***Our Annual - Predict The Heat 2016-2017 Regular Season***

[RexBoyWonder]

So we might see a roster change or 2 down the road, but the core pieces and main rotation is pretty much set. Which means we can have the traditional prediction thread.


Interesting to note that last year, the "Wisdom of the crowd" of Heat board did a really great job predicting our season, our median average prediction (thx Gom) was only 1 game off from the actual record we ended up having. (we predicted 49.5 wins, ended up with 48). Also seems that most of us pridicred the 3rd or 4th seed (ended up 3rd after tie breaker).

Last years Prediction thread :
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=1400748#p44409172

How wisdom of the crowd effect works :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd


So without further ado, let's get after it - All answers should address the Regular Season :


1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?

3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?

4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?

6) Which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?

8) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?

9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)

10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?



16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?

[RexBoyWonder]

Also looking at last years thread - looks like the most accurate posters were :


Chalm Down - who predicted 47 wins, 4th seed and a second round Exit.

Slot Machine - who predicted 49 wins, 4th seed, and a second round exit (in 7 games)

Spoiler:

Iggie was the worst

[Picklewagon]

32 wins. 12th seed in the east

[gom]

After Bosh is off the team, my new answers are in red.


1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
42 (lowered from 28 on Aug 3, 2016, raised from 25 on Aug 31, 2016)
25

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?
Yes. 7th.
No


3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
was Whiteside = 15, Dragic = 15, TJ = 13, Richardson = 12 (Winslow=11, Williams=10, J Johnson=9, McRoberts = 7, Ellington = 7, Waiters=6
new Bosh = 17, Whiteside = 14, Dragic = 14, TJ = Richardson = Winslow = 11, Williams = 9, J Johnson = 7, Reed = Waiters = McRoberts = Ellington = 5
Whiteside = 15, Dragic = 15, TJ = 12, Babbitt = 11


4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?
Reed will be a reliable backup center. Williams will also play well.

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?
I'm going with TJ, but Winslow & JRich will also play well. Look out for Weber too who will play well if he gets minutes.

6) which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?
Winslow

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
was Chris Bosh.
Now I think Waiters.
BOSH


8) Which trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
-> Stupid: Whiteside will be traded for draft picks and expiring contracts. He isn't interested in being the face of a losing franchise.-> Now: We'll trade for a piece at the trade deadline using Williams, Waiters, etc to bring back an expiring. I just hope it isn't Rudy Gay.
No trades of significance.


9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
-> Riley announces his retirement.
Nah...
Bosh will play the entire season.
Jonathan Isaac will fall to 10 where we will scoop him up


10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
He did better than he should have.

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
Whiteside stops going block crazy and instead becomes better at post up game and defending pick & rolls.

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
McRoberts scores 10 points in a game.

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
King David and his new wife have a baby twins. Congratulations!

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
A couple good draft picks.
A trip to the playoffs and a decent pick.

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
How long it takes to realize how bad we really are.
Bosh's health. Injuries in general though must be kept to a minimum.

16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?
No.
Pitchforks.
We finish 7th and take out Boston (2nd)
Then we crush the Raptors and Cavaliers
Finally we beat Golden State
We will finish 11th or 12th in the East

[Mos_Heat]

1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
36 wins

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?
Nope

3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Goran - 22 ppg Hassan - 19 ppg Williams - 13 ppg J-Rich - 12 ppg

4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?
Derrick Williams

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?
Winslow

6) which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?
Goran

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Winslow

8) Which trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
No trades

9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
Hassan shooting 3s(positive) / 80% of the league can defend against fast-pace team(negative)

10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
Average coach, had success only cuz of Lebron and Wade

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player
TJ best 3-point shooter; team better defensively without Hassan

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
Wade's first game in Mia

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
Iggi announces his retirement as Satan

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
top-5 pick(success) / 1 round exit(failure)

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
Up-tempo basketball

16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?
-

[KingDavid]

So we might see a roster change or 2 down the road, but the core pieces and main rotation is pretty much set. Which means we can have the traditional prediction thread.


Interesting to note that last year, the "Wisdom of the crowd" of Heat board did a really great job predicting our season, our median average prediction (thx Gom) was only 1 game off from the actual record we ended up having. (we predicted 49.5 wins, ended up with 48). Also seems that most of us pridicred the 3rd or 4th seed (ended up 3rd after tie breaker).

Last years Prediction thread :
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=1400748#p44409172

How wisdom of the crowd effect works :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd


So without further ado, let's get after it - All answers should address the Regular Season :


1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season? With Bosh; 44. Without Bosh; 26

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be? with Bosh; yes. 7th seed. Without Bosh; Josh Jackson, welcome to Miami!

3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Dragic will average 20 points per game. The rest depends on Bosh's availability

4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?
Willie Reed. Going to be a solid backup.

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?
Justise Winslow.

6) which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?
Justise Winslow. All nba defensive team?

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Justise Winslow's jumpshot.

Lols, nah. Chris Bosh.

8) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
If Bosh is out for good, we're doing a full on tank so Dragic will be shipped out for a pick next draft.

9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
Making the playoffs.

10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
He messed up our draft positioning.

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
Whiteside averaging over 2 assists per game.

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
Winslow has a month of hot shooting from downtown.

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
IggieCC will be banned from making game threads.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Growth or regression of our youngsters.

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
Chris Bosh.



16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?
Obliterated in the first round. Feeling of regret for not tanking.

Answers in blood.

[gom]

I answered a similar question on the T&T board:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1464498&p=48672950#p48672950

[SCHeat]

1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
30. Bosh and Dragic are too good for us to be worse.

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?
No.

3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Dragic = 20, Whiteside = 17, Richardson - 14, Winslow = 12

4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?
No new addition will really be noteworthy

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?
Winslow, Richardson close second

6) which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?
Winslow

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Ellington

8) Which trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
McRoberts. Dragic will be on draft night 2017 IMO.

9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
Bosh doesn't have a re-occurrence of clots.

10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
He did OK, not great but not his fault either

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
Whiteside 4 blocks/game

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
Whiteside hits a gamewinning 3 against Brooklyn that bumps us from picking 4th to 8th on the last week of the season

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
?

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Getting a good draft pick. Trading McRoberts. Healthy Bosh (not really for basketball reasons, mainly just because I like him and want to see his career resume). Making a smart trade for Dragic if we decide to do it.

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
Depends on how you define success. Success is showcasing Dragic/Bosh, developing the young guys, trading McRoberts, and netting a great pick.

16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?
Won't make it

[gom]

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Ellington

To be a disappointment don't you have to fail to meet expectations? I can only guess Ellington must be shooting baskets for the other team then.

[IggieCC]

[gom]

Our season in a nutshell:

[DayofMourning]

1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
15
2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?
No
3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Dragic-29, JRich-15, Hassan-15, Winslow-11
4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?
Luke Bobbitt
5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?
J Rich
6) Which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?
Tyler. He has to play to deserve his contract, and he didn't play that much last year.
7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Derrick Williams. Could be a nice surprise, but has generated the most interest, therefore will be the biggest bust if he doesn't produce.
8) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
Dragic mid season if the wheels come off.
9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
Dragic leading the league in scoring.
10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
Don't let go of the rope.
11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
Hassan averages 2 assists a game.
12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
Hassan goes postal.
13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
Iggie goes postal.
14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Watching the youth improve.
15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
The youth improves.

[SCHeat]

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Ellington

To be a disappointment don't you have to fail to meet expectations? I can only guess Ellington must be shooting baskets for the other team then.

Ha. That's true.

[puppa bear]

1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
27

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?
No

3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Dragic (18.4), Whiteside (16.2), Richardson (12.1), Johnson (11.8)

4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?
Williams (PER 15.2, 9.6ppg, 6.4rpg)

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?
Richardson

6) Which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?
Dragic - he will look like a true leader & floor general.

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Weber - will look lost out there a lot this year & turn the ball over/foul way more than we expected. Don't waited, he'll be fine the following year.

8) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
Nothing major. Minor deals around expiring players to contenders for late picks & prospects.

9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
TJ lives up to the expectations that come with his new average salary.

10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
He played the vets way too much in a development year. Specifically Williams and Ellington.

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
J-Rich is second in rebounding.

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
The awkward interactions from our new FAs when Wade plays his first game back in Miami - like they give a ****.

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
Pass.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Clear direction and leadership, either towards a tank or a rebuild on the fly. Depends on Bosh.

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
Direction from above: develop or win ...

16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?
We won't. We will win our last game & miss out on a top-5 pick by 1 game.

[Chalm Down]

**This is assuming Bosh is not playing this season. I reserve the right to revise my predictions if his status is updated

1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?

37

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?

._.

3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?

Dragic - 18

Whiteside - 16

Tyler Johnson - 12

Richardson - 10

4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?

My heart is telling me Babbitt, but I'll go with Derrick Williams. He seems like he has an interesting offensive skillset...hopefully his defense will improve in Miami.

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?

Winslow

6) Which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?

Winslow

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?

No one. I will have no expectations, so I won't be disappointed

8) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?

McRoberts? Haven't the trade rumors been going on for a year lol

9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)

Luke Babbitt will become a cult hero. I'm on the hype train

10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?

Hmm...I feel like the Spo opinions have gotten pretty diverse on here. Hopefully we will continue to appreciate his GOAT reaction gifs.

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.

We WILL have two left-handed Slovenian point guards on this roster eventually

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.

Wade playing against the Heat in a Bulls jersey

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.

dflash3 will descend from the heavens to perma-ban Iggie in a blaze of MODglory. The post announcing the banishment will collect the most and1's in realgm history.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?

Success will include developing the players and gaining a better idea of what pieces are needed for the next great Heat team. Also, watching a fun, hard-working team would be cool too

Failure would be all of that not happening

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?

Health, I guess? I don't think you can develop guys or have fun when you're injured

16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?

._.

[eddieheatfan]

i expect them to be 38-44 and i'd be surprised if the heat wins more games like that....

[DayofMourning]

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.

dflash3 will descend from the heavens to perma-ban Iggie in a blaze of MODglory. The post announcing the banishment will collect the most and1's in realgm history.
._.

I don't think any post will beat out "He Piston himself" when Greg Monroe got drunk and wet himself. That post got 1200+ And1s. I don't think the poster ever posted again either.

[Prince Ali]

1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
44

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?
5th

3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Dragic - 23 ppg
Whiteside - 19 ppg
TJ - 13 ppg
Richardson - 12 ppg

4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?
D. Williams

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?
Richardson

6) Which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?
Winslow

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Ellington

8) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
None

9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
Tank commanders will abandon their posts by early February.

10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
best coaching job of his career

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
Winslow leads league in minutes played

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
We'll beat GS by 10+

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
I dont know who the long time posters are.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Success - making the playoffs, no matter the outcome.
Failure - not making the playoffs

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
Health of Dragic + Whiteside



16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?

lose in 6 in semis

[QUIZ]

So without further ado, let's get after it - All answers should address the Regular Season :


1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
28

2) Will we make the playoffs this year? If yes - what seed will we be?
No

3) Who will be our top 4 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Goran will average 19.5ppg, Hassan will average 15.8ppg, TJ will average 12ppg, and J Rich will average 10ppg.

4) Who will be our best overall new addition (new at Miami)?
Luuuuuuuuuuuuke... JK

Probably Derrick Williams.

5) Who will be our best overall young player (not including Whiteside)?
TJ

6) Which player will make the biggest improvement from last year?
TJ

7) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Wayne Ellington

8) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
Goran, TJ, J Rich for Westbrook. We'll at least offer it though another team may offer something better.

9) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
TJ will look like a steal.

10) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
He's gotten good at developing players.

11) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
We're a top 5 team in pace.

12) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
Luke Babbit will hit 6 three pointers in a single game.

13) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
Iggie's bound to do something...

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Success: tank or trading for a star. Failure: treadmill team.

15) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
Goran, the health of him and Hassan, as well as how far our young guys progress.


16) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?
We're not making the playoffs.

[Chalm Down]

I like how everyone is mentioning Iggie lol