caliban wrote:caliban ReviewIntro:
The overall goal for the Heat this summer (outside of the Durant pipedream) was to stay as competitive as possible in 16-17 while holding off on long term contracts until the next free agency class is on the table. This is also the lens I’ll evaluate the Heat’s offseason trough. The 2017 class is stronger on talent and in combination with less available cap space around the association this does look like the right road to walk for a team in the Heat’s situation (cap crunch, old vets on their later legs), not only in terms of where the team stands today but also in maximising the chances of improvements in the future. These terms gave the Heat two main objects to achieve going in to this summer, 1) no 2 year or longer contracts while staying as competitive as possible in 16-17 for attractiveness to the upcoming FA-class and 2) as always, try to not lose and identify the right players going forward while keeping as much flexibility as conceivable. No doubt this was a tall task, especially in the overheated market of 2016. Let’s see how Riley and Andy did trough this lens.
Key Losses:Wade: Losing The franchise hero, how can you not go full emo when the reason you fell in love with the game just walked out the door? You can’t, so I’ll focus on Wade’s on court production and his current state as a contributing basketball player in the twilight of a fantastic HOF career.
The question I think needs to be answered is; ‘Is Wade’s production worth 2 years, $47.5 million at his point?’ Wade was a
net negative during the 15/16 season, and numbers adjusted for
opponents and teammate’s strength tells the same story and has done so for a while now, Wade's impact on the game is dwindling. Wade’s is still able to put up individual counting stats, they just do not help an average NBA team much at this point. Offensively this is mainly due to a steadily worse shooting percentage in combination with a decreasing capability to get to the line. The defence is also obviously not there anymore over 30 minutes of basketball and that is not someone you want to pay that size of a contract to.
But shot creation, there’s additional value in that and he was borderline fantastic in the playoffs!? Shot creation definitely has some underrated value especially in the playoffs and playoff shot making will always be Wade's everlasting legacy but even with the solid playoff run he had this year, the LINK on off numbers tells the same story as they did in the regular season and that story is negative. Wade does not have the efficiency to be a no1 or no2 usage player anymore, it happens to everyone and a contract I the one year 15M range would be preferable for player of Wade’s current grade of impact. Heat wants to play team ball from start to finish; Wade wants to be the man in the 4th. Heat wants to play high pace ball; Wade wants to slow it down. For the contract Wade found acceptable it was time for the Heat to move on, so the Heat moved on.
Option A) Keep Wade with his dubious production along with a massive contract; No bunting => significantly less chance at a whale next summer due to the same cap crunch predicament the team was in this summer. Even worse depth pieces now to strive for somewhat competitiveness. Still couldn’t keep Deng, J. Johnson and would have to dump McRoberts as well.
Option B) Push Wade away as smoothly as possible (it was not smooth at all) and upsetting most of the fan base while doing so while bunting this summer to improve the chances in the next FA-class + do what you can with the cap room left from Wade’s absence.
Got to say that Riley remained steady in achieving the overall goal stated in the intro for the off season and not even the fan hero seemed to make him blink while I do believe most GM’s would have buckled in a similar scenario. From an on court perspective I 100% think Option B was the right move for the Heat at this point. A cold move, but the right move. On the negative side I’d say that it could and should have been going down much smoother (if pushing a player of Wade’s stature and persona ever can be friction free), and also move along at a faster pace. It did drag a day or two too long which possibly might have made the Heat miss on someone better of the short term pieces they ended up with, even though I do have a hard time keying in on which player willing to take a small one year deal was off the table at this point in the FA-process.
Deng: Biggest loss in term of on court production. Loul didn’t really get going until Bosh went down and moved to the 4 which no doubt is his ideal position at this stage of his career. From that moment he was back to the plus minus stud he’s been his entire career. Can’t say enough good things about the guy but once that contract was offered there were just no chance of him coming back. He seemed to be an excellent teacher for the young guys, Deng will be missed on and off the court next season.
Joe Johnson: What a difference 24 games can makes. He looked completely done in Brooklyn and he sure got a nice return on that money from Utah. Well played by Johnson, and a two year contract offer from the Heat was never an option and nothing the organisation would consider. He helped the team win late in the regular season but I’d argue it had a stronger correlation with the move of Loul to the 4 that locked up a stale Wade/Bosh centric offence than the arrival of Johnson per se. Didn’t show up in the playoff where he’s legs once again looked about done, ultimately not a player to commit to in the Heat current state.
Losses:Gerald Green: Started of the season alright with an on ball task on defence that he managed to pull off quite well. After a bizarre incident that ended with a hospital visit G. Green reverted to his old self. It was ugly.
Amar'e Stoudemire: That pick and roll defence. Managed to hold it together somewhat during the regular season when given time but Statue vs. Kemba in the Playoffs? O’boy, Spoelstra had to play Haslem over him for the Heat to survive.
Dorell Wright: Late season pick up. Did not play
Draft:Owed pick because D. Wade, L. James & C. Bosh wanted a 6th year on their contracts in 2010. The price you have to pay.
Trades:Cash and a New Orleans Pelicans second-rounder back to the Pelicans for Luke Babbitt.
Babbit has gotten 800 minutes a year over the last two seasons so this pickup likely is something that most shoulder shrug at and probably rightfully so. Riley said in the presser, and the numbers do somewhat support that it is possible that there might be an underutilised end of rotation player in Babbit especially considering his skillset and fit in contrast to the other 3-4’s on the roster in J. Winslow and J. Johnson who don’t have the dead eye long ball but can cover for Babbit defensively. Fills a need, solid fit & good price.
Free Agency:Hassan Whiteside 4/98.4
There’s been a long debate on this site about whether or not Hassan was going to be worth his max contract. It still will be, but the naysayers slowly dwindled with every improvement he made and in the end the
defence was better with him on the floor and he did finish at the top on Nylon Calculus
Rim Protection Section. His pick and roll game with G. Dragic did take more time than ideal but it got there and it’s reasonable to think that there’s still some overall impact for Hassan to grow into given his still limited NBA experience. Sure there’s risk that Hassan doesn’t live up to the contract but it is a relatively small max and there’s no doubt to me that I’d rather see the Heat with Hassan on the books than without. And for that money I rather have Whiteside than...
Timofey Mozgov: 4 years, $64 million with Lakers
Al Horford: 4 years, $113 million with the Celtics
Joakim Noah: 4 years, $72 million with Knicks
Bismack Biyombo: 4 years, $72 million with Magic
Ian Mahinmi: 4 years, $64 million with the Wizards
Dwight Howard: 3 years, $70 million with Hawks
especially looking at the later years in some of the contracts handed out. Hassan was the no1 priority for the Heat at the start of free agency and the Heat kept him. Ideally you want him at say 20 per, but losing a talent like that is never an option and keeping him is a clear success compared to the alternative.
Tyler Johnson 4/50 Arenas contract matched
Who got that money? Outrageous! Let’s start with total sum of money, 12,5M per with an average starter salary of about 15-16M or so going forward. Has Johnson played ball at that level already? LINK Just about with a
,4 BPM and ,113 ws48, but there’s no reason that I can see to think that he will regress, as a matter of fact it’s more likely that he will improve and grow into a contract of 12,5M quite nicely.
But the structure will totally be hampering the Heat in two consecutive summers!? Definitely, this contract no doubt puts a big dent in the off season shopping budget and will hamper Riley quite a bit. Not good, but a renegotiation after the 3rd year is possible if the Heat operates under the tax and the structure does actually help the organisation next summer with it’s very low cap hold for the 2nd year. Let just say that there are a lot of eggs in the summer17 basket for the Heat.
Considering all this, I think it was the right choice to match, but barely, just barely. I’d rather see a team keeping their talent and figure it out as they go, than a team losing it without any return be that return in on court production and/or future trade.
Wayne Ellington 2/12.3 (second year ung)
A delay according to the goal, but Ellington does fit around the skillset of the current guards in G. Dragic, Richardson, Johnson & Weber. System defence and 3’s, while obviously not a needle mover. I’m okay with this.
Derrick Williams 4.6m.
A delay according to the goal, however Williams is not a good player and also a dubious fit in every aspect except possibly fast break basketball which the Heat must to be really committed to for this signing to make any sense at all. Spoelstra has worked borderline miracles on the defensive end with Beasley, Statue & Green to at least get them on the court and it looks like another season of Spo
earning that coaching pay check. It should be noted though that this is quite far into the FA and there not really a lost opportunity to sing someone else in Williams place.
James Johnson 4m
A delay according to the goal and I’ve always been a J. Johnson fan for some reason. James can take on the best opposing wings when Winslow sits and is definitely a PF in Spoelstra’s system, possibly even a 3rd string C, no joking. I’m mostly curious about the minute distribution between L. Jonson and D. Williams for the reason that stats always has hated Williams but pictured Johnson as a solid underutilised piece, and I’ve almost never seen Spoelstra disagree with these numbers. I like this signing even though it has little to no future upside outside of checking off the boxes for the Heat this off season as previously mentioned.
Udonis Haslem 4m
A make good deal to the soul of the franchise, between Haslem and Howard the rest of the roster will behave. I like it.
Willie Reed 2/2.1m (po in 2nd year)
Definitely would have been preferable to have a Team Option on the second year on this deal. I think Reed can contribute as a backup Center in the NBA and the organisation already has a relation with Reed after last year’s Summer League where the Nets snagged him in front of an at the time handcuffed Heat organisation. Brooklyn sure likes to go after them Heat gems, time to get their own scouting and development department going
Current Depth Chart: PG: Goran Dragic, Briante Weber
SG: Josh Richardson , Tyler Johnson, Wayne Ellington
SF: Justise Winslow, James Johnson, Okaro White
PF: Chris Bosh, Derrick Williams, Josh McRoberts, Luke Babbitt
C: Hassan Whiteside, Willie Reed, Udonis Haslem
This is the rotation I see on opening night. If no Bosh, then substitute him with McRoberts. Tyler as the 3rd guard and 6th man, the Heat need him on the floor at all times Dragic takes a seat. Are the young guys ready to fly?
Needs: 1) While T. Johnson has shown some ability to initiate offense off the dribble and run the pick and roll with Whiteside, the team is way too Dragic dependent in terms of offensive creation => Need; shot creator on the perimeter. The best fit and most cost efficient solution is probably at back-up point-guard.
2)A healthy Bosh along with a new Amnesty clause in the next CBA if/when he goes down again or safety for the Tyler Johnson contract.
Additional Thoughts:
Between a rock (Lakers) and a hard place (Bucks).
Now we know that the Heat avoided the Lakers scenario with an over payment of a fallen star, but that doesn’t mean the Heat made it through the wood. The question the roster now has to answer is if they can avoid the Bucks scenario after they shredded too much veteran production and experience (in this case Wade, Deng, Johnson and only one could have been kept) without the young players being ready to shoulder the production and responsibility full time.
If the Heat made the right moves I think what the organisation is aiming- and hoping for is 80% of what Portland managed to pull off after L. Aldridge left them; the perceived star on the team leaving and most people writing them off as dead in the water. This is a difficult task to pull off for this roster but in a best case scenario, not an impossible one. We’ll see.
The backup plan is to roll out the tank after 30 or so games in a season where the organisation has the pick at hand. The reason why this isn’t the immediate option for Heat is best understood when looking at the history of the franchise as an indicator of what road previously has been the one to walk. The biggest factor for the organizational success has been free agents and/or impact player’s willingness to be traded to and play in Miami, for the Heat. This is by any mean not a given in the future but I think we can conclude after the latest free agencies that weather and income taxes isn’t enough, you at least need a somewhat competitive team to pitch as well. For the Heat, history has shown that option A is to compete 1st and 2nd and then you tank.
Projected Win/Loss: I made a middle ground projection with half a Bosh for this write up. Whether he’s out or fully in it this season should on average be about 3-4 wins up or down accordingly. However, if he’s out, the rotation is rail thin without the Bosh and very susceptible for an injury and a tank is then possibly in sight.
7th seed. 42-43 wins 
Off-Season Grade: Can a team who lost 2,5 starters with no adequate replacements have a good off season while simultaneously dealing with a possible career ending medical condition to the best and highest payed player on the roster? No, you can’t, but you can do the very best of the situation you’re in and I think the Heat did come close to that. Minus for missing on Durant, an empty hand is an empty hand. And also the Wade debacle for the reason that it was dragging out and possibly leading to the team missing on a better piece than what ended up on the roster.
B+ 
