Political Roundtable Part IX

[dckingsfan]

I am with Zonk, chanting "lock her up" isn't the direction we should be headed...

BTW, Popper - big donors have often had choice on positions - usually Ambassador to Monaco or the like. I would think this only becomes an issue if they are "meaningful" roles.

[dckingsfan]

Not picking on you Zonk - but we trust the FBI but not our local police.

I don't know what that's supposed to mean. I'm talking about bold lies being chanted by the crowd at the RNC convention, lies intended to justify incarcerating political enemies without due process.

So your statement appears to be a complete non sequitur to me.

It was a non sequitur - and wasn't aimed at you at all. It is just that we seem to be in a mode where we don't trust law enforcement.

We assume they are corrupt and guilty until proven innocent. We don't want to wait for the facts - we just label immediately.

My guess is that the FBI did incredible due diligence before coming to their decision.

[closg00]

Trumpnis getting a post-convention bounce, he leads now in a couple of polls. The convention and debates will be make or break time.

[TGW]

Popper--what you just posted is increadible. The Democratic Party and the DNC are as useless and ridiculous as the Republican Party. I didn't believe that 10 years ago, but now I do.

[montestewart]

Not credible according to who?

According to all the people who heard the official FBI report on Clinton's email debacle and wondered why, with all the official findings, they recommended against prosecution. Seems like something that might have merited a grand jury examination, although not necessarily an indictment.

Regarding him and FBI directors of the past, if you trust them all and find them credible, well, it's a free country.

The FBI director did not file charges against Hillary Clinton because the people in charge of the investigation knew from the very beginning that Hillary was not accused of any criminal activity. She did not intentionally sell secrets to a foreign government, she didn't commit treason, which is punishable by DEATH. She was potentially guilty of administrative malpractice, which would get me a sternly worded reprimand on my permanent record or, at worst, fired.

Don't perpetuate this idiotic idea that Hillary is a criminal and should go to jail. Chanting lies over and over again do not make them true.

Seriously, guys. Our country is in serious danger of falling apart at the seams because of lies like this. You have to stop. If we can throw our political enemies in jail by chanting lies until enough people believe they are true, then, well... the conservatives on this thread have been complaining that the United States is in decline. Do you understand how spreading fascist propaganda accelerates that decline?

I understand if you don't like Hillary Clinton. But this thing about putting Hillary in jail - it's cute as long as it's one of your stupid conservative bubble chamber talking points that never amount to anything because it's so nonsensical. But when you're on the verge of actually electing Big Brother, it's transforms from hilariously illogical buffoonery to Newspeak. Just stop already.

Your position sounds greatly motivated by fear of Trump. If you're saying that Trump represents such a danger that we should not articulate our own views because to do so might lend aid and support to Trump, well, I guess that's a valid point of view.

I'm not in any Republican echo chamber. My suggestion that there might have been reason to present to a grand jury was based on the FBI's published findings and my own reading of the law, but maybe you understand federal law better than I do.

PS: I think it's the prosecutor, not the FBI director, who files charges.

[montestewart]

I wonder what else the Russians are doing to help Trump, will they hack the electronic voting machines?

Based on his past statements, I can't tell if Trump intends to bomb the **** out of the Middle East of pull out of world affairs completely. Putin must love this direction. Make them forget the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, maybe even get European countries to increasingly align with Russia for protection. Putin seemed pretty buddy buddy with Bush too.

"Invading Iraq was the right thing to do, George. Stay the course."
"'Stay the course,' that's good. Thanks, Vladimir. Mind if I use that?"

[dckingsfan]

I think that Putin far prefers the predictable Obama. Don't cross that line or else! He knows that Obama would never go all in.

Look Vladimir - you can have the whole middle east - just wait:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI0DYcHtTlI

[Induveca]

The Democratic Party should just hold up a sign declaring their apparent pride in maintaining an unsecure messaging environment.

Their ridiculous Russian hack claim has prolonged the news cycle. Why the hell would they want that during the DNC?

[nate33]

Nate Silver just updated his predictions model:



A month ago, there was a 10.8% chance of Trump winning. And this from the same guy who grossly underestimated Trump throughout the entire Republican Primary.

[dckingsfan]

Just wait until the Democratic Convention bump... then we will see.

[nate33]

Just wait until the Democratic Convention bump... then we will see.

The DNC convention may result in no bump at all. This DNC email scandal is really pissing off Bernie supporters. They are going to be very reluctant to get out and vote for Hillary.

[Induveca]

Also for anyone who believes the Russian hack claim read this:

http://m.phys.org/news/2015-12-hackers-cyber.html

Then ask yourself if an organization which emailed unencrypted radioactive/sensitive dialogue could identify the source of the hack in 24 hours?

A Russian IP address doesn't mean the hackers were Russian, in reality it means the exact opposite.

[keynote]

Nate Silver just updated his predictions model:



A month ago, there was a 10.8% chance of Trump winning. And this from the same guy who grossly underestimated Trump throughout the entire Republican Primary.

Hmm. I see different #s on his site:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

As of this posting: Hillary's at 53.5% odds; Trump's at 46.5%.

EDIT: ah, what you posted is Silver's "now-cast": what would happen if the election were today. The other link is the forceast re: who would win the election in November. I imagine that the former is more volatile in response to the daily news cycle, but I'm not sure.

[dckingsfan]

Just wait until the Democratic Convention bump... then we will see.

The DNC convention may result in no bump at all. This DNC email scandal is really pissing off Bernie supporters. They are going to be very reluctant to get out and vote for Hillary.

There is almost always a bump... Now, if Hillary pulls out a AK - then all bets are off.

[fishercob]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AthertonKD/status/756991334683148288[/tweet]

Not that I expect most to give a sh*t, but these "heroic" WikiLeakers appear to vile anti-semites. Hooray!

[Induveca]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AthertonKD/status/756991334683148288[/tweet]

Not that I expect most to give a sh*t, but these "heroic" WikiLeakers appear to vile anti-semites. Hooray!

Ha! I expect to see something like this from a CNN talking head later:

"The real issue here is sensitive American information has been stolen by Russian intelligence.....and delivered to a racist anti-American propaganda publication."

Double up on the deflection, it might be enough for people to forget the actual contents of the leak. Not sure if that's hilarious or depressing.

[fishercob]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshgreenman/status/757570772219138048[/tweet]

[nate33]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AthertonKD/status/756991334683148288[/tweet]

Not that I expect most to give a sh*t, but these "heroic" WikiLeakers appear to vile anti-semites. Hooray!

Yeah, we must all hate WikiLeaks and ignore their findings because antisemitism. But we should ignore the DNC plotting to discredit Bernie Sanders because he's not sufficiently Jewish.

In another email from early May, DNC CFO Brad Marshall appears to write about a plan to question Sanders’s religion.

The email does not name the Vermont senator, but it talks about a man of “Jewish heritage” Marshall believes to be an atheist. It makes reference to voters in Kentucky and West Virginia, two states that were holding upcoming primary elections.

“It might may no difference, but for KY and WVA can we get someone to ask his belief. Does he believe in a God. He had skated on saying he has a Jewish heritage. I think I read he is an atheist. This could make several points difference with my peeps. My Southern Baptist peeps would draw a big difference between a Jew and an atheist,” the email says.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/288900-leaked-dnc-emails-reveal-secret-plans-to-take-on-sanders

[closg00]

Romney was up on Obama post-convention and was supposed to win.

Whoever did the hack, the intention is to harm the Democrats clearly. God knows what Trumps internal emails would look like considering their re-tweets from neo Nazis.

I will follow Nate Silver closely though

[closg00]

Election betting odds has 66.9% betting on a Clinton win. The tracker is updated every 5 minutes.
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/about.html