacers on the other hand make between 5-8 M per season.

Certainly you can see how 142m in extra income, paid annually, is a huge advantage. You do realize this amount more than covers their entire payroll while ours couldn't cover a bench scrub. Even during contending seasons when they were paying 3-to-1, it hardly fazed them. Revenue sharing is the only way. The NBA as a whole would benefit immensely.

I maintain Miami was gifted LeBron during the whole South Beach craze. Now, once reality sets in, the same Miami fans who left early during the playoffs, won't even bother showing up. Book it. That franchise is dreadful unless they are gifted great players. I do have to give LA credit though. As it appears they are rebuilding the proper way, however, very soon they'll trade it all in for Westbrook and our very own PG.

[Scoot McGroot]

The collective, being all of those involved, could have built their dynasty in Cleveland without it looking suspicious. Cleveland was a 60 win team and Miami sucked before the now infamous LeDecision. LeBron's departure from Cleveland was similar to Shaq's departure from Orlando. It was only a matter of time before Cleveland and Orlando became the next beacons of greatness.

The collective couldn't have built their dynasty (Lebron, Bosh, and Wade) in Cleveland at all. Cleveland was working to clear enough cap space to sign just Chris Bosh to go with keeping Lebron, but there was no chance they could've added Wade, without one, or all 3 players to take even more massive salary cuts than they took in Miami (where they didn't really take massive cuts at all, but just a little less).

How were they gifted you ask. Because the NBA allows corporations to collude with players. I assure you whatever the three Amigos lost in salary, they more than made up for it with incentivised endorsements stating if player X signs to play in market X then we'll pay him 20-50% more. Many shoe endorsements have similar language that encourages this activity. Also don't forget Time Warner is actively subsidizing the Lakers by allowing them to circumvent the tax threshold. LA's signed a 20 year 3,000,000,000.00 deal in 2011. It starts low then increases, regardless they are making appr 150m per season. The Pacers on the other hand make between 5-8 M per season.

So, I'm not sure where to go with this. The NBA actually doesn't allow teams to collude with players. That's all they can actually monitor. Corporations, like Nike or Under Armour, could always say that they'll pay more if a player were in a big market (Miami actually isn't a big market, though), and Lebron was always getting top dollar from Nike no matter where he played. However, the corporation cannot collude with the team to pay a player more than his maximum per the CBA. That's all the NBA can do, and they do that.

Certainly you can see how 142m in extra income, paid annually, is a huge advantage. You do realize this amount more than covers their entire payroll while ours couldn't cover a bench scrub. Even during contending seasons when they were paying 3-to-1, it hardly fazed them. Revenue sharing is the only way. The NBA as a whole would benefit immensely.

So, yes, $142m in extra income annually would be a huge advantage. It doesn't work that way, though. That money is essentially the property of the entire NBA, and is distributed through revenue sharing every single year. Much like the misnomer that people think that signing Jeremy Lin will make that team an extra $10m in jersey sales, when it doesn't work that way. Jersey sales and tv revenue money are shared amongst all the NBA teams. So, LA making that extra money benefits the Pacers immensely, too. We, the Pacers, want LA to sign a massive deal with Time Warner like that, because we receive a good portion of it every year via revenue sharing agreements currently in place in the CBA. Yes, the Lakers get a little larger portion of it, but we still get a good amount of it, too. And we need that portion, too.

I maintain Miami was gifted LeBron during the whole South Beach craze. Now, once reality sets in, the same Miami fans who left early during the playoffs, won't even bother showing up. Book it. That franchise is dreadful unless they are gifted great players. I do have to give LA credit though. As it appears they are rebuilding the proper way, however, very soon they'll trade it all in for Westbrook and our very own PG.

I maintain that Miami only had a whole South Beach craze because Lebron, Wade, and Bosh signed there. Chicken or the egg, if you will.

Either way, ultimately, it comes down to this. In the current NBA, players want to play with their friends, and sometimes are willing to take a little less (not massively less) to do so. Miami had the ability at that time to sign all 3 players, with all 3 guys taking just a little less than their maximum salary (not at all large discounts). Cleveland did not. Toronto did not. No one else had that ability.

Now, if you think that PG is a superstar, and that his friends would want to play with him, then look to deal Monta Ellis for an expiring contract this year. Hope that Stuckey/Miles play well and opt out. Decline the team option on Lavoy Allen at the end of the season. You know what that means? That means you'd have around $32m in cap space to use (while still keeping the cap hold on Jeff Teague, and the ability to resign him up to the max with his Bird Rights). Would any of Paul George's friends want to come play with him on a max salary if it also meant they still got to play with Myles Turner, Jeff Teague, and Thad Young? Now, that would be using the system that exists to our favor. We'd still have to convince players to play in Indiana, instead of a more "happening" town. But, it could happen.