Buy low, sell highs? Whose trade value will change significantly before the trade deadline?

Post #1 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:46 pm

Seems as good a time as any to get those big predictions out so you can chest thump (or eat crow).

-- Who will we be looking at in 6 months and viewing as a lot more valuable than they are now?
-- Who will we be looking at in 6 months and viewing as a lot less valuable than they are now?

And so this isn't just flogging your own team's players, no mentioning of anyone on your team.

Post #2 » by **BullyKing** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:53 pm

I don't know if his value will be higher or lower but Devin Booker is someone whose value I think will change drastically in one way or the other. His season was really a few months of simply incredible shooting and a few months of frankly pretty bad shooting. Figuring out whether the bad was a result of hitting the rookie wall or the good was just a hot streak will be interesting.

Post #3 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:56 pm

BullyKing wrote:I don't know if his value will be higher or lower but Devin Booker is someone whose value I think will change drastically in one way or the other. His season was really a few months of simply incredible shooting and a few months of frankly pretty bad shooting. Figuring out whether the bad was a result of hitting the rookie wall or the good was just a hot streak will be interesting.

Yep, but this is a thread for bold takes in one direction or another.

A place to claim that Milsap won't be viewed the same in 6 months and have much lower trade value, while Dion Waiters might actually have some.

Post #4 » by **bondom34** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:00 pm

Yeah Waiters came to mind. I'd add in Biyombo I think will be lower, as well as Ryan Anderson. Felicio is an interesting one on Chicago who may gain traction.

Post #5 » by **BullyKing** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:03 pm

Alright, fine!

Hot(tish) takes incoming:

Higher value:
Otto Porter
Jrue Holiday
Steven Adams

Lower value:
Serge Ibaka
Jimmy Butler (not that he'll be bad but I don't think the fit on and off the court with Wade and Rondo is a good one)
Kristaps Porzingis

Post #6 » by **Andre Roberstan** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:11 pm

Higher value:
Omri Casspi
Gary Harris
Eric Gordon
TJ Warren
Cristiano Felicio
Justin Holiday

Lower value:
Solomon Hill
Serge Ibaka
Harrison Barnes
Tobias Harris
Kelly Oubre

Post #7 » by **Texas Chuck** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:14 pm

dbrandon wrote:
Lower value:
Solomon Hill
Harrison Barnes
Tobias Harris

Curious what value you currently have on these three guys? I'd have Hill and Barnes as neutral at best, and Tobias with only moderate positive value. Scary thought to have one of these guys signed long-term if his value is going to drop from nothing.

Post #8 » by **Hawk Eye** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:19 pm

My bold prediction is Nikola Vucevic. He's a guy whose trade value generally gets bashed on quite a bit--particularly because of his defense. I think having Ibaka play next to him is going to make him look a lot better this year than previous years.

After seeing the type of money that was thrown around for guys like Mozgov and Mahinmi, I could see Vucevic's trade value changing significantly. He's only 25 and locked in for the next 3 years (counting this upcoming year) on a 3Y/36.75M contract. That's my sorta crazy prediction.

Edit: Forgot to mention Frank Vogel. Maybe Vogel can get his hands on Vucevic and help him become a better defender.

Post #9 » by **bondom34** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:19 pm

Another is Marcus Morris for me, his value went way up last year and if that continues he may be one of the best bargain deals around.

Post #10 » by **Andre Roberstan** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:23 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
dbrandon wrote:
Lower value:
Solomon Hill
Harrison Barnes
Tobias Harris

Curious what value you currently have on these three guys? I'd have Hill and Barnes as neutral at best, and Tobias with only moderate positive value. Scary thought to have one of these guys signed long-term if his value is going to drop from nothing.

Solo's on a decent size contract based on a small sample of good shooting. I don't have faith he can improve it, and if he doesn't his value will plummet like a rock.

My Harrison Barnes dislike is on record. One of these guys is on a max contract. The other is Quincy Acy.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=barneha02&y2=2016&p2=acyqu01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

I think if he doesn't adjust well he's going to be an albatross contract.

Same with Tobias. He's a decent enough player, but if he doesn't improve much I think his value will go down—people are still looking at him with the "potential" flag.

Post #11 » by **jbk1234** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:36 pm

If Marcus Smart doesn't show something by the trade deadline, I think you've got to wonder whether he's anything other than a poor man's Beverly who can't bully ball in the NBA like he did in college.

MatthewGeigerII · Post #12 » by **MatthewGeigerII** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:39 pm

porzingis will have to deal with alot of new faces in NY sharing the ball...

warren weel im · Post #13 » by **warren weel im** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:41 pm

D1gelo Russell will grow hotter from July to December. This will intensify Westbrook to LA suggestions, which will make both fanbases puke.

Post #14 » by **Texas Chuck** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:44 pm

warren weel im wrote:D1gelo Russell will grow hotter from July to December. This will intensify Westbrook to LA suggestions, which will make both fanbases puke.

HartfordWhalers wrote:
And so this isn't just flogging your own team's players, no mentioning of anyone on your team.

Post #15 » by **Slava** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:45 pm

Higher:

Rodney Hood
Kelly Oubre
Bradley Beal
Blake Griffin
Serge Ibaka

Lower:

Denis Schroeder
Bismack Biyombo
Ryan Anderson
Elfrid Payton
Rajon Rondo
Ricky Rubio

tiderulz · Post #16 » by **tiderulz** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:45 pm

dbrandon wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
dbrandon wrote:
Lower value:
Solomon Hill
Harrison Barnes
Tobias Harris

Curious what value you currently have on these three guys? I'd have Hill and Barnes as neutral at best, and Tobias with only moderate positive value. Scary thought to have one of these guys signed long-term if his value is going to drop from nothing.

Solo's on a decent size contract based on a small sample of good shooting. I don't have faith he can improve it, and if he doesn't his value will plummet like a rock.

My Harrison Barnes dislike is on record. One of these guys is on a max contract. The other is Quincy Acy.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=barneha02&y2=2016&p2=acyqu01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

I think if he doesn't adjust well he's going to be an albatross contract.

Same with Tobias. He's a decent enough player, but if he doesn't improve much I think his value will go down—people are still looking at him with the "potential" flag.

but you have Omri Casspi high at 28 yrs old, Harris is younger than Dipo and i bet looks a lot better with SVG having more time to evaluate his game and put him in the right spots.

Post #17 » by **Slava** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:47 pm

jbk1234 wrote:If Marcus Smart doesn't show something by the trade deadline, I think you've got to wonder whether he's anything other than a poor man's Beverly who can't bully ball in the NBA like he did in college.

I don't think anyone sees him as more than a defensive specialist even now.

Post #18 » by **Slava** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:48 pm

dbrandon wrote:Higher value:
Omri Casspi
Gary Harris
Eric Gordon
TJ Warren
Cristiano Felicio
Justin Holiday

Lower value:
Solomon Hill
Serge Ibaka
Harrison Barnes
Tobias Harris
Kelly Oubre

If tobias Harris value drops any lower than what he was traded for, that would be a new low.

Post #19 » by **Texas Chuck** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:51 pm

Value will decrease:

Gallo
Bledsoe
CJ McCollum
Barton
KCP

Increase:

MKG
Dragic
Wilson Chandler

Post #20 » by **Andre Roberstan** » Wed Jul 20, 2016 5:42 pm

Slava wrote:
dbrandon wrote:Higher value:
Omri Casspi
Gary Harris
Eric Gordon
TJ Warren
Cristiano Felicio
Justin Holiday

Lower value:
Solomon Hill
Serge Ibaka
Harrison Barnes
Tobias Harris
Kelly Oubre

If tobias Harris value drops any lower than what he was traded for, that would be a new low.

TBF I think most people would agree Hennigan should have gotten more.