What are your expectations for the Bulls?

[Rerisen]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2016/on-off/

I'd like to know the full story because his on/off statistics would say otherwise (unless I'm misunderstanding On/Off statistics, I'm no expert!):

Offense with Pau: 105.2
Offense without Pau: 104.5

Opponent offense with Pau: 106
Opponent offense without Pau: 107.3

With Pau on the game the Bulls where 0.7 better on offense and 1.3 points better on defense.

I would agree with the stats that he was a net positive, just not a very big one.

And if we are going to put lots of stock in these stats, Mirotic was one of the top +/- players on the team (higher than Pau), so him getting more minutes via Pau's departure, seems like a good tradeoff. Also why I said no one player replaces him, but the combination rotations that will now be available, seem to work and fit the team better.

[jc23]

In truth it can go a many of ways for the BUlls. But my guess is they do just enough to get one of the bottom playoff spots. I do feel they would be a better playoff team opposed to regular season, one of my biggest concerns with this crew is effort from wade and rondo over 82 games. But in the playoffs all teams become dialed in, so a team like Chicago that has multiple players who can take it up a notch all of a sudden become much more dangerous.

[DuckIII]

Best 3 point shooter is their back up power forward

Second best? Backup small forward?

Maybe they can make it work?

Their best 3pt shooter is their backup small forward - McDermott. Who was 6th in the entire NBA. He's lights out.

Their second best is their starting power forward, Mirotic, who shot 39% last year.

They also have Bobby Portis who, though he struggled with his percentage last season (31%) clearly has the chops to be enough of a stretch 4 threat to spread out the floor.

They also drafted Denzel Valentine, who shot the deep ball at a very high percentage his last two years in college (though admittedly rookies tend to struggle their first year adjusting to the NBA three), and signed Isiah Canaan as a backup point guard with range. I don't know how much Canaan will play, but Valentine projects to play a ton.

I think what happens is people see the spacing problems created by a Rondo/Wade/Butler perimeter combination and attribute that to the entire roster. The Bulls have three point shooters on their roster at a variety of positions. That isn't to say its not an issue. It is. But I think its less an issue than is being declared.

The real key to all of this will be Hoiberg. Its, to say the least, a bizarre roster. He's going to have to figure out how to mix and match, and frequently rotate the pieces around to achieve the needed balance both offensively and defensively.

[DuckIII]

Oh, I project the Bulls between the 4th and 7th seed. Second round exit.

[guille_4]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2016/on-off/

I'd like to know the full story because his on/off statistics would say otherwise (unless I'm misunderstanding On/Off statistics, I'm no expert!):

Offense with Pau: 105.2
Offense without Pau: 104.5

Opponent offense with Pau: 106
Opponent offense without Pau: 107.3

With Pau on the game the Bulls where 0.7 better on offense and 1.3 points better on defense.

I would agree with the stats that he was a net positive, just not a very big one.

And if we are going to put lots of stock in these stats, Mirotic was one of the top +/- players on the team (higher than Pau), so him getting more minutes via Pau's departure, seems like a good tradeoff. Also why I said no one player replaces him, but the combination rotations that will now be available, seem to work and fit the team better.

Mirotic is a PF and Gasol at this stage of his career a C (played their too last season), but I guess Pau may have hindered Niko's minutes due to fit issues. I'm also eager to see Niko play.

[DuckIII]

Need more shooters

Got nobody in that 5 who can spread the floor

Mirotic does. And Butler is enough of a three point threat to keep defenders honest. Teams don't dare him to shoot like they did with Rose. But I agree its not enough - in the starting 5.

But the Bulls have shooters from a variety of positions on the bench. That's part of the reason why, as I mentioned earlier, the real key here is Hoiberg. The Bulls starting 5, perhaps moreso than any other team in the NBA, cannot be allowed to define style or set rigid minutes/rotations.

[Ugly0598]

Why not bring Wade off the bench as a sixth man (start McDermott) and preserve him? I think it's a good idea given his injury history.

[DuckIII]

Why not bring Wade off the bench as a sixth man (start McDermott) and preserve him? I think it's a good idea given his injury history.

I think its a great idea. But its just not going to happen unless Wade basically asks for it to happen. Regardless of who starts, I want to see both Wade and Rondo getting 6th man type minutes.

Basically I see the Bulls, ideally, as having only two "starters" when it comes to minutes: Butler and Mirotic (if he earns it, which I project he will). After that, I'd like to see reduced minutes for Wade and Rondo with larger roles for guys like McDermott and Valentine. And by "larger" I don't mean, for example, Valentine should play more than Wade. I just mean reduce Wade/Rondo minutes will adding more to the bench.

There are lots of reasons for this approach, due to offensive unit fits, age and defensive balance.

[r1terrell23]

Talent wise, I think we're talking about a 2nd/3rd tier team, but obviously the fit is less than ideal so that hurts us.

I think ceiling is 2nd seed, floor is .500. Likely a mid playoff team that breaks up after a year or two.

Everyone keeps talking about fit and spacing but I think the fit is pretty good. They are three good basketball players and minds so they will get in a groove. As for spacing we'll start Niko and still have some really good 3 point shooters on the bench who will log good minutes. This team is a 4-6 seed looking at the East. (Cle, Boston, Toronto, Indy/Chi/Det. If they gel I can see them beating Boston or Toronto in a series as well.

[bmurph128]

Anywhere from 30-50 wins. Could be really good...or not.

[The_Ghost_of_JB]

I think they will be a top 4 team in the east. Then again if Rondo returns the favor and puts Wade's arm in a Kimura lock to return the favor from 2011 they may miss the playoffs entirely.

[Flopper]

I think the spacing issue is slightly overblown since they have two solid shooters in Mirotic and McDermott that will be core rotation pieces along with few others further down that can as well depending on development and consistency. The reality is that very few teams have elite shooting from their very best players. Outside of GS, most squads rely on role players to space the floor, so the Bulls aren't too different in that regard.

The biggest issue will still be on the defensive end as it was during the second half of last year. Rondo is a downgrade defensively based on last years Synergy stats and rim protection provided by the center rotation as a whole will likely be worse with Lopez/Gibson/Felicio versus Gasol/Noah. There will also given more minutes allocated to Mirotic, Portis, and McDermott who were all brutal on the defensive end last year, though Doug did show improvement in the second half and could be a somewhat capable defender this year.

The Bulls will also be employing more aggressive PnR coverages in the hopes of denying the action and forcing more turnovers. Unfortunately they don't really have the personnel to do that since blitzing and hedging aggressively requires lots of length and speed from the 2-4 spots and outside of Butler, none of the expected core rotation guys really fit that type scheme.

[Rerisen]

Mirotic is a PF and Gasol at this stage of his career a C (played their too last season), but I guess Pau may have hindered Niko's minutes due to fit issues. I'm also eager to see Niko play.

Right, Lopez being a defensive starting center, will make Mirotic a natural fit next to him to help make up for the offense that Pau provided. Last year Fred Hoiberg tried starting Gasol and Mirotic together and the team just didn't have the defense or toughness with that lineup.

The Bulls also signed Dwyane Wade of course, so finding base level offense such as Gasol provided, should not be difficult.

[dockingsched]

I'd expect them to be one of the better lottery teams

[MGB8]

Bulls are a lot like the Knicks, but with a higher floor but lower ceiling. If everything falls just right, they could be a team that even gives Cleveland a bit of trouble (but a perfect storm for the Knicks would make them even more dangerous to the Cavs).

But the probability of everything going right, or even decent, isn't that high (better than the Knicks, but still...). Things could completely implode, but more likely, the Bulls are strong enough to make it to the playoffs in the bottom half of the east.

[MGB8]

Need more shooters

Got nobody in that 5 who can spread the floor

Mirotic does. And Butler is enough of a three point threat to keep defenders honest. Teams don't dare him to shoot like they did with Rose. But I agree its not enough - in the starting 5.

But the Bulls have shooters from a variety of positions on the bench. That's part of the reason why, as I mentioned earlier, the real key here is Hoiberg. The Bulls starting 5, perhaps moreso than any other team in the NBA, cannot be allowed to define style or set rigid minutes/rotations.

Hopefully, some of that comes naturally with Wade. For instance, I kind of expect Wade to get a lot of DNPs on the 2nd night of back-to-backs. And to have a soft minutes' restriction, which goes away for the playoffs.

Rondo also gets banged up a bit, and I wouldn't overuse him - let Wade and hopefully Valentine run together as joint point-combo-guards. Or even just Wade as the PG next to Jimmy at the 2, and McDermott at the 3.

[bulliedog8]

Bulls are a lot like the Knicks, but with a higher floor but lower ceiling. If everything falls just right, they could be a team that even gives Cleveland a bit of trouble (but a perfect storm for the Knicks would make them even more dangerous to the Cavs).

But the probability of everything going right, or even decent, isn't that high (better than the Knicks, but still...). Things could completely implode, but more likely, the Bulls are strong enough to make it to the playoffs in the bottom half of the east.

Knicks definitely have a higher ceiling than the bulls. Knicks also have a very low floor too though.

[Hoopz Afrik]

Not much. Don't really like the fit with Rondo and Wade.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

They don't space the floor particularly well but with that tandem you have one of the best distributors playing with one of the best cutters in the league. Both are heady vets tat should be able to work it out.

[Dominator83]

Bigs without post presente like, only Gibson has it and he's probably gone...Mirotic is still looking to be consistent thought he can give good minutes to them...but then that backcourt....
Sorry, but a Wade-Rondo - Butler perimeter is probably the worst fit in NBA recent years...
- Butler wants to be a Lebron type point - forward...and what the Bulls FO do? Pair him with another ball dominant player who is a bad shooter that is useless without the ball. (RONDO).
- So what is the next move? Obviously, sign another ball dominant player who can't space the floor who plays similar to Butler and that probably wants to take something like 20 shots per night...(WADE)
- So well, those moves could have some logic if Butler was a reliable 3 point shooter, which he isn't...
- And to finish one of the worst fits in NBA recent years...add all those pieces who take a lot off ISOs and use to get to the post to a Head Coach that wants to run the floor with a lot of ball movement...
So congrats to the Bulls management, for making a worse team year after year.
And another important thing that may happen...is that while having not any realistic chance to go far in PO...they also have fierce competitors like JB, Wade, Rondo...that would prevent them to go in to the lottery.
So they're basically the definition of a treadmill team.

The Joe Johnson Hawks and the Deron Williams Jazz got nothing on us!!

[Dominator83]

The Bulls are a pretty deep team. Here's how their depth chart currently projects:

C.Lopez/Gibson/Felicio
PF.Mirotic/Portis
SF.Butler/McDermott/Zipser
SG.Wade/Valentine/Snell
PG.Rondo/Canaan/Grant/Dinwiddie

As you can see, this is a very deep team. There are some spacing issues here in the starting lineup, but we have quite a few shooters off the bench. I think we'll combat the issues in the starting lineup by staggering our lineups. Wade will get subbed out early for McDermott, and then will come back with the bench unit surrounded by shooters like McDermott, Canaan, and even Portis. I think it'll work, and this is clearly a playoff team to me.

You realize this bench is actually kinda garbage, no?

Just putting a bunch of random names and saying it's "depth" doesn't actually make them good. The backup PG/SG/SF situation is absolutely atrocious. Even if Valentine is good for a rookie, he's not actually going to be good for an NBA player. Rookies almost universally stink. Even most of the "good" ones.

Gotta disagree here. Taj, Portis and Felicia make for a very solid front court bench of defensive rebounding bigs who can put the ball in the basket (unlike a guy like Noah). McDermott is one of the best shooters in the NBA, and I expect improvement this year for him. Valentine will have his ups and downs, but I would expect him to be one of the types of rookies who actually contributes due to his 4 years of college experience. Grant showed promise as a starter in last 6 games last year. Dinwiddie has size at the position. Canaan has started games and is your microwave 3 point shooter when team needs a jolt.

Add in that the Bulls will always have one of Wade, rondo or jimmy in there at any one time (I wouldn't think they ever sub out together) and yes, I think this bench might be one of the better benches in the league.

I'm in Vegas now, and I'm going to the game tonight. After the game I'm going to bet on the bulls to win the division this year!!!!

You do realize that Lebron is still in our division right?