Predict the # of Wins next year (July Edition)

[MelosSoreWrist]

I'd imagine anything less than 30 would be at the very least worrisome when considering the growth and development of our young guys. If they show considerable defensive improvement, I think perhaps 40 would be our absolute ceiling, otherwise I'm going with 35 wins as a ceiling.

Clarkson is in year 3.

Randle year 3, (or two depending on how you want to slice it).

Russell year 2.

The talent and athleticism is there to compete on a nightly basis, and they are young - long road trips and back to backs shouldn't be as taxing.

I wouldnt worry that much about development if the Lakers keep their pick. That pick might become the biggest asset that could return a superstar.

Pick, Ingram, Russell, Randle, Clarkson, Nance. Thats the order I'd grade the team asset and hope wise. If Randle and Clarkson dont make significant strides, its not as devastating as Ingram flopping. And Russell becomes expendable for a trade if the Lakers sign Westbrook.

[Kilroy]

I think 40 wins are within reach this season... I would be shocked if we were in any kind of position to keep our pick this year.

I'd just like to point out, that's what you said at the beginning of last season. You seem like a rose colored glasses kind of fan. Which is actually great, all fan bases needs more of those fans for support throughout the rough years.

It's easier to say the team's going to suck and we're going to get a top 3 pick... No pressure. So where's the fun in that?
It's not about rose colored glasses to me... It's about not being a an annoying, melodramatic, kill-joy, pain in the ass...

How much fun do you think it is for the posters who are excited about this season and the opportunity to root for their favorite team, to constantly have to hear posters talking about how much we suck and our only hope is to tank? Frankly that attitude makes me want to kick the little emos in the balls... Virtually...

And I'm not sure how you could watch 3 of our young core players matching up against the top talent in the NBA and winning some of the matchups at team USA camp and not get a little hyped?

[MelosSoreWrist]

I think 40 wins are within reach this season... I would be shocked if we were in any kind of position to keep our pick this year.

I'd just like to point out, that's what you said at the beginning of last season. You seem like a rose colored glasses kind of fan. Which is actually great, all fan bases needs more of those fans for support throughout the rough years.

It's easier to say the team's going to suck and we're going to get a top 3 pick... No pressure. So where's the fun in that?
It's not about rose colored glasses to me... It's about not being a an annoying, melodramatic, kill-joy, pain in the ass...

How much fun do you think it is for the posters who are excited about this season and the opportunity to root for their favorite team, to constantly have to hear posters talking about how much we suck and our only hope is to tank? Frankly that attitude makes me want to kick the little emos in the balls... Virtually...

And I'm not sure how you could watch 3 of our young core players matching up against the top talent in the NBA and winning some of the matchups at team USA camp and not get a little hyped?

I remember growing up watching Angels baseball, I didnt have cable back then. I got all my sports news from stu nahan and ed arnold. I used to be pumped up about Wally Joyner and Chuck Finley. I was a superfan. Best pitcher and best position player in baseball! They were nice players, dont get me wrong, but you give me them now in the age of watching Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw everyday....

Russell, Randle and Clarkson can be nice players. But Laker fans grew up on Kareem, Magic, Worthy, Shaq, Kobe. These guys arent them. They are not the best players now, or the best prospects. You have to excuse the fans for not getting overly excited. Competing for the last playoff spot doesnt interest the Laker fans. They are probably a spoiled entitled bunch but it is what it is.

[Mindflayer]

27

[CerebroKinetic]

Alvin Gentry's first year (30-52) could possibly serve as a barometer (admittedly, a loosely calibrated one) for how the Laker's offense might play out in the 2016-17 season.

I'm also curious to see how Luke and his assistant coaches will work with the young team. Does Luke know (and have the experience) to grow a young team (and individual players) over the course of their professional career? How does he plan on handling a player (who over the years) begins to slowly develop an ego to the detriment of the staff, players and organization? Will it be a good move to have hired close acquaintances on his assistant staff as opposed to poaching and hiring the best candidates available?

Not knocking on Luke (I genuinely want to see him do well), but it seems some may admire his coaching career as if it were a glistening cruise ship from afar. I think the true seaworthiness of the ship can often be measured during periods of stormy, turbulent moments, and I'm not sure Luke has either demonstrated that consistently during his coaching career (yes, the Finals loss should help) or has a long track record of coaching knowledge/experience to draw upon in unfamiliar situations.

Think its going to be an interesting 2016-17 season.

[Penberthy]

I think Luke was viewing basketball from a coache's perspective for the majority of his career (observing, learning, wondering what would i do). That doubles or triples his track record/exeperience to draw upon in unfamiliar situations.

[CerebroKinetic]

I think Luke was viewing basketball from a coache's perspective for the majority of his career (observing, learning, wondering what would i do). That doubles or triples his track record/exeperience to draw upon in unfamiliar situations.

That's true and I agree. I think when he was an injured Laker, Phil took him under his wings and gave him time in film room/coaches meeting (correct me if I'm off). I can understand how he could see the game differently through years of observation from a coaching mentality and I think he would have benefited from that a lot (imo).

What I'm just not sure about, is how much of that training (under safe conditions of film room, coach meetings, and his two years with a talented GS squad) will translate under a different setting where he's a true head coach (hot seat; larger accountability; can he make timely, game-changing difficult decisions?) and has to work under different conditions (young players, different career time horizon, mettle to deal with unpredictability?).

His stint as interim coach at GS is a good glimpse, it just would be nice if he were a bit more seasoned prior to actually becoming a head coach (imo); but I'm open and game to see how Luke develops as the season progress.

[AcecardZ]

I'm extremely enthusiastic about our young guys and still feel 25-30 wins is about what we should expect. More would be awesome of course but I don't think fewer should be viewed as some sort of disaster.

Our most talented players are super young and while I expect them to be exciting and entertaining I don't think that will start translating to tons of wins until next season.

If feeling this way makes me some sort of Debbie downer I apologize. I fail to see the point in being overly optimistic about our team's chances.

Next year though if the team isn't near forty wins, 50+ wins if we add an all-star FA, then I would be a little concerned assuming we're not plagued with injuries.

In Durant's second season, when Westbrook was a rookie, the Thunder only won 23 games so I wouldn't get suicidal if this season isn't any better for us.

Another reason I predict an under thirty win season is our new coaching staff. A 7-34 first half could easily be followed by a 20 win second half and if something like that happens I think we have a lot to look forward to.

[Karmaloop]

I've said for a while that I thought we were in the 5-8 range in terms of lottery slots. That'd put us in line for 30 or so wins, which is pretty much what I anticipate. I said this in a thread in the T&T forum, with some numbers behind it.

For the Lakers, just by addition by subtraction the Lakers are getting a head coach that should improve them a few wins alone. I've never seen a head coach who managed to put 95% of his roster in the worst possible situation repeatedly. I mean, you almost have to try and sabotage it (hat tip to the Tank Commander). And by sheer fact that we've no longer got Kobe Bryant shooting the Lakers out of games, that alone should get more opportunities for the other players to improve. At point guard, they're clearly looking for a significant jump out of D'Angelo Russell. I've searched for the best rookie-to-sophomore season jump, and while none fit well I think James Harden-level stats isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Obviously, Russell will get more scoring opportunities, but anything short of a 2 VORP improvement will be a bit of a disappointment for me. And that translates to a ~5 win improvement. If Julius Randle can turn into at least a replacement level player, that's another 2 wins right there. I'm not totally sure what we will get out of Brandon Ingram, but let's assume that's another 1 VORP and when you take the minutes from Nick Young AND Kobe Bryant, that translates to roughly another 5 wins. And I'm not expecting Luol Deng to be as good as he was last year, but I'd imagine he's more productive than Brandon Bass and Metta World Peace even with modest regression. Expecting another ~2 wins with his addition isn't totally crazy. So right there, that's a 14 win improvement. That takes them from 17-65 to 31-51 which isn't a crazy estimation. I've pegged the Lakers as a 30-35 win team next year. Any less it's a disappointment, any more and they exceed expectations.

30 wins should be our O/U. Anymore wins and we likely overachieved or we likely got some unexpected contributions. Any less wins, and I feel like we underachieved.

I think 40 wins are within reach this season... I would be shocked if we were in any kind of position to keep our pick this year.

That would be incredibly optimistic, borderline unreasonable. We won 17 games last year...we aren't going to have a 23ish win swing. That's highly unlikely. I mean, I can't think of a team in recent years that saw that kind of swing without a significant free agent additions.

[dipstick]

I've said for a while that I thought we were in the 5-8 range in terms of lottery slots. That'd put us in line for 30 or so wins, which is pretty much what I anticipate. I said this in a thread in the T&T forum, with some numbers behind it.

For the Lakers, just by addition by subtraction the Lakers are getting a head coach that should improve them a few wins alone. I've never seen a head coach who managed to put 95% of his roster in the worst possible situation repeatedly. I mean, you almost have to try and sabotage it (hat tip to the Tank Commander). And by sheer fact that we've no longer got Kobe Bryant shooting the Lakers out of games, that alone should get more opportunities for the other players to improve. At point guard, they're clearly looking for a significant jump out of D'Angelo Russell. I've searched for the best rookie-to-sophomore season jump, and while none fit well I think James Harden-level stats isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Obviously, Russell will get more scoring opportunities, but anything short of a 2 VORP improvement will be a bit of a disappointment for me. And that translates to a ~5 win improvement. If Julius Randle can turn into at least a replacement level player, that's another 2 wins right there. I'm not totally sure what we will get out of Brandon Ingram, but let's assume that's another 1 VORP and when you take the minutes from Nick Young AND Kobe Bryant, that translates to roughly another 5 wins. And I'm not expecting Luol Deng to be as good as he was last year, but I'd imagine he's more productive than Brandon Bass and Metta World Peace even with modest regression. Expecting another ~2 wins with his addition isn't totally crazy. So right there, that's a 14 win improvement. That takes them from 17-65 to 31-51 which isn't a crazy estimation. I've pegged the Lakers as a 30-35 win team next year. Any less it's a disappointment, any more

I think 40 wins are within reach this season... I would be shocked if we were in any kind of position to keep our pick this year.

That would be incredibly optimistic, borderline unreasonable. We won 17 games last year...we aren't going to have a 23ish win swing. That's highly unlikely. I mean, I can't think of a team in recent years that saw that kind of swing without a significant free agent additions.

I posted this earlier. GSW during the 2011-12 season had 23 wins. In 2012-13 they had 47 wins. No significant FA additions except trading for Bogut the season before but he didn't play due to injury. They also drafted Barnes, Ezili and Draymond. Most of these rookies were not at contributing level yet either.

Not saying it will happen, but if we think our young core can be special, then we should think that it is plausible. Unlikely but plausible.

[Speedlot]

41+ wins. let's go!

[MrWaffles]

Any more than 30 wins would be a true blessing. However, I don't think we get there this year.

People have to be reminded we play in the West... We also have a very young team with no legit Scorers on this team.

[Kentavicius]

27-55

Enviado desde mi GT-I9195 mediante Tapatalk

[Beethoven]

We will get into the playoffs this season.

Some see that as a waste. I see it as a step in the right direction.
Have to make a step towards success.

[danfantastk32]

We will get into the playoffs this season.

Some see that as a waste. I see it as a step in the right direction.
Have to make a step towards success.

Step in right direction? Jeez...that's putting it mildly. If we make the playoffs this year (with what we currently have) I for one will be INCREDIBLY surprised. I don't see it. The guy's are too young still. They will be too inconsistent IMO.

But if they do...that's great news. That means at least 2 of our guys are already turning into really high-level players.

[Beethoven]

I agree. But maybe we will have an incredibly surprising season. Who knows. Time for Lakers magic to arise again.

[Landsberger]

We will get into the playoffs this season.

Some see that as a waste. I see it as a step in the right direction.
Have to make a step towards success.

It would be historic if we made the playoffs. A few teams have gone from very poor seasons to the playoffs but in all the cases their superstar(s) were injured in the poor year only to return to "improve".

We've added a couple of decent Vets. We've subtracted a few vets. We've subtracted the distractions that kept the pressure and focus off the young guys (Kobe and Scott). Overall I'm not sure, other than hope that the youngsters progression is linear, that we've improved at all on paper.

With Walton her and Kobe gone if Russell still isn't cutting it the fans will turn. Last year he had a ton of cover with Kobe's final season and the Scott stuff but the spotlight is now on him on the biggest team in the largest market.

[iamworthy]

Last year we won 17 games:

+10 games for the removal of Hibbert, Kobe and Byron
+10 games for young guns growth and Luke
+3 to 6 games. Possibly the games that can go either way

Im around the 40 wins mark

[Pablo Novi]

I'd just like to point out, that's what you said at the beginning of last season. You seem like a rose colored glasses kind of fan. Which is actually great, all fan bases needs more of those fans for support throughout the rough years.

It's easier to say the team's going to suck and we're going to get a top 3 pick... No pressure. So where's the fun in that?
It's not about rose colored glasses to me... It's about not being a an annoying, melodramatic, kill-joy, pain in the ass...

[SNIP]
Russell, Randle and Clarkson can be nice players. But Laker fans grew up on Kareem, Magic, Worthy, Shaq, Kobe. These guys arent them. They are not the best players now, or the best prospects. You have to excuse the fans for not getting overly excited. Competing for the last playoff spot doesnt interest the Laker fans. They are probably a spoiled entitled bunch but it is what it is.

"Laker fans grew up on Kareem ..." Hey, wait a second there lol. This Lakers fan (1960 onwards) grew up on: West-Baylor * & Wilt, much later on (not to mention endless "instructional" talks by my dad about everything-Mikan).

* Born/raised in New Jersey, the nasty racism I saw up and down the East Coast (especially the South; but in Boston as well where I went to high school and saw a number of C's games at the Gaaaden) stunned me no end. I came to believe that there was no hope for change/improvement. Then along came Baylor-West (bi-racial beautiful harmony & what skill!); and I've been a Laker for the last half-century plus.