Official West Conference Prediction Thread - updated 10/25/16

Moderators: Clav, Domejandro, ken6199, bisme37, Dirk, KingDavid, cupcakesnake, bwgood77, zimpy27, infinite11285

Veggamattic
Veteran
Posts: 2,830
And1: 1,419
Joined: Sep 11, 2006

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#121 » by Veggamattic » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:54 am

ken6199 wrote:I figured if we are going to do this we might as well do it properly, here is my proposal.

Rules:
- I will collect the voting once a month, and update the results at month end.
- You have one vote per month. Feel free to edit your post anytime, cut off day is the last day of the month.
- I will record your prediction associated with your user ID, so don't spam.
- At season ending, I will report the analysis of
- Predicted vs actual finishing position for each team
- Best and worst predictors among us posters

A few notes on the formatting:
- Feel free to use team abbreviations or actual team names, e.g. GSW/GS/Warriors, CLE/Cavs, Blazers/Portland/POR, I will have filters handling them.
- You can either predict top 8, or the whole 15 teams. Latter is preferred.
- Try not to add your reasoning inline, such as "Raptors (because I think xxxxxx)" - this helps me a lot.

The hope is we contain all prediction into one thread, and with all the data collected, we have something meaningful to look back at the end of the season, and reward (shame) the best (worst) predictors. Safe to say I am not the best Excel user or data mining expert, so I welcome all suggestions, here or PM.

TL;DR, just post your prediction below.

Link to the east conference thread:
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1462464


I'm not sure how you are planning on scoring this but there is s simple little math formula that works well. Points are bad...you get point by missing your prediction. The number of points you get is based on how many places you are off by. So, if you say Utah will finish 8th in the division and they come 5th...you get 3 points, if they come 10th you get 2. Add up the points and lowest wins.
User avatar
ken6199
Forum Mod - Rockets
Forum Mod - Rockets
Posts: 13,435
And1: 18,740
Joined: Jan 05, 2015
Location: Bill O'Brien is GOAT
     

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#122 » by ken6199 » Wed Jul 13, 2016 5:08 am

Veggamattic wrote:
ken6199 wrote:I figured if we are going to do this we might as well do it properly, here is my proposal.

Rules:
- I will collect the voting once a month, and update the results at month end.
- You have one vote per month. Feel free to edit your post anytime, cut off day is the last day of the month.
- I will record your prediction associated with your user ID, so don't spam.
- At season ending, I will report the analysis of
- Predicted vs actual finishing position for each team
- Best and worst predictors among us posters

A few notes on the formatting:
- Feel free to use team abbreviations or actual team names, e.g. GSW/GS/Warriors, CLE/Cavs, Blazers/Portland/POR, I will have filters handling them.
- You can either predict top 8, or the whole 15 teams. Latter is preferred.
- Try not to add your reasoning inline, such as "Raptors (because I think xxxxxx)" - this helps me a lot.

The hope is we contain all prediction into one thread, and with all the data collected, we have something meaningful to look back at the end of the season, and reward (shame) the best (worst) predictors. Safe to say I am not the best Excel user or data mining expert, so I welcome all suggestions, here or PM.

TL;DR, just post your prediction below.

Link to the east conference thread:
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1462464


I'm not sure how you are planning on scoring this but there is s simple little math formula that works well. Points are bad...you get point by missing your prediction. The number of points you get is based on how many places you are off by. So, if you say Utah will finish 8th in the division and they come 5th...you get 3 points, if they come 10th you get 2. Add up the points and lowest wins.


Appreciate the thoughts.

Yes that's pretty much what I planned to do, although I will a long season to work on that anyway. I was planning to do some sort of average deviation or mean square error, which is a bit more complicated version than yours.

I see a scenario where you proposal won't work though. Image we have three teams, and this is the standings:
ABC - actual finishing positions
BCA - Mike's prediction
CBA - John's prediction
Here Mike will score 1+1+2=4 points, John will score 2+0+2=4 points. That's a tie, but I think Mike is the winner here, who got BC right but got ambushed by A (KD season ending injury?). John got the order of three teams completely wrong.

The above case, if you use variance, Mike is 0.3 and John is 1.3. It echoes that Mike is the far better predictor.
RealGM loves you, Melissa.
User avatar
yoyoboy
RealGM
Posts: 15,866
And1: 19,077
Joined: Jan 29, 2015
     

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#123 » by yoyoboy » Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:18 pm

1. Golden State: 67-15
2. San Antonio: 57-25
3. Los Angeles Clippers: 54-28
4. Utah: 50-32
5. Oklahoma City: 44-38
6. Minnesota: 42-40
7. Memphis: 41-41
8. Houston: 40-42

9. Portland: 39-43
10. New Orleans: 39-43
11. Dallas: 38-44
12. Denver: 36-46
13. Sacramento: 35-47
14. Phoenix: 26-56
15. Los Angeles Lakers: 22-60


I think the West is going to be relatively poor compared to past years. No team stands any chance whatsoever against Golden State. The Spurs just lost 3 of their top 5 players in BPM this past season (Duncan, Boban, West). Ginobli and Parker will probably take another step back. Gasol is a solid addition, but he's 36 years old. And I thought they overachieved with 67 wins as it was last year, just based on the roster talent. With Pop, Kawhi, Aldridge, and their role players, they can get get in the mid-50s in the win column, but they haven't advanced past the second round these past 2 years, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again. (Please prove me wrong Spurs!)

The Clippers will post a decent record, but they haven't improved their roster since last year and their best hope is a WCF appearance.

I really like Utah's roster. Going from Burke to Hill is a huge upgrade. They just needed a competent PG to run he offense. Also, it helps to get back Exum, and their young guys should continue to develop. Based on their record, opposed to their SRS, they underachieved by about 5 wins last year, and I expect them to not only outdo that expected 45-37 record, but win about 50 games. That being said, they're not posing any sort of threat whatsoever to Golden State, and I don't expect them accomplish an throng more than a 2nd round appearance this upcoming season either.

The Thunder roster has no outside shooting, a relatively poorly fitting backcourt, and question marks at the forward positions. However, Westbrook should drag them to around 44-45 wins.

Minnesota will get even more develop from the youngsters, and Thibs is the perfect guy to get the team to buy in on defense and play playoff-level basketball.

The rest of the teams are going to be close, and I could see them all duking it out for playoffs spots while posting win marks around the mid-late thirties with a few maybe getting past that 40-win point. Injuries will no doubt play a factor.

The Lakers and Suns are the clear two worst teams in my opinion. They've got decent pieces for the future, but in the present, they're going to be terrible teams.
User avatar
rocopc
Pro Prospect
Posts: 877
And1: 72
Joined: Jul 17, 2006
Location: Buenos Aires
         

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#124 » by rocopc » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:25 am

1- Warriors
2- Spurs
3- Clippers
4- Blazers
5- Thunder
6- Jazz
7- Grizzliez
8- Mavs

9- Wolves
10- Rockets
11- Pelicans
12- Suns
13- Nuggets
14- Kings
15- Lakers
"No dejes que tus pensamientos escapen de tu control"
User avatar
spacemonkey
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,551
And1: 8,661
Joined: Nov 24, 2004

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#125 » by spacemonkey » Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:34 am

GSW
SAS
LAC
MEM
POR
UTA
OKC
MIN



HOU
DAL
DEN
LAL
PHX
NOP
SAC
User avatar
ElectricMayhem
RealGM
Posts: 10,245
And1: 11,495
Joined: Jul 01, 2006
Location: Kobe-Osaka
 

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#126 » by ElectricMayhem » Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:49 am

1. Golden State Warriors: 65 17
2. Los Angeles Clippers: 57 25
3. San Antonio Spurs: 56 26
4. Utah Jazz: 49 33
5. Portland Trailblazers: 45 37
6. Oklahoma City Thunder: 44 38
7. Dallas Mavericks: 41 41
8. Houston Rockets: 40 42
9. Memphis Grizzlies: 39 43
10. Minnesota Timberwolves: 38 44
11. Denver Nuggets: 37 45
12. Sacramento Kings: 37 45
13. New Orleans Pelicans: 34 48
14. Los Angeles Lakers: 21 61
15. Phoenix Suns: 19 63
Tom Gores' Securus faced a class action lawsuit in 2024. The company engaged in a "quid pro quo kickback scheme" with county jails in Michigan which banned in-person visits in order to maximize revenue from voice and video calls.
Merc_Porto
General Manager
Posts: 9,941
And1: 3,540
Joined: Nov 21, 2013
   

Re: Re: Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#127 » by Merc_Porto » Thu Jul 14, 2016 11:22 am

1. Warriors
2. Spurs
3. Clippers
4. Jazz
5. Grizzlies
6. Timberwolves
7. Blazers
8. Thunder

9. Mavericks
10. Rockets
11. Nuggets
12. Kings
13. Lakers
14. Pelicans
15. Suns
User avatar
bhelser1981
Freshman
Posts: 57
And1: 26
Joined: Jul 20, 2010
         

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#128 » by bhelser1981 » Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:23 pm

1 - Warriors
2 - Spurs
3 - Clippers
4 - Blazers
5 - Grizzlies
6 - Rockets
7 - Mavericks
8 - Timberwolves

9 - Thunder
10 - Jazz
11 - Pelicans
12 - Jazz
13 - Kings
14 - Suns
15 - Lakers
User avatar
goober
GOTB's Cancun
Posts: 13,936
And1: 5,978
Joined: Jun 09, 2014
     

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#129 » by goober » Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:40 pm

I'm gonna do best case scenario for the Jazz, so basically go all homer

1. GS with 70 wins
2. SAS with 63 wins
3. Utah with 56 wins
4. LAC with 55 wins
5. Memphis with 49 wins
6. Portland with 49 wins
7. Dallas with 45 wins
8. OKC with 44 wins
----------------------------
9. Houston with 42 wins
10. Minnesota with 38 wins
11. Denver with 36 wins
12. New Orleans with 36 wins
13. Sacramento with 30 wins
14. Phoenix with 25 wins
15. LAL with 24 wins
User avatar
Potential
RealGM
Posts: 21,313
And1: 45,814
Joined: Feb 28, 2015
   

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#130 » by Potential » Fri Jul 15, 2016 3:05 pm

GSW 78-4
SAS 62-20
LAC 58-24
OKC 48-34
POR 48-34
MEM 47-35
HOU 43-49
MIN 42-40

NOP
UTA
DAL
DEN
SAC
PHX
LAL
NBARocks
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,794
And1: 1,507
Joined: Feb 25, 2014
Contact:
   

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#131 » by NBARocks » Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:12 am

GSW
SAS
MIN
LAC
MEM
POR
SAC
OKC

NOP
DAL
HOU
UTA
DEN
LAL
PHO
bakesale
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,365
And1: 1,776
Joined: Nov 24, 2013

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#132 » by bakesale » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:40 am

1. Warriors
2. Spurs
3. Clippers
4. Trailblazers
5. Jazz
6. Thunder
7. Rockets
8. Grizzlies
_____________

9. Timberwolves
10. Mavericks
11. Pelicans
12. Nuggets
13. Lakers
14. Kings
15. Suns
xfactor99
Junior
Posts: 433
And1: 403
Joined: Feb 18, 2011
     

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#133 » by xfactor99 » Sun Jul 17, 2016 5:50 am

1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. LA Clippers
4. Utah
5. Portland
6. Houston
7. Dallas
8. Oklahoma City
9. Minnesota
10. Memphis
11. New Orleans
12. Denver
13. Phoenix
14. Sacramento
15. LA Lakers
PhillyNj
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,757
And1: 640
Joined: Jul 21, 2010

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#134 » by PhillyNj » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:04 pm

Goober wrote:I'm gonna do best case scenario for the Jazz, so basically go all homer

1. GS with 70 wins
2. SAS with 63 wins
3. Utah with 56 wins
4. LAC with 55 wins
5. Memphis with 49 wins
6. Portland with 49 wins
7. Dallas with 45 wins
8. OKC with 44 wins
----------------------------
9. Houston with 42 wins
10. Minnesota with 38 wins
11. Denver with 36 wins
12. New Orleans with 36 wins
13. Sacramento with 30 wins
14. Phoenix with 25 wins
15. LAL with 24 wins

My initial reaction to these projections.
GS will win more
SAS will win less
UTAH is very high
Dallas is very high there really bad
SAC aren't winning more than 25
Suns and Lakers won't reach there marks either.

SUMMERY I guess I'm projecting the East to be the better conference, for the first time in a long time.
Golden state are the HEAVY favorites to win the tital though.
User avatar
rcfc1
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,043
And1: 1,586
Joined: Oct 16, 2012
     

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#135 » by rcfc1 » Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:35 am

GSW
SAS
LAC
Utah
Memphis
Portland
NOP
Dallas

Houston
Minnesota
OKC
Denver
Sacramento
Phoenix
LAL
floppymoose wrote:I'm starting to see the value of adding Durant.
SpreeS
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,780
And1: 4,142
Joined: Jul 26, 2012
 

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#136 » by SpreeS » Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:31 pm

The situation with RW is clear, he'll stay in OKC, so my prediction is.

1 GSW
2 LAC if Griffin healfy
3 SAN lost TD, Diaw, West, Bob M and get oldy Pau
4 OKC RW stays at home
5/6 MEM/POR
7/8 UTA/DAL
9/11 HOU/MIN/NOP
12/15 LAL/SAC/DEN/POH
SF_Warriors
General Manager
Posts: 7,507
And1: 3,795
Joined: Jul 12, 2012

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#137 » by SF_Warriors » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:37 pm

I think utah and minny will make the playoffs

Minny looks really good onpaper, good top end talent and a lot of depth

Rubio/dunn
lavine/bazz
wiggins/rush
dieng/hill
KAT/dieng/hill/pek

I see little to no weaknesses. They still do not have great outside shooting, but every position has a good starter and quality depth
Walmart
Starter
Posts: 2,493
And1: 1,461
Joined: Apr 26, 2007

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#138 » by Walmart » Tue Jul 19, 2016 5:37 am

1- Warriors
2- Spurs
3- Blazers
4- Clippers
5- Grizzlies
6- Jazz
7- Thunder
8- Wolves

9- Mavs
10- Rockets
11- Pelicans
12- Nuggets
13- Kings
14- Lakers
15- Suns
AlciG
Veteran
Posts: 2,515
And1: 537
Joined: Aug 03, 2006
Location: The Netherlands
     

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#139 » by AlciG » Tue Jul 19, 2016 8:35 am

PhillyNj wrote:Golden state are the HEAVY favorites to win the tital though.


Sorry, don't mean to be a grammar nazi but this is the first time I've seen title spelled tital :wink:

But you're 100% correct...

Nobody is beating the Warriors in the west.
Being the defending champs I guess you have to give the Cavs a chance to beat them, but I just don't see it happening. Maybe they get them to 6 games but that's it.
User avatar
ken6199
Forum Mod - Rockets
Forum Mod - Rockets
Posts: 13,435
And1: 18,740
Joined: Jan 05, 2015
Location: Bill O'Brien is GOAT
     

Re: Official West Conference Prediction Thread - July 

Post#140 » by ken6199 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:39 pm

A few take outs from the data gathered so far:
- GSW locked in 1st (obviously)
- SAS/LAC neck to neck for 2nd
- UTA POR heavy favorites for 4th spot, more than MEM!
- LAL dead last (which I personally disagree)
- one guy has OKC 15th (u got to be kidding)
- one guy has HOU 15th (again, u got to be kidding)

Nevertheless, all opinions are entitled and welcome. With 7 pages of data I think we will all converge to a pretty consistent prediction. Thanks for participating!
RealGM loves you, Melissa.

Return to The General Board