More Sustainable Performance - Kemba or Marv?

[yosemiteben]

Curious to hear some thoughts on this. One of the concerns about retaining Marv is that the past season may end up being an outlier and his shooting efficiency and surprising interior defense contributions might go AWOL. I think those are fair concerns, given his age and how unusual a season that was based on Marv's historical performance. Marv's performance was so unusual that I think for a long time we treated it like I and many others treated the Panther's regular season - it took a LONG time for us to think that maybe the floor wasn't going to fall out and that he could maintain that level of play for the whole season (regrettably not the post-season, though injuries may have played a role there). I still think we are underestimating how much Marv contributed to our success last season, so the converse of that is I do think there is a pretty big risk that we will seriously underperform next season if Marv's performance drops off.

With that said, I haven't seen much talk or concern expressed at all about Kemba. Last season Kemba's shooting game improved in a big way, something we had been longing for and which totally opened up his driving game. Not that he isn't already ridiculously highly motivated, but after seeing how much easier it is to navigate on offense when defenses have to respect your perimeter game, you have to think that Kemba is going to do everything he can to replicate or even improve on that shooting performance this season. With that said, Kemba regressing some in his shooting efficiency is possible and would be pretty disappointing. I'm not sure it would have as big an impact as Marv regressing, guess that's open for debate, but he is the closest player on this team to a reliable go to scorer when we need a basket and I think we'd feel it in the win column if his shots stopped falling. I'm trying to not be concerned at all about his knee, but I am a bit concerned about the wear and tear he's getting. I really hope that between Marco and Sessions we have decent ball handling on the second unit that can give Kemba some more rest.

Just curious to see some discussion of whether you feel like Kemba or Marv had a sustainable performance and why. I don't think there is anyone else that we can really say could be viewed as having overperformed last season, but if you think so feel free to toss them into the discussion too.

[Kembastockton]

Marvin

I am not overly surprised. He was a former number two overall pick. My thoughts are that he finally found a situation in which his natural talents were allowed to flourish. I imagine he will be similar if not exactly the same another season or two before age catches him.

Kemba

I am extremely concerned about Kemba. His game is completely dependent on his speed. Two knee surgeries is worrisome for his speed. I am fearful of his ability to continue his high level play.

[Mystical Apples]

Kemba' age and peak coinciding with Nic's contract make his season more sustainable. That said, a reversion for Kemba would be more damaging considering alternative options and Marvin's ability to slide positions.

[fatlever]

I'm expecting both to fall back at least a little from last year. Kemba is coming off another knee surgery and I still don't completely trust his remade jumper. Losing Lin will hurt Kemba some as well. Marvin will likely play less minutes this year with MKG returning and Frank hopefully improving enough to steal some more of Marvin's minutes. MKG will also steal some of Marvin's rebounds.

Kemba - 19.0 ppg, 5.5 apg, 41% FG, 35% 3pt
Marvin - 10.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 45% FG, 38% 3pt

[rallydurham]

I think marv will perform similarly next season. Shooting is one of the skills that doesn't really deteriorate unless the guy has some sort of injuries hampering his ability to get good looks or perform (*cough* elbow?)

Kemba I'm a little concerned we rely on him a LOT and that position is awfully demanding. His shooting was pretty spectacular with regards to its improvement so regression is probably more likely than continued improvement.

If those guys play at last year's level, kaminsky finds his game, and mkg can stay healthy we have a definite shot at competing for the best EC regular season record.

That's a lot to ask for though and good grief does our bench stink.


It's pretty insane how little belief people have in us on the GB. They seem to think we will be lucky to make the playoffs because we lost lin, lee, and jefferson. As if those were the guys we relied on.

After ASB we had as good a record as anyone in the league. It wasn't so much LEE as it was replacing terrible guys like Hairston in our lineup. Mkg is a better player than Lee so as long as he can shoot well enough not to destroy our spacing we should be improved in that regard. People say well he might not stay healthy, but Lee only played 28 games for us.

Concern over losing Lin? Now that hes gone can we quit pretending he was a key player for us? He shot poorly and had high turnovers. He had a few big games and just as many offsetting terrible ones.

Jefferson we hit our stride with him barely playing.

I think we can win 50 games next year. Just need to stay healthy. Hopefully, we can make a move midseason to make this a more formidable playoff roster. Perhaps hibbert, hawes, sessions deals will be palatable for trades. We definitely need a better guard off the bench

[HornetJail]

Kemba easily. I've been saying for years that he's a 22/7-ish guy with better teammates around him. He may not get 7 assists, but he's got a real offense around him and I expect his all-star caliber seasons to come year after year. Kemba would've put up 20/5 for the last 2-3 seasons if our offense hadn't been a dumpster fire since 2011.

Let's be real, nobody saw this coming from Marvin. I'm still a little shaky about offering Marvin a four-year contract given that he's been straight up mediocre his entire career up until this season. I still think he'll be a good shooter and good defender for us, but this past year just screams "contract year". I'm still not really thrilled with him and Hibbert being the only rim protectors on the roster, since that effort Marvin displayed at the rim would be the first thing to go if he is a contract year performer.

[JDR720]

im going to say Kemba. Marvin has never had a season like that in his career, his previous best 3pt shooting season was in 11-12 when he shot 39%, the next season he shot 32%.

I actually think Kemba will score more this season, but his efficiency will go down.

guess

Kemba- 22/5/4 on 41/35/85
Marv- 9/6/1 on 44/36/80

[Mystical Apples]

Playing Devils advocate Kemba's TS of 51.2% and 3P of 27.1% without Batum on the court were both at or below his career averages. With Cody but without Nic seemed to have the largest negative impact on Kemba which could be from higher usage and primary focus.

[HornetJail]

Playing Devils advocate Kemba's TS of 51.2% and 3P of 27.1% without Batum on the court were both at or below his career averages. With Cody but without Nic seemed to have the largest negative impact on Kemba which could be from higher usage and primary focus.

Yeah I also think a lot of that has to do with the fact that if Nic was off the floor, there was a pretty good chance that the defense focuses directly on Kemba and lets everyone else beat them.

[bws94]

Kemba still has Nic to help him out. I think that Cliff plays him too many minutes. He's what, 26 now? So, he's going to have his speed and quickness for years to come. He really improved his jumper, so hopefully it'll be as reliable as it was last season. I think he may have a heavier load this season, and I don't know if missing just one game is realistic, but he's crafty enough that even if his physical situation deteriorates some due to nagging kind of stuff, he has many different ways of doing what he does through craftiness.

Marv, I don't know. He works hard, but he's 30 and there's mileage and wear on tear on him. Maybe he comes close to last year's production.

[reelsgm]

Concern over losing Lin? Now that hes gone can we quit pretending he was a key player for us? He shot poorly and had high turnovers. He had a few big games and just as many offsetting terrible ones.

So Kemba beat the Lakers, Sixers, Wolves and Bucks while Lin beat Cavs, Spurs, Bos and playoff Heat; yep those big games offset the terrible ones LIn played against the Lakers, Wolves and Bucks.

MKG slips slides too. In 7 magical games he doubled his career total of 3pt shots made, tripled 3P% and increased his FG% by a whopping 16% all without altering his shot, that won't be sustained. And at some point MKG might also decide he doesn't want to be tagged as "injury-prone" any longer and pull back on the throttle, how does that affect his offense? That's an unknown but it likely would affect his defense negatively.

Expect to see volume shooting Kemba put up at least as many points (but less efficiently) and still, as per usual have the rest of the team not support Kemba's heroics adequately thus again not having much success against playoff caliber teams.

Big men peak earlier than backcourt players, drop at a steeper rate with age and Marvin just got a Jim Buss "pay the man for all he has DONE" not what he will do in the future deal. http://www.nbaminer.com/golden-ages-of-basketball-players/

[Joest2003]

Walker is entering his prime athletic years 26-30 and its more than likely he will improve each season. Marvin is more so on the tail end of his prime but had his best season last year sice the 08 season. I cant really see Marvin having a better season than last year. We know what we will get from those 2 but the future of this team depends on the improvement of Zeller, MKG and Lamb. Zeller needs to average a double double this season or hes a bust im sorry. Dude is 7 feet and a overall #4 pick. MKG needs to stay healthy. We really missed his toughness in the playoffs last season.

[rallydurham]

By all accounts We signed marv to one of the best value deals in the entire nba this offseason. I mean good grief he was a key player for a 48 win team and he got less than tons of bench players.

I'm not gonna try to make sense of what you are saying about kemba and lin.

Mkg needs to stop diving on floors. He can play defense without being wreckless. And 1-2 plays a game is not worth injury so I hope he stops playing in that manner.

[fatlever]

Don't turn this into Kemba vs Lin

[rallydurham]

Exactly. The bottom line is that kemba affected our total win output by a significant amount of wins.

According to vorp kemba was worth about 12 wins. Now we can argue all day about whether it was truly 9 wins or 14. But the bottom line is we aren't a .500 team without kemba and everyone reasonable would agree with that.

Lin according to vorp was worth about 1.3 wins. Now we can argue all day over whether he produced 0 net wins or 2, but the bottom line is that he did not have a significant impact on our regular season record.

Now he did play well given his salary, but that has nothing to do with our record.

Sessions can shoot just as well as Lin and essentially replaces his output. It should have an extremely minor impact on our record

[fatlever]

Don't turn this into Kemba vs Lin

[Braggins]

I also expects Kembas efficiency to drop a little, although I also wouldn't be surprised if it didn't or even improved. I'm expecting his scoring numbers to be about the same. I'm hoping that he won't have to work as hard on his jumper this offseason and will have more time to focus on watching film and working on his playmaking. I think that is the next logical step for him to make another leap in his game.

Marv is weird. I actually kind of think he can mostly maintain his last season performance for at least another year and I don't really think he'll have a steep drop for a while. I feel like his game is based around doing a few simple things fairly well and not being bad in any particular area. As long as he stays in shape I dont think we'll see his defense drop for another year or two. All he really needs to do is stay in shape and keep shooting 35%+ from deep and he'll be successful in his role here. Having said all that, it is kind of concerning that last season was such an outlier, but I kind of get the feeling that it is because adjusting to the position switch has allowed his game to truly thrive, but Idk.

[antique0o0]

Depends on how many wide open shots the team will creat for them.
Kemba shoots better when his shots aren't contested. So does Marvin.
Sessions might be able to help. But I don't think Kemba and Sessions could play off each other many minutes each game.
So maybe Marvin.

[Mystical Apples]

A rolling sample size of 1000 3PA is a fairly decent number for 3P% to stabilize.

Kemba last 1000: 34.5% (vs 37% in 2015-16). 34.5% is a lowish 2016-17 estimate given the possibility of legitimate improvements and poor roster construction the previous 2 years. Guessing 35-37%.

Marvin last 1000: 37.1% (vs. 40% in 2015-16). He shot 35.9% the previous 2 years so 36-38% is a decent range.

[reelsgm]

Edit - you've been warned twice. Move on from Lin talk in this thread. YB