Buy low, sell highs? Whose trade value will change significantly before the trade deadline?

[BismackonLebron]

Toronto Raptors
Higher value:
Norman Powell - Ready to breakout with more mins and a defined role.
Jonas Valanciunas - I expect a good increase in minutes and offensive possessions.
Demarre Carroll - Should finally be healthy and has learned thr system. His 15m/yr deal will look respectable for once.
Jared Sullinger - More motivated than ever to prove everyone wrong and cash in big next year with his one year deal.

Less value:
Jakob Poeltl - Just taken top 10, will likely see few mins and very few possessions. Raptors will treat him like a young JV, diminishing his value greatly.
Delon Wright - No mins with the roster as constructed, will likely be a throw in in a trade even though he is talented.
Bruno Caboclo - Entering his 3 Rf year and still looking like he's 2 years away from being 2 years away.
Terrence Ross - With the emergence of Powell, Ross looks to have his mins reduced greatly.

Edit: Just read the second half of the op, sorry.

Other teams I have.

Higher: Jabari, Winslow, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Lower: Bender, Noel , Griffin

[breatnach]

Higher: Okafor, Rubio, Nene, Jennings - basically anyone who is being traded for pennies on the dollar, because their team picked up a Rookie. Also anyone who signed a cheap 1 year deal to cash in big next year.
Lower: Every Rookie - because out of 30 first round picks, only 2-3 become above average starters in their first year. Possibly some players on the cusp of greatness, who may have a make-or-break year. Can Cousins finally get his team into the off-season? Can Rose return to his former self? Can Davis stay healthy and become the next great big man?

[Kizz Fastfists]

Lower- Wade, Noah, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard, Cousins, Elf Payton

Higher- Schroder, LaVine, Gary Harris, Cody Zeller, Olynyk, Cole Aldrich

[SunsBlood23]

Toronto Raptors
Higher value:
Norman Powell - Ready to breakout with more mins and a defined role.
Jonas Valanciunas - I expect a good increase in minutes and offensive possessions.
Demarre Carroll - Should finally be healthy and has learned thr system. His 15m/yr deal will look respectable for once.
Jared Sullinger - More motivated than ever to prove everyone wrong and cash in big next year with his one year deal.

Less value:
Jakob Poeltl - Just taken top 10, will likely see few mins and very few possessions. Raptors will treat him like a young JV, diminishing his value greatly.
Delon Wright - No mins with the roster as constructed, will likely be a throw in in a trade even though he is talented.
Bruno Caboclo - Entering his 3 Rf year and still looking like he's 2 years away from being 2 years away.
Terrence Ross - With the emergence of Powell, Ross looks to have his mins reduced greatly.

Edit: Just read the second half of the op, sorry.

Other teams I have.

Higher: Jabari, Winslow, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Lower: Bender, Noel , Griffin

I'm just curious as to why you put Bender as his value will decrease. What makes you think that? I am actually curious just cause he plays for my team and you are the only person I think to put him on your list.

[damecurry]

I see Mudiay/Stanimal both having major sophomore jumps which will propel them from the rabble into the top-tier prospect discussion.
If Parsons stays healthy he could have a huge year in Memphis, and on similar lines Tobias Harris could continue to improve on what he showed in detroit last year, both are just in perfect situations after having struggled to find the right fit for years.
I don't know what'll happen in Orlando but Serge is definitely in a position to rehab his value.
I think point Giannis will only get better and he might be viewed as a top 5-10 asset by the trade deadline.
I think a lot of the guys who were drafted later than expected just have to show some big flashes and they'll skyrocket, I'm thinking of Luwawu, Skal, Deyonta Davis, etc.

Jokic comes to mind as someone who will fall, I think his metrics were largely sample size and circumstance based, he just doesn't have the required skills/athleticism to be the type of asset some regard him as.
Porzingis will almost certainly free-fall, probably just temporarily, but this year he'll be brutally stifled by that ball-hogging roster.
Russell, never bought him all the way, still don't, think he'll show minimal progress and that next to mudiay's radical rise will really hurt D'Angelo's value.
Not sure what schroeder's value is but if he's thought of as a capable starting pg outside of ATL that will completely disappear, he'll be valued as a career backup once he shows he can't start this season.
The chicago situation is a mess and could hurt the perception/value of everyone on that roster... maybe mirotic thrives but that's about it.
Finally, the addendum I think is often ignored, a variety of older guys, especially those who have been relatively healthy recently, are a huge risk to get badly injured and become negative contracts.

[Mich3006]

Don´t have a clue who will have a higher value (Celtics 2017 BKN pick will be sky-high though) but I´m very sure Jimmy Butler´s and Blake Griffin´s value will be (very) low.

[tiderulz]

Lower:

3. Aaron Gordon - He's not a SF. Unless he really does come back with a great jumper, he's going to struggle. I see a lot of 85-80 games in Orlando's future. I'm just not sure Gordon will have quite the shine as he has now.

question, why is he not a SF? strictly because of questions about his jumper? everything else about his game is SF. Just wonder why you have that opinion.

i ask this because a lot of people seem to think he is a PF, if only from watching him as a PF in college. But anyone who has seen him play (like you have) would have to admit that his game is not a PF game. he is better perimeter defender than post defender, has SF's handling and passing, has very little inside game. just wonder why you say he isnt a SF

[MoneyTalks41890]

Lower:

3. Aaron Gordon - He's not a SF. Unless he really does come back with a great jumper, he's going to struggle. I see a lot of 85-80 games in Orlando's future. I'm just not sure Gordon will have quite the shine as he has now.

question, why is he not a SF? strictly because of questions about his jumper? everything else about his game is SF. Just wonder why you have that opinion.

i ask this because a lot of people seem to think he is a PF, if only from watching him as a PF in college. But anyone who has seen him play (like you have) would have to admit that his game is not a PF game. he is better perimeter defender than post defender, has SF's handling and passing, has very little inside game. just wonder why you say he isnt a SF

I really haven't seen him much outside of highlights, but the complete lack of a jumper is problematic IMO.

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1768/aaron-gordon/shotchart/

[165bows]

Higher:
Capela
Tavares
Aminu
Dwight Powell

Lower:
Mudiay
Nurkic
Randle
Len

[Smitty731]

Lower:

3. Aaron Gordon - He's not a SF. Unless he really does come back with a great jumper, he's going to struggle. I see a lot of 85-80 games in Orlando's future. I'm just not sure Gordon will have quite the shine as he has now.

question, why is he not a SF? strictly because of questions about his jumper? everything else about his game is SF. Just wonder why you have that opinion.

i ask this because a lot of people seem to think he is a PF, if only from watching him as a PF in college. But anyone who has seen him play (like you have) would have to admit that his game is not a PF game. he is better perimeter defender than post defender, has SF's handling and passing, has very little inside game. just wonder why you say he isnt a SF

It is all strictly about offense for me. I don't think he's ever going to shoot it well enough to be a SF, unless they add a lot of shooting elsewhere. And I don't think his ball handling is good enough either. He looks good as a ball handler when being defended by PFs or even Cs. But when he's matched against wings, he doesn't look nearly as good. Those guys get up in to him and he struggles a little. And this came from going back and watching hours upon hours on him after the team announced he would play SF. And all of the advantages he has as a PF are negated somewhat when he's playing SF. His quickness isn't as magnified and his ability to beat bigs off the dribble doesn't exist. And when he takes a wing off the dribble vs a big, he's now got 1 or 2 bigs waiting for him at the rim. When he takes a big off the dribble, at least one of them is eliminated from the equation because he's already beat them.

Defensively, which is how positions are defined in many ways, he'll be fine at SF. He might even be excellent there. His length and quickness and leaping ability will really help. When the Magic play Biyombo, Ibaka, Gordon, Fournier, Payton lineups, they have a chance to be one of the best defensive units in the league. The challenge is that lineup puts so much pressure on Fournier to be a scorer.

FWIW, I hope I'm wrong. I want him to be a SF and to be a huge breakout star. I'm just not sure it happens.

[pacers33granger]

2. Monta Ellis - He should be a scoring guard off the bench. He's not a very good with Teague. I think his value will plummet. Unless the Pacers do bring him off the bench. Then I take back what I just wrote.

Can his value really plummet? I mean most people seem to have him as a negative the minute he signed his contract and it's much more cap friendly now along with being a year shorter. And I personally think the fit thing is a bit overblown. He did fine not handling the ball last year (contrary to popular belief Hill did handle it a lot and obviously PG did as well) and while the SL needs more shooting, it's not like we have any Tony Allens in there clogging the paint (Turner being a good shooter helps tremendously).

[HartfordWhalers]

For Milsap, I see a guy approaching free agency when everyone has crazy money, getting older when thats not a good thing anymore, and in a very new offense where guys like Horford and Teague replaced with Dwight and more Schroder and then Jack?

Dwight is a lot less likely to generate as much open space as Horford -- who shot almost a fourth of his shots from 3.
Teague will be missed, even ignoring the backup minutes that Schroder doesn't get the switch is from a pg with a 55% TS% to one with a 51% TS%. And then there is just the natural decline in a player like Korver who went from a 70% TS% to a 58% TS% last year, and just got a year older and most likely less open looks.

I think it is the perfect storm for a fall in production and a natural fall in value due to contracts coupling to make a big jump down and at the trade deadline people talking about Milsap as worth a 10th pick and similar to what Teague just got.

[HartfordWhalers]

For my big riser, I'm going with TJ Warren.

If you are looking for a big riser, I'm looking at getting someone ideally coming into his third year. Thats the area where a guy is still young and not so old that they are what they are and a breakout is really unlikely; but also not so potential filled like a rookie where it is baked into their value.

Not tons of production yet, but decent numbers per minute. Could double in minutes and be top 5 vote getter for MIP, even with no actual skill set improvement and some regression on his 3 point shooting percentage.

[Andre Roberstan]

For my big riser, I'm going with TJ Warren.

If you are looking for a big riser, I'm looking at getting someone ideally coming into his third ear. Thats the area where a guy is still young and not so old that they are what they are and a breakout is really unlikely; but also not so potential filled like a rookie where it is baked into their value.

Not tons of production yet, but decent numbers per minute. Could double in minutes and be top 5 vote getter for MIP, even with no actual skill set improvement and some regression on his 3 point shooting percentage.

Warren's a good one. Gary Harris could take a leap too.

[Smitty731]

2. Monta Ellis - He should be a scoring guard off the bench. He's not a very good with Teague. I think his value will plummet. Unless the Pacers do bring him off the bench. Then I take back what I just wrote.

Can his value really plummet? I mean most people seem to have him as a negative the minute he signed his contract and it's much more cap friendly now along with being a year shorter. And I personally think the fit thing is a bit overblown. He did fine not handling the ball last year (contrary to popular belief Hill did handle it a lot and obviously PG did as well) and while the SL needs more shooting, it's not like we have any Tony Allens in there clogging the paint (Turner being a good shooter helps tremendously).

If he starts, I think he'll look awful and it will cause teams to question if he can even play at all.

And Teague will probably have the ball a lot more than Hill did.

I just wish they would bring him off the bench. Miles would be better as a starter who can just spot up off George and Teague.

[pacers33granger]

2. Monta Ellis - He should be a scoring guard off the bench. He's not a very good with Teague. I think his value will plummet. Unless the Pacers do bring him off the bench. Then I take back what I just wrote.

Can his value really plummet? I mean most people seem to have him as a negative the minute he signed his contract and it's much more cap friendly now along with being a year shorter. And I personally think the fit thing is a bit overblown. He did fine not handling the ball last year (contrary to popular belief Hill did handle it a lot and obviously PG did as well) and while the SL needs more shooting, it's not like we have any Tony Allens in there clogging the paint (Turner being a good shooter helps tremendously).

If he starts, I think he'll look awful and it will cause teams to question if he can even play at all.

And Teague will probably have the ball a lot more than Hill did.

I just wish they would bring him off the bench. Miles would be better as a starter who can just spot up off George and Teague.

Yeah he'd be much better off the bench (though it'd be worse playing him alongside Stuckey). It's too early to know what Mcmillan is thinking with all the roster turnover, but I think we could see that.

Overall though, I just don't see his value getting worse outside of an injury or a major dropoff in production (not totally out of the question, but I think unlikely). Which speaks more to how low his value is right now than anything.

[jayjaysee]

Higher - Josh Richardson, Exum/Burks, Capela.. And for fun - Mozgov... One of Jrue or Reke should beast considering both are in contract years, but I think it will be Jrue.

Richardson will breakout imo, a lot more possessions open with the losses Miami has had and he can flat shoot - will be annoying hearing the hype imo.. Exum/Burks will be healthy and look great with no pressure at all - yes I'm grouping them. Capela out of default. And Mozgov because of how negative it is right now, he just needs to be decent for everyone to change their opinion on him.

Lower -

Ryno and Marvin - sames.
One of Biyombo/Vooch and one of Gortat/Ian - can't play em together. To pick; Biyombo and Gortat drop value. Vuc is still one of the very best shooting big men in the league and Ibaka and him should fit perfectly.
Porzingis - a lot of new faces and I think the Knicks will be better than most people are saying they will. But, I don't think KP will be why. I think he is good, may become really good, but people treat him like he is already really good - and I just don't. Think his value will drop after another "just good" year.

[Patsfan1081]

If Marcus Smart doesn't show something by the trade deadline, I think you've got to wonder whether he's anything other than a poor man's Beverly who can't bully ball in the NBA like he did in college.

I don't think anyone sees him as more than a defensive specialist even now.

I can't see how you can really label any player after only their second year in the league, he has a very good chance in having his value decreasing but he also has a chance of it increasing. He shot 33% his rookie season behind the arc, I don't think it would be hard to believe he could shoot 35/36 and be an average offensive player his third season in the league, especially with Turner gone. His problem now is he takes too many threes and it brings his efficiency down, even if he doesn't become a good outside shooter he could still attempt to abandon the three. Same with Payton, we see a lot of guys take a jump their junior season and neither team brought in anyone that could take their minutes away this season. I think Payton can excel in other areas of his game.